Kentucky versus Louisville

[jbragg10]

First off, I think this game is a tossup. If Louisville can get steals and get some easy transition points, they will win. If it's a half court game, UK 's length will cause a problem. The press really hasn't hurt UK this year. Their turnovers come in the half court where they tend to get lazy and make weak passes. Kentucky did win by 7 without Randle in the second half (I think UK is playing much better than they were back then as well).

Pretty much controlled the game (Louisville hit 2 desperation three's at the end). At the end of the game, Russ actually said, "UK is just a really tough matchup for us" ... that is not something you want to hear if on Louisville.

As I was looking through the numbers on KenPom, I noticed this staggering statistic.

NONE of the AAC teams, other than Louisville, are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency.

Look at these numbers for the AAC
15 Louisville
56 Houston
57 Memphis- beat Louisville 2X
58 UConn
76 SMU
89 Temple
113 Cincinnati
146 UCF
149 Rutgers
229 South Florida

Non-conference
44 UNC- beat Louisville
67 Southern Miss
86 La Lafayette
154 Missouri St
167 Hofstra
226 Hartford
236 Fla International
241 Western KY
251 Cornell
272 UMKC
300 College of Charleston
310 Fairfield

How about the tournament teams ...
136 Manhattan
185 St Louis

Who is the best offensive team Louisville has faced? It's really not even close.
17 Kentucky

I tend to lean towards UK plus the points, but will play it small. Just wanted to share my thoughts (and I usually bet against UK) in case anyone really cared. lol

 

[Blacktype]

First off, I think this game is a tossup. If Louisville can get steals and get some easy transition points, they will win. If it's a half court game, UK 's length will cause a problem. The press really hasn't hurt UK this year. Their turnovers come in the half court where they tend to get lazy and make weak passes. Kentucky did win by 7 without Randle in the second half (I think UK is playing much better than they were back then as well).

Pretty much controlled the game (Louisville hit 2 desperation three's at the end). At the end of the game, Russ actually said, "UK is just a really tough matchup for us" ... that is not something you want to hear if on Louisville.

As I was looking through the numbers on KenPom, I noticed this staggering statistic.

NONE of the AAC teams, other than Louisville, are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency.

Look at these numbers for the AAC
15 Louisville
56 Houston
57 Memphis- beat Louisville 2X
58 UConn
76 SMU
89 Temple
113 Cincinnati
146 UCF
149 Rutgers
229 South Florida

Non-conference
44 UNC- beat Louisville
67 Southern Miss
86 La Lafayette
154 Missouri St
167 Hofstra
226 Hartford
236 Fla International
241 Western KY
251 Cornell
272 UMKC
300 College of Charleston
310 Fairfield

How about the tournament teams ...
136 Manhattan
185 St Louis

Who is the best offensive team Louisville has faced? It's really not even close.
17 Kentucky

I tend to lean towards UK plus the points, but will play it small. Just wanted to share my thoughts (and I usually bet against UK) in case anyone really cared. lol

Let's get this jbragg. I think we get this done tonight. If we play like we did the lAst two weeks, we win comfortably. If not, it could get dicey. Good luck.

 

[indiana]

JB/10..........always good to see your thoughts..........BOL with your action..........indy

 

[aderol]

spot on. glad to hear you're on UK

 

[MedicalMaryJ]

IMO teams like UConn and Memphis would be higher if they didn't play extremely good defensive teams all year, like Cincy twice, Louisville 3 times, SMU twice...that's tough to shine offensively.

 

[bones1980]

Uk will pull a Baylor tonight and not show up!! Lou 78- ken 64!

 

[jbragg10]

maybe ... we will see.

 

[sportsfantatic44]

just curious how many teams did Kentucky play against top 50 efficiency and what was their record vs. them (besides KY beating 'Ville).....

 

[Blacktype]

just curious how many teams did Kentucky play against top 50 efficiency and what was their record vs. them (besides KY beating 'Ville).....

