Kinda gonna sound stupid but!

[johnnydizzle112]

Hello fellow gamblers and cappers,

I have been in the gambling world for quite some time, well around it sho uld I say! My old man raised me practically on a horse track, and hes been connected at the hip to a bookie for as long as I can remember! And sooo as Ive gotten older Ive learned a little here and there, but I would really like to start capping my on my own, up to now, Ive just either followed guys on here or bought my plays. Like my father does, he just bets on whatever a paper he buys for ten bucks tells him to play, and they are usually the heavy favorites. LOL

I am a poler player by nature, lol but I really really enjoy basketball and football. Was wondering if there was any insight that you guys could give me to where I would be able to kind of get started or teach myself, I am a wiz with numbers, and am a educated person, so any charts tables etc.... I could pretty easily follow. Just dont want to half ass it anymore, if Im going to do it I want to do it the right way and say that I did it, Id appreciate any help or even critisim I can gain through this very very long comment!!! lol sorry guys!

Thanks again!

John

 

[billbeater]

do alot of reading and watching, and dont try to get it all at once.
GL

 

[BigdaddyQH]

This takes years to perfect,and when I say perfect, I mean consistanly win. First, your goal should be 60%. Anyone who claims to have won more is probably selling you something other than the truth. So the first thing you do is develop a money management system. It will do you no good to go 3-0 on week 15 if you have nothing to put down on week 15.

Next, you have to develop your own system and style. This is where all the homework and experimenting comes in. Talk to 100 gamblers and they will give you 100 different approaches to the game. I think most of us who do this on a serious basis will tell you that record keeping is a must. It is for me. There are all kinds of gamblers. Some base their wagers on "power ratings" which arbitrarily rate each team based on statistics for the current season. Some use angles and trends. Those are your technical handicappers. Some try to out think the odds (something I do not recommend). Some try to fade the Public. Some, like myself, use a combination of ingredients. The key here is that it takes time, and by time, I mean more than 1 season, to perfect your system.

Finally, you just have to have it. You have to have that gut feeling when something tells you to lay off a wager even though it loooks like money in the bank. Remember, it is just as important not to lose, as it is to win. "I would rather be lucky than good" is an old gamblers saying that is true to this day. You have to realize that for every bad call and bad play that cost you a game, there will be one that gives you a game. I personally do not except excuses. If there was a bad call, I blame the losing team for putting themselves in a position where the bad call could cost them the game. Escuses have no part in gambling. My golden rule is: "You lost because you wagered on the losing team". That is it. Then I go on to the next game.

 

[aiverson]

This takes years to perfect,and when I say perfect, I mean consistanly win. First, your goal should be 60%. Anyone who claims to have won more is probably selling you something other than the truth.

I guess I agree with this statement only because you use the word "probably".

Hitting over 60% for an extended period of time (more than a season or two) is difficult but is possible.

I know this for a fact because I have done it and currently am doing it. 67% for 3 seasons now... (And the higher over 60%, the tougher it is to sustain.) You are right to "be skeptical" but if someone documents the fact that they can hit at such a high rate, you have no alternative but to accept it.

The people who believe it is impossible are the people who have never done it and have not even come close. They can't imagine someone being able to do it because they themselves are so unable. But that does not mean that there are not those certain individuals out there who "just have it" and by "it" I mean the skills as well as the resources to hit 60% w/ consistency.

If someone else claimed to have hit 67% for multiple seasons, I myself would give them the benefit of the doubt while at the same time asking for any validation/proof that they have before I believed 100%.

If they can give me some proof that establishes they are damn excellent, I will certainly believe them, because I know it is possible from my own experience. Of course, I would want to see that it was not just 60% w/ 10 plays a year, or something like that. If you are playing multiple games per week (3+) and hitting 65% or higher, for more than just 1 season, that is damn good, and damn rare. Certainly the list is quite short of NFL gamblers who have been able to achieve such a feat.

 

[johnnydizzle112]

Aiverson, Bigdaddy, and billeater, I appreciate all of your insights very very much. And one thing that I do posess is the want and the resources to do the homework to try to become a good handicapper. I also have the patientce, and I know that just like with any long term goal, success does not come over night.
I intend to try and do what I can, and once again thank you guys for everything that you have told me. Now it makes the fire inside burn even hotter cause its going to be a goal of mine to make myself a good handicapper. And who knows, maybe one day I can be in that range that you guys are in, in the above 60% category.
Here is to the upcomming football season and so on and so forth, I hope to hear from you guys again! Thanks alot guys and good luck!

