Kimbo Slice-Ken Shamrock betting analysis
Reed Kuhn, ESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
We often hear that a fight has been "years in the making," as we did at UFC 188 when Gilbert Melendez faced Eddie Alvarez and Cain Velasquez squared off against Fabricio Werdum. This time, we really mean it.
Ken Shamrock and Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson will finally face off seven years after their initial booking on a 2008 Elite XC fight card that was one of the first MMA events to air on network prime time. Shamrock was allegedly cut while training before the event and was a last-minute scratch, resulting in Seth Petruzelli's replacement booking and shocking KO win over Kimbo that was a death knell for the promotion. Yet despite the years taking their respective tolls on both fighters, Shamrock and Kimbo will face off this week at Bellator 138. And you can bet that it's going to draw some eyeballs.
Breaking down the odds
Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas of MMAOddsbreaker.com released the opening odds that have set the initial market price for the matchup. Kimbo opened a minus-405 favorite, with the comeback on underdog Shamrock at plus-285. The market has reacted immediately in favor of the older MMA veteran, pushing Shamrock down to just a plus-180 underdog, with Kimbo at minus-260. So while Kimbo is still expected to win, his chances are now lower than when the two were first scheduled to face off in 2008, when Kimbo was more than a 4-1 favorite.
The totals on this matchup clearly favor an early finish, which would not be surprising given their respective fight histories. The under 1.5 rounds total opened at a whopping minus-505, with the over at plus-335. And despite the advanced age and stylistic mismatches at work in this pairing, the market has reined in those prices with the current under at minus-320 and the over at plus-240. It appears that the market still expects an early Kimbo KO, but the betting action has fallen on the side of Shamrock wrestling for a few rounds.
A matchup like this one with so many volatile factors and unknowns makes for dangerous projections. The fighters' combined age of 92.7 years is higher than any fight that has ever taken place in the UFC (yes, even Randy Couture versusMark Coleman). The spectacle of this fight is a return to the circus years of MMA, yet Bellator should generate high ratings by bringing closure to one of the most anticipated fights that never took place.
That contrasts sharply with the career of Kimbo, who was a bare-knuckle boxer made famous by YouTube videos of his illegal backyard fights. While his MMA career was short-lived and ended after a TKO loss to Matt Mitrione at a 2010 UFC event, Kimbo has remained active as a boxer. From 2011 to 2013 he went 7-0 with six KO victories in small boxing promotions, but notably faced underwhelming opponents with a combined record of just 16-18. Nevertheless, it's always been clear that Kimbo prefers to stand and trade leather (or bare knuckles) rather than wrestle. And to his credit, during his short time in the UFC Kimbo actually demonstrated a highly accurate jab.
So we're presented with an extreme striker-versus-grappler matchup, and the first moments of the fight should be quite revealing. Shamrock will undoubtedly keep his distance and then look to shoot, while Kimbo will be awaiting the takedown attempts and trying to defend while landing some punches. Kimbo probably needs to land only a single clean punch to put Shamrock on the mat, but if Shamrock actually gets the fight to the ground, he is fully capable of pulling off a variety of submissions that Kimbo would be helpless to defend against.
While action on the rounds total for the fight initially came in on the over, the under of 1.5 rounds is probably the safest bet.
Reed Kuhn, ESPN Contributor
ESPN INSIDER
We often hear that a fight has been "years in the making," as we did at UFC 188 when Gilbert Melendez faced Eddie Alvarez and Cain Velasquez squared off against Fabricio Werdum. This time, we really mean it.
Ken Shamrock and Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson will finally face off seven years after their initial booking on a 2008 Elite XC fight card that was one of the first MMA events to air on network prime time. Shamrock was allegedly cut while training before the event and was a last-minute scratch, resulting in Seth Petruzelli's replacement booking and shocking KO win over Kimbo that was a death knell for the promotion. Yet despite the years taking their respective tolls on both fighters, Shamrock and Kimbo will face off this week at Bellator 138. And you can bet that it's going to draw some eyeballs.
Breaking down the odds
Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas of MMAOddsbreaker.com released the opening odds that have set the initial market price for the matchup. Kimbo opened a minus-405 favorite, with the comeback on underdog Shamrock at plus-285. The market has reacted immediately in favor of the older MMA veteran, pushing Shamrock down to just a plus-180 underdog, with Kimbo at minus-260. So while Kimbo is still expected to win, his chances are now lower than when the two were first scheduled to face off in 2008, when Kimbo was more than a 4-1 favorite.
The totals on this matchup clearly favor an early finish, which would not be surprising given their respective fight histories. The under 1.5 rounds total opened at a whopping minus-505, with the over at plus-335. And despite the advanced age and stylistic mismatches at work in this pairing, the market has reined in those prices with the current under at minus-320 and the over at plus-240. It appears that the market still expects an early Kimbo KO, but the betting action has fallen on the side of Shamrock wrestling for a few rounds.
A matchup like this one with so many volatile factors and unknowns makes for dangerous projections. The fighters' combined age of 92.7 years is higher than any fight that has ever taken place in the UFC (yes, even Randy Couture versusMark Coleman). The spectacle of this fight is a return to the circus years of MMA, yet Bellator should generate high ratings by bringing closure to one of the most anticipated fights that never took place.
That contrasts sharply with the career of Kimbo, who was a bare-knuckle boxer made famous by YouTube videos of his illegal backyard fights. While his MMA career was short-lived and ended after a TKO loss to Matt Mitrione at a 2010 UFC event, Kimbo has remained active as a boxer. From 2011 to 2013 he went 7-0 with six KO victories in small boxing promotions, but notably faced underwhelming opponents with a combined record of just 16-18. Nevertheless, it's always been clear that Kimbo prefers to stand and trade leather (or bare knuckles) rather than wrestle. And to his credit, during his short time in the UFC Kimbo actually demonstrated a highly accurate jab.
So we're presented with an extreme striker-versus-grappler matchup, and the first moments of the fight should be quite revealing. Shamrock will undoubtedly keep his distance and then look to shoot, while Kimbo will be awaiting the takedown attempts and trying to defend while landing some punches. Kimbo probably needs to land only a single clean punch to put Shamrock on the mat, but if Shamrock actually gets the fight to the ground, he is fully capable of pulling off a variety of submissions that Kimbo would be helpless to defend against.
While action on the rounds total for the fight initially came in on the over, the under of 1.5 rounds is probably the safest bet.
