Leafs Get Their Phil

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http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=291601

If this goes through, and I can't believe Burke hasn't come this far without being able to sign Kessel to whatever he wants, the Leafs get a run at the post season and the Bruins re-stock for the future.

I like Kessel and think he's a genuine offensive talent but I think there are very few players worth giving up 2 1st rounders and a second round. I certainly don't think Kessel is one of them. Some day when we look back on what the Bruins eventualy get with those picks this trade will look worse than Raycroft for Rask.

In today's salary capped NHL your most important asset is the draft.
 

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...and for the counter to my belief David Johnson over at hockeyanalysis.com makes a compelling argument.


Finally, how good are those first round likely to be. Burke has every hope to make the playoffs this upcoming season and I am sure he would show some level of truculence to me if I suggested that the Leafs would miss the playoffs in 2009-10 and 2010-11, but lets assume a worst case scenario and they do and lets assume that both the draft picks end up in the 8th to 12th overall range. How might those draft picks turn out. Lets look at past drafts 8-12 picks.

1998: Mark Bell, Mike Rupp, Nik Antropov, Jeff Hereema, Alex Tanguay
1999: Taylor Pyatt, Jamie Lundmark, Bransilav Menzei, Oleg Saprykin, Denis Shvidki
2000: Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev, Alexei Smirnov
2001: Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn, Fredrik Sjostrom, Dan Hamhuis
2002: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom, Keith Ballard, Steve Eminger

So that is 5 years of drafts for a total of 25 players and maybe there are a couple of pairings in there among Tanguay, Leclaire, Bouchard, Ballard, Ruutu, Hamhuis and Antropov that might be worth more than Kessel but none of those players will make you regret making the trade, especially if you believe that Kessel can be a top level offensive player in the NHL capable of consistently getting 30-40 goals. And if the Leafs were better and made the playoffs in either or both of the next two seasons the likelihood of regretting the trade drops off even more. Yeah, I understand that every draft seems to produce a star player or two in the 12-25 overall range like Parise (17) and Getzlaf (19) in 2002 but those are rare and more often than not the drafted player turns out to be nothing more than a name on a sheet of paper.
 

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Vic, don't you think it's a little co-incidental that he ONLY looked up to 2002? I mean, if you look all the way until 2005 or 2006, there are some significant impact players in the 8-12 overall range. Writing about the #8-12 picks in the 1998-2002 drafts is like one of those situational baseball stats that makes you laugh.

The fact is that Burke has overpaid again, largely because of how low a value he places on draft picks. This addition of Kessel will help, but I don't think he's a big enough difference maker to put the Leafs in the playoffs. I will give Burke some credit, because he has a terrible draft history, and would have likely wasted these picks.

But one question remains... can Kessel fight? He better be able to!
 

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Vic, don't you think it's a little co-incidental that he ONLY looked up to 2002? I mean, if you look all the way until 2005 or 2006, there are some significant impact players in the 8-12 overall range. Writing about the #8-12 picks in the 1998-2002 drafts is like one of those situational baseball stats that makes you laugh.

The fact is that Burke has overpaid again, largely because of how low a value he places on draft picks. This addition of Kessel will help, but I don't think he's a big enough difference maker to put the Leafs in the playoffs. I will give Burke some credit, because he has a terrible draft history, and would have likely wasted these picks.

But one question remains... can Kessel fight? He better be able to!

Great point PTB...I thought the same thing regarding the limited sampling by David Johnson. This is why he stopped in 2002.

2003
8th Braydon Coburn
9th Dion Phaneuf
10th Andrei Kostitsyn
11th Jeff Carter
12th Hugh Hessiman
 

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1997 doesn't do wonders for his argument either, as Marian Hossa, Nick Boynton & Sergei Samsonov all taken in the 8-12 spots.
 

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i do like Kessel, but wow that is a lot of your future you just mortgaged to get him. Burkie gave up way too much in my opinion, he must of been getting desperate to add some offence.
 

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Boston Herald Article regarding trade.

WILMINGTON - Bruins players were predicting yesterday afternoon that the Phil Kessel affair would be resolved, one way or another, within a day or two.

As it turned out, it was just a few hours.

1f0d792808_Kessel_09102009.JPG


Phil Kessel celebrates a goal against Les Habitants.

Late last night the Bruins announced they had dealt the rights to their oddly reluctant free agent right winger to the Toronto Maple Leafs for a pair of first-round picks (2010 and 2011) and a second-rounder (2010).
Kessel reportedly then signed a five-year deal worth $27 million with the Maple Leafs.

