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Mel Kiper Jr.Football analyst
So what will a team do when everybody else is gone and it's one of those two names still available? Do they stick to the board and say, "We're simply going to take the best player, period," or do they set a different rule for running backs? All I know is this: Some of the best pure football players in this draft are running backs.
A player with an asterisk next to his name has a year of eligibility remaining. Two asterisks denotes two years.
I've made a bunch of changes in this mock from the 1.0 version. This isn't one of them. It's not out of the question that this pick could factor into the future at quarterback for the Browns, whether that's a drafted QB or one they acquire via trade. But Garrett is, right now, clearly the No. 1 player in this draft class and would be an immediate help at a position where having an elite player on a rookie contract is like stealing.
Like the Browns, the 49ers could also use this pick to solve the quarterback question either via draft or trade. Given the current state of the rebuild, I suspect they're more likely to draft a quarterback or move down for more picks. Trubisky is my top-rated QB and the likeliest of the current crop to land here. Also, don't be so sure that new coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't want to work with a young QB. He worked with a young Kirk Cousins and did some good things with Brian Hoyer.
I've heard a lot of people discuss whether this pick is worth, say, acquiring a player like quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. I think it's worth remembering that Chicago doesn't have to be in the "Garoppolo or bust" camp. They could try to acquire Tony Romo. They could look to sign Tyrod Taylor, Mike Glennon or another free agent. In any event, I see them as more likely to find a veteran QB and go with a great defensive player here. Allen qualifies as a defensive lineman who can be moved around and create disruption.
[h=2]4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-13[/h]Jamal Adams, S, LSU*
This might be a high draft slot for the traditional version of safety, but Adams is more than that. He's a true hybrid who never has to come off the field, because he can run extremely well and cover but also is a beast as an in-the-box defender. The Giants saw Landon Collins break out this year, and Adams has that kind of potential.
I went back and forth here between Lattimore and Mike Williams, the wide receiver out of Clemson. I settled on Lattimore, and I think the Titans could end up with the best cornerback on their board here. They had a heck of a time covering anybody last season, and cornerbacks cost a mint in free agency (and you won't find great ones there anyway). Lattimore isn't going to come in as an All-Pro, but the potential is significant and the Titans need bodies.
"Wait -- what?" I can hear you. Let me explain. The Jets do have a quarterback problem to solve, but that seems more likely to come in free agency after they took a QB in Round 2 just last year. They could also draft a defender here, but the top cornerback is off the board. So why Fournette? For one, if they truly go with the best player available here, there's a real chance it's him, just as Ezekiel Elliott was for Dallas at No. 4 last year. Secondly, they know they can get a ton of reps from Fournette right now, and this is a team that needs to be better.
The Chargers will be getting back the ballhawk who left town when Eric Weddle went to the Ravens last year. One thing that makes Hooker particularly interesting here is that the Chargers already have one of the great pass-rushers in the NFL in Hooker's former teammate Joey Bosa. Hooker is the type of player who can help a great pass rush produce points going the other way on errant throws.
The Panthers need a pass-rusher, and Charlton has put himself in this value range. He closed the season on an absolute tear, and he doesn't just do it with speed. He offers legitimate size that you'd typically look for in a 4-3 edge defender, with length and weight of just a hair under 280 pounds.
Age is starting to catch up to the Bengals in spots on defense, and speed at linebacker has been an issue for a couple of years. At about 240 pounds, Foster isn't a lightweight at linebacker but has the range of a speedy hybrid type. He can fly to the sidelines, and he's an explosive tackler. The Bengals get younger at linebacker and an immediate starter.
This is obviously based on the idea that Tyrod Taylor would be playing somewhere else. We'll be able to say that definitively, one way or the other, in March. If there's a big question here, it's whether Watson is any more ready to start in Year 1 than a quarterback who's currently on the roster. I think the Bills will go a different direction if they're able to bring in a veteran quarterback in March.
By their recent standards, the Saints took a small step forward on defense last season, but they really went only from "worst" to "almost the worst." They simply have to get better on that side of the ball if they want to be more than a .500-range team, even with a great offense. Thomas can be a terror as a pass-rusher, but he's a pretty complete player and simply makes teams better.
In this scenario, two quarterbacks are off the board. Since I can't simulate a trade here (Jimmy Garoppolo?), this pick is made based on the idea that Cleveland has found a QB through either trade or free agency and doesn't want to reach on another QB. White would come in and at least partially address a major need area (coverage, in all aspects).
The Cardinals have patched it together at linebacker for the past couple of years, and I think Davis or Reuben Foster here makes a lot of sense. It gives them some flexibility with Deone Bucannon and another explosive athlete on the defensive side of the ball. Davis can play right away.
Wide receiver has been a position of frustration for the Eagles, and it's imperative they add at least one more reliable pass-catcher next year, or they risk slowing the development of QB Carson Wentz. This is a spot where the Eagles could be considering another position (tackle comes to mind), but the value isn't there in some cases, and with Williams it definitely is. He's a big, quality target for Wentz to work with.
Dwight Freeney is long gone, but now so is Robert Mathis and his 123.5 career sacks. There is no question the Colts need to continue to work on the offensive line, but there simply isn't appropriate value at tackle at this spot in the draft. They also really need a pass-rusher, and McKinley is explosive off the edge.
The Ravens probably want to come out of the draft with more than one cornerback, so they might as well start early. Jones could add a little more muscle to his frame, but he has length and can flat-out cover, and if a QB makes a mistake, he can show off hands, pluck the ball and head the other way.
At what point should a team forget about what's conventional and just take the best football player, period? That's a question that could come into play with Cook, whom some teams will have graded as nearly on par with Leonard Fournette. The Redskins like Rob Kelley, but they don't have a home-run hitter like Cook, who could help take some pressure off QB Kirk Cousins, assuming he's back.
I was between Howard and the next guy off the board for this pick but ended up with Howard for two reasons: One, the Titans need pass-catchers, and Howard is a weapon who doesn't have to take away from Delanie Walker. Put them both on the field; it's just provides QB Marcus Mariota with more weapons. Two, Walker is 32, and if he gets injured, Howard would provide immediate insurance. Get Howard now and a wide receiver later (or in free agency).
Mike Evans is officially a star, but fellow receiver Vincent Jackson is an unrestricted free agent, and the Bucs don't want a situation in which defenses can just assume they'll be doubling Evans. Davis won't be running at the combine because of a small injury, but he's safely in Round 1 and would be a good value in this range (my buddy Todd McShay had him at No. 5 in his mock draft last week). Feed Jameis.
The young quarterbacks have gotten a lot of blame, but the quarterback play in Denver in 2016 wasn't any worse than the team got in 2015, when the Broncos won a Super Bowl. The big difference was how bad the offensive line was. Denver couldn't run the ball or protect consistently, and thus an offseason makeover could be coming. Bolles might not be a plug-and-play at tackle, but Denver needs talent, and new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy can figure it out from there.