Not well. Just curious what they did last week against an undefeated WSU? Maybe they can't put two together? I'm betting against it.

 

[jbragg10]

Teams UK played
Michigan St - 8 (loss)
Louisville -15 (won)
Tennessee - 17 (won)
Wichita St - 6 (won)
Baylor - 9 (loss by 5 neutral court)
North Carolina - 43 (loss by 5 @ UNC)
Belmont - 34 (win)
Florida - 16 (3 losses)
Providence - 23 (win)
Missouri - 32 (win)

Others within top 80 or so
OleMiss - 69 (2 wins)
LSU - 73 (2-1)
Cleveland St - 85 (win)

 

[bones1980]

They wouldn't be here tonight if not for the refs!! They make more money with uk vs Louisville rather than witchita st!!!

 

[sportsfantatic44]

Thanks for the breakdown. I never knew KY played that many teams in the top 50 category. Had some pretty good success too other than FLA. This game seems like a tossup. Kentucky is a matchup nightmare for Lousiville but KY is so maddeningly inconsistent that you just don't know what to expect from them.

 

[jbragg10]

Thanks for the breakdown. I never knew KY played that many teams in the top 50 category. Had some pretty good success too other than FLA. This game seems like a tossup. Kentucky is a matchup nightmare for Lousiville but KY is so maddeningly inconsistent that you just don't know what to expect from them.

I agree. Both teams are pretty inconsistent and go through bad stretches in games.
I think from a betting standpoint, I would roll with the team who has faced very good teams throughout the year. Even their losses have been very close. Free throws in beginning of year killed them in 4-5 games. I think they lost by a combined 12 points while missing 70+ free throws in those losses.

 

[jbragg10]

They wouldn't be here tonight if not for the refs!! They make more money with uk vs Louisville rather than witchita st!!!

You sound like a hater. When gambling, you have to put aside your differences. I personally bet against UK a lot (just ask people that have been here a long time and followed me).

 

[jbragg10]

With all that said ... Probably would stay away. Just wanted to share my opinions.
The rest of my picks are pretty much just hedging my regional futures bet. So nothing really playing tonight.
Really need Michigan St tonight and can't hedge on them at this point.

 

[Blacktype]

You sound like a hater. When gambling, you have to put aside your differences. I personally bet against UK a lot (just ask people that have been here a long time and followed me).

Bones bet SHOCKERS. It's ok Bones, don't get mad and bet the farm on the Ville for revenge or you might get double butthurt syndrome!

 

[bones1980]

I didn't bet shockers just stating a fact!!!

 

[bones1980]

Refs will not bail them out again!!! Luke will be on fire!!!

 

[Gooch]

With all that said ... Probably would stay away. Just wanted to share my opinions.
The rest of my picks are pretty much just hedging my regional futures bet. So nothing really playing tonight.
Really need Michigan St tonight and can't hedge on them at this point.

No No No! Don't do that, J.

Look, this KY team reminds me of Memphis (when playing UL), with more talent and yes, even less inconsistencies. They are a HUGE matchup problem for the Ville, and they KNOW it. Hell, Russ said it himself. The only way KY LOSES this game is if they are bricking FT's and Ville is shooting lights out the whole game (and even that didn't help Wichita as you saw).

And if the twins are getting the touch calls like they did vs. Wichita (as a poster above was trying to reference), KY by DD!

GL

 

[jbragg10]

Kentucky got calls because when you drive the ball on every possession with 6'5 guards, you will get them. Wichita was shooting jumpers. Did you expect them to get a lot of calls? I mean, UK didn't shoot their first free throw until 2 minutes left in the first half. Not sure how that is that cheating.
Kentucky shot 22 free throws. Wichita shot 18. Kentucky shot 6 of those in the last minute when being fouled on purpose. That means throughout the game, Wichita shot 2 more free throws in the game. How is that blatantly unbiased?