There was a time when I used to call this draft season. Now, I increasingly hear it called "mock draft season." And while I'm bound to contribute, now that everybody seems to have a mock draft it's only made teams play it closer and closer to the vest when it comes to which players they claim to like. As it should be.
So with the first mock draft of the year, let me offer up a couple reminders:
• Most teams are still really early in their evaluation process. Draft boards aren't remotely set. So in the absence of any teams really having a sense who their "best player available" might be I'm projecting a bit more on need at this point.
• I simply can't project any trades this early in the process. Teams needs to have a better sense of player value up and down the board before they can get too far into those discussions.
• The draft order for the final four teams is based on regular season record. It's not a playoff prediction.
With that said, have fun diving into the first look of "mock draft season" and feel free to offer your feedback.
1Jameis WinstonTampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: QB
Analysis: The bottom line is Winston is the most advanced on-field quarterback in the draft, and while the Buccaneers have a nice set of weapons for an emerging quarterback to utilize there's little evidence they have a future franchise quarterback on the current roster. Questions about Winston's maturity and off-field decision-making are more than fair and could have him written off some draft boards if he can't convince teams he can be a franchise leader. But on the field you get a big, durable, mobile, strong-armed talent with a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. I would not draft with him with the goal of starting him in Week 1 -- his 2014 season proved there's work to be done -- but if Winston realizes his potential, he's a possible superstar.
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2Marcus MariotaTennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 211POS: QB
Analysis: The Titans have said all the right things about Zach Mettenberger, but based on what we saw from him in 2014, there are considerable questions about his NFL ceiling. Offensive fit and the ability to adapt are big questions around Mariota, but he's an elite talent and has the chance to be special if a team is patient with him. Mariota has a great work ethic, exceptional athletic tools, enough arm to drive the ball down the field and on intermediate throws and he did improve in his ability to get through progressions, anticipate and deliver with good placement this season. The question is whether he can look as special outside the confines of the Oregon offense. If Tennessee doesn't like either of the top two quarterbacks, this is a pretty obvious trade-up position.
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3Leonard WilliamsJacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 290POS: DE
Analysis: If you drop need and go on "best player available" -- something I believe really does happen more and more, given the unpredictable nature of the quarterback position in particular -- Williams is a contender to go No. 1 overall. A versatile and relentless defensive lineman, he's a good fit in Jacksonville's scheme and is so tantalizing because you're adding a disruptor, a player who has great awareness against the run but can batter both guards and tackles as a pass-rusher, too. This is a player you can say would help every team in the draft. The Jags need O-line help, but the value here just isn't good enough.
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4Amari CooperOakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: I can see the Raiders also targeting one of the next two picks here, as they could really use another pass-rusher to take some of the pressure off Khalil Mack, who was exceptional as a rookie but is actually a better run defender than pass-rusher at this point. That said, the Raiders have also likely found their franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, and they really need to add a high-level wide receiver in that offense. James Jones was adequate, but the yards per catch was a problem, and Andre Holmes is a weapon, though a complementary one. Cooper can be a Reggie Wayne-like starter for years in the right offense.
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5Randy GregoryWashington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 245POS: DE
Analysis: Gregory is the type of pass-rushing talent that can transcend systems. Long, athletic and highly explosive coming off the edge, he's a little undersized as a classic 4-3 defensive end and could play in space a little better as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But he can flat out cause disruption -- not just as a pass-rusher, mind you, because heâ??ll also play with good leverage against the run and make plays in the backfield. Washington should be purely in the "take a great football player" category, and Gregory fits the bill and can make them better as a rookie.
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PLAYER CARD
6Shane RayNew York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 240POS: DE
Analysis: The Jets could go in another direction in terms of defensive system now that former coach Rex Ryan isn't running point on that side of the ball, but they need to add a pure pass-rusher to go with the significant talent they have elsewhere along the defensive line regardless of system. Ray was arguably the most productive pass-rusher in college football this season and is no one-trick pony -- he really shows off an arsenal, a blend of technique, explosiveness and just relentlessness. The Jets have other needs, but if a quarterback isn't available here, I like Ray as a fit. Repeat after me: You can never have too many pass-rushers.
