Well, I hope you guys had a okay day. I keep getting these even days, but I went really big on the Denver game, so I'm a little bit more up then I am even. Tomorrow is a day to really beware. I advise everyone whose betting to stick to a strategy and not start gambling. Hedge your bets and manage your money. Vegas is playing mind games, and I'll explain why.
lets get started.
Boston @ Chicago
---------------------
The Pick: Boston +3
The Pick: Boston/Chicago OVER 195.5
Predicted Outcome: Boston 101, Chicago 100
Well, this has been the most exciting series, with both teams as evenly matched as any other match up. What does that tell you? Well think about it statistically, if we think (and it's not only our opinion, they've proved it to us with the three overtimes, and the record) that they're evenly matched what is the better thing to do mathematically..give...or take? exactly... take. Take Boston and the three points. If you take Chicago your committing them to the responsibility. If you take points you're cutting slack, people really thought I was nuts giving New Orleans 10.5. I'll give New Orleans 15 if it called for it, but don't you dare as a investor tell me it's smart to give points away in this close series. Look at this
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="6">
</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Shooting </td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">3pt shots</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Free Throws</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Rebounds</td><td class="matchupHeader">
</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupSubHeader">Date</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Teams</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Score</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Line</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Result</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Half</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FTM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Tot.</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">OFF</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">TO</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/28/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">104</td><td class="matchupCells">198.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">47</td><td class="matchupCells">34-85</td><td class="bad">40.0%</td><td class="matchupCells">9-23</td><td class="good">39.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">27-32</td><td class="good">84.4%</td><td class="good">59</td><td class="good">14</td><td class="good">13</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">106</td><td class="matchupCells">-7.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCells">44</td><td class="matchupCells">42-86</td><td class="good">48.8%</td><td class="matchupCells">6-16</td><td class="good">37.5%</td><td class="matchupCells">16-24</td><td class="bad">66.7%</td><td class="matchupCells">49</td><td class="bad">9</td><td class="good">10</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">04/26/2009</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">118</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">202.5</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">46</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">40-95</td><td class="badWhite">42.1%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">10-23</td><td class="goodWhite">43.5%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">28-32</td><td class="goodWhite">87.5%</td><td class="goodWhite">54</td><td class="goodWhite">14</td><td class="badWhite">19</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">121</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">-3</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">45</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">45-93</td><td class="goodWhite">48.4%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">5-12</td><td class="goodWhite">41.7%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">26-35</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">74.3%</td><td class="goodWhite">62</td><td class="badWhite">10</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">15</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/23/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">107</td><td class="matchupCells">202.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">59</td><td class="matchupCells">38-79</td><td class="good">48.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">12-21</td><td class="good">57.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">19-24</td><td class="good">79.2%</td><td class="bad">48</td><td class="bad">8</td><td class="good">13</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">86</td><td class="matchupCells">-4</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> Under</td><td class="matchupCells">37</td><td class="matchupCells">30-80</td><td class="bad">37.5%</td><td class="matchupCells">9-22</td><td class="good">40.9%</td><td class="matchupCells">17-27</td><td class="bad">63.0%</td><td class="good">58</td><td class="good">15</td><td class="bad">22</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">04/20/2009</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">115</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">196.5</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text"> ATS</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">61</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">40-80</td><td class="goodWhite">50.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">9-20</td><td class="goodWhite">45.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">26-29</td><td class="goodWhite">89.7%</td><td class="badWhite">41</td><td class="badWhite">8</td><td class="goodWhite">11</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">118</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">-9</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">58</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">47-96</td><td class="goodWhite">49.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">7-16</td><td class="goodWhite">43.7%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">17-25</td><td class="badWhite">68.0%</td><td class="goodWhite">59</td><td class="goodWhite">21</td><td class="goodWhite">12</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/18/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">105</td><td class="matchupCells">199</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">53</td><td class="matchupCells">41-96</td><td class="bad">42.7%</td><td class="matchupCells">3-17</td><td class="bad">17.6%</td><td class="matchupCells">20-22</td><td class="good">90.9%</td><td class="good">66</td><td class="bad">10</td><td class="matchupCells">16</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">103</td><td class="matchupCells">-8.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> Over</td><td class="matchupCells">44</td><td class="matchupCells">39-99</td><td class="bad">39.4%</td><td class="matchupCells">4-16</td><td class="bad">25.0%</td><td class="matchupCells">21-27</td><td class="good">77.8%</td><td class="good">57</td><td class="bad">10</td><td class="good">12</td></tr></tbody></table>
