INDIAN COWBOY'S 2016 KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS
This is final and will not need an update unless #13 Nyquist scratches. If any of the other 11 horses scratch that are included in the three tickets, no update will be provided. It will just lower the total amount of our bet down. As it stands now our total bet will be $330. If one of the 11 other horses scratch, the total of the bet will be down to $270.
We will feature three trifecta bets this year:
Bet #1. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #13 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19. Total Cost of this bet - $110.
Bet #2. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #13 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19. Total Cost of this bet $110.
Bet #3. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #13. Total Cost of this bet $110.
Total Cost of All Three Bets - $330.
If No. 13 Nyquist finishes first, second, or third and the other 11 horses listed fill out the other two spots we will win the $1 trifecta. Remember to play the $1 trifecta instead of the $2 trifecta as this will double your total bet. If you still do not understand these bet, just print off this sheet and show it to the teller and they will be able to put in these bets for you.
This is final and will not need an update unless #13 Nyquist scratches. If any of the other 11 horses scratch that are included in the three tickets, no update will be provided. It will just lower the total amount of our bet down. As it stands now our total bet will be $330. If one of the 11 other horses scratch, the total of the bet will be down to $270.
We will feature three trifecta bets this year:
Bet #1. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #13 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19. Total Cost of this bet - $110.
Bet #2. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #13 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19. Total Cost of this bet $110.
Bet #3. $1 Trifecta Wheel. Key #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #2, #3, #4, #5, #9, #10, #11, #14, #15, #17, #19 over #13. Total Cost of this bet $110.
Total Cost of All Three Bets - $330.
If No. 13 Nyquist finishes first, second, or third and the other 11 horses listed fill out the other two spots we will win the $1 trifecta. Remember to play the $1 trifecta instead of the $2 trifecta as this will double your total bet. If you still do not understand these bet, just print off this sheet and show it to the teller and they will be able to put in these bets for you.
Robert Ferringo
142st Kentucky Derby Wagers
6 p.m., Friday, May 7
Churchill Downs
After last year's Triple Crown winner with American Pharoah what can horse racing do for an encore?
Well, don't look now, but there is another potentially dominating horse in Nyquist that could be ready for its close-up. Nyquist has won every race it has ever run. The horse is a perfect 7-for-7, taking on all of the best horses in this year's Derby Field on a variety of tracks all over the country. This horse has been brilliant but is getting about 1/100th of the buzz that Pharoah had coming into last year. Why? This year's class of 3-year-olds is a major drop-off from last year's group - and Nyquist could end up just being a few ticks below last year's all-time great horse. Is Nyquist going to win the Triple Crown? No. Definitely not. Would Nyquist beat American Pharoah? Nope. But this horse is head and shoulders better than what it is competing against this weekend and that is our key horse to hit the board on Saturday.
There's only one problem: the Derby typically is not a favorite's race. The race day favorite has only won the Roses five times in the last 25 years. And a single-digit favorite has won this race just 13 of the last 26 instances. So it is basically a 50-50 proposition whether or not a big underdog comes through. I have tabbed a few double-digit longshots that I think have a reach chance to come through. And if any of our horses come through - with Nyquist in the money - then we could hit an exacta AND a trifecta and it could end up being a pretty solid haul.
As with last year, there are a lot of closers but not many sprinters. So I actually expect a slower pace. This is an incredibly weak field of 3-year-olds overall compared to last year's banner group. Only four of the 20 horses have hit a 100 Beyer Speed Rating and several prep races were won with weak speed times like 88 or 90.
Enjoy the race and let's go Nyquist!
$20 EXACTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18
TOTAL WAGER: $220
This is our prime wager and the same type of bet that we hit for $800 in last year's Derby. This is also the bet that you can change the value of. If you don't want to bet as much money then you could lower this exacta to just $5 (making it a $55 total wager) or drop it down to a $10 exacta ($110 total wager).
$2 EXACTA BOX: No. 3, No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13
TOTAL WAGER: $48
These are probably my four favorite horses in the race. Creator has the right style, is one of the fastest horses, and has a great draw. There's a lot to like about Destin, who set a track record at the Tampa Bay Derby and has posted over a 100 Beyer while winning three of five races. Exaggerato hasn't been able to get over the hump against Nyquist, but you have to wonder if this horse is due. And, finnaly, Nyquist is the deserving favorite here and looking for win No. 8 in a row. I think these horses will battle.
$5 PLACE - No. 9 Destin
$5 SHOW - No. 9 Destin
TOTAL WAGER: $15
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18.
TOTAL WAGER: $110
If Nyquist wins then we have positioned ourselves in a great spot to hit our exacta AND cash this trifecta for what could be a HUGE day.
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18
TOTAL WAGER: $110
This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Place (finish second) in this race.
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist
TOTAL WAGER: $110
This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Show (finish third) in this race.
142st Kentucky Derby Wagers
6 p.m., Friday, May 7
Churchill Downs
After last year's Triple Crown winner with American Pharoah what can horse racing do for an encore?
Well, don't look now, but there is another potentially dominating horse in Nyquist that could be ready for its close-up. Nyquist has won every race it has ever run. The horse is a perfect 7-for-7, taking on all of the best horses in this year's Derby Field on a variety of tracks all over the country. This horse has been brilliant but is getting about 1/100th of the buzz that Pharoah had coming into last year. Why? This year's class of 3-year-olds is a major drop-off from last year's group - and Nyquist could end up just being a few ticks below last year's all-time great horse. Is Nyquist going to win the Triple Crown? No. Definitely not. Would Nyquist beat American Pharoah? Nope. But this horse is head and shoulders better than what it is competing against this weekend and that is our key horse to hit the board on Saturday.
There's only one problem: the Derby typically is not a favorite's race. The race day favorite has only won the Roses five times in the last 25 years. And a single-digit favorite has won this race just 13 of the last 26 instances. So it is basically a 50-50 proposition whether or not a big underdog comes through. I have tabbed a few double-digit longshots that I think have a reach chance to come through. And if any of our horses come through - with Nyquist in the money - then we could hit an exacta AND a trifecta and it could end up being a pretty solid haul.
As with last year, there are a lot of closers but not many sprinters. So I actually expect a slower pace. This is an incredibly weak field of 3-year-olds overall compared to last year's banner group. Only four of the 20 horses have hit a 100 Beyer Speed Rating and several prep races were won with weak speed times like 88 or 90.
Enjoy the race and let's go Nyquist!
$20 EXACTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18
TOTAL WAGER: $220
This is our prime wager and the same type of bet that we hit for $800 in last year's Derby. This is also the bet that you can change the value of. If you don't want to bet as much money then you could lower this exacta to just $5 (making it a $55 total wager) or drop it down to a $10 exacta ($110 total wager).
$2 EXACTA BOX: No. 3, No. 9, No. 11, and No. 13
TOTAL WAGER: $48
These are probably my four favorite horses in the race. Creator has the right style, is one of the fastest horses, and has a great draw. There's a lot to like about Destin, who set a track record at the Tampa Bay Derby and has posted over a 100 Beyer while winning three of five races. Exaggerato hasn't been able to get over the hump against Nyquist, but you have to wonder if this horse is due. And, finnaly, Nyquist is the deserving favorite here and looking for win No. 8 in a row. I think these horses will battle.
$5 PLACE - No. 9 Destin
$5 SHOW - No. 9 Destin
TOTAL WAGER: $15
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: NO. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18.
TOTAL WAGER: $110
If Nyquist wins then we have positioned ourselves in a great spot to hit our exacta AND cash this trifecta for what could be a HUGE day.
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18
TOTAL WAGER: $110
This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Place (finish second) in this race.
$1 TRIFECTA WHEEL: No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, No. 9, No. 10, No. 11, No. 14, No. 17, and No. 18 OVER No. 13 Nyquist
TOTAL WAGER: $110
This is keying our 11 horses over Nyquist to Show (finish third) in this race.
Marco D'Angelo
Analysis:
14 Mohaymen – Top Choice
Mohaymen has run one bad race in his career and that was his last race. Mohaymen raced on a wet track for the first time in his career that day and was caught wide the entire race. If we throw out the Florida Derby you have to consider this horse as he has the perfect style to Win the Derby. He has tactical speed to sit in the perfect stalking position in the second group of horses right off the pacesetters. Being in that stalking position he won’t have to worry about traffic problems like the deep closers in this race may have to deal with. We will be getting a great price because the money will be on Nyquist.
Mohaymen is our Top Choice and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
6 My Man Sam – Longshot Horse
Every year because of the inflated wagering pools I bet 2 horses WPS one horse is my top choice and the other is my Longshot horse. I bet the longshot for half of the amount as I do my Top Choice. My Man Sam is a lightly raced horse with only 4 starts and has license to make a big jump in improvement today. Horses that have 5 or less starts usually haven’t peaked yet and are capable of making a big jump up from one race to the next. I believe My Man Sam is sitting on a big race as I like the way he has progressed in his short career. Chad Brown has taken his time with this colt and in his final prep race he had no shot with the trip he had in Bluegrass. My Man Sam drew PP 14 in a 14 horse field. They went straight to the back of the pack with him and never made a move until coming off the final turn. My Man Sam was flat out flying rallying from 14th to 2nd and closing fast. This was a great set up race for him leading into the derby. He also gets regular Jockey Ortiz back up for this one.
My Man Sam is our Longshot and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
Exacta Wagers Total Bet = $110
$2 Exacta Box 2-6-11-13-14 = $40
$6 Exacta 14 with 2-6-11-13-17 = $30
$3 Exacta 2-6-11-13-17 with 14 = $15
$3 Exacta 6 with 2-11-13-14-17 = $15
$2 Exacta 2-11-13-14-17 with 6 = $10
Trifecta Wagers Total Bet = $200
$1 Trifecta 2-6-11-13-14- with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-4-5-6-11-13-14-17-20 = $140
$1 Trifecta 6-13-14 with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-5-6-11-13-14-17 = $60
Analysis:
14 Mohaymen – Top Choice
Mohaymen has run one bad race in his career and that was his last race. Mohaymen raced on a wet track for the first time in his career that day and was caught wide the entire race. If we throw out the Florida Derby you have to consider this horse as he has the perfect style to Win the Derby. He has tactical speed to sit in the perfect stalking position in the second group of horses right off the pacesetters. Being in that stalking position he won’t have to worry about traffic problems like the deep closers in this race may have to deal with. We will be getting a great price because the money will be on Nyquist.
Mohaymen is our Top Choice and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
6 My Man Sam – Longshot Horse
Every year because of the inflated wagering pools I bet 2 horses WPS one horse is my top choice and the other is my Longshot horse. I bet the longshot for half of the amount as I do my Top Choice. My Man Sam is a lightly raced horse with only 4 starts and has license to make a big jump in improvement today. Horses that have 5 or less starts usually haven’t peaked yet and are capable of making a big jump up from one race to the next. I believe My Man Sam is sitting on a big race as I like the way he has progressed in his short career. Chad Brown has taken his time with this colt and in his final prep race he had no shot with the trip he had in Bluegrass. My Man Sam drew PP 14 in a 14 horse field. They went straight to the back of the pack with him and never made a move until coming off the final turn. My Man Sam was flat out flying rallying from 14th to 2nd and closing fast. This was a great set up race for him leading into the derby. He also gets regular Jockey Ortiz back up for this one.
My Man Sam is our Longshot and we are betting him to Win-Place -Show
Exacta Wagers Total Bet = $110
$2 Exacta Box 2-6-11-13-14 = $40
$6 Exacta 14 with 2-6-11-13-17 = $30
$3 Exacta 2-6-11-13-17 with 14 = $15
$3 Exacta 6 with 2-11-13-14-17 = $15
$2 Exacta 2-11-13-14-17 with 6 = $10
Trifecta Wagers Total Bet = $200
$1 Trifecta 2-6-11-13-14- with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-4-5-6-11-13-14-17-20 = $140
$1 Trifecta 6-13-14 with 2-6-11-13-14 with 2-5-6-11-13-14-17 = $60
Wizard's 2016 kentucky derby
Pace Scenario With DANZING CANDY breaking from post 20, Mike Smith should have no trouble getting to the front with an alert break. He is simply quicker early than any other horse in the Derby field. The horses breaking from posts 1-2-3-4, TROJAN NATION, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and MO TOM have no early speed and figure to drop well back of the leaders early on. GUN RUNNER, DESTIN, NYQUIST, MOHAYMEN, OUTWORK, TOM'S READY, SHAGAF , EXAGGERATOR and MOR SPIRIT will spread out behind the pacesetter, some taking up the chase, but all within the top 10 positions entering the backstretch. MY MAN SAM, OSCAR NOMINATED, LANI, WHITMORE, MAJESTO and BRODY'S CALL are the others who are expected to do their running from the back of the pack.
The fractions set by DANZING CANDY will be honest with several horses making middle moves, which will result in the pace heating up around the far turn. I cannot recall a Kentucky Derby in recent memory that has so many deep closers who look very similar on paper and ability. A good trip or a bad one will spell the difference in the outcome of many of these runners. Obviously NYQUIST has the best credentials, but if he does not get the distance and the right set up as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, you can expect big prices and generous payoffs if he does not win.
M/L Jockey Trainer 1st Selection # 6 MY MAN SAM 20-1 ORTIZ, JR. I BROWN C
Along with Outwork and Shagaf, My Man Sam is the third horse in the Kentucky Derby field that has the least racing experience with just 4 starts. His inexperience should not be held against this steadily improving 3-year-old conditioned by top horseman Chad Brown.
Draw a line through his debut when a troubled fifth sprinting on the Aqueduct inner dirt track in December. 6 furlongs is far too short for him. It was evident My Man Sam wanted distance when he exploded to an 8 length maiden win stretching out to 2 turns for the first time in his 3-year-old debut. On March 6, My Man Sam was bet down to the 7-5 favorite, despite facing stakes winner Matt King Coal, who was the lone front runner in the field, but who was also returning from a layoff. As expected Matt King Coal took command right from the start and held on gamely, with My Man Sam cutting into his lead with every stride. Time had run out for him to overhaul the front runner on a track which played kind to speed.
My Man Sam had shown enough ability to search for the right Grade 1 stake to try to accumulate enough points to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than keeping him in New York for the Wood Memorial where Chad Brown had the favorite with Shagaf, Brown shipped his charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes. Little did the connections know until entries were drawn that a full field of 14 horses would break from the gate, with My Man Sam drawing post 14.
When I handicapped the race, there was really no hesitation on my part to make him my top selection, even knowing that his post was going to be very difficult for him to overcome. If My Man Sam had shown an affinity to race on or near the lead or even rate in mid pack, the outside draw would have certainly resulted in a very wide trip and certain defeat. The fact that he is a deep closer, gave jockey Julian Leparoux no choice but to take My Man Sam back to the rear of the field and ease his way to the inside. From that vantage point, racing a dozen lengths off the leaders, he could bide his time as the race developed in front of him and then ask My Man Sam to begin his rally on the far turn. This colt prefers to race outside of horses, so the danger from falling so far back and having to pass 13 horses, was likely to force Leparoux to take the overland route. My Man Sam, under a full head of stream, was fanned out towards the middle of the track turning for home. He had to find another gear once straightened out for the stretch run. Once he did, My Man Sam was picking up horses one-by-one. In the end, he had too much ground to make up and too little time to run down winner Brody's Cause who got the jump on him. In the end, it was post 14 that was the main culprit for his defeat. The fact that My Man Sam could even run second with so much ground loss, proved to everyone watching his performance that he was more than worthy of consideration as one of the major contenders in the Run for the Roses.
