Late line movement on Colts: tricky

[chonce]

I am a little surprised. To me it seems as though the line could've been as high as 5.5 and the public would still have taken the Colts. I assumed that 1) sharp money was keeping the book honest, and 2) the book was gonna take on some risk and bet on Cinci.


Had the line stayed at 3 or 3.5 (it is now up to 4 or 4.5) I would have been eager to bet on the Bengals, and happily side with the books. The question is, have the sharps made a late play on Indy, or is this the Green injury factor -- and yet, even more public money?

I am still leaning heavily on Cinci, but the line movement is giving me pause.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

What did it open at? 4 right? And its at 4 now.

 

[THEDIRTYHUSTLER]

What did it open at? 4 right? And its at 4 now.

I was gonna say the line hasn't moves much at all and it isn't exactly late yet.

 

[Cantpickem]

Early line movement brought the line down from -4 to -3. public seems to be putting the $$ on Indy. Joe's perception is raising the line.
POINT SPREADS

TIME

CIN

IND

01/04 07:54 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
01/04 07:49 AM	+3½ -105	-3½ -115
01/04 07:06 AM	+3½ -110	-3½ -110
01/04 06:49 AM	+3½ -113	-3½ -107
01/03 09:52 AM	+3 +110	-3 -130
01/02 12:43 PM	+3 +105	-3 -125
12/31 03:06 PM	+3 +100	-3 -120
12/30 01:05 PM	+3½ -115	-3½ -105
12/30 12:39 PM	+3½ -110	-3½ -110
12/30 12:30 PM	+4 -115	-4 -105
12/30 10:15 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
12/30 06:20 AM	+4 -115	-4 -105
12/29 09:49 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
12/29 09:45 AM	+4 -115	-4 -105

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Early line movement brought the line down from -4 to -3. public seems to be putting the $$ on Indy. Joe's perception is raising the line.
POINT SPREADS

TIME

CIN

IND

01/04 07:54 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
01/04 07:49 AM	+3½ -105	-3½ -115
01/04 07:06 AM	+3½ -110	-3½ -110
01/04 06:49 AM	+3½ -113	-3½ -107
01/03 09:52 AM	+3 +110	-3 -130
01/02 12:43 PM	+3 +105	-3 -125
12/31 03:06 PM	+3 +100	-3 -120
12/30 01:05 PM	+3½ -115	-3½ -105
12/30 12:39 PM	+3½ -110	-3½ -110
12/30 12:30 PM	+4 -115	-4 -105
12/30 10:15 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
12/30 06:20 AM	+4 -115	-4 -105
12/29 09:49 AM	+4 -110	-4 -110
12/29 09:45 AM	+4 -115	-4 -105

Thank u

 

[Cantpickem]

Thank u

sure. are you on Cinn or Indy today? BOL with what you take today

 

[chonce]

Well, the line was 3 not long ago. I woke up to 4.5. I am hearing it is public money, as wiseguys are on Cin.

 

[hardcorecap]

On Indi here myself. Curious what makes you so confident in the Bengals here in this spot, on the road with pressure on them? Respect your take, but I hear everyone who is on the Bengals talk about the weaknesses of Indi, but not a lot of what Cinci can do to win. GL

 

[chonce]

Hardcore: I am not oozing confidence or anything, I just think there is value to the play. Cinci is full of flaws. The Colts could cover -- I could argue either side, honestly. Here is what I wrote on my post and why I favor Cinci. As I told the Computer Group, betting on Dalton and Lewis in the playoffs requires me to “hold my nose and bet”

Bengals + 4.5

Cinci is the better running team, the better defense and has been playing way better. I will admit, I underestimated the impact of the loss of Bell on the Steelers, but I think Green is less of a loss, since Dalton sometimes spend half the game trying to satiate him with targets and it makes him sloppy.

The late line movement scares me, admittedly, but I hear the public is something like 8-1 in favor of the Colts. Makes sense -- Andrew Luck has been clutch and has won playoff games. I think Coach Lewis and Dalton are dolts. But sometimes it seems there is money to be made on dolts.

...

Another thought: Has anyone watched the Colts lately? They are a product of a weak division and have a good record, in part because they win SU (but lose ATS often) against bad teams: Texans, Titans, Browns etc... When played a decent running team, like Dallas, the game was over by halftime. Luck is great -- he could very well win this one himself. But I am not betting on it, because the rest of the roster is weaker than people realize. If the Colts have a good game, it will be the first one they have had since November, if my memory serves.

 

[Cantpickem]

I don't think Cinn will put Dalton in a position to make very many decisions. Look for a running game from Cinn. Indy will continue to pass with Luck.
GL to all

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

sure. are you on Cinn or Indy today? BOL with what you take today

Betting the bengals here soon. Will post in my thread. Gl man

 

[awnp]

Line movement aside, it's tough to beat someone back to back... especially after a shutout. Cincinnati has to be due at some point in the playoffs.