About this team I know:
They're a good team; some might say a great team who have played really well down the stretch, so are picked by some to win it all this year.
On paper they have a really good, deep defense corps that seems among the best in the league, and a fast group of forwards with 3 lines that can all score. 2 goalies, both of whom look like they could stand tall for a deep run.
This team's above-average qualities are:
- has a top-10 PK
- balanced scoring - ten players with 10 or more goals, and two more with 9; three with more than 20
Hmm, ok, that doesn't seem like much. But what if this team, despite looking really strong in all areas had the following concerns:
- generates shots around the league average
- suppresses shots around the league average
- is one of the worst faceoff teams in the league
- has a bottom-10 PP
- is bottom-10 in offensive zone starts
- generates scoring chances at a similar rate to teams like Columbus and Phoenix (outside of top 10)
- suppresses scoring chances at a similar rate to teams like Winnipeg and Tampa Bay (barely top 10)
They also had a healthy dose of luck along the way:
- ranked in the top-5 for shooting percentage and save percentage (all numbers score-adjusted at even strength) to finish with the highest PDO in the league just ahead of these other teams that should also praise Allah: Montreal, Colorado and Calgary.
- had one of the more fortunate seasons in terms of injuries, 1-goal game wins and OT game wins
This team, in the last month of the season, actually got worse in all areas of Corsi% and Scoring Chance% listed above, yet went 12-5 thanks to even more abnormally high shooting and save percentages. As a consequence, their stock is riding high.
Where do you think this team would finish in the standings, and if they made the playoffs how deep would you expect them to go?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if they were playing against a team that, in comparing it to the one above, has:
- also balanced scoring, contrary to perceptions - 9 players with 10 or more goals, and 4 with more than 20
- a top-3 PK
Then in the advanced/enhanced stats category, this team:
- is top-10 in shot-attempts generated
- is top-5 in shot attempts suppressed
- is bottom-10 in faceoffs
- has a top-10 PP
- is top-5 in offensive zone starts
- is top 10 in scoring chances generated
- is almost identical to the team above in suppressing scoring chances
In other words, ranked the same or higher, sometimes significantly so, in ever category listed above.
However, this team didn't have an overly lucky season, they were pretty average:
- middle of the pack for both shooting and save percentages for an average PDO
- had a few tough injuries, but overall were a little luckier than the average team
This team, in the last month of the season, cratered according to many pundits, and almost missed the playoffs entirely amid injury problems, cap problems and talk of dressing room strife. They won only 5 of their last 16 games, one in a shootout. But did they go in the tank and play like garbage? The stats say no. In their last month they had a better Corsi%, much better Scoring Chance% and the best Zone starts% in the league by a mile. So what happened? Their shooting% (worst in the league) tanked at the same time as their save percentage (6th worst), giving them the worst PDO in the league (by a decent margin) for the last month. Guess what other teams were near them at the bottom? San Jose and Boston, who also recorded shooting percentages below 6% for the month (for those that don't know, even strength shooting% has been shown to be, at least team-wide, hugely luck-driven, and it always regresses to the mean eventually). Sidebar - guess who had the best shooting for the month? Columbus (remember their improbable winning streak?) and Calgary (oh, you thought they made the playoffs because of their tenacity and truculence? C'mon...)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright, it's time for bed and this wall of text is way too long for anyone to bother reading, but I still haven't made my point. I think if you've made it anywhere close to reading everything you know that the team on top is the Rangers and the team on the bottom is the Penguins. I don't really like either team as a fan, and wish they could both lose in the first round, but one has to get through haha. And I absolutely get most of the arguments everyone is making for why and how the Rangers will crush the Penguins in the first round - and they absolutely might - but most of the arguments being made are arguments that the public makes, and I can't see any value on the Rangers. Yes, the Penguins APPEAR to be in disarray, and yes, they did have to dress 5 D for some games down the stretch due to their injury problems. Losing Letang is absolutely significant, and Malkin is clearly not 100%, and those are just the obvious big-name injuries. But despite those problems (which were present for a lot of if not the entire last month of the season) the Penguins still played bloody well, they just got really, really unlucky.
Make whatever bets you want, and if you like the Rangers at -200 or worse, fill your boots. I have to concede that there are a lot of really good cappers on here backing the Rangers, so I should probably just stfu before I look really dumb when the Pens get swept haha. Although to be honest, that's why I looked into these 2 teams in the first place - I never understood the Ranger hype when I watched them play and wanted to see if the numbers backed them up.
I just think there's a hell of a lot more value on the dog here, and there are better "sure things" than the Rangers in this series. Remember how the Penguins were going to crush Columbus last year? They were even heavier favourites than the Rangers are this year. Well, they did come out winners, but that series could have gone either way, with all 6 games 1-goal games in the final minute, and 2 going to OT. It's the playoffs - crazy stuff happens and goalies get hot.
Think about this one thing though - if you were to think of 1 team whose stock is the highest entering the playoffs who would it be? And conversely, which team's stock is the lowest? Somewhere in that equation is EV/value.
Fade or follow it makes no difference to me - I'm just trying to provide some information that runs contradictory to the mainstream out there, since I think that's how we all make money.
Comments always welcome, even if it's GB2 telling me I'm a fucking idiot and the Rangers are going all the way babyyyyyy!!!