 

[johnnydizzle112]

Also this is not my second post on here, I have been a member on here for about three years or so, but this year when I tried to log on it told me that my thing was deleted, so I had to create a new one, I dont know why it was deleted since I only had like 20 posts on there or whatnot, but oh well. Thanks again guys, its much appreciated!

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

"If you are playing multiple games per week (3+) and hitting 65% or higher, for more than just 1 season, that is damn good, and damn rare. Certainly the list is quite short of NFL gamblers who have been able to achieve such a feat."

Very short indeed....in fact it would be 0

If you play 3+ games a week and hit 55% for over 1 season you will be the greatest ever...handicappings Jordan. You can go on runs but sustain that in any sport for that long is not doable.
Its just like poker, you get your money in the middle with an edge as often as you can and the odds + volume - variance = profit. Over any extended period that variance is always going to keep tugging toward 50% where with vig you will show a loss. If you can sustain that % though just 4 points higher at 54% you will always make money. Thats the line your dealing with 4%.
Show me a bettor who doesnt waste that 4% every year on parlays or casinos , bad money management,etc and ill show you a winning player.

AI sounds like he does about the same thing i do, very few plays but for a large % of the bankroll. This is ofcourse the most profitable but losses have a much larger effect and in fact going busto in a week is always a possibility. I had a streak once of like 28-3....made a ton. Ive had several 0-10's that put me out for months....so there is a tradeoff to made between the 2 styles.....

 

[Randizzle14]

"If you are playing multiple games per week (3+) and hitting 65% or higher, for more than just 1 season, that is damn good, and damn rare. Certainly the list is quite short of NFL gamblers who have been able to achieve such a feat."

Very short indeed....in fact it would be 0

If you play 3+ games a week and hit 55% for over 1 season you will be the greatest ever...handicappings Jordan. You can go on runs but sustain that in any sport for that long is not doable.
.

That statement is incorrect. Averaged 7+ games per week last year and finished season at 78%. 100+Plays. Just pointing out that it is doable. Just rare. :toast:

 

[aiverson]

"If you are playing multiple games per week (3+) and hitting 65% or higher, for more than just 1 season, that is damn good, and damn rare. Certainly the list is quite short of NFL gamblers who have been able to achieve such a feat."

Very short indeed....in fact it would be 0

If you play 3+ games a week and hit 55% for over 1 season you will be the greatest ever...handicappings Jordan. You can go on runs but sustain that in any sport for that long is not doable.

I agree w/ Randizzle. Now you are right, I do target certain games as key plays and only averaged 3.5 plays/wk last year, and I hit 67% on those. But, including those plays and my totals, I had a total of 123 plays last year and hit went 80-40-3. Over a 17 week reg season, that is an avg of 7+ plays per week, and a mark of over 65%. That is a lot of plays for a lot of weeks in a row and over 65% won. But an even more long standing mark:

I have a computer program I designed starting 7 years ago that has been calculating ATS, Overs and Unders, and since I perfected it in 2005, it's cumulative 3 year mark is: 239-116 (67%).

So the number of people who can achieve this is not zero. It is likely small, but there are individuals in select sports who can do it. I did it last year in the NFL. I saw Randizzle did it in College FB. Some people are good enough to get it done for a full season. Just make sure you "validate" someone who tells you they did it. If they can show you plays over a period of time where they can back up their claims, what can you say? They are that good I guess...

I have had my share of "hot streaks" - I went 15-1 (94%) in the Wagerline NFL Playoff competition heading into the Super Bowl, finished 16-2 and won first place. And yes, long term there are peaks/valleys in any season and anyone who says otherwise is lying. But I hit over 65% for the entire season last year, and my computer program has hit over 65% now for 3 years in a row. It takes a TON of work, devoted time and effort, but as you yourself know, the rewards are worth it all.

 

[johnnydizzle112]

This is all great news, and once again thank you everyone for commenting on it. So I guess what I need to do now is get stats from previous years, and so on and put them into an excell program?? What are some of the variables that other people use in there spreadsheet? Like should I just use a power rating system or an overall system?
I like it that some people dont think it can be done, and others say it can, but let me ask this, if its not possible to be done? then why would people continue to do it?? Just for the thrill to fail?? IDK, personally, but I can tell you one thing, I know that nothing happens over night, and it will take a lot of work and tweaks to master, but I dont like failing, so Im going to keep at it til I can hopefully be up there in the higher sixty percentile. Thank you every one again! And anymore information that I can obtaiin through this frame will always be greatly appreciated.

Thanks again guys!