The question going forward is can My Man Sam continue to improve making only his fifth career start after having run nearly once a month since December. That is quite a bit of racing over a relatively short period of time. Like many others in the field, My Man Sam has no early speed and will drop well back off the early leaders into the clubhouse turn. He is not quite as slow in the early going as several others in the Derby field who I would label deep stone cold closers. I can see at least 5 other horses who could be lagging farther behind him.
My Man Sam is more a grinder than a horse with cat-like acceleration. My concern is that he will have to sustain too long a run, which could take the punch out of him in the late stages of the race. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz will be back aboard. Ortiz is one of racing's bright young jockeys, who has a keen sense of timing. Ortiz will have to utilize every ounce of his talent to time his move just perfectly and avoid trouble in the midst of his late run. It is certain that Chad Brown will have My Man Sam as good as hands can make him. If everything falls just in place and the stars are aligned for his connections on Saturday, My Man Sam can win the Kentucky Derby at a generous price.
My Man Sam drew post 6 which is ideal for him, unlike post 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like many others in this field, he will have to work out a trip, but I have complete faith in Irad Ortiz Jr. that he will get My Man Sam to settle and avoid trouble and too
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wide a trip. I picked My Man Sam to win the Blue Grass without Irad aboard. Now one of my favorite riders is back in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning-line, My Man Sam now becomes my top pick. Since I can see either of my top 4 selections winning, this year's Kentucky Derby becomes a 'price play' for the Wizard. At those generous odds which I expect My Man Sam to be, I'll take my shot for a generous payoff and hold my breath for a trouble free journey.
2nd Selection #19 BRODY'S CAUSE 12-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D
The son of Giant's Causeway is the only horse entered in the Derby field who can say he is 'Kentucky's' hometown boy. There are many in the field who have been bred in the 'Blue Grass' state. Not only was Brody's Cause born here, but his trainer Dale Roman has been a fixture on the Churchill Downs backstretch since taking out his trainer's license in 1984. Born in Louisville and a son of a former trainer, Roman's saddled his first winner at Turfway Park in Florence Kentucky three year later. Romans has saddled many Grade 1 stakes winners since, including three Breeders' cup victories, winning the 2005 Dubai World Cup with Roses In May and the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford. Other notable horses trained by Roman's are Kitten's Joy, Paddy's O'Prado, Little Mike and who could forget Keen Ice who he predicted would upset American Pharoah in last year's Travers Stakes at 16-1 odds and he did just that. The highlight of Dale Roman's career came in 2012 when he was the recipient of the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer. But all these accomplishments would pale in comparison to winning the one race which has eluded him, the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Romans has started six horses in the Derby. The closest he has come are a pair of third place finishes with Paddy O'Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012. This year Dale Romans, along with successful owner Albaugh Family Stable (owner of Paddy O'Prado) arrive at the big dance with Brody's Cause, who completes the Kentucky connection.
Brody's Cause began his career on turf at Ellis Park located in Henderson Kentucky. He was defeated by 25 lengths that day and has never seen the grass again... except for eating it. Brody's Cause made a huge turnaround when placed on dirt for the first time 41 days later at a 1 turn mile at Churchill Downs to upset a strong maiden field at 33-1. He proved that win was no fluke by stepping up sharply in class into the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October to score again, this time at 11-1. In both races, Brody's Cause picked off rivals one by one from the back of the pack.
Brody's Cause had earned the chance to conclude his 2-year-old campaign with a victory and Eclipse Award as the top 2-yearold in the country in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Churchill Down leading rider Corey Lanerie, who had been aboard for the first time in the Breeders' Futurity victory, was once again content to let Brody's Cause lag far off the early leaders. He made up ground at every call to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. If the race had been run at 1 1/8 miles, a 1/16th of a mile longer, Brody's Cause would probably have won. Dale Roman's and anyone who observed Brody's Call strong finish, knew that Roman's had a quality 2-year-old, soon to be 3, on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Brody's Cause first race back from his Breeders Cup loss would be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He would be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff and racing outside of Kentucky for the first time. Bet down to the favorite at 2-1 for the first time in his career, Brody's Cause was bumped soon after the start. He took up his usual position at the back of the pack. At the half mile pole, he was 12 lengths back of the leader. He never picked up a hoof, finishing 12 lengths back at the wire, beating only 2 horses, in what was beyond a disappointing performance. What had possibly gone wrong for Brody's Cause to finish a well beaten seventh?
Whether it was not handling the quirky Tampa Bay surface, Florida heat and humidity, the lengthy layoff or simply an 'off day', no one knew for certain. Even Romans and his longtime companion Tammy Fox, a former jockey and for several years Romans main exercise rider and integral part of his successful stable, had no answers to Brody's Cause not showing up that afternoon at Tampa.
It was time to put that race behind them and seek redemption four weeks later back in the friendly confines of the state of Kentucky at Keeneland race-course. Brody's Cause would have to show big improvement and at the very least hit the board, to provide his connections with the confidence he was worthy of a start in the Kentucky Derby. They only had to wait 1:50 1/5 seconds to have their answer. Brody's Cause was back to himself with a decisive 1 3/4 length victory against 13 rivals. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, Brody's Cause rallied from far back to split horses in mid-stretch and win with plenty left in the tank. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the first time, asked Brody's Call to begin making his move midway on the far turn. Knifing his way between horses and then easing outside and splitting rivals again in mid-stretch to take the lead, Saez still had enough left to fend off the late run of My Man Sam and Cherry Wine. Brody's Call's victory, which was a huge rebound from his Tampa debacle, should not be underestimated. What's so impressive is that he could sustain such a long rally, while navigating his way through traffic, and still prevail.
Brody's Call enters the Kentucky Derby with renewed confidence and must be considered a major player. Dale Romans is a master at pointing a horse to a major race and winning at generous odds. Brody's Cause will have to take another step forward to win the Derby, but what I expect to see on Saturday is a career best performance stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. However, like many others in this field who are deep closer's, it will come down to a trouble free trip and a well-timed ride. If both happen, Brody's Cause is on a short list of those likeliest to succeed closing from far back.
When posts were drawn, Brody's Call drew 19. With the pacesetter breaking in post 20, it comes down to what type of trip jockey Luis Saez can work out. He will have to take back as was expected, but now Saez must try not to lose too much ground as he
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attempts to move closer inside to avoid a very wide journey. If Brody's Call had drawn a better post, he would have been my top selection. The most difficult thing for me in races like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, when I like a horse that I planned on putting on top who does not get any number of post positions which I was looking for, is having to call a late audible. In this case, I must call the audible.
3rd Selection #13 NYQUIST 3-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D
Nyquist brings an unblemished record, 7 starts with 7 wins and $3.2 million in earnings, into the Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite. He has won at 5 different distances at 4 different races tracks. Nyquist has won on the lead, stalking up close and even closing from well back of the leaders, as he did in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, after being bumped hard at the start. That victory resulted in his fifth straight victory, earning him an Eclipse Award and the role as the future book favorite for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Can history repeat itself for the trio of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez? All three orchestrated the 15-1 upset victory by I'll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Unlike I'll Have Another, whose final Derby prep came in the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist shipped across country to contest the Florida Derby as his final tune up. The decision was based on the $1-million-dollar bonus his owner would receive as a result of being sold at a 2-year-old sale in Florida.
Nyquist would face off with Mohaymen, who was also undefeated in 5 starts. Mohaymen held a big 'home court' edge. He had spent the winter in south Florida and had 2 stakes wins to his credit at Gulfstream Park as a 3-year-old. Mohaymen had also proven himself at the Florida Derby distance, winning the Remson at Aqueduct in his final start at 2. For these reasons, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5 with Nyquist at 6-5. The odds of the other 8 runners ranged from the third choice going off at 15-1 to the longest price in the field at 180-1. This unusual betting variance in the Florida Derby tells an interesting tale. The obvious is that handicappers and the betting public clearly felt it was a 2 horse race, which it clearly looked like on paper. What the odds also told you was that the opposition was simply overmatched on all handicapping principles. Some were considered so outclassed, that you wondered if they could even win an entry-level Allowance race. One horse was still a maiden. 6 others had only a maiden win to their credit. Fellowship, who was making his 11th start, had won 2 races, a win in his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs and a win around 2-turns last October. To put it mildly, other than Mohaymen and Nyquist, this was one bad Florida Derby field!
As soon as the gate opened for the Florida Derby, you knew right away that Gutierrez was going to be aggressive and ride Nyquist like he was the best horse in the race. The tactics were simple, 'catch me if you can'. It was no free pass for Nyquist on the front end, except that the 2 horses who put pressure on him were the 124-1 maiden and a 136-1 recent maiden claiming winner for a $50,000 tag. Fighting those 2 rivals off to await the challenge of Mohaymen would set the stage for a stretch battle which never materialized. Sometimes there are outcomes which are simply 'head scratchers'. We all knew where Nyquist was positioned turning for home. Now our sights were set squarely on Mohaymen to await his attack. Just as quickly as he began to make his move while racing wide turning for home, it only took a few more strides to realize that Mohaymen would come up empty. He flattened out to finish a well beaten fourth, an inexplicable 8 1/4 lengths back of the Nyquist. Nyquist showed up to the dance. Mohaymen declined the invitation when it was time to respond.
What did the outcome of the Florida Derby tell us? It told us Nyquist is a very good horse and even a deserving favorite, who will be over bet because of his credentials. He defeated an awful field in a race where something had to be amiss with the favorite to have run so poorly. The main track had plenty of moisture and was labeled 'good' from the rains which fell on and off throughout the day. The track had been sealed and then the seal was removed for the Florida Derby after 3 previous stakes races which were run on grass. From the last dirt race run at 4:34 PM, to the start of the Florida Derby which went off at 6:57 PM, a span of 2 hours and 23 minutes, a lot changed with the dirt surface, which had a hand in the final outcome. It was a quirky track that that some horses handled and others did not.
When I look closely at Nyquist's lifetime past performances, I see a horse who faced a west coast based horse named Swipe in 4 of his 5 starts as a 2-year-old. Swipe ran second each time. Swipe returned in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in his 3year-old debut April 16 as the co-favorite and was awful. Nyquist was impressive winning the BC Juvenile, but he did have a relatively trouble free trip. In the San Vincente, which was his first start at 3, he beat a quality horse in Exaggerator as the 1-5 favorite breaking from the rail against only 4 rivals.
For all Nyquist's conquests and the fact that he is battled hardened and the will to win, I still cannot pick him as my top selection. Many people will point out that his pedigree is not suited to 1 1/4 miles. I put little credence in that statement because he does have enough stamina influence on his dam side, and speed and middle distance from his sire Uncle Mo. The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race in that 20 horses will all be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their career and may never see that distance again. Nyquist is a very good horse and in the end could develop into a great horse. Nevertheless, as the clear cut betting favorite and a horse who certainly has all the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby, I have enough reasons not to choose him as my top selection. He will be included in many of my exacta and trifecta wagers.
4th Selection #14 MOHAYMEN 10-1 ALVARADO J MCLAUGHLIN K
Mohaymen took his unblemished record of 5 wins in 5 starts into the Florida Derby. 3 of those victories came as a 2-year-old, including a win in the Remsen at Aqueduct to conclude his juvenile campaign. With Mohaymen on the sidelines, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist was voted 2-year-old horse of the year. A legitimate argument could be made over which horse was the best juvenile colt. If you believed that Mohaymen was the better of the two, the debate would be settled at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby where these two undefeated 3-year-olds would face off in what looked on paper to be a 2 horse race.
In the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5, with Nyquist at 6-5. The rest of the field was 15-1 and higher. What was billed as a "match race" ended up nothing of the sort. Nyquist proved much the best with a decisive win. Mohaymen could not have been any more disappointing, finishing a well beaten fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The result of the Florida Derby will now have a huge impact on the odds on these two runners when they meet up for part two of their encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If Mohaymen had won the Florida Derby, he would no doubt be the 'clear cut' betting favorite in the Run for the Roses at around 7-2. Nyquist would be in the vicinity of 8-1. A switch in roles and closing odds between these two now changes, with favorite Nyquist going off in the vicinity of 4-1.
Handicappers and the betting public have short memories. Many times too much emphasis is placed on a winning or losing effort. In Mohaymen's case losing by such a lengthy margin and even being out finished by two long shots, who on paper had no right at all to finish in front of him, makes you have to come up with some very sound reasons to draw a line threw his race. After thinking about it long and hard, I am doing just that.
First and foremost, Mohaymen ran well enough in his 5 previous starts to distinguish himself as a top class 3-year-old, especially when compared to many on the Derby trail who are nothing more than good horses with much to prove. In the Florida Derby Mohaymen was asked to run over a very 'quirky' wet track for the first time in his career. He never seemed comfortable over the footing. Mohaymen raced wide throughout on the part of the track which appeared more tiring than the inside paths. He was unable to get any traction to sustain a move he began making approaching the stretch, but then flattened out from the 3/16th pole to the wire. It was also a hot and humid day with a big crowd. Perhaps something was amiss that would only be discovered after he was walked back to the barn and cooled out.
Finding legitimate excuses to discount a race is only one piece of the puzzle. The main piece is what has developed in the days following the race as a horse like Mohaymen prepares for his date with destiny. You look for clues like insightful comments by the connections and, most importantly, how the horse trains leading up to the race. When Mohaymen ran in the Florida Derby, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was in a rare bad slump. One week earlier, he had fired blanks with all his starters at Meydan, in the Dubai World Cup races. His prized runner, Frosted, from whom he expected big things, came up totally empty. We all have our bad runs and good runs. It's a fact of life and racing is no exception. McLaughlin is a super horseman and time heals all ills. He has been at Churchill supervising the training of Mohaymen since he arrived in mid-April. He wants no stone unturned in his preparation. You want to see your Derby horse work well over the surface. Mohaymen has done just that, working brilliantly under the Twin Spires. McLaughlin has been 'fine tuning' a little bit with the shoeing, adding glue on shoes which seems to improve a lot of horses.
I expect a vastly improved performance by Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby. He is bred on both his sire and dam side to adapt well to 1 1/4 miles. His best asset is his tactical speed, which will allow jockey 'Junior' Alvarado to settle him in perfect striking position early on and get first run on both the mid pack runners and the deep closer's. Mohaymen has been the favorite in all 6 starts at odds as low as 2-5, but never higher than 9-5, which was in his career debut. In the Kentucky Derby you will be generously rewarded at a price you would never dream of getting before the Florida Derby and possibly never again if Mohaymen redeems himself on Saturday.
Mohaymen drew post 14 which is ideal for his stalking running style. 'Junior' Alvarado should be able to work out a good trip without much ground loss. Now it's up to Mohaymen to show that his last race was an aberration and he is up to the task winning at 1 1/4 miles.
5th Selection # 2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1 QUINONEZ L VON HEMEL D
This 3-year-old gelding is a mirror image of several deep closers in this year's Kentucky Derby field. Like those horses, Suddenbreakingnews has been a gem of consistency, winning 3 races, twice in stakes and placed 4 times in 8 career starts. His lone off the board finish was when he ran 5th as the 5-2 favorite breaking from post 14. Only once has he shown any early speed and that was in his maiden win setting a pressured moderate pace going a mile at Remington Park. It's very unusual to see a horse show speed in just 1 race, but in every other start flounder towards the back of the pack before unleashing a late rally.
