Kentucky Derby & Oaks info & analysis [pp's]

[Akillies]

<aside class="ds-coll"> Richard Eng

covers the horse racing industry. His column appears Friday in Sports.
</aside>
Trainer Bob Baffert has two good reasons to feel confident about winning his fourth Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday. They are American Pharoah (5-2) and Dortmund (3-1).
He has two aces in the hole, while other trainers are holding jacks and 10s. But as we have learned through history, the Kentucky Derby rarely goes as planned.
If the Derby is run like a ballet, American Pharoah will win. He is poetry in motion. If it’s a street fight, which it is more often, then I prefer Dortmund.
Dortmund is a huge 17-hands horse. Smaller horses will bounce off him like Nerf balls as he motors his way around.
Both Baffert horses have early speed, but they will not duel one another. One will lead and one will stalk. I’m guessing the latter would be Dortmund.
As brilliant as American Pharoah has been, he has not been tested. It’s not his fault because no one can get near him. However, the Kentucky Derby seldom is won the way War Emblem (2002) did, nearly unopposed, wire to wire.
Typically there is a contested early pace. That is followed by half the field falling apart from the top of the stretch as horses either tire or discover they’re not bred to go this far. That’s when a host of long-shot plodders close through the field.
I had liked Carpe Diem (8-1) as a contender until he drew post 2. His jockey John Velazquez now has few options inside a 20-horse field, and none of them are good.
A horse I believe can pair up big races is Frosted (15-1). He won the Wood Memorial with style under Joel Rosario. He sat back and made one run. If he can repeat his Wood race, he might give the Baffert colts their money’s worth.
Then there is Firing Line (12-1). He twice came within inches of beating Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert Lewis. If you like Dortmund, you should like Firing Line, too.
In every Derby, there are long shots that close from far back to finish in the money. Four deep closers I am going to use in vertical wagers include Danzig Moon (30-1), International Star (20-1), Keen Ice (50-1) and War Story (50-1).
If one of them can finish in the money with Dortmund, I most likely will cash a vertical bet or two.
Dortmund has the physique that could hold up to the grueling nature of three Triple Crown races in five weeks. We have not had a Triple Crown champion in 36 years since Affirmed in 1978.
Odds are we are not going to have one this year either, no matter how easily the Derby is won.
The hype on American Pharoah has been over the top. It’s been fueled by two things. Baffert has called the horse the best he’s ever trained, and he has trained a lot of great ones.
Then highly respected Southern California clocker Gary Young compared American Pharoah to Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew (1977). That’s like calling Bryce Harper the next Babe Ruth.
First, let’s get through Saturday to see if Baffert’s pair of aces is good enough to win the pot.
ENG’S PICKS — Dortmund, Frosted, American Pharoah, International Star, Firing Line

 

[Akillies]

[h=1]Many top-notch horses, but no guarantees in Kentucky Derby[/h]

<figure class="image media-3403341 mlink even">

<figcaption class="caption">Apr 29, 2015; Louisville, KY, USA; Exercise rider Dana Barnes works out Kentucky Derby hopeful Dortmund trained by Bob Baffert at Churchill Downs. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

