[h=1]Would LeBron's 'Super Friends' squad beat the Warriors in a series?[/h]Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the defending champion Golden State Warriors making history in their pursuit of the NBA's best regular-season record, LeBron James might be thinking about how he can beat the Warriors if a healthy Cleveland Cavaliersteam is unable to do so. Could LeBron reclaim the title with a little help from his super friends?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In a story published earlier this week, James told Bleacher Report he'd like to team up with friends Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul at some point, along with former Miami Heat teammate Dwyane Wade.
"I really hope that, before our career is over, we can all play together. ... At least one, maybe one or two seasons -- me, Melo, D-Wade, CP -- we can get a year in," James said. "I would actually take a pay cut to do that."
If James is thinking sooner rather than later, could such a team -- let's call themthe Banana Boats -- contend with Golden State next season?
[h=2]Projecting a 'Super Friends' team[/h]While Anthony said "somewhere warm" would be a better destination for joining forces with James & Co. down the road when the four future Hall of Famers are nearing retirement, such a team would most easily be built now in Cleveland.
The Cavaliers could realistically swap Kevin Love for Anthony, possibly as part of a long-rumored three-team trade sending Love to the Boston Celtics with young talent and draft picks going to the New York Knicks for Anthony. Meanwhile, a Paul-Kyrie Irving swap would make sense for the Clippers if Paul used his ability to leave as a free agent in the summer of 2017 as leverage to force them into a trade.
In this hypothetical, only Wade would have to sacrifice financially. (He'd have to sign for the Cavaliers' taxpayer midlevel exception, worth $3.5 million.) And the super friends would join an intact Cleveland roster that would feature Tristan Thompsonas a fifth starter with J.R. Smith,Iman Shumpert and Channing Fryeoff the bench. The Cavaliers would still have the ability to re-sign free agents Matthew Dellavedova andTimofey Mozgov to fill out the rotation.
Projections using the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and an aging factor suggest such a roster could be expected to win 62 games in 2016-17 with an offensive rating 7.5 points better per 100 possessions than league average (this year's Cleveland team is 4.5 points better per 100 possessions) and a defensive rating 1.3 points better per 100 possessions than league average (slightly worse than the Cavaliers' plus-1.5 rating in 2015-16).
[h=2]Comparison to Warriors projections[/h]While it's an improvement on this year's Cavaliers' pace, 62 wins might not sound so impressive. After all, Golden State already has 64 wins this season with 11 games left to play.
Keep in mind, however, that projection systems are designed to be conservative to account for the possibility of injuries or unexpected regression. So the Warriors' 2016-17 RPM projection is for 63 wins, presuming the team re-signs free agents Leandro Barbosa, Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush and brings back an identical rotation.
More than the regular season, though, what we're interested in is how the Banana Boats might match up with Golden State in the NBA Finals, when both teams could give more minutes to their star players and Cleveland probably would go small to match up. Here's how I project those minutes distributions might look:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Warriors' Real Plus-Minus</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside><aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Cavaliers' Real Plus-Minus</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody></aside>In a possible 2017 Finals, RPM estimates a healthy Warriors squad would be 12.3 points better per 100 possessions than an average team. With all their stars, the Cavaliers would project even better on offense but 11.2 points better than average overall. We'd expect Golden State to win such a series a little more than 60 percent of the time with home-court advantage, though Cleveland would be a slight favorite if it could somehow snag Game 7 at home.
[h=2]Perils of projecting superteams[/h]As we've learned from James' past jumps from one team to another, projecting his new team isn't quite as easy as adding up individual player ratings. In particular, the need to share a single basketball creates issues.
Even as close friends in Miami, James and Wade were an uneasy alliance on the court because both operate best with the ball in their hands. By the end of James' time in South Beach, the Heat were a better team with James running the show and Wade on the bench. As he ages, Wade makes even less sense from a basketball standpoint alongside so many other stars.
Paul would need to adapt too. He's used to constantly directing the Clippers' offense. According to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, only Damian Lillard(8.4 minutes per game) has had more time of possession with the basketball per game this season than Paul (8.3).
Based on that figure, Paul has the ball in his hands almost exactly half the time the Clippers are on offense. By contrast, Irving's time of possession suggests he has the ball barely a third of the time when the Cavaliers are on offense, with James possessing it more than a quarter of the time.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Anthony, Paul and Wade are good enough, and smart enough, to figure things out but there would surely be an adjustment period -- a problem for a team whose core players would all be in their 30s. Because of their age, the super friends would almost certainly have their best shot at a championship in their first season together. A slow start to the season might prevent them from making a run at home-court advantage.
Ultimately, even four Hall of Famers teaming up on the back nine of their careers probably wouldn't be enough to knock the Warriors off their perch.
But if this season's Cavaliers fall short, the Banana Boats might be James' best shot at another ring.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the defending champion Golden State Warriors making history in their pursuit of the NBA's best regular-season record, LeBron James might be thinking about how he can beat the Warriors if a healthy Cleveland Cavaliersteam is unable to do so. Could LeBron reclaim the title with a little help from his super friends?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
In a story published earlier this week, James told Bleacher Report he'd like to team up with friends Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul at some point, along with former Miami Heat teammate Dwyane Wade.