okay.. see what I'm saying.. Boston by 2, Chicago by 3, Boston by 21, Boston by 3, Chicago by 2. In this series, who owns the largest win Margin? Boston... by 21, and whats the largest Chicago has won by? 3.... Whats that mean? that means you are 70/30 if you take Boston and the points. This is simple math guys. worse case, you push, and get your money back. if you force a commitment of 2.5 or 3 to Chicago and they win by 2, or even a 1 point buzzer beater then guess what? you lose. that's what Vegas wants you to do.. People think "oh yeah, they're at home, Chicago by three..." it's better to give the money to the homeless dude who peed on your car door cause you told him you had no change when you were walking into the grocery store. Also I want to examine the Reasons for the over. I don't know if you knew this or not, but the chances of two teams hitting overtime are less than 5%. that's right.. This is a actual playoff record. 1 in 20 games go into overtime. think about this week and last week.... and the week before... about 22 games a week, how many go into overtime... that's less than 5 percent. and you know, this series has 3 out of 5 overtimes. That is amazing! history will continue to repeat itself. It'll be close, I've taken it under at 200, because both teams have solid defense, but I really like the unders in BOSTON. Chicago will try to pace up the game at home, and if they are soo evenly matched they should hit the over before the end of REGULATION. but if there is OT, and I really don't think there will be, but if there is, you have the over, as we've learned from the unders in Boston...
Orlando @ Philadelphia
--------------------------
The Pick: Philadelphia -PK
The Pick: Philadelphia UNDER 184
Predicted Outcome Philadelphia 87, Orlando 82
I'm sure there's big talk about this game right now. "Oh Howard is out! I can't wait tell my dad I need $50,000 for classes this semester and then secretly put it on the over.." Let me tell you something, this is how college kids come up with the "this one time I lost 50K" story. okay. So usually, and by usually I mean the last 4 times this game has been played the Vegas total has been 190, 191, 188, 189... Defensive player of the year goes out... people who know nothing about the game see "defensive player of the year is out? big money on the over" and then Vegas lowers the total to 184? don't you see this is a set up. Pay attention folks!!! please this is an easy bet. The score would be lucky to get into the 170s tomorrow. First of all you shouldn't get the D player of the year reward for just blocking shots. I hope you guys see the bigger picture. Sure he blocks people in the paint, and without him the opponent will be able to get into the inside, BUT. what'll happen? you got it! it'll be a lopsided game... Howard scores so much for them, sure he sucks at free throws, as someone so politely put it on my thread from yesterday. So your justification is that we're going to free throw our way to the over? you have fun with that okay? and when you double up your 50K from dad tell him that I borrowed 50 thousand from his 401K and put it on the Dallas game, but it's okay because Sportsbook.com pays you in about 3-4 weeks so i'll put it back in there soon, and it'll all be peachy. So now, why not Philly by 6? well they could very possibly take it by even ten, the thing is they haven't won by more than three ever in this series, I just don't really feel comfortable with that spread, like I said maybe under 5, because without Howard they'll get into the paint alot easier. Both Andre's are good player's and are consistant, but the media kinda hyped up Howard not being there, I don't really want them to think they won the game before it already started. it's really your call. Philly -5.5 isn't a bad bet. I'm just posting the more careful pick. The value is a little worse but if you parley it with one other pick you'll get that value back.
<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="stathead"><td colspan="5">Team Leaders</td></tr><tr class="colhead"><td>POINTS</td> <td>REBOUNDS</td> <td>ASSISTS</td> <td>BLOCKS</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" align="center"><td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>PTS</td><td>20.6</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>FG%</td><td>.572</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>79</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>REB</td><td>13.8</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>O/D</td><td>4.3/9.6</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>79</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Hedo Turkoglu
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>AST</td><td>4.9</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>A/TO</td><td>1.84</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>36.6</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>77</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>BLK</td><td>2.92</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>STL</td><td>0.97</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>7</td></tr></tbody></table>
</td></tr></tbody></table>there goes your 20.6 points, and your rebounding... No more solid defense, no more Offense... You think the bookmakers don't know anything so they put the line at 184? come on now, they're beggin for the over. So when it goes under don't be one of the people in disbelief covering their mouth like they got the swine flu okay..
