Kid's Plays for Saturday

[TheMDKid]

getting this one early 'cause I'm betting the line goes down...

Hous/Mont u9 -118 (pinny) (risk 5 units) - Carlos Hernandez returns after missing nearly 2 seasons after tearing his rotator cuff. Hernandez was a promising rookie lefthander with the 'Stros in 2002. He spent most of this season rehabbing in AAA and compiled some nice numbers to go with a 9-4 record. He faces Tony Armas, who had a hiccup in his last outing, but in his previous 5 starts he allowed a total of 4 ER's. The 2 bullpens combine for a 4.20 ERA. The teams average a combined 8.00 runs/game vs the type (righty/lefty) of pitcher they face today. The ballpark factor is -0.75 runs/game and the 2 teams are excellent defensively, especially the Expos who have the best Double Play to Error ratio in the league (124/54). To top things off, Doug Eddings is behind the plate. Anyone who has followed my picks this year knows about Doug Eddings. His K/BB ratio (3.28) is nearly 1 full strikeout more than the ump in 2nd place. In a word, this guy's strikezone is monstrous. This line is so out of whack, I am sure that it will come down tomorrow. My guess is that Vegas is going by the Expos recent offensive success, but even in recent games Montreal has struggled vs southpaws (2.95 runs/gm in their last 10). This all adds up to only my 2nd 5 unit play of the year.

 

[TheMDKid]

adding...

LA/Chic u8 +100 (IIS) (risk 2 units)

discussion to follow

 

[TheMDKid]

discussion ...

LA/Chic u8 +103 (IIS) (risk 3 units) - this matchup between Ishii and Wood normally would receive a line of u7 -110. The line has gone up because Wood and Ishii have struggled in the past couple of outings. It is normal for pitchers, even elite ones, to have poor stretches. In my opinion, the line overcompensates for this. Boosting my argument for taking the under is both bullpens - both among the leagues elite. In addition, the defenses are also among the elite, with the teams ranking 1st and 3rd in fewest errors. The Cubs also struggle vs. lefthanders, averaging more than a run less/game vs the southpaws. With Phil Cuzzi and his huge strikezone behind the plate (2.36 K/BB ratio for his career) and the wind blowing in at Wrigley, this is a great chance to steal one from the man. As a matter of fact, I'm adding one more unit to my recommendation and noting that the line has gotten better - make it risk 3 units.

 

[TheMDKid]

Another one ...

Balt -128 (pinny) over Tor (risk 2 units) - I bet no one knew that the O's lead the majors in hitting right now. That's right - the O's!! This team has it going on right now. The Orioles have won 10 of 11 and suddenly find themselves in the wildcard race after what seemed like a lost season only 2 weeks ago. The big reason for the turnaround, though, has been the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. Two months ago the Oriole bullpen was the worst in the league. Now they are one of the leagues best. Today they have a big advantage over the Jays due to the starting pitchers. Not only is Bortkowski superior to Towers in this matchup of righthanders, but the Orioles LOVE hitting against righties (1.6 more runs vs righties than lefthanders), whereas the Jays HATE them (1.4 runs less). Towers is an ex-Oriole, but don't worry. Some pitchers turn it up a notch against old teammates, but Towers 3 appearances vs the O's have been nothing special (1-2, 16 IP, 25 H, 12 R). The clincher here, as always in my plays, is the home plate ump, Terry Craft. Craft is among the top 5 "anti-homer" umps according to my ratings of umps for the last 8 seasons. $100/game players would have made $2825 by playing road teams in all of Crafts appearances behind the plate in this time span. I'm only upset that I didn't see this play last night when the line was -104. It surely woulda been at least a 3 unit, if not a 4 unit play for me.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper+]

Nice write-ups. I agree with all three (of course its not hard to agree with the la under in the 8 inning lol)

good luck

 

[TheMDKid]

Thanks, TN.

Here's one more...
Ariz +308 (pinny) over NYM (risk 2 units) - The Mets at -338 against ANYONE is just plain silly. The D-backs are sliding bigtime but the 55-59 Mets are just not a good enough team to be laying all this, even with Al Leiter going. True, Leiter does lead the majors in ERA, but he rarely even goes past 6 innings anymore - he's averaged only 5.7 innings/start. That leaves it up to the Mets inconsistent pen to nail this one down. Gonzalez has been the loser in each of his five starts for Arizona, but his last outing was encouraging - going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs vs the Bravo's. I'm not willing lay that much on the Mets relief corp and I think this is a very good value play on the D-backs.

 

[TheMDKid]

one last one...

Hous/Mont o8.5 +110 (pinny) (risk 2 units) - As I said when I posted this game last night, the line is bound to come down. This is worth taking for a very good chance at a middle with very little risk.