</figcaption></figure>



AS VEGAS ***************

John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas race and sports book director, analyzes the 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday:
It’s a great 3-year-old crop, at least with the top six horses. There are exceptional horses in this race. But that doesn’t mean one of those horses is going to win, and that’s what makes the Derby a special race and a great betting race. People are shooting for a jackpot. That’s why the Derby is America’s No. 1 betting race.
(Horses listed by post position)
1.  Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1) — This horse had a couple of promising races at the end of last year, but when he faced the top 3-year-olds, the results were not so good. He finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4. He gets the unenviable No. 1 post position, and finishing ocho (eighth) might be the best he can expect. I’m not going to use him.
2. Carpe Diem (8-1) — His only defeat was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita in November, when he placed second to Texas Red. This is one of four horses trained by Todd Pletcher. The post position is awful, and his odds might drift higher because of that. But this is one of those quality horses I mentioned.
3.  Materiality (12-1) — This is a fine horse that has won all three of his starts, including the Florida Derby, but that’s where my ambiguity begins because I think a horse needs to be knocked around a little and form a solid base. This horse has shown early speed and has got to have a fair amount of it to escape the 3-hole. From what I see, his numbers are fast, but it’s just a lack of experience.
4. Tencendur (30-1) — A New York-bred horse, Tencendur finished second to Frosted in the Wood Memorial on April 4. At 21-1 odds, that was a big race for him. I look for him to take a couple steps back after that stellar effort. He doesn’t look like the second coming of Funny Cide, a New York-bred horse that won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2003.
5. Danzig Moon (30-1) — His best race was the Blue Grass Stakes in April, when he finished second to Carpe Diem. His last workout at Churchill Downs was impressive. This horse is something to respect and one I would consider in my gimmick wagers.
6. Mubtaahij (20-1) — This horse has seven lifetime races, five in Dubai and two in England. The two to start his career in England were on grass, and he was terrible. But he won four of five at Meydan Racecourse, and a lot of people are really high on this horse. I’m not as high on him. The top echelon of this group is much better than him, in my opinion.
7. El Kabeir (30-1) — Last summer he looked like he might be the Derby favorite. I opened him at 65-1 in the futures book in September, second choice to American Pharoah at 40-1. He ran third in the Wood Memorial. His jockey is Calvin Borel, who has won the Derby three times, but it feels like he will finish somewhere around sixth to eighth.
8. Dortmund (3-1) — Bob Baffert is the trainer for two horses in this race, and they probably will be the first and second choices at post time. Dortmund is undefeated in six starts, and he has improved in each race. He won the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. This is a son of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. He can go to the front or work from a stalking position. This is a perfect post position. He looks like he will play the part of one of the top two contenders.
9. Bolo (30-1) — There is nothing I can look at to knock this horse, and that’s why the owners decided to take a shot in this race. But he looks like a turf horse to me, and he ran a distant third to Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby. Rafael Bejarano is going to ride him for the first time.
10. Firing Line (12-1) — This is definitely one not to overlook. Every year in the Derby, there is some type of wiseguy horse, and he could end up being that horse. He finished second to Dortmund twice and destroyed the field in the Sunland Park Derby in March. He’s coming into the race in good shape. He has been impressive in every race, and the masterful Gary Stevens is on board.
11.  Stanford scratched; replaced by Frammento (50-1), who will start on the outside post. Trainer Todd Pletcher said Stanford’s connections had been unsure about starting the horse in the Derby. “We entered the horse in the race to see what sort of post he might draw,” he said.
12. International Star (20-1) — He won all three Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, including the Louisiana Derby, so I think he’s something to consider in gimmicks. This horse has heart, and he really tries hard to win a race.
13. Itsaknockout (30-1) — This horse has got the right name for this weekend. I’ve got to think this is going to be a popular horse in Las Vegas for people picking names. His performance in the Florida Derby was poor, but the track was playing funny that day. That followed his win — via disqualification — in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February. He could be in line for a piece of the action. This is another horse trained by Pletcher.
14. Keen Ice (50-1) — His only win in seven starts was in a maiden race at Churchill Downs in September. It’s not like Keen Ice has been killing it, but there are some attractive things about this horse. In this race, he picks up jockey Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbys. I could see him picking up fading horses if the race falls apart.
15. Frosted (15-1) — Joel Rosario is an excellent jockey, and Kiaran McLaughlin is a good trainer. His win in the Wood Memorial was huge. This horse had some breathing problems, and had surgery prior to that win to solve those problems. This horse has shown continuous improvement and has got to be considered for a piece of the action.
16. War Story (50-1) — This horse was in perfect position to capture all of the Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, but couldn’t get the job done. He ran third in the Louisiana Derby. He has had some gate issues, and in this race, if you can’t get out of the gate, your day is over early.
17. Mr. Z (50-1) — There never has been a winner from the 17 spot, and that’s going to continue. But what’s a Derby without trainer D. Wayne Lukas as a participant? This horse won his first start in July and has gone 11 straight races without a win.
18. American Pharoah (5-2) — Over the past week or so, this horse has gotten about as much hype as the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. He crushed the field in the Arkansas Derby on April 11 and has four straight wins. Baffert is the trainer, the horse’s workouts have been very good and all systems are go. I think he has got enough to win, but most of his experience is against smaller fields. If he had drawn the 8 post like Dortmund, he probably would be 2-1, but since he got 18, he might go off a little higher. If you’re good enough, the 18 post shouldn’t be an issue, and I think he’s good enough.
19. Upstart (15-1) — I think he’s a solid contender. This horse puts his best foot forward in every race. He finished first in the Fountain of Youth but was disqualified, and placed second in the Florida Derby. The 19 post is certainly a concern.
20. Far Right (30-1) — This horse is most likely suited for a shorter distance. He finished second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, but what does that mean? He was a distant second. It’s like the Colts finishing second to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. And he’s got to start from a small town outside of Louisville.
21. Frammento (50-1) — He’s an average horse. In three Derby prep races — the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes — his best finish was third, and that was a distant third. I guess just being in the Derby is a big deal for the owners.
Final analysis: In a race like this, I usually don’t mess around with the chalks, but I will look at Dortmund for sure. I have to look at Frosted, Firing Line and Upstart. Carpe Diem is a horse I really liked before the draw, and if his odds drift up, I might use him, too. American Pharoah is not going to be my key horse because he will be too short at 5-2 in the 18 post.