Mid-west based and longtime horseman Donnie Von Hemel, as expected, took the Arkansas route with Sunddenbreakingnews. To illustrate how far back he is positioned after the first 1/2 mile, just look at the number of lengths he lags behind the leader in
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his last 3 starts. In the Southwest he was last of 14 runners, 12 lengths back. In the Rebel he was in 13th place, 10 lengths back and in the Arkansas Derby he raced in 9th position, also 10 lengths back of the pacesetter.
Over a 'good' track in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews rallied in the stretch like he was shot from a cannon to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Then came the Rebel, his only off the board finish. Last time out in the Arkansas Derby, his regular rider Luis Quinonez made the last move, swinging out widest into the stretch. He rallied to get the place money, while set up perfectly by the fast fractions, collapsing speed and a perfectly timed ride.
There is no reason to expect that Suddenbreakingnews will not be positioned towards the back of the pack entering the backstretch in the Kentucky Derby, some 15-20 lengths off the early leaders. He has the benefit of a rider who knows him well, having ridden the 3-year-old in all 8 starts. Like the other deep closers in the field, any success he will have will be directly correlated to the amount of trouble he can avoid. He should get the right pace set up to close into, so the question then becomes if he does have a trouble free trip, is he good enough to win.
Suddenbreakingnews is bred to on both his sire and dam side to have no trouble handling the Derby distance. Even though he has only raced at Oaklawn and at Remington, switching to Churchill should not be an issue. Von Homel has trained over 70 stakes winners in his career with Evansville Slew, Custer, Leave a Legacy, Explosive Girl and Bien Nicole among his notable stars. Even though Suddenbreakingnews has been successful over a dry track, I feel he may be better racing on a wet surface. I would not be shocked if he won the Derby at big odds, especially how good he has been training at Churchill Downs. It is more likely Suddenbreakingnews ceiling is an 'on the board finish' if everything falls just right for horse and rider. This is a huge bomb who must be included in some of your wagers.
6th Selection # 5 GUN RUNNER 10-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S
With the lone exception of a determined fourth place finish in his lone start over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at Churchill last November, Gun Runner is undefeated in 4 starts over a dry surface. He broke his maiden going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in his career debut. The fact that Gun Runner has run well over the track is a feather in his cap.
Trainer Steve Asmussen took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby with Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride was a game winner in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his 3-year old debut off an 84-day layoff. 35 days later Gun Runner scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. In both those races, he was ridden by Florent Geroux, who will be back aboard for the Derby.
I have mixed feeling concerning Gun Runner's ability to win the Kentucky Derby. In his favor is his versatility. In a race which features a lot of deep closer's and several others who will be positioned well off the early leaders entering the backstretch, Gun Runner has shown he can be placed in perfect striking position early on allowing Geroux to get first run on the closer's. His will to win and his experience over the Churchill dirt surface has been documented. Gun Runner is also bred for distance. His dam won 5 of her 6 races going long. What concerns me is the quality of competition he defeated as a 2-year-old and in both starts this year.
The 3-year- olds at Fair Grounds were no better than average. In the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner could not have fallen into a better trip and pace scenario. The fractions he stalked were at best moderate. He easily took command from a very tired pacesetter turning for home and quickly opened up a clear lead. In mid-stretch, Gun Runner drifted towards the rail racing a bit erratically and then switched to his wrong lead. In most instances I would say that he was getting leg weary, which does not bode well on the first Saturday in May when asked to run an additional 1/8th of a mile. You can also look at this erratic behavior another way. This was the first time Gun Runner had opened up such a lengthy lead on his closest pursuer in mid-stretch. He could have just been 'playing around' looking for some competition to challenge him. Gun Runner's margin of victory was 4 1/2 lengths. If rival Mo Tom would not have checked sharply in the midst of his closing rally in mid-stretch, Gun Runner would have probably still won, but it would have been a much closer finish.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won many prestigious Grade 1 races, but the closest he has come to winning the Kentucky Derby was a third place finish with Curlin in 2007. Gun Runner's owner Verne Winchell has had 3 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Go Go was his closest finisher when he ran fourth in 1981. In 1991 his Sea Cadet, known as the 'Tailless Wonder', finished eighth. Winchell's last starter was Valiant Nature who finished thirteenth in 1994. Gun Runner provides both Asmussen and Verne Winchell their best chance to win their first Kentucky Derby.
7th Selection #15 OUTWORK 15-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
Winning a horse race is no easy task, and the degree of difficulty in winning the Kentucky Derby is multiplied many times over. Trainer Todd Pletcher enters 2 runners this year, and one cannot adequately analyze his Derby entrants without examining his overall Derby record. Pletcher has a total of 43 Kentucky Derby runners through 2015. To summarize a Washington Post article penned last year by handicapper Andy Beyer: Pletcher has had but a single winner, Super Saver, from 43 Derby starters. Fully 29 of the 43 have finished 9th or worse. It is near mind boggling that a trainer who owns high percentage stats in nearly every
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category of training horses has been so abysmal in the Derby, given he trains nothing but the best well-bred runners. In truth, Todd Pletcher has had significantly more "at bats" in the Derby than most trainers. Since he usually has the horse flesh, that 1/43 record must come down to both racing luck and method of preparation for this unique race. Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby by two horses, Destin and Outwork. Of particular interest this year, in the context of his overall record, is the different prep path for each of his 44th and 45th Derby starters.
Destin has the more versatile running style as he has shown the ability to stalk, attack and finish. Outwork is a bit more forwardly placed early on. In 4 career starts, the farthest back he has been from the lead is a half-length after a 1/4 mile and a head off the lead after a 1/2 mile. Twice Outwork took command right from the start.
After breaking his maiden going 4 1/2 f in his debut in April 2015, Outwork was laid up until resurfacing Feb 13 at Tampa Bay Downs stretching out to 6f. He easily won his return after fighting off a stiff challenge into the stretch. Outwork's victory set him up nicely to try to rack up some Derby qualifying points in the Tampa Bay Derby. He would face off with Destin, a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher. Outwork set the pace right from the start with his stable-mate in close pursuit. These 2 would battle tooth and nail down the stretch with Destin prevailing by a length at the wire. Unlike Destin, who has trained up to the Kentucky Derby as a result of earning enough points to safely insure a start, Outwork would have to travel to New York for the Wood Memorial, needing at least a second place finish to get him into the field.
In the Wood, Outwork would be confronted by a wet track for the first time and pick up 7 Lbs. traveling 1 1/8 miles. Jockey John Velazquez, who had been aboard Outwork for all three previous starts, was back on. Velazquez wasted no time hustling the son of Uncle Mo to put pressure on the pacesetter Matt King Coal. He raced just a head back of that rival until edging clear at the top of the stretch. Outwork was able to fend off the closers late, in particular the maiden and 81-1 shot Trojan Nation, who was gaining on him in the final yards, just running out of ground to finish a head short of a monumental upset. Considering the track conditions, a new distance and racing right on on top of a fast pace, Outwork gutted out a very impressive victory, proving he is more than worthy of starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.
My main concern for Outwork is his running style. He has not yet shown that he can rate a few lengths behind a pacesetter, attack and finish. It must be assumed that his best game is racing on the lead or sitting right off of it. With the fleet footed Danzig Candy expected to establish the front end early with a good break from the gate, Velazquez has no choice but to take up a tracking position. If he uses him early not to allow Danzig Candy a free ride on the lead, both runners will be cooked at the top of the stretch. If Velazquez takes back, he will have to make a middle move, something that Outwork has never done before.
Outwork has been training beautifully since arriving at Churchill Downs. As far as size goes, he is the biggest 3-year-old in the field. There is no doubt in my mind that Outwork will handle the Derby distance just fine. If Velazquez can get him to relax early, Outwork will get first run on many of his rivals, which could prove to be a huge tactical advantage. Despite Pletcher's abysmal record in the Kentucky Derby, Outwork must be respected as win candidate for high profile owner Mike Repole.
8th Selection #11 EXAGGERATOR 8-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J
Exaggerator is one of more experienced and accomplished horses in the field. All four wins have come at four different race tracks and at four different distances. As a 2-year-old, his first two victories came in sprints last summer. The first was his maiden win at Del Mar. Exaggerator then shipped east and won a Grade 2 stake at Saratoga. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a stakes victory at Delta Downs, earning him 60 % or $600,000 of the $1-million-dollar purse.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to take the Santa Anita route to the Kentucky Derby, mapping out a three race campaign to have Exaggerator in peak form the first Saturday in May. He returned from an eighty six day layoff in the San Vincente at 7f. Showing speed from the start, Exaggerator chased quick fractions outside of Nyquist, but was unable to make up any ground on that rival through the stretch, finishing a very determined second. 26 days later in the San Felipe, stretching back out to two turns, Exaggerator was forced out at the start, quickly finding himself last of six runners. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, riding for his brother, made a huge middle move into second with dead aim on pacesetter and eventual winner Danzig Candy midway on the far turn. Exaggerator fought hard through the stretch to cut into the pacesetter's lead, but came up short and had to settle for third.
With two sharp races off the layoff under his belt, Exaggerator was primed for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. It rarely rains in southern California in the spring and for the most part, dry weather can be an everyday occurrence for weeks on end. When the track comes up sloppy, it creates havoc in predicting the outcome of races, because most of the horses rarely run on sloppy tracks nor do they train over it. There was an unsettling weather pattern in southern California the week leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. That Saturday, the track was a quagmire throughout the 12 race card. The lukewarm favorite was Mor Spirit, who had run second in the his only start over a wet track at Churchill. 26-1 Uncle Lino who ran third, had one race in the slop at 5f, where he was beaten a neck. The 8-5 second choice in the betting Danzig Candy, had never run on wet track. Only one horse in the field, Exaggerator had a win and a second place finish on wet tracks, both in graded stakes. The rest of the field had no wet track experience.
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Once the gate opened for the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy, who was a bit fractious loading, ran off to a big lead into the first turn. Jockey Mike Smith was unable to throttle him down, resulting in a blistering pace which would take its toll on Danzing Candy in mid-stretch. The beneficiary of the pace meltdown was Exaggerator. His trainer's original plan was to stay close to the pacesetter early because Desormeaux felt that on wet tracks you are compromised if you have to close from far back. His plans were scrapped when Danzing Candy bottomed out the field early and Kent Desormeaux wisely elected to settle Exaggerator and make one late run. The last move was the winning move, as Exaggerator just inhaled the front runner at the top of the stretch with a perfectly timed rally, and drew off to an easy 6 1/4 length win. He could not have gotten a better pace set up, ride and trip over a wet surface he simply glides over.
Exaggerator's best trait is his versatility. He has proven he can win from on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. In the Kentucky Derby, he figures to be rating in mid pack before making his customary middle move. Unlike in the Santa Anita Derby when everything possible fell his way, this scenario is not likely to occur in a twenty horse field going 1 1/4 miles.
Exaggerator gets his stamina from his sire Curlin, but his dam line is slanted more towards sprint and middle distances. He has faced Nyquist three times and has lost all three. It is difficult for me to envision him turning the tables on that rival at the Derby distance, especially on a fast track. Exaggerator is a horse I will only use underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers.
9th Selection # 3 CREATOR 10-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S
It took Creator six starts before he broke his maiden. It was not for lack of quality or being entered in difficult spots that prevented this well bred son of top sire Tapit from winning.
For starters, Creator has no early speed, which compromises his chances. He falls victim to the pace scenario and having his rider navigate him through traffic, especially in large field sizes which Creator has faced in most of his starts. Even his past performance trouble lines will point this out with such notations as 'wide', 'shuffled back', 'bumped', 'waited' and 'thru traffic'. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 starters, it is likely another trouble line comment will be added to this list.
When Creator finally put it together in one of few races where the only comment from the chart caller was 'wide', he sustained a powerful and very impressive run through the stretch as if shot from a cannon to win by 7 1/4 lengths on February 27 making his first start at Oaklawn Park. In a bold move by newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Creator was entered in the Rebel Stakes. Once again Creator fell back into another zip code early on. He put in his customary late run, finishing third. The only way Creator and his high profile owners WinStar Farm would be represented in the Kentucky Derby with Creator was a victory and at minimum as second place finish 4 weeks later in the Arkansas Derby. Under a picture perfect ride by Oaklawn Park's leading rider Santana, Creator rallied through traffic from the back of the pack to split horses late, springing an 11-1 upset victory and earning him a date with destiny.
Like several others in the Derby field, Creator will find himself many lengths off the early leaders passing the Twin Spires for the first time. And like his fellow one-run deep closers, Creator will put in his customary late rally. Everything must fall into place for him to loom a danger in the latter stages of the race.
Creator is a talented 3-year-old whose human connections must be respected as much as his equine ability. Nevertheless, Creator is not the type of horse I could select on top, because he is would be more a 'wish and a prayer' selection that the seas will part and he will plow on through to victory. It is more likely that Creator stands a much better chance to pick up the pieces in deep stretch and land a sliver of the pie.
10th Selection # 4 MO TOM 20-1 LANERIE C AMOSS T
If there is one horse on Saturday who will have a legion of racing fans rooting for him based on the horrific trips he experienced on the road to the Kentucky Derby, it is Mo Tom.
As a 2-year-old Mo Tom showed steady improvement in all 4 starts, each in Kentucky at 3 different tracks. His last 2 starts in 2015 resulted in a stakes victory at Churchill Downs stretching out to a mile. Mo Tom concluded his juvenile campaign with a third place finish over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at 2 turns under the Twin Spires.
High percentage winning trainer Tom Amoss elected to take the Louisiana road to the Derby at the Fair Grounds with their 3 race series consisting first of the La Comte, which Mo Tom passed with flying colors. Despite hitting the gate at the break, he recovered to sustain a strong closing run to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths.
No one could envision what would occur in Mo Tom's next 2 starts. In the Risen Star, as his jockey Corey Lanerie was making a bold move along the rail in mid-stretch to loom a danger to blow on by the leaders, the hole quickly closed up, forcing Mo Tom to check sharply. He lost all momentum but showed enough fight to recover and make another run in the closing yards. But the door had already closed on his likely victory.
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Mo Tom would seek redemption 5 weeks later in the Louisiana Derby. As you would have expected with anyone who had observed his bad fortune during the stretch run of the Risen Star, the son of Uncle Mo was bet down to the 2-1 favorite. And once again, backers of Mo Tom would have to suffer through a second stretch debacle costing him another possible victory. This time the pain would last even longer. Once again Mo Tom was gathering a full head of steam, picking up horses one-byone from the back of the pack. Nearly at the same spot in mid-stretch as in the Risen Star, Mo Tom and Lanerie were forced to check sharply, only this time his traffic troubles would last for 1/16th of mile. He never even had a chance to fully recover and get himself back into stride to start a second run at the leaders. Mo Tom had to settle for fourth money, with his connections muttering in disgust 'what could have been'.
With the dust having cleared in the ensuing weeks and the connections of Mo Tom forgiving his rider for those 2 troubled trips, they are all hoping for a turn of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby. As one of the many deep closers in the field, it will be up to the Racing Gods to determine the fate of horses like Mo Tom.