John

 

[bitb]

This is all great news, and once again thank you everyone for commenting on it. So I guess what I need to do now is get stats from previous years, and so on and put them into an excell program?? What are some of the variables that other people use in there spreadsheet? Like should I just use a power rating system or an overall system?
I like it that some people dont think it can be done, and others say it can, but let me ask this, if its not possible to be done? then why would people continue to do it?? Just for the thrill to fail?? IDK, personally, but I can tell you one thing, I know that nothing happens over night, and it will take a lot of work and tweaks to master, but I dont like failing, so Im going to keep at it til I can hopefully be up there in the higher sixty percentile. Thank you every one again! And anymore information that I can obtaiin through this frame will always be greatly appreciated.

Thanks again guys!

John

john,

if you spend more than 1 hr on a FULL card of NCAAFB games on a given Saturday you are WASTING YOUR TIME! Follow along for the next month in bases, get a solid bankroll built, and football will be a breeze.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

john,

if you spend more than 1 hr on a FULL card of NCAAFB games on a given Saturday you are WASTING YOUR TIME! Follow along for the next month in bases, get a solid bankroll built, and football will be a breeze.

Thank the good lawd you've come along to show us the way. You've got inside information, don't you?

 

[johnnydizzle112]

lol, i will follow, just to see, but if you do have inside info you know you have to share right??? LOL Just kidding bud!

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Hello fellow gamblers and cappers,

I have been in the gambling world for quite some time, well around it sho uld I say! My old man raised me practically on a horse track, and hes been connected at the hip to a bookie for as long as I can remember! And sooo as Ive gotten older Ive learned a little here and there, but I would really like to start capping my on my own, up to now, Ive just either followed guys on here or bought my plays. Like my father does, he just bets on whatever a paper he buys for ten bucks tells him to play, and they are usually the heavy favorites. LOL

I am a poler player by nature, lol but I really really enjoy basketball and football. Was wondering if there was any insight that you guys could give me to where I would be able to kind of get started or teach myself, I am a wiz with numbers, and am a educated person, so any charts tables etc.... I could pretty easily follow. Just dont want to half ass it anymore, if Im going to do it I want to do it the right way and say that I did it, Id appreciate any help or even critisim I can gain through this very very long comment!!! lol sorry guys!

Thanks again!

John

Dude this place is like the Taj Mahal of stupid.. you cant throw a rock without hitting stupid

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

I have a down payment of a porsche on Dallas in week one .. that how stupid i get

 

[johnnydizzle112]

Ive been reading that alot of people are on that same week one bet with you smartmoney, so Dallas is either going to make alot of friends or alot of pissed off people come week one!! Best of luck!

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Its more of a bet agenst TB. New Coach , New QB who has never thrown a NFL pass , New System , and with the pressure on old wade this year after misseing the playoffs and they are widely considered third-best in its division fuck who better to send a message to old man jones then give him a blowout win in week 1 . Dallas has a good core group , this can not be said of TB . If dallas can shut down the Run and force TB to pass the is game wil be a blow out .. shit i wish we still had pac man

 

[HinesWard86]

"If you are playing multiple games per week (3+) and hitting 65% or higher, for more than just 1 season, that is damn good, and damn rare. Certainly the list is quite short of NFL gamblers who have been able to achieve such a feat."

Very short indeed....in fact it would be 0

If you play 3+ games a week and hit 55% for over 1 season you will be the greatest ever...handicappings Jordan. You can go on runs but sustain that in any sport for that long is not doable.
Its just like poker, you get your money in the middle with an edge as often as you can and the odds + volume - variance = profit. Over any extended period that variance is always going to keep tugging toward 50% where with vig you will show a loss. If you can sustain that % though just 4 points higher at 54% you will always make money. Thats the line your dealing with 4%.
Show me a bettor who doesnt waste that 4% every year on parlays or casinos , bad money management,etc and ill show you a winning player.

AI sounds like he does about the same thing i do, very few plays but for a large % of the bankroll. This is ofcourse the most profitable but losses have a much larger effect and in fact going busto in a week is always a possibility. I had a streak once of like 28-3....made a ton. Ive had several 0-10's that put me out for months....so there is a tradeoff to made between the 2 styles.....

The only good post in this thread. If you take anything out of this thread, this is it.

No one hits 60%+ on straight bets over a significant sample set (1000 games or more) in a heavily bet sport. Just doesn't happen. Now, it is possible on props or less bet sports, such as AFL, CFL, WNBA, etc. but these sports have significantly lower limits.

There will be a lot of rubbish in the sports threads. Lots of hype, lots of smoke, but at the end of the day you will find that 99% of it is complete poppycock. Don't let this pessimistic outlook demur you though. Find a niche and stick to it, you will find that is your best bet.

BOL to you.