Las Vegas Screwed Up The Point Spread For The Super Bowl And It Could Cost Millions

Betallsports · Jan 20, 2015

With 12 days to go before the Super Bowl, there is no favorite to win the big game. But it didn't start out that way and it could be a disaster for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Shortly after New England Patriots completed their destruction of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship game, Super Bowl 49 opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 2.5- or 3-point favorites depending on where you looked.

However, in the first 24 hours of betting, the line fell all the way to a pick 'em (no favorite), a surprisingly big move for a point spread and a rare miss by Las Vegas.
Keep in mind, point spreads are not designed to predict the winner. Rather, the purpose of a point spread is to find a number where equal amounts of money are being bet on both sides. When this happens, Vegas wins as losing bets typically have to pay an extra 10% (e.g. a $100 bet actually costs $110 if it loses).

In the case of the Super Bowl, that didn't happen. About 80% of the bets on the Big Game in the first 24 hours were on the Patriots, according to PreGame

What is even more intriguing about this big swing is that the early betting action is typically done by the more seasoned and often professional gamblers making big bets (AKA "sharps") while Joe Public typically waits until a day or two before the game or even game day.

This means that the usually smarter gamblers felt the opening line with the Seahawks favored was a terrible line and immediately put a ton of money on the Patriots including at least one "six figure" bet at the MGM Casino according to ESPN.com.

So when the Super Bowl kicks off there will likely be a lot more money riding on New England which means if the Pats win, Vegas is going to lose big time.

Betallsports · Jan 20, 2015

loomis41973 · Jan 20, 2015

Couldn't believe i got +3 and +2.

Betallsports · Jan 20, 2015

loomis41973 said:
Couldn't believe i got +3 and +2.

I got the same, but they were Limited

loomis41973 · Jan 20, 2015

Betallsports said:
I got the same, but they were Limited

Plenty of time to get multiple bets down.

The Guesser · Jan 20, 2015

Vegas will do fine. No matter who wins, unless it's a one point win by either. Even then, there won't be any Hotels that will have to skip their electric bill, with how fantastic this year was in the NFL for the Books. The Props will prop them to profits even if the team that gets the most money bet wins.

http://www.betfirm.com/amount-bet-on-the-super-bowl/
Super Bowl XLVIII between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks proved to be the most wagered-on Super Bowl of all-time. The total handle in Las Vegas cracked $100 million for the first time in history. Not only that, it blew out the previous record of $98,936,798 in 2013.
Initial numbers show that the 2014 Super Bowl generated $119,400,000 in total wagers. The sports books in Vegas were rooting hard for the Seahawks considering roughly two-thirds of the action was on the Broncos. As a result, these books won a record $19,700,000. Sports book managers all over town were giving high fives to their coworkers as the Seahawks rolled by a final of 43-8.
Since 1991, the amount of money being bet has jumped by nearly $80 million. Fans are now more than ever willing to make some extra money by placing bets on big games such as the Super Bowl. There should be no reason to believe it will decrease in the future.
Only twice since 1991 has Las Vegas actually lost money on the Super bowl. The first occasion happened in Super Bowl XXIX when the San Francisco 49ers beat the San Diego Chargers by a final of 49-26. Vegas lost $396,674 that year. The second time occurred just a few years back in Super Bowl XLII when the New York Giants pulled off a huge upset over the previously unbeaten New England Patriots by a final of 17-14.
Sports books dropped $2,573,103 for their biggest loss in Super Bowl history. The Giants were anywhere from an 11-14 point underdog in that game, and there was a lot of money coming in on the double-digit dog. Where the books really took the biggest hit was on the money line, where New York could be found anywhere from +325 to +405.
Those two years that Vegas books lost are nothing compared to the amount of money they have won over time. In fact, they have profited at over $10,000,000 five times since 1991. Their second-biggest payout came in Super Bowl XXXIX when the New England Patriots topped the Philadelphia Eagles 24-21. The books made $15,430,138 that year as most money was bet on the Patriots (-7) against the spread. They also dodged Eagles’ money line bets as New England won by three.
The handle for the four games from 2005 to 2008 was over $90 million each year. After the stock market crash of 2008, the numbers took a dive in 2009. However, the numbers have increased the past five years due to the economic growth in North America. Las Vegas is once again thriving as The Strip has returned to life following some down years in 2009 and 2010.
Here is a list showing the total handle on each Super Bowl since 1991. I have listed the total money bet on each game, the amount sports books won or lost along with the return percentage, and the final score. Parentheses () indicate a loss for that year.
[h=3]Amount Bet on the Super Bowl Each Year[/h]

