L2KA NFL

[Loves2kickass]

05:15 PM • Thursday • Nov 16, 2023
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

PREDICTIVE MODEL
Spread: Baltimore -5
Moneyline: Baltimore -234
Total: 46
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2
Team Points: Baltimore 25 1/2

ACTUAL LINE (Circa)
Spread: Baltimore -3 1/2, -110
Moneyline: Baltimore -180
Total: 46 1/2, -110
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2 ov, -120
Team Points: Baltimore 24 1/2 ov, -120


Slight lean with the Baltimore Ravens spread and/or moneyline. I'd feel more comfortable with -3, -110 which would also drop the moneyline to about -160/-165. The game total and team points look to be right on with hardly any value at all. Good luck!

 

[Loves2kickass]

KEY INJURIES
~ Cincinnati ~
WR Tee Higgins (Hamstring) OUT
DE Sam Hubbard (Ankle) OUT
~ Baltimore ~
LT Ronnie Stanley (Knee) OUT
CB Marlon Himphrey (Calf) DOUBTFULL

 

[Loves2kickass]

Cincinnati - Baltimore line moved to -4, a half point closer to my predictive model -5 number. That's significant moving to -4 rather than back to -3. I'm not suprised.

 

[PirateAlew]

Nice glad to see it! here's a TD-10 pt easy win for Ravens tonight! GL!

 

[Loves2kickass]

Nice glad to see it! here's a TD-10 pt easy win for Ravens tonight! GL!

Most of these lines are tough each week, pretty tight. Very hard to decifer. I'm not trying to predict but rather get a good starting point.

 

[PirateAlew]

Most of these lines are tough each week, pretty tight. Very hard to decifer. I'm not trying to predict but rather get a good starting point.

very true, especially the last 3-4 weeks, extremely tight with the hooks right around key numbers of -3 and -6...not easy finding the edge but hopefully we got one tonight!

 

[Loves2kickass]

very true, especially the last 3-4 weeks, extremely tight with the hooks right around key numbers of -3 and -6...not easy finding the edge but hopefully we got one tonight!

Damn books LOL. Why can't they make this easier hahaha. I'm tired of working for my money.

 

[Loves2kickass]

05:15 PM • Thursday • Nov 16, 2023
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

PREDICTIVE MODEL
Spread: Baltimore -5
Moneyline: Baltimore -234
Total: 46
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2
Team Points: Baltimore 25 1/2

ACTUAL LINE (Circa)
Spread: Baltimore -3 1/2, -110
Moneyline: Baltimore -180
Total: 46 1/2, -110
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2 ov, -120
Team Points: Baltimore 24 1/2 ov, -120


Slight lean with the Baltimore Ravens spread and/or moneyline. I'd feel more comfortable with -3, -110 which would also drop the moneyline to about -160/-165. The game total and team points look to be right on with hardly any value at all. Good luck!

•Baltimore covered the spread as my model predicted
•Baltimore moneyline undervalued as my model predicted
•Baltimore team total over as my model predicted
•Cincinnati team total on the exact number my model predicted

 

[PirateAlew]

•Baltimore covered the spread as my model predicted
•Baltimore moneyline undervalued as my model predicted
•Baltimore team total over as my model predicted
•Cincinnati team total on the exact number my model predicted

I told my buddy before kickoff, ravens and over easy $. and joked around and said bengals TT under (20.5) as i felt they might not score a lot...all 3 hit....what a good night and good game for us!

 

[Loves2kickass]

I told my buddy before kickoff, ravens and over easy $. and joked around and said bengals TT under (20.5) as i felt they might not score a lot...all 3 hit....what a good night and good game for us!

Nice, brother, great job tonight! I did pretty good tonight also.

 

[Loves2kickass]

To anyone curious.... These AREN'T power ratings that I'm posting. I have a predictive model that I created that i use and as I used for the TNF game. It provides me a spread, total, team points, etc. to compare to the actual book lines and I make my bets based on that.

In last night's game it was close to perfect but its not always like that. Its a great starting point for me though for betting sides and/or totals. Good luck to the forum.

 

[itchyback]

Damn books LOL. Why can't they make this easier hahaha. I'm tired of working for my money.

Imagine making lines in 70 s 80 s before
Computer

 

[G-Man!]

LOL. But in all the posts after you posted the rating you said there was little value

•Baltimore covered the spread as my model predicted
•Baltimore moneyline undervalued as my model predicted
•Baltimore team total over as my model predicted
•Cincinnati team total on the exact number my model predicted

and you DIDNT BET THE GAME! <LOL

05:15 PM • Thursday • Nov 16, 2023
Cincinnati @ Baltimore


Slight lean with the Baltimore Ravens spread and/or moneyline. I'd feel more comfortable with -3, -110 which would also drop the moneyline to about -160/-165. The game total and team points look to be right on with hardly any value at all. Good luck!

 

[Loves2kickass]

LOL. But in all the posts after you posted the rating you said there was little value


and you DIDNT BET THE GAME! <LOL

05:15 PM • Thursday • Nov 16, 2023
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

PREDICTIVE MODEL
Spread: Baltimore -5
Moneyline: Baltimore -234
Total: 46
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2
Team Points: Baltimore 25 1/2

ACTUAL LINE (Circa)
Spread: Baltimore -3 1/2, -110
Moneyline: Baltimore -180
Total: 46 1/2, -110
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2 ov, -120
Team Points: Baltimore 24 1/2 ov, -120


Slight lean with the Baltimore Ravens spread and/or moneyline. I'd feel more comfortable with -3, -110 which would also drop the moneyline to about -160/-165. The game total and team points look to be right on with hardly any value at all. Good luck!

•Baltimore covered the spread as my model predicted
•Baltimore moneyline undervalued as my model predicted
•Baltimore team total over as my model predicted
•Cincinnati team total on the exact number my model predicted

But, but, but Read it again with your reading glasses on. Lol. BTW I did bet the game. That's the funny part. You didn't know that cause it's nonya buisness.

 

[Loves2kickass]

LOL. But in all the posts after you posted the rating you said there was little value


and you DIDNT BET THE GAME! <LOL

05:15 PM • Thursday • Nov 16, 2023
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

PREDICTIVE MODEL
Spread: Baltimore -5
Moneyline: Baltimore -234
Total: 46
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2
Team Points: Baltimore 25 1/2

ACTUAL LINE (Circa)
Spread: Baltimore -3 1/2, -110
Moneyline: Baltimore -180
Total: 46 1/2, -110
Team Points: Cincinnati 20 1/2 ov, -120
Team Points: Baltimore 24 1/2 ov, -120


Slight lean with the Baltimore Ravens spread and/or moneyline. I'd feel more comfortable with -3, -110 which would also drop the moneyline to about -160/-165. The game total and team points look to be right on with hardly any value at all. Good luck!

I give the info and everyone can bet as they wish. I don't need to give you or anyone else my personal bets any longer. It appears my take on the TNF game was pretty much spot on wouldn't ya say? LOL

 

[G-Man!]

I give the info and everyone can bet as they wish. I don't need to give you or anyone else my personal bets any longer. It appears my take on the TNF game was pretty much spot on wouldn't ya say? LOL

Sure it was "Spot On" Tansk to Burrow ending the season injured...LOL.
But you have to count all the other losses you posted bud...

LOL