key numbers and how much shld u pay to get them

[jimmyk+]

just wondering what the generally accepted opinion is regarding buying points to get a key number.........is this a good idea and if so, how much $ is considered fair for 3points to 2 1/2.............7 to 6 1/2...7 1/2 to 7

 

[jimmyk+]

actually, 7 1/2 to 7 is kinda silly eh ? buyin to a push seems rathe

r stupid

 

[Dante]

Jimmy..I think buying the 3 if its 3.5 and 2.5 if its 3 is of better value then buying off the 7..thats my opinion

[This message was edited by Dante on September 07, 2003 at 10:02 AM.]

 

[JoeyC]

3 is the number to beat in the NFL.

Why? OT ending with FG's

 

[jimmyk+]

so i shld just focus on 3 as a key # and forget about the others ?

 

[JoeyC]

%'s say the 3.

 

[jimmyk+]

how much shld i expect to pay for 1/2 point to 3...... 1 point to 3 ......?

 

[lurkerforages]

Joey, the reason the 3 and 7 are so powerful is also because of the 2 point conversion.

Sounds strange but sharps understand the concept.

 

[JoeyC]

10 cents for a 1/2 point, on or off a three.

BUT MOST STORES WON'T ALLOW BUYING ON/OFF 3 today.

 

[lurkerforages]

Joey, actually thats not correct.

If you can buy on/off the 3 for 20 cents that still a good bet.
-110 to -130
Breakeven is around 22-23 cents.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

tough concept to understand ROTFLMAO,

the two point conversions mean coaches target 3 and 7 so they can tie the game,. what a doozy.

jimmyk do your own work then you'll know the right and wrong answers, would you entrust your money to anonymous internet posters in any other field?

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

1.5 -1 0.97%
-2 -1.5 1.23%
-2.5 -2 2.42%
-3 -2.5 5.71%
-3.5 -3 3.50%
-4 -3.5 0.73%
-4.5 -4 0.74%
-5 -4.5 0.89%
-5.5 -5 0.76%
-6 -5.5 0.88%
-6.5 -6 1.11%
-7 -6.5 2.40%
-7.5 -7 0.89%
-8 -7.5 1.79%
-8.5 -8 1.19%
-9 -8.5 0.78%
-9.5 -9 0.00%
-10 -9.5 2.81%

This is from a Ben Dover post in the tech forum, he is about as credible a source for objective data as any I've come across on the net.

 

[lurkerforages]

SPV, I never said it was a "tough" concept to understand?
I said "strange concept"
Reading carefully is also a strange concept

Its not "just" about tieing the game its also about playing catchup or the team winning by 1 or 5 after the TD.
Maybe your answer suggest you havn`t thought about it that deeply.

Thanks for quoting something I didn`t even say.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

I didn't quote anything the implications are obvious that is all I posted.



BTW Jimmyk another thing is that all this data does is tell you what these things WERE worth, like any database it recounts history and grahpically explained what has already happened.

 

[jimmyk+]

i understand, and ur right , i really shld just do the work myself but i'm just gettin started here and i 've seen some pretty sharp posts here(like the chart you posted , sodium) and wanted some educated opinions........and you guys didn't disappoint...........tx for bein patient w/ the rook......

 

[lurkerforages]

Just to add while you are doing reseach seperate out the home dogs with road dogs as there is an interesting value trend which effects some point buys.
Get an NFL database.
Check it out but lay some heavy bias on results from 1994 till the present.

 

[jimmyk+]

tx lurk.............i see i got some serious work to do

 

[2006]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Joey, the reason the 3 and 7 are so powerful is also because of the 2 point conversion.

Sounds strange but sharps understand the concept. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Will you explain why? I would the think the 2pt conversion would mean less games ending in 3 and 7.

 

[2006]

Oops missed your post to SPV. I'm not buying it though, how about showing us some hard numbers.

 

[Sodium Pentethol V]

Sometimes its just better to go along with the crowd, the effect of the conversion to the key numbers is obvious.

DOn't believe it, do the work yourself.