YEAR	AMT WAGERED	BOOK W/L	RETURN	FINAL SCORE
2014	$ 119,400,000	$ 19,700,000	16.50%	Seahawks 43, Broncos 8
2013	$ 98,936,798	$ 7,206,460	7.30%	Ravens 34, 49ers 31
2012	$ 93,899,840	$ 5,064,470	5.40%	Giants 21, Patriots 17
2011	$ 87,491,098	$ 724,176	0.83%	Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
2010	$ 82,726,367	$ 6,857,101	8.29%	New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17
2009	$ 81,514,748	$ 6,678,044	8.19%	Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23
2008	$ 92,055,833	$ (2,573,103)	-2.80%	N.Y. Giants 17, New England 14
2007	$ 93,067,358	$ 12,930,175	13.89%	Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17
2006	$ 94,534,372	$ 8,828,431	9.34%	Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10
2005	$ 90,759,236	$ 15,430,138	17.00%	New England 24, Philadelphia 21
2004	$ 81,242,191	$ 12,440,698	15.31%	New England 32, Carolina 29
2003	$ 71,693,032	$ 5,264,963	7.34%	Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
2002	$ 71,513,304	$ 2,331,607	3.26%	New England 20, St. Louis 17
2001	$ 67,661,425	$ 11,002,636	16.26%	Baltimore 34, New York Giants 7
2000	$ 71,046,751	$ 4,237,978	5.97%	St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
1999	$ 75,986,520	$ 2,906,601	3.83%	Denver 34, Atlanta 19
1998	$ 77,253,246	$ 472,033	0.61%	Denver 31, Green Bay 24
1997	$ 70,853,211	$ 2,265,701	3.20%	Green Bay 35, New England 21
1996	$ 70,907,801	$ 7,126,145	10.05%	Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
1995	$ 69,591,818	$ (396,674)	-0.57%	San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
1994	$ 54,483,221	$ 7,481,541	13.73%	Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
1993	$ 56,811,405	$ 7,174,869	12.63%	Dallas 52, Buffalo 17
1992	$ 50,334,277	$ 301,280	0.60%	Washington 37, Buffalo 24
1991	$ 40,080,409	$ 3,512,241	8.76%	New York Giants 20, Buffalo 19

RenoChazz · Jan 20, 2015

Didn't the same exact thing happen last year? I remember Seattle opening the favorite last year, and Denver got pounded from a dog to -2.5.

ML Dog · Jan 20, 2015

None of you have noticed that Linesmakers seem to "screw up" the SuperBowl line each year?

Both NYG/NE superbowls, LY as mentioned which yes....IIRC what you said is accurate but whether it is or not Denver was pounded to hell somewhere along the way lol.

BALT/SF line completely wack cuz superior DEF getting points which they keep doing...(not here with NE+3 mind you but many + point of thread is "Linesmen messed up") see all my examples above, Better DEF given, generally, 3 points.

I grasp that Joe Pub bets the better OFFENSIVE TEAM so eventually Lines reflect them as FAVES thus superior DEF (who WIN the SuperBowls LMFAO) wind up as Dogs but I mean when Lines first come out reflecting such....again, my examples above Better DEF lined as DOG out the gate which is last 4 out of 6 superbowls I guess and thats just off top of my head.

Immediate hammering of NE+3, whatever Wise Guy $$ that was made up of...even Wise Guys lose 40% or more of the time so this articles over-reacting + as Guesser said Vegas will do fine unless this happens and they get their asses Middled a bunch which tossing out NE+3 yeah.....OK maybe they did screw up lol:

1979 Super Bowl. Steelers and Dallas Cowboys opened Steelers -4.5. During the week, so much money was bet on the Cowboys that the line moved to -4 and finally to -3.5 as the sporsbook looked to balance action (get as much money on the underdog as on the favorite to minimize risk).

That live movement proved fatal for sportsbooks when the final score ended 35-31 Pittsburgh. Bettors who got the Cowboys early at +4.5 won their bets. Bettors who got the Steelers late at -3.5 won their bets. Everyone who bet at -4 or +4 experienced a push (or tie) so all those wagers were refunded.

This is still known to this day 35 years later in Vegas as Black Sunday.

KennyB · Jan 21, 2015

That's strange because before the New Eng/Indy game ended 5dimes had the super bowl line as a pick.

BAGIANT · Jan 22, 2015

That 1979 game known as Black Sunday was a unch of BS that the bookies took a bath. In the weeks before the SB, betting is very light and there was hardly any money bet at +4.5 and -3.5. The major money comes in on the day of the game and the line was 4. Since the game was a push , they made their money on the total and the props. Black Sunday my ass.