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7Landon CollinsChicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 212POS: S
Analysis: Safety play has been, without exaggerating, a borderline disaster for the Bears, extending beyond this season. Collins does a lot of his best work near the line of scrimmage, but he can certainly be effective playing off the line as a guy who anticipates well, makes good reads and takes proper angles. He comes in with a lot of experience, and for a defense that was such a mess, I like taking a player who offers a lot of versatility and won't need to come off the field much. I know cornerback is a need even after they used a first-round pick there last year, but I'm not sold on the value this high, and, given Chicago's litany of needs on D, they should go for the best player who can help them soon. Collins fits.
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PLAYER CARD
8Dante Fowler Jr.Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: A known commodity since he arrived on campus, Fowler actually frustrated me some coming into the year because the talent looked better than the production. But he really put it together this season and made more plays, finishing with 15 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He offers the strength to set the edge as a 4-3 defensive end and becomes quick for the position in that role. While he lacks what I consider elite explosiveness, he has great strength and can both set the edge and occasionally drive a blocker backward. The Falcons need this kind of a player, as the pass rush was a weakness all year.
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PLAYER CARD
9Brandon ScherffNew York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 320POS: OT
Analysis: While he's a left tackle at Iowa, I think Scherff could start his NFL career at right tackle and, if he were to deal with growing pains there, could end up at guard. If you then question a draft slot this high, getting a guy who can be solid at right tackle right away and potentially dominant at guard isn't too shabby. The guy is simply devastating as a run-blocker, and the Giants could draft him knowing he'll play right away and provide dividends. (Think of what Dallas got in drafting Zack Martin last season and moving him inside.) With apologies to those of you who want to see 250 targets to Odell Beckham, Jr., Scherff could help balance this offense.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
10T J ClemmingsSt. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: PittsburghClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams made more strides on defense this year after adding Aaron Donald as a clear "best player available" pick in the 2014 NFL draft, and the defense benefited greatly. But while their No. 2 overall pick, Greg Robinson, goes into 2015 as the starter at left tackle after looking better there for the most part over the last five weeks this season, the O-line still graded out poorly for me overall, and the Rams need to bring in more talent. Clemmings is a player who has come a long way since converting from defense, but he has arguably as high a ceiling as any tackle in this class and won't need to start his career at left tackle. Quarterback questions persist, but there's no fix to be found here after the top two guys are off the board. More help up front is needed.
PLAYER CARD
So with the first mock draft of the year, let me offer up a couple reminders:
• Most teams are still really early in their evaluation process. Draft boards aren't remotely set. So in the absence of any teams really having a sense who their "best player available" might be I'm projecting a bit more on need at this point.
• I simply can't project any trades this early in the process. Teams needs to have a better sense of player value up and down the board before they can get too far into those discussions.
• The draft order for the final four teams is based on regular season record. It's not a playoff prediction.
With that said, have fun diving into the first look of "mock draft season" and feel free to offer your feedback.
1Jameis WinstonTampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: QB
Analysis: The bottom line is Winston is the most advanced on-field quarterback in the draft, and while the Buccaneers have a nice set of weapons for an emerging quarterback to utilize there's little evidence they have a future franchise quarterback on the current roster. Questions about Winston's maturity and off-field decision-making are more than fair and could have him written off some draft boards if he can't convince teams he can be a franchise leader. But on the field you get a big, durable, mobile, strong-armed talent with a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. I would not draft with him with the goal of starting him in Week 1 -- his 2014 season proved there's work to be done -- but if Winston realizes his potential, he's a possible superstar.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
2Marcus MariotaTennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 211POS: QB
Analysis: The Titans have said all the right things about Zach Mettenberger, but based on what we saw from him in 2014, there are considerable questions about his NFL ceiling. Offensive fit and the ability to adapt are big questions around Mariota, but he's an elite talent and has the chance to be special if a team is patient with him. Mariota has a great work ethic, exceptional athletic tools, enough arm to drive the ball down the field and on intermediate throws and he did improve in his ability to get through progressions, anticipate and deliver with good placement this season. The question is whether he can look as special outside the confines of the Oregon offense. If Tennessee doesn't like either of the top two quarterbacks, this is a pretty obvious trade-up position.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
3Leonard WilliamsJacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 290POS: DE
