Just starting to look over this week's lines and it's looking like a tough week. Not nearly as many soft lines as we saw in Week 1, but I still think there's some value to be found out there. I'm going to likely take until Saturday to nail down my plays again, but until then thoughts and comments are welcome as always! Let's put a solid Week 2 in the books as well!
I'm leaning to the over (currently 40 1/2) in the Ravens/Chargers game. Both defenses appear to be given a little too much credit. Also, both offenses are solid, but Chargers are dinged on the o-line a little which could lead to a turnover or two. I see 27-24 as a likely final score. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
I'm thinking the over would probably be the play there, although I'm not certain enough in it to recommend it. I certainly expect the Ravens to keep some heavy pressure on Rivers, so I agree there may be a turnover or two. This game is a bit tough to get a read on since we certainly expected a better defensive effort by Baltimore Week 1 against the Chiefs, and the Chargers also struggled mightily against the Raiders. Like I said, I don't have a great read on this game or on either of these teams yet, so take what I say with a grain of salt. However, I do currently lean towards the over with you.
Week 1 sure treated us well, with my posted plays going a stunning 6-0 ATS. It's safe to say I had the right read on all of those games, with the sole exception maybe being the lucky cover by the Packers. I thought they could win a little more comfortably than that, but in the end a win is a win. The lucky breaks will even out along the way, I'm sure my followers from last year can remember a couple brutal beats we took (Losing an over because of a botched extra point is still the most painful).
As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:
* Philadelphia Eagles PK
The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.
One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.
Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
* Baltimore +3
I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.
Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.
* Atlanta Falcons -6
This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.
The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.
So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.
Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!
As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:
* Philadelphia Eagles PK
The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.
One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.
Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.
* Baltimore +3
I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.
Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.
* Atlanta Falcons -6
This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.
The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.
So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.
Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!
