Kentucky, maybe others

[jaypaw]

KY pk

This is the time that teams like this step it up.

Ky was swept by Georgia, split with Vandy, and squeaked out tight games on the road at Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Florida.

However, Kentucky had some convincing road wins as well, beating "lower tier" teams Auburn, LSU, Indiana, and Marshall by an average of 17 pts (10pts adjusted for the indiana blowout), and also winning against "higher tier" teams Notre Dame, Michigan State, and UCLA.

I put SC in the lower category - and expect things to balance out tonight with a solid KY win.

and also remember that this guy Howell the senior forward for SC is out for the season now... Its not a major developement apparently because I guess his playing time was limited, but when these 2 teams met in Kentucky Howell had 5 pts on 7 attempts, 5 boards, 2 blocks, and a couple fouls - not a major impact on the game but certainly some impact on the game.


GL

 

[jaypaw]

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/preview?gid=200403030525

Losing a player over the weekend may have hurt South Carolina's NCAA tournament status.
Getting a win Wednesday will give it a big boost.

Minus big man Rolando Howell, the Gamecocks will look to pull off what could be a crucial upset when they face ninth-ranked Kentucky in a Southeastern Conference matchup.

While South Carolina (21-7, 8-6) is looking to assure itself of a spot in the field of 65, Kentucky (21-4, 11-3) has already wrapped the SEC East division title and a No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Not having Howell should make the Gamecocks' attempt to knock off the Wildcats much tougher.

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The 6-foot-9 forward had his collegiate career cut short Saturday, breaking his wrist in a 63-47 victory over Georgia. It was just South Carolina's second win in six games.

Howell, a former McDonald's All-American, has had a disappointing senior season but was starting to round into form. He had three double-doubles in four games leading up to Saturday, when he had 10 points and four rebounds in 21 minutes before leaving with the injury.

``Life is full of challenges. I've answered my challenges so far and I can answer this one,'' said Howell, who ended the season averaging 9.0 points and 5.4 boards.

His absence could affect how high a seed the NCAA tournament selection committee gives the Gamecocks, though coach Dave Odom pointed out the team went 11-1 without him earlier this season.

Still, Odom was brokenhearted for Howell, who has not reached the NCAAs and will be a spectator on the bench should the Gamecocks get an expected bid. It would be the school's first since 1998.

``He's worked so hard for that,'' Odom said. ``To have that pulled out from under him at the end is more than I can explain.''

Kentucky, fighting for a No. 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, was given a big scare at home by South Carolina on Feb. 7. Kerbell Brown missed a jumper in the waning seconds as the Gamecocks lost 65-64.

The Wildcats played that game without Gerald Fitch because of a strained ligament in his right hand, but the sharpshooter will be ready for the rematch.

The senior guard is coming off one of his best games of the season, shooting 5-of-8 from 3-point range and scoring 23 points in Sunday's 70-64 win over LSU.

``We've got a lot of veterans,'' said Fitch, a 42 percent 3-point shooter in SEC games. ``We've got a lot of guys who know how to win.''

Fitch is averaging a team-high 15.1 points and Erik Daniels is adding 14.8 per game for Kentucky, which has won four straight. The Wildcats wrapped up their fifth straight SEC East crown Sunday.

``A lot of good things have happened for us this year,'' Wildcats coach Tubby Smith said. ``Winning the Eastern Division championship is an unbelievable accomplishment.''

 

[jaypaw]

I think I'll just stick with Kentucky...

Thought about Georgia Tech maybe buying some insurance up to +14.5 but I dont think its worth it.

 

[jaypaw]

Fitch leads the team in PPG, 3ptattempts, 3pters made, and 3pt%.

There are 5 players on KY that average close to 30 mins per game and Fitch is one of them. The senior Barbour is the only other on the team that has played much - who averages 15 mins per game.

I don't know what their foul situation was that night but I can tell you that without fitch they were definitely undermanned.