If everything falls in place for Mo Tom and Lanerie, it now becomes an issue if he is good enough to win the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. I feel that a victory is probably not in the cards, even if there is not a straw in Mo Tom's path, which is unlikely. He is a one-run closer that is not very athletic and nimble enough to escape trouble very easily as we have observed and has distance limitations beyond 1 1/8 miles. It is my opinion that the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby featured the lesser quality 3 year olds. Mo Tom is not likely to win, but if everything falls his way, he could possibly hit the board.
11th Selection #10 WHITMORE 20-1 ESPINOZA V MOQUETT R
Whitmore is one of 5 horses in the Derby field who has won over the Churchill Downs main track. In his debut last November, the 3-year-old gelding broke slowly and then rushed up to chase fast fractions. He easily took command at the top of the stretch, drawing clear to a 7 1/4 length win at 15-1.
In his first 2 starts as a juvenile, Whitmore did not wear blinkers. Blinkers were added for his third start on Jan 16 cutting back to a sprint. The result was a decisive victory. What is interesting is in his next 3 starts back at 2 turns, Whitmore has not shown any early speed, quickly finding himself far back of the leaders. Was this by design, or simply a lack of interest by Whitmore in the early proceedings?
Since his trainer Ron Moquett is based in the midwest, it was logical that Whitmore's road to the Derby would go through Oaklawn Park. He would rally from far back to get second money in both the Southwest and Rebel, each run at 1 1/16 miles. In the Arkansas Derby, stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile, Whitmore and his rider Irad Ortiz were once again content to lag far off the early leaders after racing in tight between horses and checking soon after the start. The fractions set by the pacesetter were quick, resulting in a well spread out field of 12. Ortiz was able to get Whitmore to relax a couple paths off the rail on the backstretch. Approaching the far turn, Ortiz pushed on the gas and Whitmore responded instantly to begin his customary late run. Turning for home Whitmore was fanned out very wide while full of run. In mid-stretch, he ran out of gas and was unable to keep pace with winner Creator, who blew on by. Nearing the wire, Whitmore could not hold off Suddenbreakingnews, who had made the last move to get the place.
Whitmore clearly has talent, but he also can be his own worst enemy. He has developed traits which usually raise their ugly heads in a 20 horse field he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If you look at his trouble lines to the far right of his Past Performances, you will see notations in all 6 of his starts such as 'Broke slow, veered out in stretch', 'Pinched start', 'Middle moved', 'Steadied', 'Bobbled', 'Nothing left'. Whitmore will need everything to fall his way in the Derby and not a straw in his path when he begins his late run from the back of the pack. Even if this happens, he does not give me the impression of being able to sustain his run at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Whitmore's ceiling is an 'on the board' finish and nothing more.
12th Selection #17 MOR SPIRIT 12-1 STEVENS G BAFFERT B
When you see any horse entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Bob Baffert, it would be folly to dismiss his chances. Since 1996, Baffert Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a mind-boggling 4 times. He won back-to-back Derbies with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. 4 years later Baffert scored with War Emblem. Last year American Pharoah became the first American Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the twelve in history. In contrast to a Derby trainer like Todd Pletcher (1/43 with 29 runners finishing ninth or worse). Even in defeat, Baffert-trained Derby runners have hit the board 5 times. In the last 20 years', Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby entrants have either won or hit the board 9 times or 45 % of the time. Simply amazing.
Mor Spirit will be Bob Baffert's lone runner in this year's Kentucky Derby. In 7 starts, he has won 3 races including 2 stakes and 4 second place finishes. 5 of those races came at his home base at Santa Anita with 1 win at Los Alamitos. The only time he left southern California, Mor Spirit shipped to Kentucky where he ran a very good second in a Grade 2 stake as a 2-yearold at Churchill Downs.
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There is no denying that Mor Spirit has quality and is very consistent. At times he is a bit head strong early in his races, as he demonstrated when second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe. This characteristic was on display even in his workout April 26, when he blasted away under regular rider Gary Stevens to set fast fractions, with his first 3 furlongs run in 33.93 while racing in company. However, even when Mor Spirit has settled nicely in his races, when he begins his rally, he is one-paced. This was illustrated in all 3 of his victories and last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, when he finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Exagerrator over a sloppy track.
The key to his success in the Kentucky Derby will come down to Stevens being able to get him to relax early and time his move perfectly to avoid any trouble along the way. This could be a lot to ask in a 20 horse field stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. If it was any other trainer than Bob Baffert calling the shots, I would consider Mor Spirit as one of several in this field who can hit the board but not win. With Gary Stevens riding, Baffert's tremendous record in the Kentucky Derby and a horse who will get first run on the deep closer's, Mor Spirit has to be respected.
13th Selection # 9 DESTIN 15-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby with two lightly raced and well-bred colts who both appear on the improve. Destin and Outwork faced off against one another on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Destin prevailed over his barn-mate by one length. His determined victory would serve as his final Derby prep. Destin has been trained up to the Derby off a 56-day layoff after having run 4 straight races about a month apart. The break was well deserved, especially for a 3year-old who has made forward moves in his last 3 starts with the addition of blinkers.
Destin is a grey son of the very good distance producing sire Giant's Causeway, out of a dam who won 4 route races totaling $847,000 in earnings, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. He is a full brother to $1-million-dollar earner Creative Cause, winner of 4 distance races, including the Norfolk and Best Pal as a 2-year-old and the San Felipe as a 3-year old. Creative Cause also placed in the Santa Anita Derby, skipped the Kentucky Derby and then went on to run third in the Preakness. Despite having not run further than 1 1/16 miles, Destin clearly has the pedigree to perform well at 1 1/4 miles. He has very good tactical speed to position himself in good striking position entering the backstretch, which minimizes the chances of his rider navigating through traffic and get first run on the deep closers. The danger is if the pace is quick and he is too close to it. The ability to get Destin to relax the first mile is imperative, so he has enough punch in the stretch.
Several of his rivals exit final prep races in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. All five races were run at 1 1/8 miles. Only the Florida Derby was run 36 days out from the Kentucky Derby. The other four were 28 days out. Destin must overcome his longer layoff and the added distance over a new racing surface toting more weight than he has ever carried before. In Destin's favor is that the route to the Kentucky Derby through Tampa Bay Downs has been fruitful in recent years. Todd Pletcher has started a lot of horses in the 'Run for the Roses'. Super Saver is Pletcher's only Kentucky Derby winner, who had his final prep race in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing third. Street Sense parlayed a win in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man ran third at huge odds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby. The reason for such success is that the racing surface at Tampa is deep and tiring, which provides horses plenty of 'bottom' and stamina when they ship to other tracks which are harder and quicker racing surfaces. Trainers and owners love to race there during the winter months, not for the paltry purses they offer, but for their next stop, where Tampa shippers more than make up for lost income.
This year's Kentucky Derby has more contenders than pretenders. Several Derby starters do their best running from far off the pace, which requires a perfectly timed ride and a traffic free trip to have any chance of winning. Destin is clearly on the contender side of the ledger. His tactical speed and top rider Javier Castellano aboard, will help Destin get first run on the closers and a better chance to avoid trouble. Despite the positives, there comes some negatives, such as his layoff and Todd Pletcher's dismal record with his Kentucky Derby starters.
14th Selection #18 MAJESTO 30-1 JARAMILLO E DELGADO G
This $300,000 yearling purchase was cut out to be a quality runner and bred to relish a distance of ground the day he was conceived. He is a half-brother to Overanalyze, winner of the 2012 Remsen as a 2-year-old and the Arkansas Derby at 3.
It took 5 starts for Majesto to finally break his maiden, but that confidence boost victory helped propel him to a career best performance in the Florida Derby. Even though Majesto was no threat to Nyquist, he sustained a strong rally to get the place money at 21-1. He did benefit by getting a beautiful ground saving trip by top rider Castellano, while racing on the best part of the track.
Majesto loses Castellano in the Derby and it's unlikely he will get the same dream inside trip. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss his chances to nibble at a piece of the purse at huge odds. Majesto has yet to reach his ceiling and clearly the 'light bulb' went off in his maiden win. He is a not a dead stone closer as many in the field are, yet he won't race close to the early leaders entering the backstretch. Majesto is the type of horse who can just clunk along when others are tiring. You know he will handle the Derby distance well. If you watched his gallop out past the wire in the Florida Derby, you could see that there was plenty left in the tank.
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15th Selection #20 DANZING CANDY 15-1 SMITH M SISE, JR. C
If you want to predict who the pacesetter will be in this year's Kentucky Derby, you need to look no further than Danzing Candy. With the exception of his debut last November at Del Mar when he broke awkwardly, quickly finding himself last of twelve runners and seventh after the first call, in 4 subsequent starts Danzing Candy has not been headed after the first quarter mile. In each race, the distances got longer, which only made it easier for Danzing Candy to open up bigger margins between himself and the rest of the field after a half mile had been run. In 3 of those races, including the San Felipe, Danzing Candy would go wire-to-wire.
His toughest test to date came last time out in the Santa Anita Derby where his stamina would be tested for the first time at 1 1/8 miles, as well as his ability to handle a sloppy track, conditions he had neither raced on nor in all likelihood trained over.
Danzing Candy's fate in the Santa Anita Derby was sealed after running four furlongs in a blistering :45 1/5. Mike Smith was not able to control his runaway speed with six furlongs in 1:10 flat. At that point Exaggerator just swooped on by a very tired horse. Smith did not abuse Danzing Candy as he steadily dropped back through the stretch.
Danzing Candy will not have to run over sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby which is a good thing. The bad news is that he will probably have to go faster than par for the first 6 furlongs of the race, which has been run in 1:11 (2003-2015). He will likely face intense pressure on the far turn, resulting in his inability to withstand the onslaught of horses closing from behind. Danzing Candy does not have the breeding, nor does he give me the impression that he is suited to 1 1/4 miles the first Saturday in May.
16th Selection #16 SHAGAF 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C
Shagaf makes his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby after being soundly defeated April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Wood would be the fourth straight time that he would be sent off as the post time favorite following 3 impressive victories, twice in New York and his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park.
It was not surprising that Shagaf's connections would begin his career going a mile. From all this year's Kentucky Derby entrants, Shagaf is one the best bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam Muhaaware is a half-sister to Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles. The previous year, Eldaafer won the Brooklyn BC Handicap at the same distance at Belmont Park. There are several other long-winded and quality performers throughout the family. Ironically, Eldaafar's sire was A. P. Indy, the same sire as Shagaf's father Benardini, both who won prestigious Grade 1 stakes going a distance of ground.
Shagaf could not have been more impressive winning his first start by 6 lengths. He shipped to Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut at the same 2-turn mile. Similar to his debut win, Shagaf stalked early and drew clear at the top of the stretch, on his way to a decisive victory. Trainer Chad Brown shipped him back north for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and stretched Shagaf out to 2-turns for the first time on the inner dirt track. He had to work harder to get the win, but did so with a perfect ride and trip.
His final Derby prep would come 35 days later in the Wood Memorial. Shagaf would be facing some new shooters, but more importantly a sealed sloppy track for the first time while stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile and picking up 7 Lbs. After racing up close to the leaders in the early stages of each of his prior 3 starts, Shagaf and jockey Irad Ortiz, who had ridden him each time, found themselves towards the rear of the field, 11 lengths back into the clubhouse turn. Shagaf made up ground to loom dangerously for a brief moment at the top of the stretch, but flattened out when it counted.
One might say that the muddy surface, which he clearly did not like, compromised his chances. But Shagaf is bred well to handle wet tracks and he got quick fractions to close into. I feel that the Wood Memorial probably exposed him as a 3-year-old who does not yet possess the quality of several others in the Kentucky Derby field. Top rider Irad Ortiz probably feels the same way. Ortiz has elected to jump off Shagaf in favor of another Chad Brown entrant My Man Sam in the Kentucky Derby, who he had ridden in his first 3 starts. Ortiz chose instead to ride Shagaf in the Wood, rather than My Man Same the same day at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. This is a jockey switch, which means something. Joel Rosario, who had been sidelined because of an injury and but resumed riding 1 week ago, will have the mount aboard Shagaf in the Derby.
Expect Shagaf to return to stalking tactics with a clean break. Rosario will go after front running Danzig Candy on the far turn, but will have to work hard to try to go by. This middle move is likely to take its toll on Shagaf in the stretch.
17th Selection # 1 TROJAN NATION 50-1 GRYDER A GALLAGHER P
Obviously the connections of this 3-year-old son of Street Cry knew something more than I did and everyone else looking over his past performances when he arrived at Aqueduct from Santa Anita for the Wood Memorial. If I am grasping at straws, you could say that his bullet 5f workout, the best of 59, just 6 days before the Wood, was a tip off to them that a huge form reversal was upcoming. He had never worked that fast in the past. Even so, there was absolutely no way you could consider Trojan Nation a contender, even in an 8 horse field. He was winless in 5 starts and had never even run second. In 3 races Trojan Nation had run third, finishing 1 3/4, 3 3/4 and 9 lengths back of the winner, all in Maiden Special Weight races.
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Would anyone who owned a horse with his resume go to the expense of flying him across country? I really doubt it, but trainer Patrick Gallagher and Trojan Nation's owners had the courage to do it. For their confidence in this colt, they fell a head short of one of the greatest upsets 'on the road to the Kentucky Derby'. One more jump and Trojan Nation would have lit up the board to the tune of 81-1 or a mutual payoff of $165.00 for every $2.00 wagered. Even though he did not win, Trojan Nation earned enough qualifying points to earn a spot in the Derby field.
How could this monumental turnaround in fortunes occur? 3 factors obviously came into play and each are intertwined. This was the first time Trojan Nation had raced over a wet track listed as 'muddy'. He obviously handled the footing very well. He was allowed to drop back into another zip code by his New York based rider Aaron Gryder. As a result of the fast pace, Trojan Nation settled in last place, 17 lengths back of the leaders while taken to the rail to save valuable ground. With the ensuing speed duel developing around the far turn, and horses making middle moves forcing some to suffer wide trips, Gryder was content to let each horse do the dirty work and just ride the fence hoping to pick off tired horses in the stretch. The tactics nearly worked out, but unfortunately the last horse standing was the winner Outwork, who amazingly held on as well as he did setting a pressured fast pace from start to finish of the 1 1/8-mile race. Trojan Nation even experienced some trouble when in tight and brushed inside the 1/8th pole.
Going forward into the Kentucky Derby, what can we expect from Trojan Nation back on a dry surface? A wet track can truly be an equalizer as some horses handle the going fine and others clearly prefer dry footing. It is very difficult for me to endorse a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. Like many others in the Derby, Trojan Nation is a deep closer who will need all the breaks to fall his way. I'm still not convinced, off a single huge effort, that Trojan Nation has developed into a horse who is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, or even hitting the board.
18th Selection # 8 LANI 30-1 TAKE Y MATSUNAGA M
It is difficult to properly assess the quality of competition Lani faced and defeated in Japan and last time out when he was victorious in the U A E Derby at Meydon on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Equally difficult and just as important are the effects of all the frequent flyer miles he has accumulated traveling from Japan to Dubai and then to the US in less than 2 months.
Lani is a monster of a colt in terms of size, so I am presuming the travel is not an issue. The 3-year-old grey is one of the bestbred runners in the field. Lani was sired by Tapit, the top stallion in the US, out of a dam who won $3.5 million. He is a halfbrother to Amour Biller, winner of $1.5 million in Japan and victor of 5 stakes races, all going a distance of ground.
