Kirby's NBA Picks for Sunday

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

Alright guys, so yesterday was the big payday. Today can be as well, we just have to remember what we learned in the past and apply it. With that said, I'm going to assume that a lot of people will be against my picks. But I truly believe that my structure and formula works.

Boston @ Chicago
--------------------
The Pick: Boston +3
The Pick: Under 200
Predicted Outcome: Boston 99, Chicago 81

Alright, I'd have to admit, I was a little shocked when I saw this line. Did people forget game three? Not like it was two months ago, It was 48 hours ago. So Chicago is still the favorite? and then the public moves the line higher? This seems no brainier guys. A experienced and very talented yet injured Rondo will prevail over a young Chicago team. Rose's numbers just keep getting smaller and smaller huh? I think people are getting the wrong idea about this Boston team. They've been here before, and they're ready to take it. (this series at least) Take a look at the numbers fellas, This isn't my pick, this is the numbers pick. Boston +3 is the right play. It's the better value. And I promise you, the numbers speak for themselves. History will repeat itself.

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="6"></td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Shooting </td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">3pt shots</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Free Throws</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Rebounds</td><td class="matchupHeader"> </td></tr><tr><td class="matchupSubHeader">Date</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Teams</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Score</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Line</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Result</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Half</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FTM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Tot.</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">OFF</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">TO</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/23/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">107</td><td class="matchupCells">202.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">59</td><td class="matchupCells">38-79</td><td class="good">48.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">12-21</td><td class="good">57.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">19-24</td><td class="good">79.2%</td><td class="bad">48</td><td class="bad">8</td><td class="good">13</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text"> </td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">86</td><td class="matchupCells">-4</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> Under</td><td class="matchupCells">37</td><td class="matchupCells">30-80</td><td class="bad">37.5%</td><td class="matchupCells">9-22</td><td class="good">40.9%</td><td class="matchupCells">17-27</td><td class="bad">63.0%</td><td class="good">58</td><td class="good">15</td><td class="bad">22</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">04/20/2009</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">115</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">196.5</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text"> ATS</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">61</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">40-80</td><td class="goodWhite">50.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">9-20</td><td class="goodWhite">45.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">26-29</td><td class="goodWhite">89.7%</td><td class="badWhite">41</td><td class="badWhite">8</td><td class="goodWhite">11</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text"> </td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">118</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">-9</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">58</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">47-96</td><td class="goodWhite">49.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">7-16</td><td class="goodWhite">43.7%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">17-25</td><td class="badWhite">68.0%</td><td class="goodWhite">59</td><td class="goodWhite">21</td><td class="goodWhite">12</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/18/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">105</td><td class="matchupCells">199</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">53</td><td class="matchupCells">41-96</td><td class="bad">42.7%</td><td class="matchupCells">3-17</td><td class="bad">17.6%</td><td class="matchupCells">20-22</td><td class="good">90.9%</td><td class="good">66</td><td class="bad">10</td><td class="matchupCells">16</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text"> </td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">103</td></tr></tbody></table>

Cleveland @ Detroit
---------------------
The Pick: Cleveland -9
The Pick Cleveland Under 177
Predicted Outcome: Cleveland 96, Detroit 79

Okay, This is fairly simple to examine. Cleveland has covered all three times, and last time when the spread was only 4.5 Cleveland took it all the way to 11. Detroit team mentality: They destroyed us in Cleveland, and they destroyed us here. Lets face it, put yourself in the Detroit team member's mentality. In order for them to win the series they'd have to win 4 straight, two of which would ultimately be where? of course. in Cleveland, Ohio. Do you think they think they're going to win? Do you think they really care anymore? Because let me tell you when they cared, they lost by 11 MINIMUM. so what do you think they'll lose by when they don't care? I'm thinking 17. I mean would you bet on Detroit to win the series? okay... so don't take the points. They already gave up. Take the under because of two reasons: REASON 1: 8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. REASON 2. Teams that have quit, won't score. nor will they play defense for that matter, so let me explain what happens. First half twenty point lead. Starters sit. slow low scoring game. Get it? Tomorrow is just going to be the same as basketball practice.

