2-0. Great night!
I was on the road, so I had to stop at the library and use the internet to get your picks. It looks like it was worth the time!
If you post a pick, and know for sure that you will not be posting the rest of the day, can you state that. It would save a lot of time for people following your picks!
Do you use other statistics besides the refs for games? If so, what are they?
:toast:
IS
I was on the road, so I had to stop at the library and use the internet to get your picks. It looks like it was worth the time!
If you post a pick, and know for sure that you will not be posting the rest of the day, can you state that. It would save a lot of time for people following your picks!
Do you use other statistics besides the refs for games? If so, what are they?
:toast:
IS
Thanks IS. Glad to see someone is benefitting from my work here.
I had every intention of posting for all the games last night, but around 8:30 I got a call from a old high school friend and we chatted for like 1 1/2 hours. I checked out the 10:30 games and saw nothing I liked, then I went back to check out the games I missed. Turns out I would've played San Ant -10 and Utah +8. San Ant won by 33 but Utah lost by 10 in O.T., so I would've gone 1-1. It would've been painful to lose on an 8 point dog in O.T., so it was a case of good furtune that I (we?) missed those games, but at the same time it tells me that my capping was good.
You might be surprised to know that I DON'T use any other factors in capping games. I used to, but I discovered I was missing more winners than losers by withholding plays when the other capping info contradicted the ref data. I am convinced that referees have a bigger impact on basketball capping than any other sport for several reasons:
1. Virtually every possession there is a call/no call decision to be made. With over a hundred possessions per game, if a certain ref is more inclined to call charging rather than blocking fouls or if he is more inclined to swallow his whistle you can see how huge his impact can be, especially on totals. Think about it - sports like hockey and foots average around 10-15 penalties per game, whereas your typical game of roundball will see 50 fouls or more.
2. Since there are 3 refs for each game, and realizing that each of them have equal influence, if you can find three with similar tendancies, then their already large impact is multiplied. Other sports like baseball have multiple umps too, but the influence of the home plate ump is vastly more important than any of the others. Therefore there is no multiplying effect in baseball.
3. The umps in baseball are also known far in advance, sometimes days in advance. This makes it much easier for cappers to factor their influence into the line. Watch what happens to the over/under in a baseball game when Doug Eddings is announced as home plate ump. Hoops, on the other hand, doesn't announce ref matchups until 5 minutes before G.T. So even though it is aggravating to wait right up to the last minute to get the info, it is probably just as well, because the announcement doesn't move the line.
This is all confirmed in my data on the refs. Some refs have ATS results that are consistent every year. For example, Joe Crawford and Kevin Fehr have made money for "under" bettors every year for the last 8 years.
A word of warning here, though. My results have been impressive so far, but PLEASE don't wager beyond your means. I stand behind my capping, but I am certainly not immune to a bad streak. It would be one thing for me to lose my OWN money, but knowing that my recommendations would be causing OTHERS to lose money would be extremely disconcerting, especially if they were plunking down huge wads of cash on each play.
I had every intention of posting for all the games last night, but around 8:30 I got a call from a old high school friend and we chatted for like 1 1/2 hours. I checked out the 10:30 games and saw nothing I liked, then I went back to check out the games I missed. Turns out I would've played San Ant -10 and Utah +8. San Ant won by 33 but Utah lost by 10 in O.T., so I would've gone 1-1. It would've been painful to lose on an 8 point dog in O.T., so it was a case of good furtune that I (we?) missed those games, but at the same time it tells me that my capping was good.
You might be surprised to know that I DON'T use any other factors in capping games. I used to, but I discovered I was missing more winners than losers by withholding plays when the other capping info contradicted the ref data. I am convinced that referees have a bigger impact on basketball capping than any other sport for several reasons:
1. Virtually every possession there is a call/no call decision to be made. With over a hundred possessions per game, if a certain ref is more inclined to call charging rather than blocking fouls or if he is more inclined to swallow his whistle you can see how huge his impact can be, especially on totals. Think about it - sports like hockey and foots average around 10-15 penalties per game, whereas your typical game of roundball will see 50 fouls or more.
2. Since there are 3 refs for each game, and realizing that each of them have equal influence, if you can find three with similar tendancies, then their already large impact is multiplied. Other sports like baseball have multiple umps too, but the influence of the home plate ump is vastly more important than any of the others. Therefore there is no multiplying effect in baseball.
3. The umps in baseball are also known far in advance, sometimes days in advance. This makes it much easier for cappers to factor their influence into the line. Watch what happens to the over/under in a baseball game when Doug Eddings is announced as home plate ump. Hoops, on the other hand, doesn't announce ref matchups until 5 minutes before G.T. So even though it is aggravating to wait right up to the last minute to get the info, it is probably just as well, because the announcement doesn't move the line.
This is all confirmed in my data on the refs. Some refs have ATS results that are consistent every year. For example, Joe Crawford and Kevin Fehr have made money for "under" bettors every year for the last 8 years.
A word of warning here, though. My results have been impressive so far, but PLEASE don't wager beyond your means. I stand behind my capping, but I am certainly not immune to a bad streak. It would be one thing for me to lose my OWN money, but knowing that my recommendations would be causing OTHERS to lose money would be extremely disconcerting, especially if they were plunking down huge wads of cash on each play.
As far as getting my picks, I believe there is a setting where you can get an email alert whenever a certain poster makes a post. I'm not sure how to set it up. If your interested, you can email one of the mods here and they can tell you. Of course, if you do that, you'll get an email of all my posts - not just the ones for NBA picks. You'll no doubt tire of getting bombarded with my inane ramblings on other topics. :notlisten
Thanks PRJR. I agree - totals are influenced more than sides by the refs. I normally wager more on totals due to this. However, for recordkeeping purposes here, I keep all my plays at 1 unit each.
I use these sites for ref announcements. I'm looking for others that announce ref matchups earlier, but haven't found any yet.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/scores.htm
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nba/scores/live/scores.htm
I use these sites for ref announcements. I'm looking for others that announce ref matchups earlier, but haven't found any yet.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/scores.htm
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nba/scores/live/scores.htm
Thanks MDKID...I will see if I can find any other sites also.....In the NBA do refs stay in crews like MLB and for how long? I think any backdoor angle a gambler can find over the general public gives him a great advantage..Myself I keep NBA quarters records others like tate and MikeChad use progression systems..yourself you use refs..great idea...I will let you know if I find any other sites with ref info....Have a good one..
BTW, I had one of the best vacations of my life in Oceanside, MD when I was around 15....Had a great time on boardwalk and beach also went to Campden Yards...Nice park...
BTW, I had one of the best vacations of my life in Oceanside, MD when I was around 15....Had a great time on boardwalk and beach also went to Campden Yards...Nice park...