Lani concluded his juvenile campaign with 2 straight wins in Japan for top Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who I would favorably compare to Chad Brown in the US. Both are young horsemen on the brink of stardom. Even in those 2 victories, as well as in each of his 3 prior starts, Lani showed a lack of interest early, as if he was just enjoying goofing around a bit until set down by his rider. Once again in the U A E Derby, Lani broke awkwardly and took his time to settle into his stride which on camera is not very fluid, but powerful, hitting the ground very hard. He quickly made a huge brush to go from last to second while racing well out on the track. In the stretch, Lani dropped back a bit as if beaten, but he found another gear, grinding down the leaders and out finishing the betting favorite Polar River in the shadow of the wire.
Bad habits raise their ugly head in a twenty horse Kentucky Derby field amidst the massive Churchill Downs crowd. Lani has raced in field sizes up to 16 horses twice, so that is not the concern. The issues are his lethargic behavior in the early part of his races and the traffic he is likely to encounter when he does make his move. Even though Lani's rider Take has experience in the US, the Derby is a whole different ball game. I have watched Lani move over the Churchill dirt surface in morning works and long distance gallops since arriving and do not like what I am seeing. Lani pounds the ground too hard and he just doesn't seem very comfortable over it. There are too many obstacles Lani must overcome for me to consider him a contender.
19th Selection # 7 OSCAR NOMINATED 50-1 LEPAROUX J MAKER M
Owner Ken Ramsey, who has helped carry the torch for enthusiasm and sportsmanship in the current climate of the game, struck some gold when he claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 last October at Belmont. Ramsey could not pass up a grass bred distance horse sired by his very own mainstay and prolific sire Kitten's Joy, who was an outstanding race horse in his own right, but has been the anchor for his breeding business and a yearly annuity.
Once Oscar Nominated was dropped in for the tag, Ramsey did not hesitate to lay down the cash. His astute purchase is reaping him huge dividends. If the colt can pull off a monster upset victory in the Kentucky Derby, Oscar Nominated would go down as the greatest claim since Stymie, who was purchased for $1500 by the legendary trainer Hirsch Jacobs in 1943. Stymie went on to win 35 races for Jacob's, including 20 stakes victories, many graded and nearly $1 million in earnings.
In 4 starts for Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, Oscar Nominated has run second twice, beaten a head and a neck, and then won his last 2 races, capped off by the neck victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on April 2. The obstacle that Oscar
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Nominated will have to overcome, and it cannot be minimized in any way, is that in 7 starts, 6 have been run on turf and last time out over Polytrack.
5 years ago Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with a similar profile. He had never run on dirt prior to the Derby. That year, I ended up making Animal Kingdom my top selection when he upset the field at 25-1 in a very similar wide open affair. There is a significant difference this year. I had discovered through reliable sources, and later confirmed, that Animal Kingdom had worked very well on dirt training in preparation for his career debut. Even though he had run several races before making his first start on dirt, the fact that he handled it very well and hardly anyone knew it, was the main reason I decided to take a chance selecting him. In the case of Oscar Nominated, he has worked over dirt several times. If you go back to his workouts in February and March in the Past Performances, you can even see 4 listed workouts on dirt at the Fair Grounds. They are respectable, but they also don't provide you any strong indicators that dirt will be a surface he will feel at home over. This has also been confirmed in his works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.
Oscar Nominated is clearly improving and his versatile running style is his greatest asset. But the field he will be facing Saturday is a far different animal to the much weaker competition he has been meeting on his upward trajectory. Add in the surface switch to dirt for the first time and what you have is a horse that is difficult to consider a Kentucky Derby winner or for that matter hitting the board. Were he to win, Oscar Nominated, would not only win a piece of racing's version of Hollywood's Oscar, but possibly position himself right for a spot next to Stymie in Racing's Hall of Fame on Union Avenue directly across the street from Saratoga Race Course.
20th Selection #12 TOM'S READY 30-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B STEWART D
Tom's Ready is one of the most experienced horses in the Kentucky Derby field with 9 starts. Only Fellowship has run more races with 11 and Exaggerator next in line with the same 9 career outings. He will be huge odds in the Derby and deservedly so.
Tom's Ready lone victory was his maiden win at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. It was the only time he raced on the lead from the start going wire-to-wire setting a moderate pace while adding blinkers for the first time. He has started 6 times since then, with 4 second place finishes.
Trainer Dallas Stewart took the Louisiana route to the Derby with Tom's Ready with starts in the Le Comte, Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In 2 of those stakes, he rallied for second, but was no threat to Mo Tom and Gun Runner, 2 rivals he will be facing again Saturday. Tom's Ready has a multitude of trouble lines in his Past Performances, which does not bode well for him in a 20 horse field. It is highly unlikely to imagine that Tom's Ready's first win going 2 turns will come in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles. To think he will even hit the board is a stretch.
Wagering Strategy
* Win & Place bet on (6) MY MAN SAM
* Exacta box (2) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (6) MY MAN SAM, (13) NYQUIST, (14) MOHAYMEN & (19) BRODY'S CALL = $40 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box 6-13-14-19 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Trifecta 6-13-14-19 over 2-6-13-14-19 over 2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-13-14-15-17-18-19-20 = $104 for a $0.50 wager
Pace Scenario With DANZING CANDY breaking from post 20, Mike Smith should have no trouble getting to the front with an alert break. He is simply quicker early than any other horse in the Derby field. The horses breaking from posts 1-2-3-4, TROJAN NATION, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, CREATOR and MO TOM have no early speed and figure to drop well back of the leaders early on. GUN RUNNER, DESTIN, NYQUIST, MOHAYMEN, OUTWORK, TOM'S READY, SHAGAF , EXAGGERATOR and MOR SPIRIT will spread out behind the pacesetter, some taking up the chase, but all within the top 10 positions entering the backstretch. MY MAN SAM, OSCAR NOMINATED, LANI, WHITMORE, MAJESTO and BRODY'S CALL are the others who are expected to do their running from the back of the pack.
The fractions set by DANZING CANDY will be honest with several horses making middle moves, which will result in the pace heating up around the far turn. I cannot recall a Kentucky Derby in recent memory that has so many deep closers who look very similar on paper and ability. A good trip or a bad one will spell the difference in the outcome of many of these runners. Obviously NYQUIST has the best credentials, but if he does not get the distance and the right set up as the 3-1 morning-line favorite, you can expect big prices and generous payoffs if he does not win.
M/L Jockey Trainer 1st Selection # 6 MY MAN SAM 20-1 ORTIZ, JR. I BROWN C
Along with Outwork and Shagaf, My Man Sam is the third horse in the Kentucky Derby field that has the least racing experience with just 4 starts. His inexperience should not be held against this steadily improving 3-year-old conditioned by top horseman Chad Brown.
Draw a line through his debut when a troubled fifth sprinting on the Aqueduct inner dirt track in December. 6 furlongs is far too short for him. It was evident My Man Sam wanted distance when he exploded to an 8 length maiden win stretching out to 2 turns for the first time in his 3-year-old debut. On March 6, My Man Sam was bet down to the 7-5 favorite, despite facing stakes winner Matt King Coal, who was the lone front runner in the field, but who was also returning from a layoff. As expected Matt King Coal took command right from the start and held on gamely, with My Man Sam cutting into his lead with every stride. Time had run out for him to overhaul the front runner on a track which played kind to speed.
My Man Sam had shown enough ability to search for the right Grade 1 stake to try to accumulate enough points to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby. Rather than keeping him in New York for the Wood Memorial where Chad Brown had the favorite with Shagaf, Brown shipped his charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes. Little did the connections know until entries were drawn that a full field of 14 horses would break from the gate, with My Man Sam drawing post 14.
When I handicapped the race, there was really no hesitation on my part to make him my top selection, even knowing that his post was going to be very difficult for him to overcome. If My Man Sam had shown an affinity to race on or near the lead or even rate in mid pack, the outside draw would have certainly resulted in a very wide trip and certain defeat. The fact that he is a deep closer, gave jockey Julian Leparoux no choice but to take My Man Sam back to the rear of the field and ease his way to the inside. From that vantage point, racing a dozen lengths off the leaders, he could bide his time as the race developed in front of him and then ask My Man Sam to begin his rally on the far turn. This colt prefers to race outside of horses, so the danger from falling so far back and having to pass 13 horses, was likely to force Leparoux to take the overland route. My Man Sam, under a full head of stream, was fanned out towards the middle of the track turning for home. He had to find another gear once straightened out for the stretch run. Once he did, My Man Sam was picking up horses one-by-one. In the end, he had too much ground to make up and too little time to run down winner Brody's Cause who got the jump on him. In the end, it was post 14 that was the main culprit for his defeat. The fact that My Man Sam could even run second with so much ground loss, proved to everyone watching his performance that he was more than worthy of consideration as one of the major contenders in the Run for the Roses.
The question going forward is can My Man Sam continue to improve making only his fifth career start after having run nearly once a month since December. That is quite a bit of racing over a relatively short period of time. Like many others in the field, My Man Sam has no early speed and will drop well back off the early leaders into the clubhouse turn. He is not quite as slow in the early going as several others in the Derby field who I would label deep stone cold closers. I can see at least 5 other horses who could be lagging farther behind him.
My Man Sam is more a grinder than a horse with cat-like acceleration. My concern is that he will have to sustain too long a run, which could take the punch out of him in the late stages of the race. In his favor is that Irad Ortiz will be back aboard. Ortiz is one of racing's bright young jockeys, who has a keen sense of timing. Ortiz will have to utilize every ounce of his talent to time his move just perfectly and avoid trouble in the midst of his late run. It is certain that Chad Brown will have My Man Sam as good as hands can make him. If everything falls just in place and the stars are aligned for his connections on Saturday, My Man Sam can win the Kentucky Derby at a generous price.
My Man Sam drew post 6 which is ideal for him, unlike post 14 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like many others in this field, he will have to work out a trip, but I have complete faith in Irad Ortiz Jr. that he will get My Man Sam to settle and avoid trouble and too
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wide a trip. I picked My Man Sam to win the Blue Grass without Irad aboard. Now one of my favorite riders is back in the saddle. At 20-1 on the morning-line, My Man Sam now becomes my top pick. Since I can see either of my top 4 selections winning, this year's Kentucky Derby becomes a 'price play' for the Wizard. At those generous odds which I expect My Man Sam to be, I'll take my shot for a generous payoff and hold my breath for a trouble free journey.
2nd Selection #19 BRODY'S CAUSE 12-1 SAEZ L ROMANS D
The son of Giant's Causeway is the only horse entered in the Derby field who can say he is 'Kentucky's' hometown boy. There are many in the field who have been bred in the 'Blue Grass' state. Not only was Brody's Cause born here, but his trainer Dale Roman has been a fixture on the Churchill Downs backstretch since taking out his trainer's license in 1984. Born in Louisville and a son of a former trainer, Roman's saddled his first winner at Turfway Park in Florence Kentucky three year later. Romans has saddled many Grade 1 stakes winners since, including three Breeders' cup victories, winning the 2005 Dubai World Cup with Roses In May and the 2011 Preakness with Shackleford. Other notable horses trained by Roman's are Kitten's Joy, Paddy's O'Prado, Little Mike and who could forget Keen Ice who he predicted would upset American Pharoah in last year's Travers Stakes at 16-1 odds and he did just that. The highlight of Dale Roman's career came in 2012 when he was the recipient of the Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer. But all these accomplishments would pale in comparison to winning the one race which has eluded him, the Kentucky Derby. Since 2006, Romans has started six horses in the Derby. The closest he has come are a pair of third place finishes with Paddy O'Prado in 2010 and Dullahan in 2012. This year Dale Romans, along with successful owner Albaugh Family Stable (owner of Paddy O'Prado) arrive at the big dance with Brody's Cause, who completes the Kentucky connection.
Brody's Cause began his career on turf at Ellis Park located in Henderson Kentucky. He was defeated by 25 lengths that day and has never seen the grass again... except for eating it. Brody's Cause made a huge turnaround when placed on dirt for the first time 41 days later at a 1 turn mile at Churchill Downs to upset a strong maiden field at 33-1. He proved that win was no fluke by stepping up sharply in class into the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October to score again, this time at 11-1. In both races, Brody's Cause picked off rivals one by one from the back of the pack.
Brody's Cause had earned the chance to conclude his 2-year-old campaign with a victory and Eclipse Award as the top 2-yearold in the country in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. Churchill Down leading rider Corey Lanerie, who had been aboard for the first time in the Breeders' Futurity victory, was once again content to let Brody's Cause lag far off the early leaders. He made up ground at every call to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. If the race had been run at 1 1/8 miles, a 1/16th of a mile longer, Brody's Cause would probably have won. Dale Roman's and anyone who observed Brody's Call strong finish, knew that Roman's had a quality 2-year-old, soon to be 3, on the Kentucky Derby trail.
Brody's Cause first race back from his Breeders Cup loss would be the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. He would be returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff and racing outside of Kentucky for the first time. Bet down to the favorite at 2-1 for the first time in his career, Brody's Cause was bumped soon after the start. He took up his usual position at the back of the pack. At the half mile pole, he was 12 lengths back of the leader. He never picked up a hoof, finishing 12 lengths back at the wire, beating only 2 horses, in what was beyond a disappointing performance. What had possibly gone wrong for Brody's Cause to finish a well beaten seventh?
Whether it was not handling the quirky Tampa Bay surface, Florida heat and humidity, the lengthy layoff or simply an 'off day', no one knew for certain. Even Romans and his longtime companion Tammy Fox, a former jockey and for several years Romans main exercise rider and integral part of his successful stable, had no answers to Brody's Cause not showing up that afternoon at Tampa.
It was time to put that race behind them and seek redemption four weeks later back in the friendly confines of the state of Kentucky at Keeneland race-course. Brody's Cause would have to show big improvement and at the very least hit the board, to provide his connections with the confidence he was worthy of a start in the Kentucky Derby. They only had to wait 1:50 1/5 seconds to have their answer. Brody's Cause was back to himself with a decisive 1 3/4 length victory against 13 rivals. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time, Brody's Cause rallied from far back to split horses in mid-stretch and win with plenty left in the tank. Luis Saez, who was aboard for the first time, asked Brody's Call to begin making his move midway on the far turn. Knifing his way between horses and then easing outside and splitting rivals again in mid-stretch to take the lead, Saez still had enough left to fend off the late run of My Man Sam and Cherry Wine. Brody's Call's victory, which was a huge rebound from his Tampa debacle, should not be underestimated. What's so impressive is that he could sustain such a long rally, while navigating his way through traffic, and still prevail.
Brody's Call enters the Kentucky Derby with renewed confidence and must be considered a major player. Dale Romans is a master at pointing a horse to a major race and winning at generous odds. Brody's Cause will have to take another step forward to win the Derby, but what I expect to see on Saturday is a career best performance stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. However, like many others in this field who are deep closer's, it will come down to a trouble free trip and a well-timed ride. If both happen, Brody's Cause is on a short list of those likeliest to succeed closing from far back.
When posts were drawn, Brody's Call drew 19. With the pacesetter breaking in post 20, it comes down to what type of trip jockey Luis Saez can work out. He will have to take back as was expected, but now Saez must try not to lose too much ground as he
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attempts to move closer inside to avoid a very wide journey. If Brody's Call had drawn a better post, he would have been my top selection. The most difficult thing for me in races like the Kentucky Derby with 20 horses, when I like a horse that I planned on putting on top who does not get any number of post positions which I was looking for, is having to call a late audible. In this case, I must call the audible.
