Analysis...
In selecting games to play, I give a very large amount of consideration to who is umping behind the plate. The starting pitchers obviously have a LOT to do with the line, but I think that everyone and their brother analyzes that, so for the most part their stats are already reflected in the line. Not so with the home plate ump. I think many handicappers tend to ignore the home plate ump, and even those that try to handicap the umps tend to only use recent games or the present season at the most. I have compiled a database with every umpire's stats for the last 8 years. I then weight the data, giving more emphasis on more recent seasons due to the fact that umpires can change over time. Finally, I curve the data giving more emphasis to umpires that have umped a larger number of games (true trends often don't reveal themselves until after a sufficient number of games).
So with that, here is my analysis of the above games...
Det/Cleve o9 -113 (pinny) 2 units - both starting pitchers have struggled a little more lately, especially Knotts who has surrendered 4 or more earned runs in 5 out of his last 6 starts. In addition, Cleveland has a tired bullpen after they were forced to pitch 8 1/3 innings last night after Cliff Lee was bombed for 6 runs in the first. Both these teams have scored plenty of runs this year, combining to average nearly 11 per game. The ballpark factor, which I described in earlier posts, is a mildly positive +0.2 runs (0.2 more runs will be scored on average between these 2 teams in today's ballpark than at the opponents ballpark). The main reason for the pick though, is home plate ump Randy Marsh. Marsh has consistently been an over ump his entire time in the majors with a overall record of 129-101.
Minny over Chic +105 (oly) 2 units - Anytime I can have Johan Santana at better than even, I'm taking him. Take a look at what Santana has done in his last nine outings: 70 innings, 29 hits, 11 ER's (1.41 ERA), 94 K's, 15 BB's. In a word - those stats are SICK. Garcia is no slouch either, but Santana is the best pitcher in either league right now, and no one even knows it. This may indeed be decided by the bullpens. Minny has the advantage there with the superior pen, and the fact that Santana has averaged 8 innings to Garcia's 7. The clincher is Ed Montague, the homeplate ump. Montague is the original anti-homer. Year in and year out playing the road team when Monty is behind the plate has been a road to riches. I discovered him 6 years ago and he has made me a mint since.
Seat/Oak u9.5 -112 (IIS) 4 units - This play is based almost entirely on the home plate ump. Doug Eddings is by FAR the best under ump in the game today. It isn't even close. Eddings has averaged 2.70 strikeouts/walk in the last 8 seasons. Not only that, but he has averaged nearly 2.90 strikeouts/walk since the league asked the umps to speed up games 4 years ago by enlarging the strikezone!! And this year his average is an amazing 3.24. Incidentally, the league average is 1.93. 2nd place is light years away (Bill Miller at 2.37). This all has resulted in a 102-69 record for unders in Eddings career.
Tex/Ana o10 +103 (IIS) 2 units - This one, too, is nearly a pure umpire pick. Reilly is my 4th rated "over" ump. Overs have occurred 54% of the time with Reilly behind the plate the last 8 years and his strikeout to walk ratio is one of the lowest of all umps, especially the last 2 seasons (1.58).
NYM/Mont o7 +101 (pinny) 3 units - I really thought this was a bad line when I first saw it. Between the two teams, 11 relievers worked acombined 11 2/3 innings in last nights debacle. And neither bullpen is that good to begin with. With that in mind, each team is gonna be looking to get maximum innings out of their starters. Problem is neither starter is accustomed to giving big innings. Glavine has pitched more than 7 innings only once in his last 10 outings and Day has done it only twice. Look for each manager to stay with his starter even if he starts getting hit. Note also that each starter, after getting off to a great start this season has slumped badly in recent games. Also note that the ballpark factor for this game is an extremely positive +1.20. Most cappers don't realize Olympic stadium has been a very good hitters park, mostly due to the turf. The BIG reason for this pick though, is once again the home plate ump. Don't be fooled by his record in his 5 games this season, Derryl Cousins is a bigtime OVER umpire. I have him rated as the 2nd best over ump in all of baseball. With 54.1% overs and a lifetime 1.52 strikeout/walk ratio, its hard to pass up a chance at an over with Derryl's puny strikezone. Hopefully some of you jumped on this line back when I first posted it. It has gone up to u9 -115 at several places. This provides an OUTSTANDING chance at a middle for those that like to play them.
Philly/Flor o8 +100 (gameday,Vwager) 3 units - once again I'm playing this game almost solely based on the home plate ump. Gary Cederstrom is my number ONE rated over ump in all of baseball. With 58.3% overs in his 8 years behind the plate Cederstrom is next to no one in that category. His lifetime 1.71 K/BB ratio is very low, but it is even lower the last 2 seasons at 1.51. With those numbers I don't need anymore reasons to play this one. You had to get in early on this one, too, however. The line has already moved up to u8 1/2 +105 at pinny and other places. This too provides a good chance at a risk free middle if you had gotten in at the early line.
Anyway, good luck to all.
