Kid's Plays for Thurs (23-17, +2.49 units)

[TheMDKid]

Season summary...

1 unit plays .... 3-0, +2.83 units
2 unit .......... 9-6, +3.26
3 unit .......... 7-9, -9.15
4 unit .......... 4-1, +10.55
5 unit .......... 0-1, -5.00

sides ......... 9-10, -11.84
over/unders ... 14-7, +14.33

grand total 23-17, +2.49 units

Obviously totals have been my strength. Knowing each ump's strikezone and the ballpark factors helps tremendously with these. I am disappointed with my sides, however. Hopefully, I can continue to bounce back from my horrible start this year.

Anyway, on to today's picks...

Houston individual team total o4.5 -105 (oly) (2 units)
Balt +145 over Anaheim (gameday) (2 units)

 

[TheMDKid]

Discussion of picks ...

Houston individual team total o4.5 -105 (oly) (2 units) - With huge "over" ump Randy Marsh behind the plate, I originally was gonna play the regular over on this one. However, Andy Pettitte has dominated the Mets over the years, and with all the Met injuries, I decided to just play the Astro's over. Games with Marsh behind the plate have gone over to the tune of 133-102 over the past 8 seasons. Randy's tiny strikezone (1.65 career K/BB ratio) will give the Mets Zambrano fits. Zambrano is the major league leader in walks and wild pitches, and he is making his first home start for his new team. Met fans, never one's to be very patient, are even less so now as the once promising season spirals out of control. To make matters worse Zambrano was acquired for the Mets number 1 pitching prospect in a very controversial trade at the deadline. The pressure on Zambrano is enormous. In addition the Met defense is the worst in the majors, so Zambrano will get no help there either. This could get ugly.



Balt +145 over Anaheim (gameday) (2 units) - Discussion later

 

[MadCapper]

Bagwell, Kent, Biggio, Floyd, Kaz, Reyes, Piazza, Floyd all NOT playing!

Palmeiro, Bruntlet, Viscaino, Lamb, G. Williams, McEwing, D. Garcia all playing!

 

[TheMDKid]

I know MadC, but experience has shown that very often the line overcompensates when star players sit. The subs very often have big days in these games. We'll see. Thanks for the input though.

 

[TheMDKid]

Balt +145 over Anaheim (gameday) (2 units) - Lopez has actually been far better than Colon this season, and the O's have tattooed righthanders all year (5.74 runs/gm), including the one time they faced Colon earlier this year (5 ER's, 5 inn). The Angels have a very nice pitching staff with a lights out bullpen, but they are almost exclusively a righthanded pitching team. This allows the O's to actually match up very well with the Angels because of their prowess vs righties. Cementing this pick is Ron Kulpa behind the plate, who I have ranked as the 3rd best ump in baseball for playing road teams. Home teams have a dismal 82-96 record in Kulpa's 6 years umping, and handicappers have made money every year since his first by just playing the road team.

 

[MadCapper]

Raffy and Javy not in lineup.

 

[TheMDKid]

Damn, MadC, your KILLIN me!

 

[MadCapper]

MD,

I like the Orioles too and think they win this one anyway. I would never put money on Colon. Hes hurt me way too many times.

 

[TheMDKid]

adding one more...

Minny -167 over Seat (pinny) (risk 2 units) - Johan Santana beat the A's last week, going 6 1/3, allowing 7 hits, 3 ER's, 10K's, and walking only 1. The significance of this is that it was the WORST OUTING FOR SANTANA IN HIS LAST 13 STARTS!!! This guy has been the best pitcher in baseball the last 2 months and nobody even knows it. Check out his stats for the last 2 months: 9-2, 90 1/3 inn, 40 hits, 17 ER's (1.69 ERA), 122 K's, 19 BB's. This doesn't even include a 1-0 victory over the Mariners and Franklin in May. These numbers are unreal. Franklin, on the contrary, has gone 11 starts since his last win. Now I realize the Twins have been reeling lately, but that's what stoppers are for. And if Santana isn't a stopper, I don't know who is. Having Fieldin Culbreth behind the plate is extra comfort, also. Culbreth has made $100/game players $2385 the last 8 seasons by playing road teams when he is umping. In summary, taking the best pitcher in baseball on a first place team while facing a last place team and having a friendly ump and only laying -167 is a great play.

 

[TheMDKid]

Ok MadC, who's sittin for the Twinkies in this one????

 

[MadCapper]

Hunter and Guzman out.

 

[TheMDKid]

Man. Anyone sittin for the Mariners? Where do you find the lineups listed. I'm lookin for a site that lists starting lineups with stats AND lists subs with stats. Can't seem to find one.

 

[MadCapper]

cbssportsline.com preview has lineups up 50 minutes before games. No one of importance sitting for Sea.

 

[TheMDKid]

Yeah, I know about cbssportsline.com, but they don't list the subs until after the game starts.

 

[TheMDKid]

One more for the day...

Atl/Milw o7-107 (IIS) (risk 2 units) - Ben Sheets faces the team he whiffed 18 times in his last start. Trust me, he won't come close this time. Ben had the fortune of having Doug Eddings behind the plate in that one. Doug has the majors biggest strikezone by far, averaging 3.28 K/BB this year. Today, Ben will have the MISFORTUNE of having Gary Cederstrom behind the plate. Gary has the majors SMALLEST strikezone this year, averaging 1.43 K/BB. That's a whole world of difference. Sheets has also signs of wear and tear lately, allowing 33 hits and 13 ER's in his last 25 innings. In addition, both these teams are very poor defensively, ranking 13th and 14th in the league in errors, with both averaging over 0.5 unearned runs/game. With the ballpark factor neutral and with the line dropping from o7.5 earlier today, its time to take a shot on this one.

 

[TheMDKid]

Wrapping up for the day ...

Houston individual team total o4.5 -105 (oly) (2 units) LOST - My pick went in before knowing Hous was fielding a AAA lineup, although Zambrano surprised me with his poise.

Balt +145 over Anaheim (gameday) (2 units) WON - This one wasn't close as the O's pummeled the Angel staff for 14 hits.

Minny -167 over Seat (pinny) (risk 2 units) WON - Santana 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's ... just another ho hum performance by MLB's best pitcher.

Atl/Milw o7-107 (IIS) (risk 2 units) LOST - 4 homers in the game and only 6 runs. I'd make the same play again today if I had the chance.



for the day ...... +0.10 units
for the season ... +2.59 units