They're a good team; some might say a great team who have played really well down the stretch, so are picked by some to win it all this year.
On paper they have a really good, deep defense corps that seems among the best in the league, and a fast group of forwards with 3 lines that can all score. 2 goalies, both of whom look like they could stand tall for a deep run.
This team's above-average qualities are:
- has a top-10 PK
- balanced scoring - ten players with 10 or more goals, and two more with 9; three with more than 20
Hmm, ok, that doesn't seem like much. But what if this team, despite looking really strong in all areas had the following concerns:
- generates shots around the league average
- suppresses shots around the league average
- is one of the worst faceoff teams in the league
- has a bottom-10 PP
- is bottom-10 in offensive zone starts
- generates scoring chances at a similar rate to teams like Columbus and Phoenix (outside of top 10)
- suppresses scoring chances at a similar rate to teams like Winnipeg and Tampa Bay (barely top 10)
They also had a healthy dose of luck along the way:
- ranked in the top-5 for shooting percentage and save percentage (all numbers score-adjusted at even strength) to finish with the highest PDO in the league just ahead of these other teams that should also praise Allah: Montreal, Colorado and Calgary.
- had one of the more fortunate seasons in terms of injuries, 1-goal game wins and OT game wins
This team, in the last month of the season, actually got worse in all areas of Corsi% and Scoring Chance% listed above, yet went 12-5 thanks to even more abnormally high shooting and save percentages. As a consequence, their stock is riding high.
Where do you think this team would finish in the standings, and if they made the playoffs how deep would you expect them to go?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What if they were playing against a team that, in comparing it to the one above, has:
- also balanced scoring, contrary to perceptions - 9 players with 10 or more goals, and 4 with more than 20
- a top-3 PK
Then in the advanced/enhanced stats category, this team:
- is top-10 in shot-attempts generated
- is top-5 in shot attempts suppressed
- is bottom-10 in faceoffs
- has a top-10 PP
- is top-5 in offensive zone starts
- is top 10 in scoring chances generated
- is almost identical to the team above in suppressing scoring chances
In other words, ranked the same or higher, sometimes significantly so, in ever category listed above.
However, this team didn't have an overly lucky season, they were pretty average:
- middle of the pack for both shooting and save percentages for an average PDO
- had a few tough injuries, but overall were a little luckier than the average team
This team, in the last month of the season, cratered according to many pundits, and almost missed the playoffs entirely amid injury problems, cap problems and talk of dressing room strife. They won only 5 of their last 16 games, one in a shootout. But did they go in the tank and play like garbage? The stats say no. In their last month they had a better Corsi%, much better Scoring Chance% and the best Zone starts% in the league by a mile. So what happened? Their shooting% (worst in the league) tanked at the same time as their save percentage (6th worst), giving them the worst PDO in the league (by a decent margin) for the last month. Guess what other teams were near them at the bottom? San Jose and Boston, who also recorded shooting percentages below 6% for the month (for those that don't know, even strength shooting% has been shown to be, at least team-wide, hugely luck-driven, and it always regresses to the mean eventually). Sidebar - guess who had the best shooting for the month? Columbus (remember their improbable winning streak?) and Calgary (oh, you thought they made the playoffs because of their tenacity and truculence? C'mon...)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright, it's time for bed and this wall of text is way too long for anyone to bother reading, but I still haven't made my point. I think if you've made it anywhere close to reading everything you know that the team on top is the Rangers and the team on the bottom is the Penguins. I don't really like either team as a fan, and wish they could both lose in the first round, but one has to get through haha. And I absolutely get most of the arguments everyone is making for why and how the Rangers will crush the Penguins in the first round - and they absolutely might - but most of the arguments being made are arguments that the public makes, and I can't see any value on the Rangers. Yes, the Penguins APPEAR to be in disarray, and yes, they did have to dress 5 D for some games down the stretch due to their injury problems. Losing Letang is absolutely significant, and Malkin is clearly not 100%, and those are just the obvious big-name injuries. But despite those problems (which were present for a lot of if not the entire last month of the season) the Penguins still played bloody well, they just got really, really unlucky.
Make whatever bets you want, and if you like the Rangers at -200 or worse, fill your boots. I have to concede that there are a lot of really good cappers on here backing the Rangers, so I should probably just stfu before I look really dumb when the Pens get swept haha. Although to be honest, that's why I looked into these 2 teams in the first place - I never understood the Ranger hype when I watched them play and wanted to see if the numbers backed them up.
I just think there's a hell of a lot more value on the dog here, and there are better "sure things" than the Rangers in this series. Remember how the Penguins were going to crush Columbus last year? They were even heavier favourites than the Rangers are this year. Well, they did come out winners, but that series could have gone either way, with all 6 games 1-goal games in the final minute, and 2 going to OT. It's the playoffs - crazy stuff happens and goalies get hot.
Think about this one thing though - if you were to think of 1 team whose stock is the highest entering the playoffs who would it be? And conversely, which team's stock is the lowest? Somewhere in that equation is EV/value.
Fade or follow it makes no difference to me - I'm just trying to provide some information that runs contradictory to the mainstream out there, since I think that's how we all make money.
Comments always welcome, even if it's GB2 telling me I'm a fucking idiot and the Rangers are going all the way babyyyyyy!!!
