The interactive is open...this fascination with the exit polling is absurd. I'm spending a shitloat on Bush now and will sell later on down the road when it becomes public knowledge how flawed the exit polling is.
From the NRO:
POLLSTER SPEAKS [KJL]
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:
At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.
This e-mail from a GOP insider is worth reading and passing on:
"There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states.
Also of note: right now we are ahead among Catholic in Wisconsin by ten points (we lost Catholics in Wisconsin in 2000). The same is true of Pennsylvania. And in the early exits nationally, we are getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote (in 2000, we received 35 percent).
One other thing: the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even.
I’m not being Pollyannaish here; the race will be a close one. But I would simply caution against putting too much weigh on such early polls. This drama has a ways to go before it fully unfolds. "
"Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.
As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know. "
"
From the NRO:
POLLSTER SPEAKS [KJL]
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:
At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.
This e-mail from a GOP insider is worth reading and passing on:
"There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states.
Also of note: right now we are ahead among Catholic in Wisconsin by ten points (we lost Catholics in Wisconsin in 2000). The same is true of Pennsylvania. And in the early exits nationally, we are getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote (in 2000, we received 35 percent).
One other thing: the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even.
I’m not being Pollyannaish here; the race will be a close one. But I would simply caution against putting too much weigh on such early polls. This drama has a ways to go before it fully unfolds. "
"Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.
As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know. "
"
<TABLE class=contents cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3 height=25><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lines-path height=20>World Sports Exchange / Long-Term Markets </TD><TD class=lines-menu-item align=right>Money Line Conversion Table </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2 height=0><HR width="100%" color=#000000 SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top noWrap width="25%"><!-- LI!VE BETTING MARKER BEGIN -->WOW!
<!-- LI!VE BETTING MARKER END --><TD width="5%"> </TD><TD class=long-contest vAlign=top align=middle width="70%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lines-contest-title colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lines-contest-title> US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004 (1-Pay)</TD><TD class=lines-contest-title align=right>$100 WIN </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=lines-contest-header><TD vAlign=bottom width="74%" height=25>Series Name <TD vAlign=bottom align=right width="8%">Sell <TD vAlign=bottom align=right width="8%">Buy <TD vAlign=bottom width="10%"> <TR class=lines-contest-oddrow><TD>DEMOCRATIC PARTY <TD align=right>69 <TD align=right>73 <TD> <TR class=lines-contest-evenrow><TD>REPUBLICAN PARTY <TD align=right>27 <TD align=right>31</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- LI!VE BETTING MARKER END --><TD width="5%"> </TD><TD class=long-contest vAlign=top align=middle width="70%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lines-contest-title colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=lines-contest-title> US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004 (1-Pay)</TD><TD class=lines-contest-title align=right>$100 WIN </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=lines-contest-header><TD vAlign=bottom width="74%" height=25>Series Name <TD vAlign=bottom align=right width="8%">Sell <TD vAlign=bottom align=right width="8%">Buy <TD vAlign=bottom width="10%"> <TR class=lines-contest-oddrow><TD>DEMOCRATIC PARTY <TD align=right>69 <TD align=right>73 <TD> <TR class=lines-contest-evenrow><TD>REPUBLICAN PARTY <TD align=right>27 <TD align=right>31</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
If you think Bush can still win you are grasping at straws. Millions and millions of dollars have flown toward the Kerry win bet. Only a relatively small portion come from people who respond to one dubious source of information.
A price like 2-1 implies at least 4-1 because, a la boxing, few people like to lay odds. AND Kerry bettors are already "down". AND some would still be concerned about late questionable surprises in Ohio and/or Florida. (I'm NOT saying Dems may not have done some shady stuff, just that it would take that SOON by the Repubs to stem the tide).
A price like 2-1 implies at least 4-1 because, a la boxing, few people like to lay odds. AND Kerry bettors are already "down". AND some would still be concerned about late questionable surprises in Ohio and/or Florida. (I'm NOT saying Dems may not have done some shady stuff, just that it would take that SOON by the Repubs to stem the tide).