 

[Akillies]

arcus Hersh , Churchill Downs , 2015-04-29 - DRF Live Posted : Apr 29, 2015, 12:10 PM

[h=2]Quick take on what I've seen so far from Derby horses[/h] In Mike Welsch we've got an ace clocker upstairs generating invaluable info all morning and in his daily Clocker Report, but after three days of seeing as much as I can of these horses while standing right on the rail near the three-quarters gap on the backstretch, might as well put down what things have looked like from there so far this week.
AMERICAN PHAROAH - Nothing to fault him in his two days of training (one jog, one gallop). Its crazy how many people Churchill security lets near the horses before the Oaks - Derby training session starts at 8:30. There were dozens of folks pressing in on American Pharoah and Dortmunnd, cameras and phones just a few feet away, as the two walked round in tight circles waiting to go out onto the track. None other than jockey Mike Smith, standing among the crowd, remarked to AP's exercise rider, "It looks like he's really starting to enjoy the attention," and indeed, the press of humans didn't seem to bother the colt a bit.
DORTMUND - Same as above. Looks great. Probably be my top selection.
MATERIALITY - Best day galloping this week was Monday, I thought. Didn't care for him Tuesday, but he was better today, and got less hot. Not tossing based on appearance, but not upgrading.
CARPE DIEM - Keeping quiet by design this week. Very mild gallops two straight days. Think he looks very well, & seeing nothing to downgrade his good form.
MUBTAAHIJ - Done very little in terms of training so far, & can't judge him that way, but he is as calm and relaxed as any horse out there, and has taken his heavy travel and racing schedule as well as could possibly be hoped.
FIRING LINE - Just, wow. Best looking animal training the last two days. Fabulously handsome, powerful, has beautiful way of moving. Requires draw reins to keep him check, and he had his neck bent in half today, yet they were able to slow him down to a 1:02 5fs work last weekend. Trainer insists he can rate off pace Saturday. Had I more confidence he'll stay 10fs, I'd pick him.
FROSTED - Got first look at him Wednesday. Average gallop. Nothing to sway one in either direction.
INTERNATIONAL STAR - Tough to read. He's not a fluid mover, and occasionally looks downright rough, but his gallops have been faster and stronger than any horse this week, and he does it with good energy. Think you gotta use him in tris and supers.
UPSTART - First day Wednesday after shipping from Fla. with Frosted, and of the two, this one was significantly more eye-catching. In good flesh. Smooth gallop. Can't fault on looks.
BOLO - Real show stopper in terms of raw appearance, but wasn't as enamored with his training session Wednesday as Tuesday. Still think he's a turf horse at bottom.
DANZIG MOON - One of the training stars of the week, as well documented by Mr. Welsch. Every day is more of the same - he's floating off the ground in his gallops, and gives the sense he is jumping out of his skin. Ability is the issue. Improving. I'm using him.
EL KABEIR - Haven't seen him yet.
FAR RIGHT - Long way from the flashy ones, though he's going better than some. Appearance wouldn't sway me one way of the other.
ITSAKNOCKOUT - Don't want to disparage anyone's horse, but couldn't possibly use him based on what I've seen this week.
STANFORD - Galloping as well, if not better, than any of the Pletcher horses. Excellent energy and on the muscle all week. Doubt he's good enough, but appears in very good form.
TENCENDUR - Brief glimpse on Wednesday. There's a lot of meat on the bone. Can't say much more than that.
WAR STORY - Little chance on paper, less in person
MR Z - see War Story
OCHO OCHO OCHO - See War Story & Mr Z
FRAMMENTO - Actually looked pretty decent galloping Wednesday. The grindiest of grinders. If he gets in and you play the super, put him on one ticket in fourth; slightest chance to get the tiniest share because he might stay.