Orlando @ Philadelphia
-------------------------
The Pick: Philadelphia +4
The Pick: Over 191
Predicted Outcome: Orlando 97, Philadelphia 101

Oh Philadelphia... at first in game one I thought they got lucky by winning last minute. But I'm beginning to realize that this series is really about who wants it more. The sad thing about this is that I think mentally in the Beginning Orlando came in here thinking that they belonged here. Philly came in thinking "wouldn't it be badass if we got this". And you know what They're showing everyone just how badass it really would be. They are playing solid Defense, and maintainging. Let me just say, that out of the two teams, Orlando is very hit or miss, and Philly seems the more consistant team. So think about it, Philly, the home team, with +4 points, and two wins under their belt (and let me just add two very difficult, earned wins, that they'll be greatful for, not take for granted) Or Orlando a team that already feels they can't catch a break, after losing game one when they had a 18 point advantage. This is all mental folks. Orlando won game two because they were in Florida, and because Philly made a handful of costly mistakes. All that is over. Orlando is mentally beatdown, they're still going to fight for it, which is why I picked the over, because I think this game unlike the other ones in this series will be a little more faster pace. But in the end Philly will take it.

Portland @ Houston
------------------------
The Pick: Houston PK
The Pick: Under 182
Predicted Outcome: Houston 87 Portland 82

Houston We have a problem. And the problem is yes Houston has a lot of experiance, and yes they have a great lineup. But. Houston can't really finish games. In several occasions I've seen the Rockets give up huge point advantages. So I'll stay away from the responsiblity of covering the spread. But I will say this. I'm currently in Houston right now, and Texas just might be the best state in the whole world. Playing a game here, is not going to be easy. and this portland offense, really looked terrible this last game. There's just something about going to someone else's court. Even if you're a better team. take Denver for example they are so much better than New Orleans, but gave up a giant point advantage. The point is, the rockets will find their way to victory. Portland is a team that needs to grow a little bit, they are terrible on the road (21-20). Houston will take it, and eventually win the series. Portland will struggle to get momentum, and it will be a defensive game.

Well Guys, I really hopes this provides some insight and does help you with your investments. I always enjoy taking a look at what you guys have to say so feel free to post. Lets have another killer day.

-Kirby

Kirby's Record

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</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]NCAA RECORD AS OF 4/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]NBA PICKS AND DATES<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]46-23-1 <o></o>[/FONT]
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]NCAA PICKS AND DATES<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]16-10-0<o></o>[/FONT]
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 450.4pt;"> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt; height: 450.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]Lakers -6 over Bucks. PUSH 4/01/09[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
Wizzards vs. Grizzlies Over 203.5 4/01/09
Rockets +1.5 vs Suns 4/01/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Nuggets -5 Over Jazz 4/02/09
Nuggets/Jazz over 209 4/02/09
76ers -8.5 over Bucks 4/02/09
Miami vs. Charlotte Over 183 4/03/09[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
San Antonio vs. Indiana +4 4/03.09
Cleveland vs. Orlando -4 4/03/09
New Orleans vs. Golden State Over 218 4/03/09
Atlanta vs. Boston straight up 4/03/09
Houston vs. LA Lakers straight up 4/03/09
Denver/Minnesota OVER 208.5 04/05/09
Utah/New Orleans OVER 192 04/06/09
Golden State +3/Sacramento 04/06/09
Charlotte/Detroit -2 04/06/09
New York/Toronto -5.5 04/05/09
Philadelphia/New Jersey UNDER 197 04/06/09
Boston -10.5 04/08/09
New Orleans -3 04/08/09
Detroit -4 04/08/09
Atlanta -1.5 Milwaukee 04/08/09
Atlanta/Milwaukee OVER 197 04/08/09
Dallas Straight up04/08/09
Oklahoma City/Denver OVER 210 04/08/09
Utah/Dallas over 208.504/08/09
Golden State straight up04/08/09
Minnesota/Golden State UNDER 22304/08/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Philadelphia +6/Chicago 04/09/09[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
Philadelphia OVER 202.5 04/09/09
Denver/LA Lakers -8.5 04/09/09
Denver OVER 210.5/LA Lakers 04/09/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Charlotte/Oklahoma City OVER 187 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New Orleans/Dallas-6.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Utah/San Antonio under 193 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New York/Orlando -10.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Indiana/Atlanta -6.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New Jersey/Detroit OVER 189.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Indiana/Atlanta OVER 212 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]New Orleans/Dallas OVER 195.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]LA/Portland OVER 195.5 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Phoenix -2/Memphis 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]LA -1/Portland 04/10/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Detroit/Indiana[/FONT][FONT=&quot] over 205 04/11/09
Detroit/Indiana over -2 04/11/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Orlando/New Jersey Over 196.5 04/11/09
Charlotte/Chicago -9.5 04/11/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Charlotte/Chicago OVE5 199.5 04/11/09[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
Phoenix/Minnesota +2 04/11/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Phoenix/Minnesota UNDER 228.5 04/11/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]---------------------------------------------------------<o></o>[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]NBA PLAY OFFS 2009<o></o>[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]New Orleans/Denver over 195 4/19/09
New Orleans/Denver -6 4/19/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Miami/Atlanta Under 187 04/19/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Miami /Atlanta +4.5 04/19/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]LA/Utah +211<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Utah/LA -11.5<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Detroit/Cleveland -9.5 4/22/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Portland/Houston +5.5 4/21/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Denver/New Orleans Over 196.5 4/22/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Denver/New Orleans Denver -5.5 4/22/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Cleveland/Detroit Cleveland -4.5 4/24/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Cleveland/Detroit Under 178 4/24/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Houston/Portland Houston -4.5 4/24/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Houston/Portland Under 184.5 4/24/09<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]4/25/09----------------------------------------------------<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]Denver @ New Orleans
The Pick: Denver +4.5
San Antonio@ Dallas
The Pick: Dallas PK
The Pick: Under 187.5
Atlanta @ Miami
The Pick: Under 186
LA Lakers @ Utah
The Pick - Lakers PK[FONT=&quot]<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o