3rd Selection #13 NYQUIST 3-1 GUTIERREZ M O'NEILL D
Nyquist brings an unblemished record, 7 starts with 7 wins and $3.2 million in earnings, into the Kentucky Derby as the betting favorite. He has won at 5 different distances at 4 different races tracks. Nyquist has won on the lead, stalking up close and even closing from well back of the leaders, as he did in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, after being bumped hard at the start. That victory resulted in his fifth straight victory, earning him an Eclipse Award and the role as the future book favorite for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Can history repeat itself for the trio of owner Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Mario Gutierrez? All three orchestrated the 15-1 upset victory by I'll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
Unlike I'll Have Another, whose final Derby prep came in the Santa Anita Derby, Nyquist shipped across country to contest the Florida Derby as his final tune up. The decision was based on the $1-million-dollar bonus his owner would receive as a result of being sold at a 2-year-old sale in Florida.
Nyquist would face off with Mohaymen, who was also undefeated in 5 starts. Mohaymen held a big 'home court' edge. He had spent the winter in south Florida and had 2 stakes wins to his credit at Gulfstream Park as a 3-year-old. Mohaymen had also proven himself at the Florida Derby distance, winning the Remson at Aqueduct in his final start at 2. For these reasons, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5 with Nyquist at 6-5. The odds of the other 8 runners ranged from the third choice going off at 15-1 to the longest price in the field at 180-1. This unusual betting variance in the Florida Derby tells an interesting tale. The obvious is that handicappers and the betting public clearly felt it was a 2 horse race, which it clearly looked like on paper. What the odds also told you was that the opposition was simply overmatched on all handicapping principles. Some were considered so outclassed, that you wondered if they could even win an entry-level Allowance race. One horse was still a maiden. 6 others had only a maiden win to their credit. Fellowship, who was making his 11th start, had won 2 races, a win in his debut at 4 1/2 furlongs and a win around 2-turns last October. To put it mildly, other than Mohaymen and Nyquist, this was one bad Florida Derby field!
As soon as the gate opened for the Florida Derby, you knew right away that Gutierrez was going to be aggressive and ride Nyquist like he was the best horse in the race. The tactics were simple, 'catch me if you can'. It was no free pass for Nyquist on the front end, except that the 2 horses who put pressure on him were the 124-1 maiden and a 136-1 recent maiden claiming winner for a $50,000 tag. Fighting those 2 rivals off to await the challenge of Mohaymen would set the stage for a stretch battle which never materialized. Sometimes there are outcomes which are simply 'head scratchers'. We all knew where Nyquist was positioned turning for home. Now our sights were set squarely on Mohaymen to await his attack. Just as quickly as he began to make his move while racing wide turning for home, it only took a few more strides to realize that Mohaymen would come up empty. He flattened out to finish a well beaten fourth, an inexplicable 8 1/4 lengths back of the Nyquist. Nyquist showed up to the dance. Mohaymen declined the invitation when it was time to respond.
What did the outcome of the Florida Derby tell us? It told us Nyquist is a very good horse and even a deserving favorite, who will be over bet because of his credentials. He defeated an awful field in a race where something had to be amiss with the favorite to have run so poorly. The main track had plenty of moisture and was labeled 'good' from the rains which fell on and off throughout the day. The track had been sealed and then the seal was removed for the Florida Derby after 3 previous stakes races which were run on grass. From the last dirt race run at 4:34 PM, to the start of the Florida Derby which went off at 6:57 PM, a span of 2 hours and 23 minutes, a lot changed with the dirt surface, which had a hand in the final outcome. It was a quirky track that that some horses handled and others did not.
When I look closely at Nyquist's lifetime past performances, I see a horse who faced a west coast based horse named Swipe in 4 of his 5 starts as a 2-year-old. Swipe ran second each time. Swipe returned in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in his 3year-old debut April 16 as the co-favorite and was awful. Nyquist was impressive winning the BC Juvenile, but he did have a relatively trouble free trip. In the San Vincente, which was his first start at 3, he beat a quality horse in Exaggerator as the 1-5 favorite breaking from the rail against only 4 rivals.
For all Nyquist's conquests and the fact that he is battled hardened and the will to win, I still cannot pick him as my top selection. Many people will point out that his pedigree is not suited to 1 1/4 miles. I put little credence in that statement because he does have enough stamina influence on his dam side, and speed and middle distance from his sire Uncle Mo. The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race in that 20 horses will all be running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their career and may never see that distance again. Nyquist is a very good horse and in the end could develop into a great horse. Nevertheless, as the clear cut betting favorite and a horse who certainly has all the credentials to win the Kentucky Derby, I have enough reasons not to choose him as my top selection. He will be included in many of my exacta and trifecta wagers.
4th Selection #14 MOHAYMEN 10-1 ALVARADO J MCLAUGHLIN K
Mohaymen took his unblemished record of 5 wins in 5 starts into the Florida Derby. 3 of those victories came as a 2-year-old, including a win in the Remsen at Aqueduct to conclude his juvenile campaign. With Mohaymen on the sidelines, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist was voted 2-year-old horse of the year. A legitimate argument could be made over which horse was the best juvenile colt. If you believed that Mohaymen was the better of the two, the debate would be settled at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby where these two undefeated 3-year-olds would face off in what looked on paper to be a 2 horse race.
In the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was sent off at 4-5, with Nyquist at 6-5. The rest of the field was 15-1 and higher. What was billed as a "match race" ended up nothing of the sort. Nyquist proved much the best with a decisive win. Mohaymen could not have been any more disappointing, finishing a well beaten fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind the winner. The result of the Florida Derby will now have a huge impact on the odds on these two runners when they meet up for part two of their encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If Mohaymen had won the Florida Derby, he would no doubt be the 'clear cut' betting favorite in the Run for the Roses at around 7-2. Nyquist would be in the vicinity of 8-1. A switch in roles and closing odds between these two now changes, with favorite Nyquist going off in the vicinity of 4-1.
Handicappers and the betting public have short memories. Many times too much emphasis is placed on a winning or losing effort. In Mohaymen's case losing by such a lengthy margin and even being out finished by two long shots, who on paper had no right at all to finish in front of him, makes you have to come up with some very sound reasons to draw a line threw his race. After thinking about it long and hard, I am doing just that.
First and foremost, Mohaymen ran well enough in his 5 previous starts to distinguish himself as a top class 3-year-old, especially when compared to many on the Derby trail who are nothing more than good horses with much to prove. In the Florida Derby Mohaymen was asked to run over a very 'quirky' wet track for the first time in his career. He never seemed comfortable over the footing. Mohaymen raced wide throughout on the part of the track which appeared more tiring than the inside paths. He was unable to get any traction to sustain a move he began making approaching the stretch, but then flattened out from the 3/16th pole to the wire. It was also a hot and humid day with a big crowd. Perhaps something was amiss that would only be discovered after he was walked back to the barn and cooled out.
Finding legitimate excuses to discount a race is only one piece of the puzzle. The main piece is what has developed in the days following the race as a horse like Mohaymen prepares for his date with destiny. You look for clues like insightful comments by the connections and, most importantly, how the horse trains leading up to the race. When Mohaymen ran in the Florida Derby, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was in a rare bad slump. One week earlier, he had fired blanks with all his starters at Meydan, in the Dubai World Cup races. His prized runner, Frosted, from whom he expected big things, came up totally empty. We all have our bad runs and good runs. It's a fact of life and racing is no exception. McLaughlin is a super horseman and time heals all ills. He has been at Churchill supervising the training of Mohaymen since he arrived in mid-April. He wants no stone unturned in his preparation. You want to see your Derby horse work well over the surface. Mohaymen has done just that, working brilliantly under the Twin Spires. McLaughlin has been 'fine tuning' a little bit with the shoeing, adding glue on shoes which seems to improve a lot of horses.
I expect a vastly improved performance by Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby. He is bred on both his sire and dam side to adapt well to 1 1/4 miles. His best asset is his tactical speed, which will allow jockey 'Junior' Alvarado to settle him in perfect striking position early on and get first run on both the mid pack runners and the deep closer's. Mohaymen has been the favorite in all 6 starts at odds as low as 2-5, but never higher than 9-5, which was in his career debut. In the Kentucky Derby you will be generously rewarded at a price you would never dream of getting before the Florida Derby and possibly never again if Mohaymen redeems himself on Saturday.
Mohaymen drew post 14 which is ideal for his stalking running style. 'Junior' Alvarado should be able to work out a good trip without much ground loss. Now it's up to Mohaymen to show that his last race was an aberration and he is up to the task winning at 1 1/4 miles.
5th Selection # 2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1 QUINONEZ L VON HEMEL D
This 3-year-old gelding is a mirror image of several deep closers in this year's Kentucky Derby field. Like those horses, Suddenbreakingnews has been a gem of consistency, winning 3 races, twice in stakes and placed 4 times in 8 career starts. His lone off the board finish was when he ran 5th as the 5-2 favorite breaking from post 14. Only once has he shown any early speed and that was in his maiden win setting a pressured moderate pace going a mile at Remington Park. It's very unusual to see a horse show speed in just 1 race, but in every other start flounder towards the back of the pack before unleashing a late rally.
Mid-west based and longtime horseman Donnie Von Hemel, as expected, took the Arkansas route with Sunddenbreakingnews. To illustrate how far back he is positioned after the first 1/2 mile, just look at the number of lengths he lags behind the leader in
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his last 3 starts. In the Southwest he was last of 14 runners, 12 lengths back. In the Rebel he was in 13th place, 10 lengths back and in the Arkansas Derby he raced in 9th position, also 10 lengths back of the pacesetter.
Over a 'good' track in the Southwest, Suddenbreakingnews rallied in the stretch like he was shot from a cannon to win by 2 3/4 lengths. Then came the Rebel, his only off the board finish. Last time out in the Arkansas Derby, his regular rider Luis Quinonez made the last move, swinging out widest into the stretch. He rallied to get the place money, while set up perfectly by the fast fractions, collapsing speed and a perfectly timed ride.
There is no reason to expect that Suddenbreakingnews will not be positioned towards the back of the pack entering the backstretch in the Kentucky Derby, some 15-20 lengths off the early leaders. He has the benefit of a rider who knows him well, having ridden the 3-year-old in all 8 starts. Like the other deep closers in the field, any success he will have will be directly correlated to the amount of trouble he can avoid. He should get the right pace set up to close into, so the question then becomes if he does have a trouble free trip, is he good enough to win.
Suddenbreakingnews is bred to on both his sire and dam side to have no trouble handling the Derby distance. Even though he has only raced at Oaklawn and at Remington, switching to Churchill should not be an issue. Von Homel has trained over 70 stakes winners in his career with Evansville Slew, Custer, Leave a Legacy, Explosive Girl and Bien Nicole among his notable stars. Even though Suddenbreakingnews has been successful over a dry track, I feel he may be better racing on a wet surface. I would not be shocked if he won the Derby at big odds, especially how good he has been training at Churchill Downs. It is more likely Suddenbreakingnews ceiling is an 'on the board finish' if everything falls just right for horse and rider. This is a huge bomb who must be included in some of your wagers.
6th Selection # 5 GUN RUNNER 10-1 GEROUX F ASMUSSEN S
With the lone exception of a determined fourth place finish in his lone start over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at Churchill last November, Gun Runner is undefeated in 4 starts over a dry surface. He broke his maiden going a 1-turn mile at Churchill in his career debut. The fact that Gun Runner has run well over the track is a feather in his cap.
Trainer Steve Asmussen took the Louisiana route to the Kentucky Derby with Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride was a game winner in the Grade 2 Risen Star in his 3-year old debut off an 84-day layoff. 35 days later Gun Runner scored a decisive victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. In both those races, he was ridden by Florent Geroux, who will be back aboard for the Derby.
I have mixed feeling concerning Gun Runner's ability to win the Kentucky Derby. In his favor is his versatility. In a race which features a lot of deep closer's and several others who will be positioned well off the early leaders entering the backstretch, Gun Runner has shown he can be placed in perfect striking position early on allowing Geroux to get first run on the closer's. His will to win and his experience over the Churchill dirt surface has been documented. Gun Runner is also bred for distance. His dam won 5 of her 6 races going long. What concerns me is the quality of competition he defeated as a 2-year-old and in both starts this year.
The 3-year- olds at Fair Grounds were no better than average. In the Louisiana Derby, Gun Runner could not have fallen into a better trip and pace scenario. The fractions he stalked were at best moderate. He easily took command from a very tired pacesetter turning for home and quickly opened up a clear lead. In mid-stretch, Gun Runner drifted towards the rail racing a bit erratically and then switched to his wrong lead. In most instances I would say that he was getting leg weary, which does not bode well on the first Saturday in May when asked to run an additional 1/8th of a mile. You can also look at this erratic behavior another way. This was the first time Gun Runner had opened up such a lengthy lead on his closest pursuer in mid-stretch. He could have just been 'playing around' looking for some competition to challenge him. Gun Runner's margin of victory was 4 1/2 lengths. If rival Mo Tom would not have checked sharply in the midst of his closing rally in mid-stretch, Gun Runner would have probably still won, but it would have been a much closer finish.
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won many prestigious Grade 1 races, but the closest he has come to winning the Kentucky Derby was a third place finish with Curlin in 2007. Gun Runner's owner Verne Winchell has had 3 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Classic Go Go was his closest finisher when he ran fourth in 1981. In 1991 his Sea Cadet, known as the 'Tailless Wonder', finished eighth. Winchell's last starter was Valiant Nature who finished thirteenth in 1994. Gun Runner provides both Asmussen and Verne Winchell their best chance to win their first Kentucky Derby.
7th Selection #15 OUTWORK 15-1 VELAZQUEZ J PLETCHER T
Winning a horse race is no easy task, and the degree of difficulty in winning the Kentucky Derby is multiplied many times over. Trainer Todd Pletcher enters 2 runners this year, and one cannot adequately analyze his Derby entrants without examining his overall Derby record. Pletcher has a total of 43 Kentucky Derby runners through 2015. To summarize a Washington Post article penned last year by handicapper Andy Beyer: Pletcher has had but a single winner, Super Saver, from 43 Derby starters. Fully 29 of the 43 have finished 9th or worse. It is near mind boggling that a trainer who owns high percentage stats in nearly every
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category of training horses has been so abysmal in the Derby, given he trains nothing but the best well-bred runners. In truth, Todd Pletcher has had significantly more "at bats" in the Derby than most trainers. Since he usually has the horse flesh, that 1/43 record must come down to both racing luck and method of preparation for this unique race. Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby by two horses, Destin and Outwork. Of particular interest this year, in the context of his overall record, is the different prep path for each of his 44th and 45th Derby starters.
Destin has the more versatile running style as he has shown the ability to stalk, attack and finish. Outwork is a bit more forwardly placed early on. In 4 career starts, the farthest back he has been from the lead is a half-length after a 1/4 mile and a head off the lead after a 1/2 mile. Twice Outwork took command right from the start.
After breaking his maiden going 4 1/2 f in his debut in April 2015, Outwork was laid up until resurfacing Feb 13 at Tampa Bay Downs stretching out to 6f. He easily won his return after fighting off a stiff challenge into the stretch. Outwork's victory set him up nicely to try to rack up some Derby qualifying points in the Tampa Bay Derby. He would face off with Destin, a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher. Outwork set the pace right from the start with his stable-mate in close pursuit. These 2 would battle tooth and nail down the stretch with Destin prevailing by a length at the wire. Unlike Destin, who has trained up to the Kentucky Derby as a result of earning enough points to safely insure a start, Outwork would have to travel to New York for the Wood Memorial, needing at least a second place finish to get him into the field.