 

[Akillies]

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-oaks-churchill-downs

 

[Akillies]

http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-sponsored-fasig-tipton-churchill-downs#PPS

 

[Akillies]

Ave payout for the Oaks/derby double

$370

 

[Akillies]

Here's a look at your current Kentucky Derby odds, with $82,016 in the pool:
Kentucky Derby field
1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (E. Trujillo), 28-1
2. Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez), 7-1
3. Materiality (J. Castellano), 19-1
4. Tencendur (M. Franco), 79-1
5. Danzig Moon (J. Leparoux), 18-1
6. Mubtaahij (C. Soumillon), 22-1
7. El Kabeir (C. Borel), 20-1 scratched
8. Dortmund (M. Garcia), 5-1
9. Bolo (R. Bejarano), 51-1
10. Firing Line (G. Stevens), 11-1
11. Stanford - SCRATCHED
12. International Star (M. Mena), 19-1
13. Itsaknockout (L. Saez), 34-1
14. Keen Ice (K. Desormeaux), 28-1
15. Frosted (J. Rosario), 9-1
16. War Story (J. Talamo), 44-1
17. Mr. Z (R. Vazquez), 26-1
18. American Pharoah (V. Espinoza), 5-2
19. Upstart (J. Ortiz), 36-1
20. Far Right (M. Smith), 42-1
21. Frammento (C. Nakatani), 99-1
AE – Tale of Verve - SCRATCHED

 

[Akillies]

[h=2]Birdatthewire is early 3-1 fave for Kentucky Oaks[/h] With still four hours to post time (5:49 ET), and with $326,530 in the win pool, BIRDATTHEWIRE (13) is a slight favorite (per the CD mutuels office) over STELLAR WIND (12) in early wagering on the G1 Kentucky Oaks (R11), both at 3-1. Here is the entire rundown:
1. FOREVER UNBRIDLED, 26-1
2. SHOOK UP, 27-1
3. INCLUDE BETTY, 20-1
4. ESKENFORMONEY, 27-1
5. CONDO COMMANDO, 5-1
6. ANGELA RENEE, 18-1
7. LOVELY MARIA, 8-1
8. I’M A CHATTERBOX, 7-1
9. MONEY’SONCHARLOTTE, 58-1
10. OCEANWAVE, 16-1
11. SARAH SIS, 31-1
12. STELLAR WIND, 3-1
13. BIRDATTHEWIRE, 3-1
14. PUCA, 15-1
15. PEACE AND WAR, SC

 

[Akillies]

el kabeer scratched from derby

 

[Akillies]

[h=2]Brad Thomas goes through each horse in the Kentucky Derby[/h]
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/?podcast_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.podtrac.com%2Fpts%2Fredirect.mp3%2Fpodtrackstg.radio.com%2Fpts%2Fnyc.podcast.play.it%2Fmedia%2Fd0%2Fd0%2Fd1%2Fd8%2Fd9%2FdT%2FdQ%2F189TQ_3.MP3%3Fshow%3DMike+Francesa%26amp%3Bcategory%3DSports+%26+Recreation%26amp%3Bcallsign%3DWFANAM%26amp%3Bmarket%3Dnew-york&podcast_name=Mike+Francesa+with+Brad+Thomas&podcast_artist=Mike+Francesa&station_id=62&tag=pages&dcid=CBS.NY

 

[oldmanTED]

DRF Past Performance

http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/...ning=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

Good Luck Everyone!

 

[quantumleap]

Keen Ice to Show for me please.