With the Leafs clearly in rebuilding mode, and a longshot to make the playoffs this season, the picks should have good value.

More details of the deal will be revealed at a Garden press conference this morning, but as the 21-year-old potential superstar sniper departs after three seasons as a Bruin, many fans may fall back on the old “Bruins being cheap” refrain.

Sorry, folks, but that simply was not the case.

The Bruins hoped to have Kessel flying up and down their right side for years to come, and made the restricted free agent a sizable offer, likely worth at least $4 million a year - which would have represented a rather nice raise from last year’s $850,000.

Even in this era of ridiculous second contracts messing up salary structures across the NHL, it was a lucrative offer.

It was Kessel, according to multiple sources in and around the B’s room, who was determined to leave, and has planned this move since last season.

Why? Well, even players who know him well and confirmed that he did not want to play again for the Bruins, aren’t exactly sure. Likely it was that he didn’t like playing for Claude Julien, a tough and demanding coach who embraces the quaint idea that every player, even the stars, has to give an honest and responsible effort, nightly and at both ends of the rink.

The truth was that a youngster like Kessel should have welcomed the chance to play for Julien, who only tried to make him a better all-around player.

Or maybe he didn’t like the press and fan interest in Boston. On a personal level, Kessel has a lot of maturing to do. He remains a shy kid, uncomfortable at times with even mundane social interactions.

If he thinks changing teams will make everything better, he needs to contemplate the axiom, “The grass is not always greener on the other wide of the fence.”

Toronto longed seemed his likely destination. Kessel now has the privilege of playing in a city where hockey is more a passionate religion than mere sport; with fans presuming he’ll be an automatic 50-goal-scoring savior and anything less will be seen as failure; for a coach, Ron Wilson, who can be mean, sarcastic and nasty; and a GM, Burke, who can be as intimidating as anyone in the league.

Good luck, Phil. You may be in for an unpleasant surprise or two.
Burke, with a team that will be bigger and more feisty but still lacks scoring, had made it no secret he wanted to get Kessel.

He and Chiarelli had deep discussions about trades, dating back to midseason last year. It seemed if a trade had not occurred, Burke might have signed Kessel to an offer sheet.

Burke has stated publicly that offer sheets are a valid and reasonable tool in the CBA, one that teams have every right to use. Had it come to that, and if Chiarelli did match the offer, he would have had to dump a veteran to clear salary to pay Kessel. That was far from an ideal outcome, so Chiarelli took the best deal available - even if meant dealing Kessel to a team in the B’s division.

Kessel got a heck of a deal financially. But it seems obvious what would have been the best outcome for him: Take the offer from the B’s and stay right where he was. It’s unfortunate that won’t happen, maybe for Kessel most of all.

Boston Herald..
 

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...and for the counter to my belief David Johnson over at hockeyanalysis.com makes a compelling argument.


Finally, how good are those first round likely to be. Burke has every hope to make the playoffs this upcoming season and I am sure he would show some level of truculence to me if I suggested that the Leafs would miss the playoffs in 2009-10 and 2010-11, but lets assume a worst case scenario and they do and lets assume that both the draft picks end up in the 8th to 12th overall range. How might those draft picks turn out. Lets look at past drafts 8-12 picks.

1998: Mark Bell, Mike Rupp, Nik Antropov, Jeff Hereema, Alex Tanguay
1999: Taylor Pyatt, Jamie Lundmark, Bransilav Menzei, Oleg Saprykin, Denis Shvidki
2000: Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev, Alexei Smirnov
2001: Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn, Fredrik Sjostrom, Dan Hamhuis
2002: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom, Keith Ballard, Steve Eminger

So that is 5 years of drafts for a total of 25 players and maybe there are a couple of pairings in there among Tanguay, Leclaire, Bouchard, Ballard, Ruutu, Hamhuis and Antropov that might be worth more than Kessel but none of those players will make you regret making the trade, especially if you believe that Kessel can be a top level offensive player in the NHL capable of consistently getting 30-40 goals. And if the Leafs were better and made the playoffs in either or both of the next two seasons the likelihood of regretting the trade drops off even more. Yeah, I understand that every draft seems to produce a star player or two in the 12-25 overall range like Parise (17) and Getzlaf (19) in 2002 but those are rare and more often than not the drafted player turns out to be nothing more than a name on a sheet of paper.



