Yup. I'll be a happy guy if I can lay -3. No series line but it's hard to see how LA can be made chalk when SA 4/7 homecourt as favs. Figure LA no more than -4.5 on their homecourt. They're calling it basically even on a neutral court but with SA having homecourt they really should be amde slgith favs. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if they made LA slight chalk just so they can balance the sharp vs. square action. If they open SA fav they may get the square action on LA w/o the sharp action on SA. I salivate for + money on SA.
Might see some variety in numbers here. I think books that are heavy on the Lakers in the future book might give some incentive to back the Spurs. Knowing this might be their last chance to get some good action on a series line they might take a big shot at it. To overcome the big public bias the Lakers might be favored even if the game to game lines and MLs don't really back up the theory. My guess is the lines will vary also due to situations. I think if the Spurs win game 1 then they will be favored by 2 in game 2 and if they lose it then they will be something like -4.5. Hard to read much into the series price just from one posted line, but I think without a doubt the bias will be on the Lakers.
No surprise as Lakers slight fave. Should see -.20 at normal stores. Would love to see some Spurs + but that may be wishful thinking. 3 1/2 at Spiro's hit to 4. I think this is the classic Sharp vs. Squares series. Great balancing action. Plenty of time and rest for both teams and action to come in. Rockets 4th dog not to cover in an elimination game. 0-4 ATS in that spot. And another fave. Sorry Fezzik, maybe next dog. Best wishes...OF
Holy sh*t on that Lakers series price now. Of course I think that's around what it SHOULD be, but I really was convinced I'd get some generous Spurs action. I bet some other books are not too thrilled to see that price for the reasons that WildBill stated. Could be interesting to see some books try to drag the price down. Could be some nice arbitrage available.
Well no more wishful thinking, CRIS has opener -4 1/2, series Spurs -1.45, 20 cent line. Lakers were the slight fave, lasted about an hour. I would have done same thing but already there with futures. Too much sharp money seeing same thing I see. Lakers stepping way up this series. IMO, very bad opener from Spiro and Pinny. Best Wishes...OF
I think there is still value on Spurs series. Normally, the series price should be equivalent, or close to a game #7 price. For example Miami -2.75 to win series, -2.65 tonight game #5. Spurs -2.05 game #1, series -1.45 at Cris. So I can think the Spurs would be a 2 point fave in a game #7 at home? There is not enough bias in a game one to justify the difference. I think home swings small this series. 7-8. Lakers 3 1/2 to 4 at home. Of course two games to be played first, have huge impact. Lakers lost tremendous value in Rockets series, as they just played a mediocre 6 man team basically even. Until Rockets finally ran out of gas/comebacks. Spurs took apart a much better Grizz team. Seen this before with Bulls/Jazz, Bulls struggle bigtime with Indy, Jazz sweep somebody. Bulls were heavy faves before series, went to pick after. Lakers just do not inspire any sharp money, not in a 7 game series, if you cap it out, with no team names, scales heavily in Spurs favor. This is going to be good. Best Wishes...OF
Another hit, different book. Already Spurs series jumped a t pinny, so Cris could put even higher -.45 out, it's -1.50 now. This series is does not start until Sunday! There was a lot of sharp money waiting at the door on this one. Door opened they ran in, he who hesitates is lost, as in a -1.06 to +1.30 scalp. Wow. Not sure enough square action out there that bets series lines to ever get near the opener again. In my estimation, still value, on the series, but not for long. I think big money here blinked and hit Pinny too soon, fearing someone else would do the same. When you hit that lone number hard, all other books post the new adjusted number, if not adding a bit more to it. Sort of like a feeding frenzy. Just do not see early orders that big very often. This was a wait for the opener and hit it hard order. Guess it was perfect speculation, at this point, congrats, good hit. First come first serve applies. Best Wishes...OF
No stop sign on this yet, and early Pinny hit probably not a scalp, and not a lot of volume so takeback factor real low.
No stop sign on this yet, and early Pinny hit probably not a scalp, and not a lot of volume so takeback factor real low.