Analysis: If you drop need and go on "best player available" -- something I believe really does happen more and more, given the unpredictable nature of the quarterback position in particular -- Williams is a contender to go No. 1 overall. A versatile and relentless defensive lineman, he's a good fit in Jacksonville's scheme and is so tantalizing because you're adding a disruptor, a player who has great awareness against the run but can batter both guards and tackles as a pass-rusher, too. This is a player you can say would help every team in the draft. The Jags need O-line help, but the value here just isn't good enough.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
4Amari CooperOakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: I can see the Raiders also targeting one of the next two picks here, as they could really use another pass-rusher to take some of the pressure off Khalil Mack, who was exceptional as a rookie but is actually a better run defender than pass-rusher at this point. That said, the Raiders have also likely found their franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, and they really need to add a high-level wide receiver in that offense. James Jones was adequate, but the yards per catch was a problem, and Andre Holmes is a weapon, though a complementary one. Cooper can be a Reggie Wayne-like starter for years in the right offense.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
5Randy GregoryWashington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 245POS: DE
Analysis: Gregory is the type of pass-rushing talent that can transcend systems. Long, athletic and highly explosive coming off the edge, he's a little undersized as a classic 4-3 defensive end and could play in space a little better as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But he can flat out cause disruption -- not just as a pass-rusher, mind you, because heâ??ll also play with good leverage against the run and make plays in the backfield. Washington should be purely in the "take a great football player" category, and Gregory fits the bill and can make them better as a rookie.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
6Shane RayNew York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 240POS: DE
Analysis: The Jets could go in another direction in terms of defensive system now that former coach Rex Ryan isn't running point on that side of the ball, but they need to add a pure pass-rusher to go with the significant talent they have elsewhere along the defensive line regardless of system. Ray was arguably the most productive pass-rusher in college football this season and is no one-trick pony -- he really shows off an arsenal, a blend of technique, explosiveness and just relentlessness. The Jets have other needs, but if a quarterback isn't available here, I like Ray as a fit. Repeat after me: You can never have too many pass-rushers.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
7Landon CollinsChicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 212POS: S
Analysis: Safety play has been, without exaggerating, a borderline disaster for the Bears, extending beyond this season. Collins does a lot of his best work near the line of scrimmage, but he can certainly be effective playing off the line as a guy who anticipates well, makes good reads and takes proper angles. He comes in with a lot of experience, and for a defense that was such a mess, I like taking a player who offers a lot of versatility and won't need to come off the field much. I know cornerback is a need even after they used a first-round pick there last year, but I'm not sold on the value this high, and, given Chicago's litany of needs on D, they should go for the best player who can help them soon. Collins fits.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
8Dante Fowler Jr.Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: A known commodity since he arrived on campus, Fowler actually frustrated me some coming into the year because the talent looked better than the production. But he really put it together this season and made more plays, finishing with 15 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He offers the strength to set the edge as a 4-3 defensive end and becomes quick for the position in that role. While he lacks what I consider elite explosiveness, he has great strength and can both set the edge and occasionally drive a blocker backward. The Falcons need this kind of a player, as the pass rush was a weakness all year.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
9Brandon ScherffNew York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 320POS: OT
Analysis: While he's a left tackle at Iowa, I think Scherff could start his NFL career at right tackle and, if he were to deal with growing pains there, could end up at guard. If you then question a draft slot this high, getting a guy who can be solid at right tackle right away and potentially dominant at guard isn't too shabby. The guy is simply devastating as a run-blocker, and the Giants could draft him knowing he'll play right away and provide dividends. (Think of what Dallas got in drafting Zack Martin last season and moving him inside.) With apologies to those of you who want to see 250 targets to Odell Beckham, Jr., Scherff could help balance this offense.
Video highlights
PLAYER CARD
10T J ClemmingsSt. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: PittsburghClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams made more strides on defense this year after adding Aaron Donald as a clear "best player available" pick in the 2014 NFL draft, and the defense benefited greatly. But while their No. 2 overall pick, Greg Robinson, goes into 2015 as the starter at left tackle after looking better there for the most part over the last five weeks this season, the O-line still graded out poorly for me overall, and the Rams need to bring in more talent. Clemmings is a player who has come a long way since converting from defense, but he has arguably as high a ceiling as any tackle in this class and won't need to start his career at left tackle. Quarterback questions persist, but there's no fix to be found here after the top two guys are off the board. More help up front is needed.
PLAYER CARD