Ana/TB o8.5 -120 (gameday) (3 units) - Two things are behind this pick ... an overrated pitcher and a very stingy umpire. Bartolo Colon has had an awful season, but he apparently is still getting the respect of linesmakers. His 5.59 ERA is unsightly, and combined with Tampa's Hendrickson, the two pitchers give up 10 earned runs per game. The 2 teams combine to score 9.5 runs/game vs the type of pitcher (right/left) they face today, and defensively they combine to give up 0.70 unearned runs/game. The pens combine to allow only 7.1 runs/game, but the Ray's Colome and the Angel's Gregg won't be available tonight after each threw over 30 pitches last night. It's hard to figure why the line was only 8.5 -120. Indeed it has already risen to 8.5 -129 at pinny. This line looks even better considering Derryl Cousins will be calling balls and strikes. Don't be fooled by Derryl's 2-7 over/under record this year. He still ranks as my #1 OVER umpire in the entire league. No other umpire has had a smaller strikezone than Cousins over the past 8 years, as evidenced by his 1.51 lifetime K/BB ratio.
Chic/Milw u6.5 +109 (pinny) (2 units) - This one is purely an umpire play. As a rule I play the under everytime that John Hirschbeck is behind the plate, unless I percieve the line to be way out of whack. Hirschbeck is legendary in the gambling community for providing an almost automatic under every time he umped. Those days are pretty much gone, mostly because the linesmakers have adjusted for him, but he still provides a positive return if you can get your wager in long before the inevitable adjustment occurs prior to the start of each game. Hirschbeck's over/under record for the last 2 seasons is only 28-27, but I'm guessing it is probably more like 22-33 if you go by opening numbers, which is more in line with his lifetime 90-143 record. Bolstering my argument is that Hirschbeck's K/BB ratio this year (2.22), is barely changed from his lifetime K/BB ratio of 2.26.
Mont/SF u10 -110 (oly) (risk 2 units) - Game already in progress, and looking promising so far with a score of 2-2 after 5 1/2. Home plate ump Phil Cuzzi (2.37 career K/BB ratio) was the major impetus behind this pick.
Chic/Milw u6.5 +109 (pinny) (2 units) - This one is purely an umpire play. As a rule I play the under everytime that John Hirschbeck is behind the plate, unless I percieve the line to be way out of whack. Hirschbeck is legendary in the gambling community for providing an almost automatic under every time he umped. Those days are pretty much gone, mostly because the linesmakers have adjusted for him, but he still provides a positive return if you can get your wager in long before the inevitable adjustment occurs prior to the start of each game. Hirschbeck's over/under record for the last 2 seasons is only 28-27, but I'm guessing it is probably more like 22-33 if you go by opening numbers, which is more in line with his lifetime 90-143 record. Bolstering my argument is that Hirschbeck's K/BB ratio this year (2.22), is barely changed from his lifetime K/BB ratio of 2.26.
Mont/SF u10 -110 (oly) (risk 2 units) - Game already in progress, and looking promising so far with a score of 2-2 after 5 1/2. Home plate ump Phil Cuzzi (2.37 career K/BB ratio) was the major impetus behind this pick.
Gotta add this one ...
Minn -130 over NYY (intertops) (risk 3 units) - Anyone know the phone number for the Johan Santana Fanclub - I'd like to join. This guy has been putting up Koufax-like numbers for 3 solid months and the linesmakers still won't give him his due. Consider this:
1. The Yanks Mike Mussina is having a horrible season (5.20 ERA) and is showing no signs of turning it around (20 ER's in his last 22 IP).
2. Despite having Rivera, Gordon, and Quantrill, the Yanks bullpen is actually inferior to the Twins (3.44 ERA to 3.58).
3. Remember that the Yanks will still be without ARod (suspension), who has been their most dominant player vs lefthanders this season.
4. The Yanks are not as dangerous after a loss as you might think (they were trounced by the Twins last night). They actually play worse after a loss than after a win this season (.619 win pct vs .653).
Now imagine what the line would be if the Yanks were facing Pedro, Hudson, or Schilling under the same conditions. It would no doubt be close to -200. Santana has been far superior to all 3 of these pitchers for at least the last 10 weeks and the line is a ridiculous -130. True, the Twins don't have the offense of the Sox or even the A's, but with Johan you only need 1 or 2 runs and your golden.
Minn -130 over NYY (intertops) (risk 3 units) - Anyone know the phone number for the Johan Santana Fanclub - I'd like to join. This guy has been putting up Koufax-like numbers for 3 solid months and the linesmakers still won't give him his due. Consider this:
1. The Yanks Mike Mussina is having a horrible season (5.20 ERA) and is showing no signs of turning it around (20 ER's in his last 22 IP).
2. Despite having Rivera, Gordon, and Quantrill, the Yanks bullpen is actually inferior to the Twins (3.44 ERA to 3.58).
3. Remember that the Yanks will still be without ARod (suspension), who has been their most dominant player vs lefthanders this season.
4. The Yanks are not as dangerous after a loss as you might think (they were trounced by the Twins last night). They actually play worse after a loss than after a win this season (.619 win pct vs .653).
Now imagine what the line would be if the Yanks were facing Pedro, Hudson, or Schilling under the same conditions. It would no doubt be close to -200. Santana has been far superior to all 3 of these pitchers for at least the last 10 weeks and the line is a ridiculous -130. True, the Twins don't have the offense of the Sox or even the A's, but with Johan you only need 1 or 2 runs and your golden.
Juggler, you're probably right about Hudson, but Pedro and Schilling would no doubt be -200 in this matchup. Hudson would still be higher than the ridiculous -130 Santana is getting. Remember, Yanks are only 4 games over .500 on the road this year, and they're facing arguably the best pitcher in the game in HIS ballpark and WITHOUT their own best player. I'm confortable with my play. I do thank you for your thoughts however.
I was watching the Angel's game and the announcers were commenting what a small strike Ed Montegue's strike zone was tonight. Ed Montegue was umpiring behind the plate instead of Darryl Cousins who was scheduled to umpire. I turned the TV off after there were 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th with the Angels up 6-1 and ARod coming in thinking we were losers. I turned the TV back on half an hour later and I see the Angels still on. I thought they were recapping the game but then I saw the score 6-4 and ARod still pitching. Angel's eventuallu won 6-4 but that was a nice surprise, how lucky!
Dynamite, are you sure that the announcers weren't wrong here? The box score indicates that it was Cousins behind the plate. Anyway, with 9 walks and only 8 strikeouts in a game, most of the time that game will go over. So I disagree that this was a lucky win. I prefer to think of it as narrowly avoiding an UNLUCKY LOSS. This makes up for my only loss of the day - on the Cubs/Brewers under, where there were only 20 hits, 3 walks, and 26 STRIKEOUTS in 11 innings - yet somehow 12 runs were scored.
Rex Hudler and Steve Physioc are the Angel's announcers and they were talking about Montegue's Strike Zone, I know for a fact. When I heard then talking about I looked up Montegue and saw his yearly record. He was scheduled at 1st base, which in turn would have him behind the plate tomorrow. I will check in the morning n mlb.com and let you know who is umpiring.