Portland @ Houston
-------------------------
The Pick: Houston PK
The Pick: Under 179.5
Predicted Outcome: Houston 87, Portland 83
With the record these two teams have in this series you'd think I'd have alot to say about em'. And by the way I just noticed tomorrow they put all the dramatic games together huh? all the 3-2, 2-3s.. anyway I don't really have that much to say. If portland thinks that they haven't been getting calls in houston well, guess what you're in houston again. and you're still not gonna get calls, you know why? cause its not about the calls that lose you the game here, its about you inability to play defense on the road. Houston is SOLID defensivly at home. It has gone, and will go under in Houston. (Just don't take it under 179.) Houston will play Solid defense, Portland will try to keep Yao out of the paint, and when they cannot Artesc will shoot from ther perimiter.. this isn't something new, its like watching the 389th episode of Family Matters and betting on if Steve Urkle shows up and asks "did i do that?" Houston is a Defense strong team, that goes up big and gives it all away, But I say it'll be close the whole game, with houston prevailing in the end. Don't touch the spread. Its bad news, Houston, like the lake show always gives up the lead in the end because they have... and by they i mean the big old guys on that team.. have no stamina, compared to the younger portland... they always give it back, but experiance, as we've seen outweighs endurence... sometimes... unless its sex... well.. maybe even sex... ha!
1. Boston +3**
2. Philadelphia PK**
3. Philadelphia/Orlando UNDER 184**
4. Houston/Portland Under 179.5*
5. Boston/Chicago Over 195.5*
6. Houston PK*
Thanks for everyone who helped me clear up the mess last night. I'm glad I'm back and I'm glad I'm making you guys money. Lets have a good day tomorrow, and have a great night tonight.
-Kirby Zhang
lets get started.
Boston @ Chicago
---------------------
The Pick: Boston +3
The Pick: Boston/Chicago OVER 195.5
Predicted Outcome: Boston 101, Chicago 100
Well, this has been the most exciting series, with both teams as evenly matched as any other match up. What does that tell you? Well think about it statistically, if we think (and it's not only our opinion, they've proved it to us with the three overtimes, and the record) that they're evenly matched what is the better thing to do mathematically..give...or take? exactly... take. Take Boston and the three points. If you take Chicago your committing them to the responsibility. If you take points you're cutting slack, people really thought I was nuts giving New Orleans 10.5. I'll give New Orleans 15 if it called for it, but don't you dare as a investor tell me it's smart to give points away in this close series. Look at this
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="6">
</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Shooting </td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">3pt shots</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Free Throws</td><td class="matchupHeader" colspan="2">Rebounds</td><td class="matchupHeader">
</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupSubHeader">Date</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Teams</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Score</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Line</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Result</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Half</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FGM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">FTM-A</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Pct</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">Tot.</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">OFF</td><td class="matchupSubHeader">TO</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/28/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">104</td><td class="matchupCells">198.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">47</td><td class="matchupCells">34-85</td><td class="bad">40.0%</td><td class="matchupCells">9-23</td><td class="good">39.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">27-32</td><td class="good">84.4%</td><td class="good">59</td><td class="good">14</td><td class="good">13</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">106</td><td class="matchupCells">-7.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCells">44</td><td class="matchupCells">42-86</td><td class="good">48.8%</td><td class="matchupCells">6-16</td><td class="good">37.5%</td><td class="matchupCells">16-24</td><td class="bad">66.7%</td><td class="matchupCells">49</td><td class="bad">9</td><td class="good">10</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">04/26/2009</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">118</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">202.5</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">46</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">40-95</td><td class="badWhite">42.1%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">10-23</td><td class="goodWhite">43.5%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">28-32</td><td class="goodWhite">87.5%</td><td class="goodWhite">54</td><td class="goodWhite">14</td><td class="badWhite">19</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">121</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">-3</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">45</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">45-93</td><td class="goodWhite">48.4%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">5-12</td><td class="goodWhite">41.7%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">26-35</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">74.3%</td><td class="goodWhite">62</td><td class="badWhite">10</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">15</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/23/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">107</td><td class="matchupCells">202.