I think that was awful selective drafts he chose as well. But any way you look at it the draft is nothing but a crapshoot. In Kessel he got a bonified 23 year old goal scorer that's got better every years so far and that's something the Leafs need to make the playoffs this season. Which is his goal. Burke's slowly [no wait]....very quickly building the Leafs into a team that can compete with just about any team in the league on any given night. Arguably the greatest coach of all time, Scotty Bowman never put much stock in high draft picks either and you'll find very few who question his brilliance and record. Burke's not a scout. He has a team put together to do that for him. If his draft record in the past wasn't stellar....that information came from his scouts...not him. It's he who ultimatly pulls the trigger, but on the advice of his scouting team. And why in the world would Kessel need to fight??? He's being brought in to score goals and produce offensivly. The stable of thugs Burke already has on board with handle that duty. The wild card in this whole deal is Kessel's health. He's already had a bout with cancer and another with mono. The Leafs D is stocked and he's already looking to trade Kaberle and he will no doubt bring at least a 1st rounder in return. Likely more. I'm so impressed by what Burke's been able to acomplish so far....he's turned me into a Leaf fan. Fuck those loser Red Wings....I'm a Leaf and Flyer fan this season. [jk] of course. But both will be entertaining teams to watch this season.

Take a look at the Leafs previous draft picks....go back as far as you like. Not since Wendel Clark in 85' or Tie Domi in 87' is there a pick in there that will have as much impact that Kessel is expected to produce.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008490.html
That 22 to 25 YEARS of poor drafting since they've acquired someone equal to Kessel's potential.

Burke's going to build this team into a winner by any means necessary. Draft Smaft! And Nasam Kadri is going to be an impact player as well. He had a beautiful goal the other night already.

It won't be this year or even next....but Burke's going to make this team a contender sooner than anyone before him in a very long time.
 

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From Kevin Allen of the usa today.

When the Toronto Maple Leafs hired general manager Brian Burke last season, they knew they were hiring a man who moves the earth with a bulldozer, not a shovel.
Friday's acquisitiion of Phil Kessel is an indication why the Maple Leafs were willing to pay Burke $3 million per season to be their commander-in-chief.
He makes things happen.
Not everyone likes Burke's blustery personality, or his affinity for hockey fights. But it's difficult not to admire the passion and aggressiveness he brings to work every day.
The re-structuring of the Maple Leafs isn't going to happen over night, but Burke is making moves as if he expects it to happen next season. With the transactions he has made this summer, it seems to me he has at least made the Leafs a playoff team. Right now I would project them in the fourth through sixth spot in the Eastern Conference.
Although some fans seem to believe Burke over-paid with two first-round pick and a second to the Bruins and $27 million over five years to Kessel, but it it could be an under payment if Kessel starts to consistently score 35+ goals per season. He scored 36 last season and he's only 21. He has the potential to be a 50-goal scorer. He looks like a player on the way to stardom.
Let's not forget that Kessel was the fifth overall pick in the talent-rich 2006 draft.
My belief is that the Maple Leafs will be picking in the second half of the first round over the next two seasons, and you don't usually find jet-quick scorers like Kessel at that point in the draft.
Burke told me Saturday morning that he felt comfortable giving up the picks because of the young talent the team has added in the last year, highlighted by goalie Jonas Gustavsson and center Nazem Kadri.
Certainly no one knows for sure whether the Kessel deal will work out for Burke. He expects Kessel to significantly improve the team's power play and help the Leafs in the shootout. Perhaps Kessel won't realize his potential.
But what should please Toronto fans is the forceful way Burke went about securing Kessel. He went public with his desire for Kessel and he put the steps in place necessary to accomplish that mission, including re-acquiring his second-round pick from to let the Bruins know he intended to give Kessel an offer-sheet if the Bruins didn't trade Kessel to him. He set-up the marketplace to the point that he was Boston's best trade option.
A Maple Leafs general manager probably hasn't acted with this much bully power since Conn Smythe was running the franchise years ago.
 

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From Kevin Allen of the usa today.

