Last Future Angle Recommendation of the Year....well probably not.

[VegasVic]

Watching last night's highlights on the NHL network this morning these guys are gushing over Toronto and saying how they are just four points from being in the fourth spot and having home ice advantage......Whaaaaa? and face Pittsburgh? How is that a good thing?

If you are not number one or two, the best spot for any team in the east is number 6. From a, owning a future ticket perspective, I don't care about having home ice advantage. Give me either Florida or Washington in the playoffs. If you have Jersey, the Leafs, or Ottawa on a future bet you want position number 6 because you can let it ride and take your chances through the first round. If they win that you are only three rounds away from a cup winner and in decent hedging position providing you have appropriate odds. Devils and Leafs are both currently 40/1 at 5dimes and sportbet.com. Ottawa is 50/1 at 5dimes. If you are fortunate to be loaded at sportsbook.com you can get the Leafs at 50/1.

 

[barman]

Was perusing both conferences this morning and considering how to best apply the big $92 I won on supe sunday

Devils do continue to intrigue (per our swapped emails of about three weeks ago) and I think Nashville in West (+2500) could vie as well, particularly because they (Preds) are in fact just four Points shy of the team they would likely face in Round 2 (Detroit) were they to stand pat and win Round 1 with a 4vs5 matchup.

Predators have best record "vs current Top 10" outside of NY Rangers.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nhl1112.htm

In related evaluation, Penguins have "worst record vs current Top 10" and also "vs current Top 16" of those teams listed in Top 10

IOW, they are just 5-10 vs Top10 and 11-15 vs Top16

This means their overall record is founded so far on cleaning up vs lower half of league (19-8 record)

 

[rolltide]

In related evaluation, Penguins have "worst record vs current Top 10" and also "vs current Top 16" of those teams listed in Top 10

IOW, they are just 5-10 vs Top10 and 11-15 vs Top16

This means their overall record is founded so far on cleaning up vs lower half of league (19-8 record)

Pens really struggling against East elite...if you only consider record vs fellow 30+ win teams they are:
rangers LLW
philly LL
devils WLLL
boston LW
toronto LL

That's 3-10 against the East's other top teams...although two of those wins came in the past week

 

[Bushay]

Dont have a current list on hand but this was on Jan 23. The Pens had more man games lost to injury than the whole league
1. Pittsburgh 240
2. N.Y. Islanders 222
3. Montreal 221
4. Buffalo 213
4. Winnipeg 213
6. Calgary 211
7. St. Louis 190
8. Columbus 187
9. Florida 185
10. Minnesota 180

With or without Crosby, this is the most dangerous team in the East because this core group have recently won and knows what it takes to get back there.

Those regular season loses to those teams will mean nothing in April.

 

[Bushay]

Here's the other side of that coin.

30. BOSTON BRUINS – 32
29. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS – 49
28. SAN JOSE SHARKS – 66
27. PHOENIX COYOTES — 82
26. NASHVILLE PREDATORS – 93
25. LOS ANGELES KINGS – 94
24. DETROIT RED WINGS – 99
23. DALLAS STARS – 108
22. CAROLINA HURRICANES – 110
21. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING – 128

 

[VegasVic]

With or without Crosby, this is the most dangerous team in the East because this core group have recently won and knows what it takes to get back there.

Those regular season loses to those teams will mean nothing in April.

this

 

[VegasVic]

Here's the other side of that coin.

30. BOSTON BRUINS – 32

Two years in a row B's have lived a very charmed life in regard to staying injury free. Very rare thing in any sport especially in the NHL. I still think they are the team to beat in the east but certainly Rangers and Pens are very close seconds.

 

[VegasVic]

Was perusing both conferences this morning and considering how to best apply the big $92 I won on supe sunday

Devils do continue to intrigue (per our swapped emails of about three weeks ago) and I think Nashville in West (+2500) could vie as well, particularly because they (Preds) are in fact just four Points shy of the team they would likely face in Round 2 (Detroit) were they to stand pat and win Round 1 with a 4vs5 matchup.

Predators have best record "vs current Top 10" outside of NY Rangers.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nhl1112.htm

In related evaluation, Penguins have "worst record vs current Top 10" and also "vs current Top 16" of those teams listed in Top 10

IOW, they are just 5-10 vs Top10 and 11-15 vs Top16

This means their overall record is founded so far on cleaning up vs lower half of league (19-8 record)

Preds at 25/1 would be my choice between them and Devils. With the caveat of...very interested in seeing what happens in the next two weeks regarding Sutter. If they do trade him no doubt it involes draft picks and not anything that necessarily helps them for the playoffs.

 

[guil0000]

Great thread guys. I agree with Bushay. They will be the most dangerous club in the playoffs

 

[barman]

Vic, since posting this morning I've mused further and concur that Preds (25x) is a better risk than NJ (40x) not only in obvious view of linesmaker, but IMO due moreso to presence of P Rinne being a true shutdown goalie when the rest of team plays on track

In fact, I can't help but wonder if they can pull a continued push ala the 2004 TBL and close the currently 4 Pt gap between themselves and Wings to make the jump to #1 Conference seed. In that case, it would be much more Happy Hedge since 1st round would give us the 8th seed at +200 or more

 

[barman]

Preds make or break their possible rise/fall during next ten games, IMO

Seven are vs teams currently in Top 6 seed rank (includes Boston from East)....and two more vs Ottawa & LosAngeles (East8th and West7th today)

I'm constructing a chart for "NHL since first week of December", which will reflect approximately Past 25 games per team) and will post ASAP

In that vein, Nashville is 16-3-3 (19-3)

Which interprets as 16 Wins in reg or OT, 3 Losses in reg or OT and 3 "ties/aka Shootout results". The parenthetical tally includes results of the Shootouts. In Preds case, it's a clean 3-0

 

[VegasVic]

The key to me for Nashville is the trade deadline. While their defense can be second to none what happens if they fall behind by two goals in a playoff game? Not the type of offense that can be expected to rally from a deficit. While I like their makeup, offense by comittee, I still think they need a go to guy. Suter's potential trade is the ace in the hole.

 

[barman]

*Trade deadline certainly a key to watch. What if they are able to do some kind of deal with next year high draft picks/single legit young prospect and receive a solid first or second line forward?

*If they fall behind by two goals in a playoff game, they most likely lose that game. And then they come back in next game and win 2-1 or 3-2......(smile)

*Certainly provocative that the West has a bevy of "shutdown goalies" in that current top 5 (Howard, Niemi, Luongo, Rinne, Elliott)

 

[VegasVic]

*Trade deadline certainly a key to watch. What if they are able to do some kind of deal with next year high draft picks/single legit young prospect and receive a solid first or second line forward?

Doubt they get both 1st round pick and a top line forward for him. Problem with the draft is it's top heavy this year and the teams you're trading with would probably be owning picks late in the first round. He is a UFA and that is the only reason Nashville deal him. Wish they had the cap room and see someone like Jeff Carter be moved for Suter.

*If they fall behind by two goals in a playoff game, they most likely lose that game. And then they come back in next game and win 2-1 or 3-2......(smile)

*Certainly provocative that the West has a bevy of "shutdown goalies" in that current top 5 (Howard, Niemi, Luongo, Rinne, Elliott)

You would be correct sir as that is the pattern in the playoffs. After thinking about it some more, I suppose most teams that fall behind by two goals in a playoff game rarely come back to win.