"I really hope that, before our career is over, we can all play together. ... At least one, maybe one or two seasons -- me, Melo, D-Wade, CP -- we can get a year in," James said. "I would actually take a pay cut to do that."
If James is thinking sooner rather than later, could such a team -- let's call themthe Banana Boats -- contend with Golden State next season?
[h=2]Projecting a 'Super Friends' team[/h]While Anthony said "somewhere warm" would be a better destination for joining forces with James & Co. down the road when the four future Hall of Famers are nearing retirement, such a team would most easily be built now in Cleveland.
The Cavaliers could realistically swap Kevin Love for Anthony, possibly as part of a long-rumored three-team trade sending Love to the Boston Celtics with young talent and draft picks going to the New York Knicks for Anthony. Meanwhile, a Paul-Kyrie Irving swap would make sense for the Clippers if Paul used his ability to leave as a free agent in the summer of 2017 as leverage to force them into a trade.
In this hypothetical, only Wade would have to sacrifice financially. (He'd have to sign for the Cavaliers' taxpayer midlevel exception, worth $3.5 million.) And the super friends would join an intact Cleveland roster that would feature Tristan Thompsonas a fifth starter with J.R. Smith,Iman Shumpert and Channing Fryeoff the bench. The Cavaliers would still have the ability to re-sign free agents Matthew Dellavedova andTimofey Mozgov to fill out the rotation.
Projections using the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and an aging factor suggest such a roster could be expected to win 62 games in 2016-17 with an offensive rating 7.5 points better per 100 possessions than league average (this year's Cleveland team is 4.5 points better per 100 possessions) and a defensive rating 1.3 points better per 100 possessions than league average (slightly worse than the Cavaliers' plus-1.5 rating in 2015-16).
[h=2]Comparison to Warriors projections[/h]While it's an improvement on this year's Cavaliers' pace, 62 wins might not sound so impressive. After all, Golden State already has 64 wins this season with 11 games left to play.
Keep in mind, however, that projection systems are designed to be conservative to account for the possibility of injuries or unexpected regression. So the Warriors' 2016-17 RPM projection is for 63 wins, presuming the team re-signs free agents Leandro Barbosa, Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush and brings back an identical rotation.
More than the regular season, though, what we're interested in is how the Banana Boats might match up with Golden State in the NBA Finals, when both teams could give more minutes to their star players and Cleveland probably would go small to match up. Here's how I project those minutes distributions might look:
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| PLAYER | MIN | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 40 | 5.7 | 1.1 |
| Klay Thompson | 36 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| Andre Iguodala | 36 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Draymond Green | 35 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Harrison Barnes | 32 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Shaun Livingston | 20 | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| Festus Ezeli | 15 | -0.7 | 1.8 |
| Leandro Barbosa | 11 | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| Andrew Bogut | 10 | -2.2 | 3.7 |
| Marreese Speights | 5 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Total | 240 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Warriors' Real Plus-Minus</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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</tbody>
| PLAYER | MIN | OFFENSE | DEFENSE |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 42 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 38 | 2.3 | -0.9 |
| Chris Paul | 37 | 4.5 | 1.3 |
| Dwyane Wade | 30 | -0.1 | -1.6 |
| Tristan Thompson | 25 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| J.R. Smith | 20 | 1.0 | -1.1 |
| Iman Shumpert | 20 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 13 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Channing Frye | 10 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Timofey Mozgov | 5 | -1.8 | 1.7 |
| Total | 240 | 9.7 | 1.5 |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Cavaliers' Real Plus-Minus</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=2]Perils of projecting superteams[/h]As we've learned from James' past jumps from one team to another, projecting his new team isn't quite as easy as adding up individual player ratings. In particular, the need to share a single basketball creates issues.
Even as close friends in Miami, James and Wade were an uneasy alliance on the court because both operate best with the ball in their hands. By the end of James' time in South Beach, the Heat were a better team with James running the show and Wade on the bench. As he ages, Wade makes even less sense from a basketball standpoint alongside so many other stars.
Paul would need to adapt too. He's used to constantly directing the Clippers' offense. According to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, only Damian Lillard(8.4 minutes per game) has had more time of possession with the basketball per game this season than Paul (8.3).
Based on that figure, Paul has the ball in his hands almost exactly half the time the Clippers are on offense. By contrast, Irving's time of possession suggests he has the ball barely a third of the time when the Cavaliers are on offense, with James possessing it more than a quarter of the time.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Anthony, Paul and Wade are good enough, and smart enough, to figure things out but there would surely be an adjustment period -- a problem for a team whose core players would all be in their 30s. Because of their age, the super friends would almost certainly have their best shot at a championship in their first season together. A slow start to the season might prevent them from making a run at home-court advantage.
Ultimately, even four Hall of Famers teaming up on the back nine of their careers probably wouldn't be enough to knock the Warriors off their perch.
But if this season's Cavaliers fall short, the Banana Boats might be James' best shot at another ring.