In the Wood, Outwork would be confronted by a wet track for the first time and pick up 7 Lbs. traveling 1 1/8 miles. Jockey John Velazquez, who had been aboard Outwork for all three previous starts, was back on. Velazquez wasted no time hustling the son of Uncle Mo to put pressure on the pacesetter Matt King Coal. He raced just a head back of that rival until edging clear at the top of the stretch. Outwork was able to fend off the closers late, in particular the maiden and 81-1 shot Trojan Nation, who was gaining on him in the final yards, just running out of ground to finish a head short of a monumental upset. Considering the track conditions, a new distance and racing right on on top of a fast pace, Outwork gutted out a very impressive victory, proving he is more than worthy of starting berth in the Kentucky Derby.
My main concern for Outwork is his running style. He has not yet shown that he can rate a few lengths behind a pacesetter, attack and finish. It must be assumed that his best game is racing on the lead or sitting right off of it. With the fleet footed Danzig Candy expected to establish the front end early with a good break from the gate, Velazquez has no choice but to take up a tracking position. If he uses him early not to allow Danzig Candy a free ride on the lead, both runners will be cooked at the top of the stretch. If Velazquez takes back, he will have to make a middle move, something that Outwork has never done before.
Outwork has been training beautifully since arriving at Churchill Downs. As far as size goes, he is the biggest 3-year-old in the field. There is no doubt in my mind that Outwork will handle the Derby distance just fine. If Velazquez can get him to relax early, Outwork will get first run on many of his rivals, which could prove to be a huge tactical advantage. Despite Pletcher's abysmal record in the Kentucky Derby, Outwork must be respected as win candidate for high profile owner Mike Repole.
8th Selection #11 EXAGGERATOR 8-1 DESORMEAUX K DESORMEAUX J
Exaggerator is one of more experienced and accomplished horses in the field. All four wins have come at four different race tracks and at four different distances. As a 2-year-old, his first two victories came in sprints last summer. The first was his maiden win at Del Mar. Exaggerator then shipped east and won a Grade 2 stake at Saratoga. He concluded his juvenile campaign with a stakes victory at Delta Downs, earning him 60 % or $600,000 of the $1-million-dollar purse.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux elected to take the Santa Anita route to the Kentucky Derby, mapping out a three race campaign to have Exaggerator in peak form the first Saturday in May. He returned from an eighty six day layoff in the San Vincente at 7f. Showing speed from the start, Exaggerator chased quick fractions outside of Nyquist, but was unable to make up any ground on that rival through the stretch, finishing a very determined second. 26 days later in the San Felipe, stretching back out to two turns, Exaggerator was forced out at the start, quickly finding himself last of six runners. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, riding for his brother, made a huge middle move into second with dead aim on pacesetter and eventual winner Danzig Candy midway on the far turn. Exaggerator fought hard through the stretch to cut into the pacesetter's lead, but came up short and had to settle for third.
With two sharp races off the layoff under his belt, Exaggerator was primed for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. It rarely rains in southern California in the spring and for the most part, dry weather can be an everyday occurrence for weeks on end. When the track comes up sloppy, it creates havoc in predicting the outcome of races, because most of the horses rarely run on sloppy tracks nor do they train over it. There was an unsettling weather pattern in southern California the week leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. That Saturday, the track was a quagmire throughout the 12 race card. The lukewarm favorite was Mor Spirit, who had run second in the his only start over a wet track at Churchill. 26-1 Uncle Lino who ran third, had one race in the slop at 5f, where he was beaten a neck. The 8-5 second choice in the betting Danzig Candy, had never run on wet track. Only one horse in the field, Exaggerator had a win and a second place finish on wet tracks, both in graded stakes. The rest of the field had no wet track experience.
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Once the gate opened for the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy, who was a bit fractious loading, ran off to a big lead into the first turn. Jockey Mike Smith was unable to throttle him down, resulting in a blistering pace which would take its toll on Danzing Candy in mid-stretch. The beneficiary of the pace meltdown was Exaggerator. His trainer's original plan was to stay close to the pacesetter early because Desormeaux felt that on wet tracks you are compromised if you have to close from far back. His plans were scrapped when Danzing Candy bottomed out the field early and Kent Desormeaux wisely elected to settle Exaggerator and make one late run. The last move was the winning move, as Exaggerator just inhaled the front runner at the top of the stretch with a perfectly timed rally, and drew off to an easy 6 1/4 length win. He could not have gotten a better pace set up, ride and trip over a wet surface he simply glides over.
Exaggerator's best trait is his versatility. He has proven he can win from on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. In the Kentucky Derby, he figures to be rating in mid pack before making his customary middle move. Unlike in the Santa Anita Derby when everything possible fell his way, this scenario is not likely to occur in a twenty horse field going 1 1/4 miles.
Exaggerator gets his stamina from his sire Curlin, but his dam line is slanted more towards sprint and middle distances. He has faced Nyquist three times and has lost all three. It is difficult for me to envision him turning the tables on that rival at the Derby distance, especially on a fast track. Exaggerator is a horse I will only use underneath in my exacta and trifecta wagers.
9th Selection # 3 CREATOR 10-1 SANTANA, JR. R ASMUSSEN S
It took Creator six starts before he broke his maiden. It was not for lack of quality or being entered in difficult spots that prevented this well bred son of top sire Tapit from winning.
For starters, Creator has no early speed, which compromises his chances. He falls victim to the pace scenario and having his rider navigate him through traffic, especially in large field sizes which Creator has faced in most of his starts. Even his past performance trouble lines will point this out with such notations as 'wide', 'shuffled back', 'bumped', 'waited' and 'thru traffic'. In the Kentucky Derby with 20 starters, it is likely another trouble line comment will be added to this list.
When Creator finally put it together in one of few races where the only comment from the chart caller was 'wide', he sustained a powerful and very impressive run through the stretch as if shot from a cannon to win by 7 1/4 lengths on February 27 making his first start at Oaklawn Park. In a bold move by newly inducted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Creator was entered in the Rebel Stakes. Once again Creator fell back into another zip code early on. He put in his customary late run, finishing third. The only way Creator and his high profile owners WinStar Farm would be represented in the Kentucky Derby with Creator was a victory and at minimum as second place finish 4 weeks later in the Arkansas Derby. Under a picture perfect ride by Oaklawn Park's leading rider Santana, Creator rallied through traffic from the back of the pack to split horses late, springing an 11-1 upset victory and earning him a date with destiny.
Like several others in the Derby field, Creator will find himself many lengths off the early leaders passing the Twin Spires for the first time. And like his fellow one-run deep closers, Creator will put in his customary late rally. Everything must fall into place for him to loom a danger in the latter stages of the race.
Creator is a talented 3-year-old whose human connections must be respected as much as his equine ability. Nevertheless, Creator is not the type of horse I could select on top, because he is would be more a 'wish and a prayer' selection that the seas will part and he will plow on through to victory. It is more likely that Creator stands a much better chance to pick up the pieces in deep stretch and land a sliver of the pie.
10th Selection # 4 MO TOM 20-1 LANERIE C AMOSS T
If there is one horse on Saturday who will have a legion of racing fans rooting for him based on the horrific trips he experienced on the road to the Kentucky Derby, it is Mo Tom.
As a 2-year-old Mo Tom showed steady improvement in all 4 starts, each in Kentucky at 3 different tracks. His last 2 starts in 2015 resulted in a stakes victory at Churchill Downs stretching out to a mile. Mo Tom concluded his juvenile campaign with a third place finish over a sloppy track in a Grade 2 stake at 2 turns under the Twin Spires.
High percentage winning trainer Tom Amoss elected to take the Louisiana road to the Derby at the Fair Grounds with their 3 race series consisting first of the La Comte, which Mo Tom passed with flying colors. Despite hitting the gate at the break, he recovered to sustain a strong closing run to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths.
No one could envision what would occur in Mo Tom's next 2 starts. In the Risen Star, as his jockey Corey Lanerie was making a bold move along the rail in mid-stretch to loom a danger to blow on by the leaders, the hole quickly closed up, forcing Mo Tom to check sharply. He lost all momentum but showed enough fight to recover and make another run in the closing yards. But the door had already closed on his likely victory.
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Mo Tom would seek redemption 5 weeks later in the Louisiana Derby. As you would have expected with anyone who had observed his bad fortune during the stretch run of the Risen Star, the son of Uncle Mo was bet down to the 2-1 favorite. And once again, backers of Mo Tom would have to suffer through a second stretch debacle costing him another possible victory. This time the pain would last even longer. Once again Mo Tom was gathering a full head of steam, picking up horses one-byone from the back of the pack. Nearly at the same spot in mid-stretch as in the Risen Star, Mo Tom and Lanerie were forced to check sharply, only this time his traffic troubles would last for 1/16th of mile. He never even had a chance to fully recover and get himself back into stride to start a second run at the leaders. Mo Tom had to settle for fourth money, with his connections muttering in disgust 'what could have been'.
With the dust having cleared in the ensuing weeks and the connections of Mo Tom forgiving his rider for those 2 troubled trips, they are all hoping for a turn of fortunes in the Kentucky Derby. As one of the many deep closers in the field, it will be up to the Racing Gods to determine the fate of horses like Mo Tom.
If everything falls in place for Mo Tom and Lanerie, it now becomes an issue if he is good enough to win the Derby stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. I feel that a victory is probably not in the cards, even if there is not a straw in Mo Tom's path, which is unlikely. He is a one-run closer that is not very athletic and nimble enough to escape trouble very easily as we have observed and has distance limitations beyond 1 1/8 miles. It is my opinion that the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby featured the lesser quality 3 year olds. Mo Tom is not likely to win, but if everything falls his way, he could possibly hit the board.
11th Selection #10 WHITMORE 20-1 ESPINOZA V MOQUETT R
Whitmore is one of 5 horses in the Derby field who has won over the Churchill Downs main track. In his debut last November, the 3-year-old gelding broke slowly and then rushed up to chase fast fractions. He easily took command at the top of the stretch, drawing clear to a 7 1/4 length win at 15-1.
In his first 2 starts as a juvenile, Whitmore did not wear blinkers. Blinkers were added for his third start on Jan 16 cutting back to a sprint. The result was a decisive victory. What is interesting is in his next 3 starts back at 2 turns, Whitmore has not shown any early speed, quickly finding himself far back of the leaders. Was this by design, or simply a lack of interest by Whitmore in the early proceedings?
Since his trainer Ron Moquett is based in the midwest, it was logical that Whitmore's road to the Derby would go through Oaklawn Park. He would rally from far back to get second money in both the Southwest and Rebel, each run at 1 1/16 miles. In the Arkansas Derby, stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile, Whitmore and his rider Irad Ortiz were once again content to lag far off the early leaders after racing in tight between horses and checking soon after the start. The fractions set by the pacesetter were quick, resulting in a well spread out field of 12. Ortiz was able to get Whitmore to relax a couple paths off the rail on the backstretch. Approaching the far turn, Ortiz pushed on the gas and Whitmore responded instantly to begin his customary late run. Turning for home Whitmore was fanned out very wide while full of run. In mid-stretch, he ran out of gas and was unable to keep pace with winner Creator, who blew on by. Nearing the wire, Whitmore could not hold off Suddenbreakingnews, who had made the last move to get the place.
Whitmore clearly has talent, but he also can be his own worst enemy. He has developed traits which usually raise their ugly heads in a 20 horse field he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. If you look at his trouble lines to the far right of his Past Performances, you will see notations in all 6 of his starts such as 'Broke slow, veered out in stretch', 'Pinched start', 'Middle moved', 'Steadied', 'Bobbled', 'Nothing left'. Whitmore will need everything to fall his way in the Derby and not a straw in his path when he begins his late run from the back of the pack. Even if this happens, he does not give me the impression of being able to sustain his run at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Whitmore's ceiling is an 'on the board' finish and nothing more.
12th Selection #17 MOR SPIRIT 12-1 STEVENS G BAFFERT B
When you see any horse entered in the Kentucky Derby trained by Bob Baffert, it would be folly to dismiss his chances. Since 1996, Baffert Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a mind-boggling 4 times. He won back-to-back Derbies with Silver Charm in 1997 and Real Quiet in 1998. 4 years later Baffert scored with War Emblem. Last year American Pharoah became the first American Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 and the twelve in history. In contrast to a Derby trainer like Todd Pletcher (1/43 with 29 runners finishing ninth or worse). Even in defeat, Baffert-trained Derby runners have hit the board 5 times. In the last 20 years', Bob Baffert Kentucky Derby entrants have either won or hit the board 9 times or 45 % of the time. Simply amazing.
Mor Spirit will be Bob Baffert's lone runner in this year's Kentucky Derby. In 7 starts, he has won 3 races including 2 stakes and 4 second place finishes. 5 of those races came at his home base at Santa Anita with 1 win at Los Alamitos. The only time he left southern California, Mor Spirit shipped to Kentucky where he ran a very good second in a Grade 2 stake as a 2-yearold at Churchill Downs.
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There is no denying that Mor Spirit has quality and is very consistent. At times he is a bit head strong early in his races, as he demonstrated when second to Danzig Candy in the San Felipe. This characteristic was on display even in his workout April 26, when he blasted away under regular rider Gary Stevens to set fast fractions, with his first 3 furlongs run in 33.93 while racing in company. However, even when Mor Spirit has settled nicely in his races, when he begins his rally, he is one-paced. This was illustrated in all 3 of his victories and last time out in the Santa Anita Derby, when he finished 6 1/4 lengths behind Exagerrator over a sloppy track.
The key to his success in the Kentucky Derby will come down to Stevens being able to get him to relax early and time his move perfectly to avoid any trouble along the way. This could be a lot to ask in a 20 horse field stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. If it was any other trainer than Bob Baffert calling the shots, I would consider Mor Spirit as one of several in this field who can hit the board but not win. With Gary Stevens riding, Baffert's tremendous record in the Kentucky Derby and a horse who will get first run on the deep closer's, Mor Spirit has to be respected.
13th Selection # 9 DESTIN 15-1 CASTELLANO J PLETCHER T
Trainer Todd Pletcher will be represented in this year's Kentucky Derby with two lightly raced and well-bred colts who both appear on the improve. Destin and Outwork faced off against one another on March 12 in the Tampa Bay Derby, where Destin prevailed over his barn-mate by one length. His determined victory would serve as his final Derby prep. Destin has been trained up to the Derby off a 56-day layoff after having run 4 straight races about a month apart. The break was well deserved, especially for a 3year-old who has made forward moves in his last 3 starts with the addition of blinkers.
Destin is a grey son of the very good distance producing sire Giant's Causeway, out of a dam who won 4 route races totaling $847,000 in earnings, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. He is a full brother to $1-million-dollar earner Creative Cause, winner of 4 distance races, including the Norfolk and Best Pal as a 2-year-old and the San Felipe as a 3-year old. Creative Cause also placed in the Santa Anita Derby, skipped the Kentucky Derby and then went on to run third in the Preakness. Despite having not run further than 1 1/16 miles, Destin clearly has the pedigree to perform well at 1 1/4 miles. He has very good tactical speed to position himself in good striking position entering the backstretch, which minimizes the chances of his rider navigating through traffic and get first run on the deep closers. The danger is if the pace is quick and he is too close to it. The ability to get Destin to relax the first mile is imperative, so he has enough punch in the stretch.