When the Toronto Maple Leafs hired general manager Brian Burke last season, they knew they were hiring a man who moves the earth with a bulldozer, not a shovel.
Friday's acquisitiion of Phil Kessel is an indication why the Maple Leafs were willing to pay Burke $3 million per season to be their commander-in-chief.
He makes things happen.
Not everyone likes Burke's blustery personality, or his affinity for hockey fights. But it's difficult not to admire the passion and aggressiveness he brings to work every day.
The re-structuring of the Maple Leafs isn't going to happen over night, but Burke is making moves as if he expects it to happen next season. With the transactions he has made this summer, it seems to me he has at least made the Leafs a playoff team. Right now I would project them in the fourth through sixth spot in the Eastern Conference.
Although some fans seem to believe Burke over-paid with two first-round pick and a second to the Bruins and $27 million over five years to Kessel, but it it could be an under payment if Kessel starts to consistently score 35+ goals per season. He scored 36 last season and he's only 21. He has the potential to be a 50-goal scorer. He looks like a player on the way to stardom.
Let's not forget that Kessel was the fifth overall pick in the talent-rich 2006 draft.
My belief is that the Maple Leafs will be picking in the second half of the first round over the next two seasons, and you don't usually find jet-quick scorers like Kessel at that point in the draft.
Burke told me Saturday morning that he felt comfortable giving up the picks because of the young talent the team has added in the last year, highlighted by goalie Jonas Gustavsson and center Nazem Kadri.
Certainly no one knows for sure whether the Kessel deal will work out for Burke. He expects Kessel to significantly improve the team's power play and help the Leafs in the shootout. Perhaps Kessel won't realize his potential.
But what should please Toronto fans is the forceful way Burke went about securing Kessel. He went public with his desire for Kessel and he put the steps in place necessary to accomplish that mission, including re-acquiring his second-round pick from to let the Bruins know he intended to give Kessel an offer-sheet if the Bruins didn't trade Kessel to him. He set-up the marketplace to the point that he was Boston's best trade option.
A Maple Leafs general manager probably hasn't acted with this much bully power since Conn Smythe was running the franchise years ago.

Man, I wish you were a bookie. Time to stop listening to the Fan 590.
Leafs won't make the playoffs... I mean, who are the Leafs going to displace? How are they better than some of the improved non-playoff teams like Tampa Bay & Ottawa?

I'm shocked Burke was so adamant about making an offer sheet... seeing as how he wept for days and stopped talking to Kevin Lowe a few years ago.
 

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Burke's going to build this team into a winner by any means necessary. Draft Smaft! And Nasam Kadri is going to be an impact player as well. He had a beautiful goal the other night already.

...and how did they aquire Kadri?


...and he has been very impressive in the two pre-season games I've seen him in.
 

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Leafs won't make the playoffs... I mean, who are the Leafs going to displace? How are they better than some of the improved non-playoff teams like Tampa Bay & Ottawa?



I wouldn't be shocked to see them displace the Rangers, Candians, or the Hurricanes who all made the post season last year. There is too much parity in this league to surprise any of us of anything.

To illustrate my point I checked their schedule from last year. Toronto lost 31 of their first 47 games and still finished only 12 pionts behind Montreal for the last spot.

I'm not saying Kessel is the key stone of this franchise but if he can net 30+ when he returns in November it'll greatly help their chances.
 

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I wouldn't be shocked to see them displace the Rangers, Candians, or the Hurricanes who all made the post season last year. There is too much parity in this league to surprise any of us of anything.

To illustrate my point I checked their schedule from last year. Toronto lost 31 of their first 47 games and still finished only 12 pionts behind Montreal for the last spot.

I'm not saying Kessel is the key stone of this franchise but if he can net 30+ when he returns in November it'll greatly help their chances.

Take all 5 of the teams... Rangers, Habs, Canadiens, Sens, Lightning. Basically, for the Leafs to make the playoffs, they have to finish ahead of three of them. I find that a bit difficult to believe...

Sure, Toronto has spent a lot of money on defence, but what do they have up front? Next to nothing. What did Kessel have to work with last year? Only the 2nd best scoring team in the NHL. This is a Leafs team that is basically replacing Antropov with Kessel, who is better, younger, and faster... but is he enough of an upgrade to put this team into the playoffs?

If anything, this team's fate depends on one of Kulemin, Bozak, or Tlusty putting up 25-30 goals & 65-70 points. I have my doubts about that. If none of them really emerge, oppositions will have a feast keying on Kessel, who was one of many weapons on the Bruins last year. I'm also giving the Leafs the benefit of the doubt by calling Jason Blake a top line forward.

I think 12 points back of the final playoff spot (in the new NHL) is a huge difference. I'd prefer to say that the Leafs finished with the 4th lowest win total in the NHL (and the 4th worst goal differencial) :)
 

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Man, I wish you were a bookie. Time to stop listening to the Fan 590.
Leafs won't make the playoffs... I mean, who are the Leafs going to displace? How are they better than some of the improved non-playoff teams like Tampa Bay & Ottawa?

I'm shocked Burke was so adamant about making an offer sheet... seeing as how he wept for days and stopped talking to Kevin Lowe a few years ago.



I don't listen to the fan 590 at all. At least in a very long time anyways. For the Leafs to win the kessler trade he must stay healthy. For the Leafs to make the playoffs the're going to need to get some better than average play out of their goaltending. You can make the playoffs in this league with very good defence and above average goaltending. Leafs may not have a lot of big name NHL stars but their going to be difficult to play against each and every night with what he's put together so far.