> </o

>[/FONT]
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt; height: 450.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]Memphis -4.5
N. Carolina UNDER 162
Kansas University (+1.5) over Michigan st.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
N. Carolina (-8.5) over Gonzaga
Oklahoma University over Syracuse
Arizona/Louisville OVER 139.5
Memphis/Missouri Over 141.5
Nova +2.5
Louisville over Arizona straight up
UTEP vs. Oregon st. Over 131.
UTEP -1 over Oregon st
Notre Dame -4 over Penn
Baylor -1 3/31/09
Baylor over 136 3/31/09
UTEP/Oregon St. Over 134 3/31/09
UTEP straight up over Oregan St. 3/31/09
Baylor -4 over Penn. St. 4/02/09
Baylor/Penn st. Under 138 4/02/09
UTEP straight up over Oregon St 4/03/09
UTEP under 133.5 4/03/09
Uconn -4 04/04/09
Uconn OVER 4/04/.R 133.5 04/05/09
N. Carolina -7 4/04/09
Carolina UNDER 159 04/04/09
North Carolina -7.5 04/06/09
North Carolina /MSU over 153.5

<o

></o

>[/FONT]
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> [FONT=&quot]<o

> </o

>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o

> </o

>[/FONT]
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border: medium none ; border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr style=""> <td style="border: 1pt solid black; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]LEGEND:<o></o>[/FONT]
</td> <td style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: black black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]WRONG<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]RIGHT<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TIE[/FONT][FONT=&quot]<o></o>[/FONT]
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]STATS:<o></o>[/FONT]
</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color black black -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; padding: 0in 5.4pt; width: 239.4pt;" valign="top" width="319"> [FONT=&quot]Total: 46-23-1<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Pick Percentage: 65.7%<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

jungular10 · Apr 26, 2009

Love the Boston play. Boston wants and needs to end this series as quickly as possible. On Houston as well.

Mobdeeper7239 · Apr 26, 2009

bro i got hit up on houston the other night when they blew the cover, worst blown cover i seen in a while

im liking your plays you been hot in the playoffs i see alot of green

im on the cavs, but i agree with pretty much everything tho

saka · Apr 26, 2009

Hey Kirby.

Nice picks. I am tailing you again on this. I liked the write up too some good points I wouldn't have thought about.

7/8 of these will be nice

BOL to us :toast:

chaosman · Apr 26, 2009

love your stats and analysis bro. hope we lock it down for tomorrow

I_Want_that · Apr 26, 2009

Hey Kirby - been a round here for a while but never posted. I used to play ball at Washington U a few years back but tore my Achilles tendon in my 2nd year out there and was never able to get it back. I did manage to learn more and more about team psyche and how teams get ready for big games which has helped me a lot during capping games but I think you have the natural ability...keep up the good work, look forward to seeing your plays

jacksonjohn · Apr 26, 2009

Kirby, first thanks for posting. My question is are you playing all of these with your money? It seems strange that you think the oddsmaker has made a mistake on every side and total. You seem too intelligent for that. My thinking is that you are just sharing your opinion on everything, but not betting them all. I want to only play the ones you are betting. Please help me out on that.