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">59</td><td class="matchupCells">38-79</td><td class="good">48.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">12-21</td><td class="good">57.1%</td><td class="matchupCells">19-24</td><td class="good">79.2%</td><td class="bad">48</td><td class="bad">8</td><td class="good">13</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">86</td><td class="matchupCells">-4</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> Under</td><td class="matchupCells">37</td><td class="matchupCells">30-80</td><td class="bad">37.5%</td><td class="matchupCells">9-22</td><td class="good">40.9%</td><td class="matchupCells">17-27</td><td class="bad">63.0%</td><td class="good">58</td><td class="good">15</td><td class="bad">22</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">04/20/2009</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">115</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">196.5</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text"> ATS</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">61</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">40-80</td><td class="goodWhite">50.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">9-20</td><td class="goodWhite">45.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">26-29</td><td class="goodWhite">89.7%</td><td class="badWhite">41</td><td class="badWhite">8</td><td class="goodWhite">11</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">
</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">118</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">-9</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite Text">SU Over</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">58</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">47-96</td><td class="goodWhite">49.0%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">7-16</td><td class="goodWhite">43.7%</td><td class="matchupCellsWhite">17-25</td><td class="badWhite">68.0%</td><td class="goodWhite">59</td><td class="goodWhite">21</td><td class="goodWhite">12</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">04/18/2009</td><td class="matchupCells Text">CHICAGO</td><td class="matchupCells">105</td><td class="matchupCells">199</td><td class="matchupCells Text">SU ATS</td><td class="matchupCells">53</td><td class="matchupCells">41-96</td><td class="bad">42.7%</td><td class="matchupCells">3-17</td><td class="bad">17.6%</td><td class="matchupCells">20-22</td><td class="good">90.9%</td><td class="good">66</td><td class="bad">10</td><td class="matchupCells">16</td></tr><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
</td><td class="matchupCells Text">BOSTON</td><td class="matchupCells">103</td><td class="matchupCells">-8.5</td><td class="matchupCells Text"> Over</td><td class="matchupCells">44</td><td class="matchupCells">39-99</td><td class="bad">39.4%</td><td class="matchupCells">4-16</td><td class="bad">25.0%</td><td class="matchupCells">21-27</td><td class="good">77.8%</td><td class="good">57</td><td class="bad">10</td><td class="good">12</td></tr></tbody></table>
okay.. see what I'm saying.. Boston by 2, Chicago by 3, Boston by 21, Boston by 3, Chicago by 2. In this series, who owns the largest win Margin? Boston... by 21, and whats the largest Chicago has won by? 3.... Whats that mean? that means you are 70/30 if you take Boston and the points. This is simple math guys. worse case, you push, and get your money back. if you force a commitment of 2.5 or 3 to Chicago and they win by 2, or even a 1 point buzzer beater then guess what? you lose. that's what Vegas wants you to do.. People think "oh yeah, they're at home, Chicago by three..." it's better to give the money to the homeless dude who peed on your car door cause you told him you had no change when you were walking into the grocery store. Also I want to examine the Reasons for the over. I don't know if you knew this or not, but the chances of two teams hitting overtime are less than 5%. that's right.. This is a actual playoff record. 1 in 20 games go into overtime. think about this week and last week.... and the week before... about 22 games a week, how many go into overtime... that's less than 5 percent. and you know, this series has 3 out of 5 overtimes. That is amazing! history will continue to repeat itself. It'll be close, I've taken it under at 200, because both teams have solid defense, but I really like the unders in BOSTON. Chicago will try to pace up the game at home, and if they are soo evenly matched they should hit the over before the end of REGULATION. but if there is OT, and I really don't think there will be, but if there is, you have the over, as we've learned from the unders in Boston...
