Dean appears to be in freefall. Here's the last 2 days' NH tracking from ARG:
Ballot Jan 20 Jan 21
Clark 18% 21%
Dean 24% 17%
Edwards 10% 10%
Kerry 29% 29%
Kucinich 1% 1%
Sharpton 0% 0%
Undecided 11% 15%
Clark passed Dean on the one-day sample post-Iowa. Looks like Dean's supprt went to Clark and undecided. Also being an anti-war outsider, Clark may benefit the most from Dean's bleeding.
Ballot Jan 20 Jan 21
Clark 18% 21%
Dean 24% 17%
Edwards 10% 10%
Kerry 29% 29%
Kucinich 1% 1%
Sharpton 0% 0%
Undecided 11% 15%
Clark passed Dean on the one-day sample post-Iowa. Looks like Dean's supprt went to Clark and undecided. Also being an anti-war outsider, Clark may benefit the most from Dean's bleeding.
Floyd, the thing to realize about that poll is that it's a 3-day average of Jan 19-21. The latest one-day sample actually had Kerry 32-21 over Dean. So it's not as close as those numbers would indicate.
Unless he makes some real blunders Kerry should win NH easily. It is his backyard afterall. The real test for him will then be to expand his appeal the South and West on 2/3. We'll see.
The better race will be between Dean and Clark for 2nd place. It's a bigger test for Dean because it's a killer if he can't even place in the frst two contests where he competed for both instensely and had seemingly insurmountable leads.
Hey, wasn't that you, Floyd, that posted about Dean's"whopping" 32 pt lead in NH?
Unless he makes some real blunders Kerry should win NH easily. It is his backyard afterall. The real test for him will then be to expand his appeal the South and West on 2/3. We'll see.
The better race will be between Dean and Clark for 2nd place. It's a bigger test for Dean because it's a killer if he can't even place in the frst two contests where he competed for both instensely and had seemingly insurmountable leads.
Hey, wasn't that you, Floyd, that posted about Dean's"whopping" 32 pt lead in NH?
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Floyd Gondolli:
The one-day polls always have the highest margin of error, that's why they generally do 3 day tracking polls.
And it was "Chuck Sims" that posted about Dean's 32 point lead saying the race was all but over. You just posted in that thread didn't you?? Can't you read?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I realize that now. I hope you can accept my deepest and most sincere apologies. I actually dd make an error.
As for the poll, that is true but the one-day poll also shows the trends better especially when there are evnts moving the numbers every day. Anything can happen, but NH seems a little more clear than Iowa...I feel pretty confident that it will be a Kerry, Clark, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman finish in NH.
The one-day polls always have the highest margin of error, that's why they generally do 3 day tracking polls.
And it was "Chuck Sims" that posted about Dean's 32 point lead saying the race was all but over. You just posted in that thread didn't you?? Can't you read?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I realize that now. I hope you can accept my deepest and most sincere apologies. I actually dd make an error.
As for the poll, that is true but the one-day poll also shows the trends better especially when there are evnts moving the numbers every day. Anything can happen, but NH seems a little more clear than Iowa...I feel pretty confident that it will be a Kerry, Clark, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman finish in NH.
From CNN
...In both polls, Kerry had 31 percent followed by Dean with 21 percent. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark was third in the polls with 16 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina at 11 percent and a badly slumping Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut with 4 percent...
Clark 16
Edwards 11
...In both polls, Kerry had 31 percent followed by Dean with 21 percent. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark was third in the polls with 16 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina at 11 percent and a badly slumping Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut with 4 percent...
Clark 16
Edwards 11