MCB · Apr 26, 2009

like em all exept philly. I hope you do well today!

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

jacksonjohn said:
Kirby, first thanks for posting. My question is are you playing all of these with your money? It seems strange that you think the oddsmaker has made a mistake on every side and total. You seem too intelligent for that. My thinking is that you are just sharing your opinion on everything, but not betting them all. I want to only play the ones you are betting. Please help me out on that.

To answer your question I do play all of these. now, they aren't all Single bets. The ones that I'm most confident on I play straight. Them I put side parleys (no more than three game) to reward myself If I win.) So Short answer yes. I do Play all the picks I put up Do I play em all the same way. No. This is however, how I'm paying bills these days. haha.

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

chaosman said:
love your stats and analysis bro. hope we lock it down for tomorrow

Thanks dude! gets get paid

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

I_Want_that said:
Hey Kirby - been a round here for a while but never posted. I used to play ball at Washington U a few years back but tore my Achilles tendon in my 2nd year out there and was never able to get it back. I did manage to learn more and more about team psyche and how teams get ready for big games which has helped me a lot during capping games but I think you have the natural ability...keep up the good work, look forward to seeing your plays

Thanks man, I think the athletes in these games are just amazing. so being one of them I'm honored!

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

jungular10 said:
Love the Boston play. Boston wants and needs to end this series as quickly as possible. On Houston as well.

Lets get em!

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

saka said:
Hey Kirby.

Nice picks. I am tailing you again on this. I liked the write up too some good points I wouldn't have thought about.

7/8 of these will be nice BOL to us :toast:

I'll do my best for 8/8

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

MCB said:
like em all exept philly. I hope you do well today!

philly has a lot of heart man! Best of luck dude.

uscubb28 · Apr 26, 2009

kirb yea man didnt think you would be on philly today think orlando handles them easily!! gl tho im on all the rest

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

thanks man. I appreciate the support. Good luck to you brother

jacksonjohn · Apr 26, 2009

KirbyZhang said:
To answer your question I do play all of these. now, they aren't all Single bets. The ones that I'm most confident on I play straight. Them I put side parleys (no more than three game) to reward myself If I win.) So Short answer yes. I do Play all the picks I put up Do I play em all the same way. No. This is however, how I'm paying bills these days. haha.

Thanks for your quick reply. Would you be willing to designate the ones you are most confident in? Thanks and gl.

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

Yes, here they are.

Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 110.00 to win 100.00 Result: Pending
Magic(Orlando)
76ers(Philadelphia) 04/26/09(18:40 ET)
76ers(Philadelphia) +4

2) BET ID=280171681
Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 220.00 to win 200.00 Result: Pending
Cavaliers(Cleveland)
Pistons(Detroit) 04/26/09(15:35 ET)
Under 177

Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 1100.00 to win 1000.00 Result: Pending
Cavaliers(Cleveland)
Pistons(Detroit) 04/26/09(15:35 ET)
Cleveland -9

Also the under 200 on the boston game, but... too late now.

jacksonjohn · Apr 26, 2009

KirbyZhang said:
Yes, here they are.

Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 110.00 to win 100.00 Result: Pending
Magic(Orlando)
76ers(Philadelphia) 04/26/09(18:40 ET)
76ers(Philadelphia) +4

2) BET ID=280171681
Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 220.00 to win 200.00 Result: Pending
Cavaliers(Cleveland)
Pistons(Detroit) 04/26/09(15:35 ET)
Under 177

Straight Wager 04/26/09 00:49 ET
bet 1100.00 to win 1000.00 Result: Pending
Cavaliers(Cleveland)
Pistons(Detroit) 04/26/09(15:35 ET)
Cleveland -9

Also the under 200 on the boston game, but... too late now.

Super. If you could either put them in bold or * them, it would help those of us who like to play fewer games. Thanks and gl.

KirbyZhang · Apr 26, 2009

jacksonjohn said:
Super. If you could either put them in bold or * them, it would help those of us who like to play fewer games. Thanks and gl.

the man with big requests. okay. will do.

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