KY Derby

[JudgeWapner]

1. Lookin at Lee, 20-1 Ran 3rd in Ark Derby. Has run in good company but doesn't seem to win at this level. Will fall back early and then try to come from the clouds. Hence the 1 post won't really hurt him. With a lifetime best speed fig of 94 he just doesn't seem fast enough. The added distance should help him though.As a 2 yo ran a nice race at CD. Will pass some horses in the stretch. .


2. Thunder Snow 20-1 Has some talent. Shipping in from Dubai where he won the UAE Derby. Historically the winner there doesn't do much in Kentucky. Has a tracking style. Never run in the US. Not sure about the surface and distance here.


3. Fast and Accurate 50-1 Did not run in a major prep race. From a class standpoint, seems a level or 2 below the best here. Has been winning at that lower level but can he move up here? Should show early speed. On or near the lead early. No races at CD but a couple of solid works there so it looks like he is taking to the track. Biggest problem is his speed figures. Has yet to crack 90 which won't get it done here. May get used up on the front end.

4. Untrapped 30-1 Finished up the track in the Ark Derby. Appeared to tire.Likes a stalking trip. Ran a nice race in The Risen Star. Has regressed since then. Won a race here at 2.

5. Always Dreaming 5-1 A deserving favorite. Has done very little wrong. Would like to have seen run another race at 3. A little green. Ran a great Fla Derby with a 102 speed fig. Soft early fractions seemed to set that race up well for him. Good connections. Has never raced at CD so we'll see how he handles the strip. Should sit just behind the leaders which should be a good place to be. Good breeding so I don't think the distance is a problem.

 

[JudgeWapner]

6. State of Honor 30-1 Ran 2nd in Fla Derby. Like to be on or near the lead. Was in good position in Fla. No excuses there. Never ran at CD. The one work I see there not all that impressive. Not sure he is going to like the added distance. Improving speed figs is a plus.

7. Girvin 15-1 Nice horse but another one who is a little green. Won the Risen Star and the LA Derby. Improving speed figures. Likes a stalking trip. Should sit off the pace and make his move at top of the stretch. Has the look of a horse that should like the added distance. Not sure of the quality of animal he beat in those 2 races. If he improves off his LA Derby, it should put him in the mix. One good work at CD.

8. Hence 15-1 Comes off a win in the Sunland Derby. Not historically the strongest of prep races. Took advantage of quick early fractions there. Was given a speed fig of 103. Not sure Im buying into that based on his previous races.Will probably drop back early and save his move for the stretch.Did get 2nd in a race at 2yo at CD. Maybe a bit outclassed here.

9. Irap, 20-1 Won the BG Stakes. Benefited from very slow fractions to win on the lead. 100 speed figure there, but doesn't rate to get a trip like that here. Should be on or near the lead early. Got beat by Hence in the Sunland. No races or works at CD.

10. Gunnevera, 15-1 This is one that stood out for me at first glance. Got 3rd in Fla Derby. Rough trip there. Won the FOY with a 102 fig. Come from pretty far off the pace and would appear to like the added distance. No races or works at CD.

 

[JudgeWapner]

11. Battle of Midway, 30-1 Got 2nd in the SA Derby. Was caught in the stretch after being on the lead the whole race. A green horse who seems to be improving. No races at 2yo. Like to be on or near the lead. May wind up out front here. No races or works at CD. Speed figs going in the right direction. Not sure about this distance for him.


12. Sonneteer, 50-1 4th in teh Ark Derby. Seems to be a cut below the best here in class. Improving speed figs but would need quite a jump to compete here. Lots of 2nds and 3rds, but doesn;t win. Will lay off the pace. No races or works at CD., Has the look of a plodder.

13. J Boys Echo, 20-1 4th in the BG, won the Gotham. Ran a 104 in the later, but looks a little suspect. Somewhere between tactical speed and a closer. Slow fractions in BG compromised any shot he had there. His first race was at CD. Seemed to like the track. Recent work there- so so.