In kentucky's last game (this past sunday) at LSU fitch played. He scored 23 pts, played 29 mins, was 5-8 from 3 range, shot 6-10 from the field, and was 6-8 in FTs.

 

[jaypaw]

Looking at St Johns (+30) in the context of a 4 team 10 pt tease...

BC is a good team but thats a lot of points. BC beat St johns by about that much (around 30) when St johns had 6 players suspended for some strip club thing. Now they have those guys back and things settled down so I dont see how BC wins by that much again.

 

[jaypaw]

Looking more for some good ones to throw into a 4 teamer and Kansas is one that sticks out.

I have to give Nebraska credit for beating Kansas in Nebraska by 19 pts. Kansas was a 2pt favorite at the time. This scares me in one sense but again I bring up the point that the good teams find a way to win down the stretch - especially at home.

Kansas in the 4team 10 pter would be +1.5


Still need one more team though...

 

[Kojak]

Jaypaw,

I would stay away from Ku as Padgett out and I have been impressed with the recent play of Nebraska as they are on the rise. Kent St. is a very safe play imo.GL>

 

[jaypaw]

padgett played 6 mins and had 2 pts in their 21 pt win over oklahoma

Even Oklahoma won @nebraska... I have to consider that an aberration to some extent and I gotta believe that kansas will be looking to avenge that loss now that they are at home.

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Jaypaw,
St John's has one of those players back, Tyler Jones. He was the 11th or 12th man. The main guys suspended (Reynolds, Ingram, Keita) are out of school. The guys they have left play hard but don't bet on the Johnies.

 

[jaypaw]

"Even Oklahoma won @nebraska... I have to consider that an aberration to some extent "


by abberation I mean the Nebraska mauling of Kansas in Nebraska

 

[jaypaw]

not even at +30?

 

[Kojak]

Nebraska last 7 games:

Missouri-won by 16
at Texas A & M -won by 6
Kansas- won by 19
Kansas St.- lost by 5
at OSU- lost by 4 in overtime
Texas Tech- won by 28
Iowa State- won by 3

Throw in they only lost at 2 at Texas as well. This team is improving while KU last 7:

Texas Tech- won by 19
at OSU-lost by 20
at Nebraska-lost by 19
Baylor-won by 20 ( tied at 7 minute mark)
Iowa State-won by 1
at Texas- lost by 15
OU- won by 21

You can tell they by these numbers they are solid at home but OU and TT were reeling, Baylor played a great game that day that is not indicated by score, and Iowa State should have upset them. They are the normal KU team. They will probably win here but it will a close game imo and it wont be by more than 5. Best of luck.

 

[jaypaw]

thanks kojak - good points.

I think KU will win this one.

Nebraska has been impressive. But I dont think they can sweep a team like kansas.

 

[jaypaw]

and just to be clear - I wouldnt touch that kansas -10 with a 10 foot schlong...

but i will take kansas to win in a 4 team10pt tease

 

[jaypaw]

ANYONE WHO WANTS TO RESPOND:

I'm on kentucky at pk

and I'm looking for a 4th team in a 4 team10pter to take along with these teams
KY -9
Kansas pk
St Johns +30
and...


if you had to give a team 10 pts tonight who would it be?

 

[jaypaw]

OOPS I meant ky +9

 

[jaypaw]

How about Iowa State guys?

+6 at home vs colorado?

 

[jaypaw]

After reading some of what Matt wrote I think I may add illinois to this list...

purdue is really in shambles and this keifer dude being out is just gonna add to it.

I may even take Illinois ATS here as well.

 

[jaypaw]

Here are my plays for the day finalized:

KY (got it last night at pk: see my thread from then http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=802099163&m=968103911&r=288106911#288106911)

Illinois -2

and the 4 team 10 point tease is:

St Johns +30½
Kansas +1½
Kentucky +8½
Illinois +8


I wish everyone the best of luck.

[This message was edited by Jaypaw on March 03, 2004 at 10:14 PM.]

 

[jaypaw]

lETS GO illini!