Orlando @ Philadelphia
--------------------------
The Pick: Philadelphia -PK
The Pick: Philadelphia UNDER 184
Predicted Outcome Philadelphia 87, Orlando 82
I'm sure there's big talk about this game right now. "Oh Howard is out! I can't wait tell my dad I need $50,000 for classes this semester and then secretly put it on the over.." Let me tell you something, this is how college kids come up with the "this one time I lost 50K" story. okay. So usually, and by usually I mean the last 4 times this game has been played the Vegas total has been 190, 191, 188, 189... Defensive player of the year goes out... people who know nothing about the game see "defensive player of the year is out? big money on the over" and then Vegas lowers the total to 184? don't you see this is a set up. Pay attention folks!!! please this is an easy bet. The score would be lucky to get into the 170s tomorrow. First of all you shouldn't get the D player of the year reward for just blocking shots. I hope you guys see the bigger picture. Sure he blocks people in the paint, and without him the opponent will be able to get into the inside, BUT. what'll happen? you got it! it'll be a lopsided game... Howard scores so much for them, sure he sucks at free throws, as someone so politely put it on my thread from yesterday. So your justification is that we're going to free throw our way to the over? you have fun with that okay? and when you double up your 50K from dad tell him that I borrowed 50 thousand from his 401K and put it on the Dallas game, but it's okay because Sportsbook.com pays you in about 3-4 weeks so i'll put it back in there soon, and it'll all be peachy. So now, why not Philly by 6? well they could very possibly take it by even ten, the thing is they haven't won by more than three ever in this series, I just don't really feel comfortable with that spread, like I said maybe under 5, because without Howard they'll get into the paint alot easier. Both Andre's are good player's and are consistant, but the media kinda hyped up Howard not being there, I don't really want them to think they won the game before it already started. it's really your call. Philly -5.5 isn't a bad bet. I'm just posting the more careful pick. The value is a little worse but if you parley it with one other pick you'll get that value back.
<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="stathead"><td colspan="5">Team Leaders</td></tr><tr class="colhead"><td>POINTS</td> <td>REBOUNDS</td> <td>ASSISTS</td> <td>BLOCKS</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" align="center"><td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>PTS</td><td>20.6</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>FG%</td><td>.572</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>79</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>REB</td><td>13.8</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>O/D</td><td>4.3/9.6</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>79</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Hedo Turkoglu
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>AST</td><td>4.9</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>A/TO</td><td>1.84</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>36.6</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>77</td></tr> </tbody></table>
</td> <td width="20%"> Dwight Howard
<table width="100" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>BLK</td><td>2.92</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>STL</td><td>0.97</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="left"><td>MIN</td><td>35.7</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="left"><td>GP</td><td>7</td></tr></tbody></table>
</td></tr></tbody></table>there goes your 20.6 points, and your rebounding... No more solid defense, no more Offense... You think the bookmakers don't know anything so they put the line at 184? come on now, they're beggin for the over. So when it goes under don't be one of the people in disbelief covering their mouth like they got the swine flu okay..
Portland @ Houston
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The Pick: Houston PK
The Pick: Under 179.5
Predicted Outcome: Houston 87, Portland 83
With the record these two teams have in this series you'd think I'd have alot to say about em'. And by the way I just noticed tomorrow they put all the dramatic games together huh? all the 3-2, 2-3s.. anyway I don't really have that much to say. If portland thinks that they haven't been getting calls in houston well, guess what you're in houston again. and you're still not gonna get calls, you know why? cause its not about the calls that lose you the game here, its about you inability to play defense on the road. Houston is SOLID defensivly at home. It has gone, and will go under in Houston. (Just don't take it under 179.) Houston will play Solid defense, Portland will try to keep Yao out of the paint, and when they cannot Artesc will shoot from ther perimiter.. this isn't something new, its like watching the 389th episode of Family Matters and betting on if Steve Urkle shows up and asks "did i do that?" Houston is a Defense strong team, that goes up big and gives it all away, But I say it'll be close the whole game, with houston prevailing in the end. Don't touch the spread. Its bad news, Houston, like the lake show always gives up the lead in the end because they have... and by they i mean the big old guys on that team.. have no stamina, compared to the younger portland... they always give it back, but experiance, as we've seen outweighs endurence... sometimes... unless its sex... well.. maybe even sex... ha!
Here's the Kirby Zhang Confidence Ranking
1. Boston +3**
2. Philadelphia PK**
3. Philadelphia/Orlando UNDER 184**
4. Houston/Portland Under 179.5*
5. Boston/Chicago Over 195.5*
6. Houston PK*
Thanks for everyone who helped me clear up the mess last night. I'm glad I'm back and I'm glad I'm making you guys money. Lets have a good day tomorrow, and have a great night tonight.
-Kirby Zhang