14. Classic Empire, 4-1 Im thinking will be the 2nd favorite here. Won the Ark Derby with a 96 speed fig. Won the BC Juv with a 108. Very impressive race. Likes a stalking trip but can come from further back. Versatility is a nice trait in this race. Has won a CD. Seems to be coming into his best form. Will be a factor on Saturday.

15. McCraken, 5-1 Another one of the favorites.3rd in the BG with a 96 speed fig. May have been a race short for that one. Also likes a stalking trip. Runs well at CD. Also should be a factor.

 

[michael777]

thanks Judge,good stuff

 

[JudgeWapner]

16. Tapwrit, 20-1 5th in BG, won TB Derby, Ran a 101 in TB. Likes to run just off the pace. Also fairly green. Got beat by McCracken 3 back. No races or works at CD. Had an excuse in the BG. Maybe with added distance he can turn tables on McCraken?

17. Irish War Cry, 6-1 Got 1st in The Wood. Speed horse who should be near the front here. Not the post he wanted. May have to work early to get into position. Tired in FOY so not sure about the distance. His top speed figures puts him in the mix here. No races or works at CD.

18. Gormley, 15-1 Won the SA Derby with a 99. Ran a 102 in the Sham. Like to run just off the lead. Tired in the San Felipe but was coming off a layoff. No races or works at CD. Good connections. May have to gun it out of gate to get any sort of position.

19. Practical Joke, 20-1 Got 2nd in BG with a 99 speed fig. Probably a better race than it appears because of the slow fractions. Likes to come off the pace. Expect him to drop back off the start and try to save ground. was a monster at 2, still trying to get back to that form. Got beat by Gunnevera in FOY. No races or works at CD. Seems to be moving in the right direction.

20. Patch, 30-1 2nd in LA Derby with a 98. Ran a 101 when he broke his maiden. With only 3 races under his belt [unraced at 2] they might be asking too much of him here. Likes at stalking trip which might not be possible with this post. They may have to take him back early. No CD races or works.

 

[JudgeWapner]

My pleasure. Looks like a very open race with no dominant animals. Not a ton of early speed that I can see. Betting should be spread around pretty good. Tomorrow Ill take a look at how I think the race unfolds. Please everyone feel free to contribute thoughts and opinions.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Right now calling for scattered showers on Sat. Worth keeping an eye on.

 

[slapshot]

Thanks JW

 

[michael777]

last ticket I cashed on the derby was 1986! ^<<^ It's true,$100 to win on Ferdinand with Bill Shoemaker,paid $32 to win,I am in a mild slump

 

[JudgeWapner]

Bill ran one hell of a race that day. One of the best in Derby history.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Bookmaker seems to like Classic Empire as the favorite.

 

[michael777]

I like +150 at 5dimes on Classic Empire to finish in the top three,what do you think JW?

 

[JudgeWapner]

He is looking like the best horse in the race. And with his versatility, he'll have options. I'm am pretty sure I will have him in the mix. He should fire, and he should improve off the last. Also likes the CD strip. I like it.

 

[JudgeWapner]

I like +150 at 5dimes on Classic Empire to finish in the top three,what do you think JW?

Good price. Only 138 at Bookmaker.

 

[ML Dog]

I always look forward to this thread. Thank You Judge.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Thank you ML. Here's a link to works. Some have video. Always Dreaming is one beautiful animal.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Sorry. Here:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/workouts

 

[theMadMan]

""17. Irish War Cry, 6-1 Got 1st in The Wood. Speed horse who should be near the front here. Not the post he wanted. May have to work early to get into position. Tired in FOY so not sure about the distance. His top speed figures puts him in the mix here. No races or works at CD.""


FYI...
G. Motion was quoted early in the week stating IWC did not like to run inside of horses -so while 17 is not ideal it is much better for him than the inside post.....
he should be ok!

 

[theMadMan]

He is looking like the best horse in the race. And with his versatility, he'll have options. I'm am pretty sure I will have him in the mix. He should fire, and he should improve off the last. Also likes the CD strip. I like it.

I agree .... Only knock was a 3rd in his comeback race - is the denfending 2yo champ have to beat him

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

If the track is sloppy, watch for Thunder Snow the 2 horse from Dubai....