Laying One Run

[SqueezePlay]

I would like to thank the person in this forum that said he routinely lays one run on the Run Line, rather than the traditional 1.5 runs. My handicapping for Wednesday resulted in my thinking Cleveland should kill Colorado. With the Money Line making a mediocre Indian club expensive, I looked to the Run Line. Thinking over what I read here, I went with Cleveland -1.0. The game went extra innings because Sabathia was horrible. Cleveland won by one run and I pushed.

One game proves absolutely nothing. But laying 1.0 is an attractive option when you are looking at a team that is offense challenged. The bottom line is that this forum opened my eyes to considering all my options. There are times where the -1.5 may still be the appropriate play.

THANKS!

 

[curt]

You are welcome Squeeze play. I played a team favored by 1.5 runs only once in my time. It wasn't even a bet but it was in the handicapping contest. Needless to say,my team won by 1. I will NEVER play a team favored by 1.5 runs. That is just me. I know others disagree. Good luck in all your plays!

 

[SSI]

the (+ Juice) on the -1.5 runs, sometimes makes it a very attractive option.. ill even lay -2.5 at times.. do some back-testing and see how it fares...

 

[Gary_Philly]

There's a clear trade-off. Since you need to win by 2 runs anyway to win the -1 bet. You do get the push protection, but you are "paying" more on the games where your teams loses outright. I'd like to see some data that compares the different options. Another thing to consider is that some teams just play a lot more 1 run games than others. So that may be something you might want to factor in also.

BOL
GP

 

[maidenguy]

Gary, I have a formula to project each teams chances of being in 1 run games. For example Arizona by my method should be in 28.7 games decided by 1 run. I have done this for all teams but don't exactly know how this can be used to bet the runline.I asked this question a few days ago but got no responses. The team projected as of now to be in the most 1 run games are the Houston Astros with a 31.5. These figures change though as the season progresses.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

I use the -1 run line frequently. Yes, you do get some pushes from time to time but you save some much jucie on losses.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I rarely play the 1.5. I play the -1 all the time,and I have had countless pushes which would have been outright loses. I will take the tradeoff for the push everytime.

 

[GoHogsAR]

One out of every three times the home team has won this year they have won by exactly one run.

 

[maidenguy]

Chop, you still have to take into account the extra profit when the lay 1/1/2 wins over the lay 1. Detriot was at +180 in the latter and around +125 in the one run line so playing $100 there was $55 more profit laying the 1 1/2. There will be many times the HT will win by one but hopefully the better payoffs for the 1 1/2 line will make up for those pesky one run wins.

 

[SqueezePlay]

Home Team by One

GoHogsAR, I think you are so right about the HOME team. Nothing feels much worse than laying -1.5 in extra innings with the HOME team. It's a simple matter of fact that once the game gets to the bottom of the ninth tied, the -1.5 is likely to LOSE OUTRIGHT. And also, if the home team leads by one going into the ninth, the chances of covering -1.5 are nearly ZERO.

And when are you most likely to look at the Run Line? When the home team has the superior pitching and/or record. That's when the Money Line is most likely to be -200 and up.

 

[Doug]

Play ML and RL, you get a -1 line ( net result) for a cheaper price.

 

[Doug]

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?p=1977816#post1977816

 

[edub69]

Gary, I have a formula to project each teams chances of being in 1 run games. For example Arizona by my method should be in 28.7 games decided by 1 run. I have done this for all teams but don't exactly know how this can be used to bet the runline.I asked this question a few days ago but got no responses. The team projected as of now to be in the most 1 run games are the Houston Astros with a 31.5. These figures change though as the season progresses.

What do your figures say about the Nationals and the White Sox - I think both of those teams have already been in more than 20 one run games and it's only mid June.

 

[SqueezePlay]

Good Stuff

Play ML and RL, you get a -1 line ( net result) for a cheaper price.

Good stuff, DougJ. Never thought of that. It also brings up the importance of getting the best possible line whenever possible. Hey, 3% is 3%.

 

[Doug]

It's almost always better than -1 line. Not my idea originally. It lets you shop around too, and get best ML and best RL, but works just using Pinny.

 

[maidenguy]

Edub, I have Wash. at 31.0% and CWS at 30.9%. I have 12 out of the 32 teams playing in the 30's.

 

[Tulsa]

Play ML and RL, you get a -1 line ( net result) for a cheaper price.

It is cheaper! Great stuff DougJ!! thanks. tulsa