So you evidently thought that was a bright move by Lowe to make a beloted offer to a yet, unestablished young player. How'd that work out for him and the team?


Kevin Lowe is in my opinion has no business running an NHL hockey club. Please explain to me why in the world he has a job in the front office with his credentials? He was a very good NHL defenceman. That's evidently enough in Edmonton to keep a front office job by taking one team in 9 seasons to the finals in a very weak year. They couldn't even beat Carolina. He missed the playoff completely in 5 of the seasons and never even won a series in the other 3. In Detroit....we refer to that as not having a clue. In Edmonton...they promote him to team president. LOL. He's followed up 8 out of 9 seasons of failure by hiring a coach the game has past him by many, many years ago.

I understand your dislike for him though as he wasn't able to produce a winner while he was running your club. According to him his hands were tied moneywise from the Orca people. He then went to Anaheim and won a cup. Not a team he built by any means...but he made all the right moves when he got there and didn't drop the ball. And I have no doubt in my mind he'll build a winner in Toronto. Something no other GM has been able to do since 1967!



1999-2000 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 32 26 16 8 0 88.00 0.537 226 212 1344 Kevin Lowe Lost in round 1
2000-01 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 39 28 12 3 0 93.00 0.567 243 222 1287 Craig MacTavish Lost in round 1
2001-02 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 38 28 12 4 0 92.00 0.561 205 182 1267 Craig MacTavish Out of Playoffs
2002-03 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 36 26 11 9 0 92.00 0.561 231 230 1203 Craig MacTavish Lost in round 1
2003-04 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 36 29 12 5 0 89.00 0.543 221 208 1220 Craig MacTavish Out of Playoffs
2005-06 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 41 28 0 4 9 95.00 0.579 256 251 1204 Craig MacTavish Lost in Finals
2006-07 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 32 43 0 4 3 71.00 0.433 195 248 1285 Craig MacTavish Out of Playoffs
2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 41 35 0 2 4 88.00 0.537 235 251 1175 Craig MacTavish Out of Playoffs
2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL Northwest 82 38 35 0 5 4 85.00 0.518 234 248 1247 Craig MacTavish Out if playoffs
 

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I don't see where their offense was the issue last year or should be this year. Despite being void of any big names at forward they still managed to score 250, (ranked 10th in the league). In truth I do feel the same as you about Blake but no matter who wears the uniform the goals will come. Even if it comes by commitee.

Their real issue for Toronto was GA and if Toskala is healthy this year, can be the goalie Toronto believes he would be...if Gustavsson can become the second coming of Steve Mason....well a bunch of ifs. But you get my meaning.

12 points is alot to miss from the playoff picture but if they had just played .500 in those opening 47 games last year they would have been in the post season. My point is for all the warts Toronto showed last year, despite being the 30th ranked defensive team in the NHL they still came within 6 wins of making the playoffs. With any improvment on their GA this year they could. Anything can happen in today's NHL.
 

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I don't see where their offense was the issue last year or should be this year. Despite being void of any big names at forward they still managed to score 250, (ranked 10th in the league). In truth I do feel the same as you about Blake but no matter who wears the uniform the goals will come. Even if it comes by commitee.

Their real issue for Toronto was GA and if Toskala is healthy this year, can be the goalie Toronto believes he would be...if Gustavsson can become the second coming of Steve Mason....well a bunch of ifs. But you get my meaning.

12 points is alot to miss from the playoff picture but if they had just played .500 in those opening 47 games last year they would have been in the post season. My point is for all the warts Toronto showed last year, despite being the 30th ranked defensive team in the NHL they still came within 6 wins of making the playoffs. With any improvment on their GA this year they could. Anything can happen in today's NHL.

That's true, anything could happen. And I mean, if the Leafs did make the playoffs, it wouldn't really be a gigantic shock. That Northeast division is going to be a blood bath... anyone could finish anywhere... although Boston will probably be in the top 2.
 

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So you evidently thought that was a bright move by Lowe to make a beloted offer to a yet, unestablished young player. How'd that work out for him and the team?

What do you think Burke was going to offer Kessel, a 4 year deal worth $2 million per season? Look what Boston got in return for Kessel... two 1sts & a 2nd rounder... do you know what that equates to in RFA offers? That means that Toronto would have needed to offer $6,026,868 - $7,533,584 per season to Kessel to pay that kind of scratch in compensation. Anything less than that would have only been a 1st/2nd/3rd as compensation.
 

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