Several of his rivals exit final prep races in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. All five races were run at 1 1/8 miles. Only the Florida Derby was run 36 days out from the Kentucky Derby. The other four were 28 days out. Destin must overcome his longer layoff and the added distance over a new racing surface toting more weight than he has ever carried before. In Destin's favor is that the route to the Kentucky Derby through Tampa Bay Downs has been fruitful in recent years. Todd Pletcher has started a lot of horses in the 'Run for the Roses'. Super Saver is Pletcher's only Kentucky Derby winner, who had his final prep race in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing third. Street Sense parlayed a win in the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby with a victory in the Kentucky Derby. Musket Man ran third at huge odds in the 2009 Kentucky Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby. The reason for such success is that the racing surface at Tampa is deep and tiring, which provides horses plenty of 'bottom' and stamina when they ship to other tracks which are harder and quicker racing surfaces. Trainers and owners love to race there during the winter months, not for the paltry purses they offer, but for their next stop, where Tampa shippers more than make up for lost income.
This year's Kentucky Derby has more contenders than pretenders. Several Derby starters do their best running from far off the pace, which requires a perfectly timed ride and a traffic free trip to have any chance of winning. Destin is clearly on the contender side of the ledger. His tactical speed and top rider Javier Castellano aboard, will help Destin get first run on the closers and a better chance to avoid trouble. Despite the positives, there comes some negatives, such as his layoff and Todd Pletcher's dismal record with his Kentucky Derby starters.
14th Selection #18 MAJESTO 30-1 JARAMILLO E DELGADO G
This $300,000 yearling purchase was cut out to be a quality runner and bred to relish a distance of ground the day he was conceived. He is a half-brother to Overanalyze, winner of the 2012 Remsen as a 2-year-old and the Arkansas Derby at 3.
It took 5 starts for Majesto to finally break his maiden, but that confidence boost victory helped propel him to a career best performance in the Florida Derby. Even though Majesto was no threat to Nyquist, he sustained a strong rally to get the place money at 21-1. He did benefit by getting a beautiful ground saving trip by top rider Castellano, while racing on the best part of the track.
Majesto loses Castellano in the Derby and it's unlikely he will get the same dream inside trip. Nevertheless, I would not dismiss his chances to nibble at a piece of the purse at huge odds. Majesto has yet to reach his ceiling and clearly the 'light bulb' went off in his maiden win. He is a not a dead stone closer as many in the field are, yet he won't race close to the early leaders entering the backstretch. Majesto is the type of horse who can just clunk along when others are tiring. You know he will handle the Derby distance well. If you watched his gallop out past the wire in the Florida Derby, you could see that there was plenty left in the tank.
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15th Selection #20 DANZING CANDY 15-1 SMITH M SISE, JR. C
If you want to predict who the pacesetter will be in this year's Kentucky Derby, you need to look no further than Danzing Candy. With the exception of his debut last November at Del Mar when he broke awkwardly, quickly finding himself last of twelve runners and seventh after the first call, in 4 subsequent starts Danzing Candy has not been headed after the first quarter mile. In each race, the distances got longer, which only made it easier for Danzing Candy to open up bigger margins between himself and the rest of the field after a half mile had been run. In 3 of those races, including the San Felipe, Danzing Candy would go wire-to-wire.
His toughest test to date came last time out in the Santa Anita Derby where his stamina would be tested for the first time at 1 1/8 miles, as well as his ability to handle a sloppy track, conditions he had neither raced on nor in all likelihood trained over.
Danzing Candy's fate in the Santa Anita Derby was sealed after running four furlongs in a blistering :45 1/5. Mike Smith was not able to control his runaway speed with six furlongs in 1:10 flat. At that point Exaggerator just swooped on by a very tired horse. Smith did not abuse Danzing Candy as he steadily dropped back through the stretch.
Danzing Candy will not have to run over sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby which is a good thing. The bad news is that he will probably have to go faster than par for the first 6 furlongs of the race, which has been run in 1:11 (2003-2015). He will likely face intense pressure on the far turn, resulting in his inability to withstand the onslaught of horses closing from behind. Danzing Candy does not have the breeding, nor does he give me the impression that he is suited to 1 1/4 miles the first Saturday in May.
16th Selection #16 SHAGAF 20-1 ROSARIO J BROWN C
Shagaf makes his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby after being soundly defeated April 9 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The Wood would be the fourth straight time that he would be sent off as the post time favorite following 3 impressive victories, twice in New York and his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park.
It was not surprising that Shagaf's connections would begin his career going a mile. From all this year's Kentucky Derby entrants, Shagaf is one the best bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance. His dam Muhaaware is a half-sister to Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon at 1 1/2 miles. The previous year, Eldaafer won the Brooklyn BC Handicap at the same distance at Belmont Park. There are several other long-winded and quality performers throughout the family. Ironically, Eldaafar's sire was A. P. Indy, the same sire as Shagaf's father Benardini, both who won prestigious Grade 1 stakes going a distance of ground.
Shagaf could not have been more impressive winning his first start by 6 lengths. He shipped to Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut at the same 2-turn mile. Similar to his debut win, Shagaf stalked early and drew clear at the top of the stretch, on his way to a decisive victory. Trainer Chad Brown shipped him back north for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and stretched Shagaf out to 2-turns for the first time on the inner dirt track. He had to work harder to get the win, but did so with a perfect ride and trip.
His final Derby prep would come 35 days later in the Wood Memorial. Shagaf would be facing some new shooters, but more importantly a sealed sloppy track for the first time while stretching out an additional 1/16th of a mile and picking up 7 Lbs. After racing up close to the leaders in the early stages of each of his prior 3 starts, Shagaf and jockey Irad Ortiz, who had ridden him each time, found themselves towards the rear of the field, 11 lengths back into the clubhouse turn. Shagaf made up ground to loom dangerously for a brief moment at the top of the stretch, but flattened out when it counted.
One might say that the muddy surface, which he clearly did not like, compromised his chances. But Shagaf is bred well to handle wet tracks and he got quick fractions to close into. I feel that the Wood Memorial probably exposed him as a 3-year-old who does not yet possess the quality of several others in the Kentucky Derby field. Top rider Irad Ortiz probably feels the same way. Ortiz has elected to jump off Shagaf in favor of another Chad Brown entrant My Man Sam in the Kentucky Derby, who he had ridden in his first 3 starts. Ortiz chose instead to ride Shagaf in the Wood, rather than My Man Same the same day at Keeneland in the Blue Grass. This is a jockey switch, which means something. Joel Rosario, who had been sidelined because of an injury and but resumed riding 1 week ago, will have the mount aboard Shagaf in the Derby.
Expect Shagaf to return to stalking tactics with a clean break. Rosario will go after front running Danzig Candy on the far turn, but will have to work hard to try to go by. This middle move is likely to take its toll on Shagaf in the stretch.
17th Selection # 1 TROJAN NATION 50-1 GRYDER A GALLAGHER P
Obviously the connections of this 3-year-old son of Street Cry knew something more than I did and everyone else looking over his past performances when he arrived at Aqueduct from Santa Anita for the Wood Memorial. If I am grasping at straws, you could say that his bullet 5f workout, the best of 59, just 6 days before the Wood, was a tip off to them that a huge form reversal was upcoming. He had never worked that fast in the past. Even so, there was absolutely no way you could consider Trojan Nation a contender, even in an 8 horse field. He was winless in 5 starts and had never even run second. In 3 races Trojan Nation had run third, finishing 1 3/4, 3 3/4 and 9 lengths back of the winner, all in Maiden Special Weight races.
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Would anyone who owned a horse with his resume go to the expense of flying him across country? I really doubt it, but trainer Patrick Gallagher and Trojan Nation's owners had the courage to do it. For their confidence in this colt, they fell a head short of one of the greatest upsets 'on the road to the Kentucky Derby'. One more jump and Trojan Nation would have lit up the board to the tune of 81-1 or a mutual payoff of $165.00 for every $2.00 wagered. Even though he did not win, Trojan Nation earned enough qualifying points to earn a spot in the Derby field.
How could this monumental turnaround in fortunes occur? 3 factors obviously came into play and each are intertwined. This was the first time Trojan Nation had raced over a wet track listed as 'muddy'. He obviously handled the footing very well. He was allowed to drop back into another zip code by his New York based rider Aaron Gryder. As a result of the fast pace, Trojan Nation settled in last place, 17 lengths back of the leaders while taken to the rail to save valuable ground. With the ensuing speed duel developing around the far turn, and horses making middle moves forcing some to suffer wide trips, Gryder was content to let each horse do the dirty work and just ride the fence hoping to pick off tired horses in the stretch. The tactics nearly worked out, but unfortunately the last horse standing was the winner Outwork, who amazingly held on as well as he did setting a pressured fast pace from start to finish of the 1 1/8-mile race. Trojan Nation even experienced some trouble when in tight and brushed inside the 1/8th pole.
Going forward into the Kentucky Derby, what can we expect from Trojan Nation back on a dry surface? A wet track can truly be an equalizer as some horses handle the going fine and others clearly prefer dry footing. It is very difficult for me to endorse a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. Like many others in the Derby, Trojan Nation is a deep closer who will need all the breaks to fall his way. I'm still not convinced, off a single huge effort, that Trojan Nation has developed into a horse who is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby, or even hitting the board.
18th Selection # 8 LANI 30-1 TAKE Y MATSUNAGA M
It is difficult to properly assess the quality of competition Lani faced and defeated in Japan and last time out when he was victorious in the U A E Derby at Meydon on the Dubai World Cup undercard. Equally difficult and just as important are the effects of all the frequent flyer miles he has accumulated traveling from Japan to Dubai and then to the US in less than 2 months.
Lani is a monster of a colt in terms of size, so I am presuming the travel is not an issue. The 3-year-old grey is one of the bestbred runners in the field. Lani was sired by Tapit, the top stallion in the US, out of a dam who won $3.5 million. He is a halfbrother to Amour Biller, winner of $1.5 million in Japan and victor of 5 stakes races, all going a distance of ground.
Lani concluded his juvenile campaign with 2 straight wins in Japan for top Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who I would favorably compare to Chad Brown in the US. Both are young horsemen on the brink of stardom. Even in those 2 victories, as well as in each of his 3 prior starts, Lani showed a lack of interest early, as if he was just enjoying goofing around a bit until set down by his rider. Once again in the U A E Derby, Lani broke awkwardly and took his time to settle into his stride which on camera is not very fluid, but powerful, hitting the ground very hard. He quickly made a huge brush to go from last to second while racing well out on the track. In the stretch, Lani dropped back a bit as if beaten, but he found another gear, grinding down the leaders and out finishing the betting favorite Polar River in the shadow of the wire.
Bad habits raise their ugly head in a twenty horse Kentucky Derby field amidst the massive Churchill Downs crowd. Lani has raced in field sizes up to 16 horses twice, so that is not the concern. The issues are his lethargic behavior in the early part of his races and the traffic he is likely to encounter when he does make his move. Even though Lani's rider Take has experience in the US, the Derby is a whole different ball game. I have watched Lani move over the Churchill dirt surface in morning works and long distance gallops since arriving and do not like what I am seeing. Lani pounds the ground too hard and he just doesn't seem very comfortable over it. There are too many obstacles Lani must overcome for me to consider him a contender.
19th Selection # 7 OSCAR NOMINATED 50-1 LEPAROUX J MAKER M
Owner Ken Ramsey, who has helped carry the torch for enthusiasm and sportsmanship in the current climate of the game, struck some gold when he claimed Oscar Nominated for $75,000 last October at Belmont. Ramsey could not pass up a grass bred distance horse sired by his very own mainstay and prolific sire Kitten's Joy, who was an outstanding race horse in his own right, but has been the anchor for his breeding business and a yearly annuity.
Once Oscar Nominated was dropped in for the tag, Ramsey did not hesitate to lay down the cash. His astute purchase is reaping him huge dividends. If the colt can pull off a monster upset victory in the Kentucky Derby, Oscar Nominated would go down as the greatest claim since Stymie, who was purchased for $1500 by the legendary trainer Hirsch Jacobs in 1943. Stymie went on to win 35 races for Jacob's, including 20 stakes victories, many graded and nearly $1 million in earnings.
In 4 starts for Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker, Oscar Nominated has run second twice, beaten a head and a neck, and then won his last 2 races, capped off by the neck victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on April 2. The obstacle that Oscar
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Nominated will have to overcome, and it cannot be minimized in any way, is that in 7 starts, 6 have been run on turf and last time out over Polytrack.
5 years ago Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby with a similar profile. He had never run on dirt prior to the Derby. That year, I ended up making Animal Kingdom my top selection when he upset the field at 25-1 in a very similar wide open affair. There is a significant difference this year. I had discovered through reliable sources, and later confirmed, that Animal Kingdom had worked very well on dirt training in preparation for his career debut. Even though he had run several races before making his first start on dirt, the fact that he handled it very well and hardly anyone knew it, was the main reason I decided to take a chance selecting him. In the case of Oscar Nominated, he has worked over dirt several times. If you go back to his workouts in February and March in the Past Performances, you can even see 4 listed workouts on dirt at the Fair Grounds. They are respectable, but they also don't provide you any strong indicators that dirt will be a surface he will feel at home over. This has also been confirmed in his works at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.
Oscar Nominated is clearly improving and his versatile running style is his greatest asset. But the field he will be facing Saturday is a far different animal to the much weaker competition he has been meeting on his upward trajectory. Add in the surface switch to dirt for the first time and what you have is a horse that is difficult to consider a Kentucky Derby winner or for that matter hitting the board. Were he to win, Oscar Nominated, would not only win a piece of racing's version of Hollywood's Oscar, but possibly position himself right for a spot next to Stymie in Racing's Hall of Fame on Union Avenue directly across the street from Saratoga Race Course.
20th Selection #12 TOM'S READY 30-1 HERNANDEZ, JR. B STEWART D
Tom's Ready is one of the most experienced horses in the Kentucky Derby field with 9 starts. Only Fellowship has run more races with 11 and Exaggerator next in line with the same 9 career outings. He will be huge odds in the Derby and deservedly so.
Tom's Ready lone victory was his maiden win at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs. It was the only time he raced on the lead from the start going wire-to-wire setting a moderate pace while adding blinkers for the first time. He has started 6 times since then, with 4 second place finishes.
Trainer Dallas Stewart took the Louisiana route to the Derby with Tom's Ready with starts in the Le Comte, Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. In 2 of those stakes, he rallied for second, but was no threat to Mo Tom and Gun Runner, 2 rivals he will be facing again Saturday. Tom's Ready has a multitude of trouble lines in his Past Performances, which does not bode well for him in a 20 horse field. It is highly unlikely to imagine that Tom's Ready's first win going 2 turns will come in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles. To think he will even hit the board is a stretch.
Wagering Strategy
* Win & Place bet on (6) MY MAN SAM
* Exacta box (2) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (6) MY MAN SAM, (13) NYQUIST, (14) MOHAYMEN & (19) BRODY'S CALL = $40 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box 6-13-14-19 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Trifecta 6-13-14-19 over 2-6-13-14-19 over 2-3-4-5-6-9-10-11-13-14-15-17-18-19-20 = $104 for a $0.50 wager
