Hey Dante,
Just popped in becuase I'm really starting to hate my job and all its related BS.....anyway
Don't do it with 7, not enough games land on the 7 to make it worth your while. I did some on the 3's last year, and my advise is to do it on all the games if you are going to do it at all. I'm sure someone has the stats, but I believe 33-37% of games landed on the 3.
Good luck my friend
Just popped in becuase I'm really starting to hate my job and all its related BS.....anyway
Don't do it with 7, not enough games land on the 7 to make it worth your while. I did some on the 3's last year, and my advise is to do it on all the games if you are going to do it at all. I'm sure someone has the stats, but I believe 33-37% of games landed on the 3.
Good luck my friend
Dante,
GOOD TOPIC...
Two of my buddies called me yesterday who were hanging out together on a cruise...
One happened to be a bookmaker, whereas the other happened to be more of a "square."
They asked me what the line was showing on the majority of offshore sports books.
I told them that the line was Washington minus 3 EVEN or Washington minus 2 minus $1.20...
I recommended to the "Square" that he pay the 20 cents difference to give him a greater chance of winning and that mathematically speaking, this was correct...
Oddly enough, the bookmaker decided to go with 3 Even!!
I loved the fact that the game landed on 3 so that the "square" could win but the old school bookmaker only tied...
THE SHRINK
GOOD TOPIC...
Two of my buddies called me yesterday who were hanging out together on a cruise...
One happened to be a bookmaker, whereas the other happened to be more of a "square."
They asked me what the line was showing on the majority of offshore sports books.
I told them that the line was Washington minus 3 EVEN or Washington minus 2 minus $1.20...
I recommended to the "Square" that he pay the 20 cents difference to give him a greater chance of winning and that mathematically speaking, this was correct...
Oddly enough, the bookmaker decided to go with 3 Even!!
I loved the fact that the game landed on 3 so that the "square" could win but the old school bookmaker only tied...
THE SHRINK
If I really like a game in the NFL, I will buy offf the 3 on both teams and hope it lands on the 3. Last night was a perfect game to do that but we have a huge swell down here 5-6 ft waves and I was a little whooped after the 5 hr. surf session! In other words I did not play it, surf before gambling!
I have a unique formula that I have worked on for the last 10 years that I think is as good as any in predicting what the chances are of a game falling on the number in the NFL. I just completed my figures for the upcoming 2003 season.
Given that there would be 10,000 games this year that a team would be favored by 3 points, that favorite would win the game by exactly 3 points in 979 of those games. So in essence, I am saying that a 3 point favorite as the PROBABILITY of winning by exactly 3 points 9.79% of the time this year.
You can rest assured that I have put in extensive research and tons of variables to arrive at this figure. I have the figures for 4,6,and 7 point figures also.
Given that there would be 10,000 games this year that a team would be favored by 3 points, that favorite would win the game by exactly 3 points in 979 of those games. So in essence, I am saying that a 3 point favorite as the PROBABILITY of winning by exactly 3 points 9.79% of the time this year.
You can rest assured that I have put in extensive research and tons of variables to arrive at this figure. I have the figures for 4,6,and 7 point figures also.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Dante:
thanks guys for the input....
Nice to see you again Assassin posting..good luck on your games my Sir<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No more games for me. Just browsing here and there. All these damn bonusses everyone is giving out are definitely killing me though.
Day 18 of quitting somking. No cheating either.
thanks guys for the input....
Nice to see you again Assassin posting..good luck on your games my Sir<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
No more games for me. Just browsing here and there. All these damn bonusses everyone is giving out are definitely killing me though.
Day 18 of quitting somking. No cheating either.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Tekari:
yes strut i have heard around 10% also, but my question is how many cents exactly is on or off the 3 worth?
Do you have a estimate for that?
thanks<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Tekari, if you are interested I can show you. Buying off the 3 is HUGE as you know. If you pay -130 to get from 3 to 2.5 it is a very slight advantage, probably not much better than break even but not a loser. There is value at -125 and it's a HUGE play at -120 if you are that lucky to find it.
I just got an idea for a SQUARE TALK subject.
yes strut i have heard around 10% also, but my question is how many cents exactly is on or off the 3 worth?
Do you have a estimate for that?
thanks<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Tekari, if you are interested I can show you. Buying off the 3 is HUGE as you know. If you pay -130 to get from 3 to 2.5 it is a very slight advantage, probably not much better than break even but not a loser. There is value at -125 and it's a HUGE play at -120 if you are that lucky to find it.
I just got an idea for a SQUARE TALK subject.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Hache man:
Square? Pleazzzzzzzzz Pat!
Pat, can I email you? A couple of questions.........<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Of course....
patrickmcirish@hotmail.com
Square? Pleazzzzzzzzz Pat!
Of course....
patrickmcirish@hotmail.com
