Kentucky Derby

[BillyKidd]

Synthetic surfaces have made this race a lot more difficult to handicap. Several of these horses have never raced on dirt or have not ran well when changed to dirt. I have to think that Pioneer of the Nile will transition ok due to his workouts at CD. Here are my picks.

1. I Want Revenge- mainly off his monstrous race in the Wood. He had all kinds of trouble and still got up to win. That kind of ability fits well in a race with 20 starters. He can stalk or close which should help in this race. He really has no negatives. Also a triple qualifier.
2. Friesan Fire-an off track seems to help his chances. I moved him up to this position because he beat Papa Clem by 7 lengths and I consider Papa Clem a contender. Negatives are he hasn't ran in 7 weeks. Some trainers can train a horse up to a race and Jones seems to be a trainer of this caliber. He hasn't ran beyond 1 1/16m which is a negative.
3. Pioneer of the Nile- a proven stakes horse that is very capable of winning this race. Only negative switching from synthetic to dirt. A good closer which is always a plus in the derby. Also a triple qualifier.
good longshots
1. Chocolate Candy-If Pioneer is a major contender then Candy is also. negative is synthetic to dirt. triple qualifier.
2. Papa Clem-good strong contender but I feel is a notch below the top 3.

 

[BillyKidd]

Thought I would add. I bet $50w on I Want Revenge on the futures at 13-1. I also have $50 on him in the double. Tomorrow I will do some exactas. Good luck to all.

 

[joeyp]

i have a $20 doubble with musketman and a $10 pick 3 with him

good luck

 

[Michelangelo]

Nice writeup BK. But I think the Wood (I Want Revenge's last) is 1 1/8 mi.

Good luck man.

 

[BillyKidd]

IWR scratched, just my luck. My future bet goes down the tubes. Back to the drawing board. This changes everything.

 

[BillyKidd]

After pondering all day, finally decided.
1. Pioneer of the Nile
2. Friesan Fire
3. Papa Clem

100 across on #16
10 exacta box 6,7,16