[h=1]Kentucky among best tourney title bets[/h]ESPN INSIDER
Parity was the buzzword during the college basketball regular season and it hasn't gone away during the postseason.
It was a rotating carousel for the No. 1 spot in the AP poll all year long, as No. 1 seeds went down time and again in conference tournaments. And the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament this year have combined to lose a record 23 games
So, this year's tourney is wide-open and worth a shot at some long shots in the future books, especially with no prohibitive odds-on favorite as we had with Kentucky last year (though the Wildcats didn't eventually complete their perfect season). An argument can be made for at least 20 teams being capable of winning the national title, and I tend to think that's a conservative number.
I'm going to focus on three value bets from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook futures board, but first a few caveats: Oddsmakers tend to shade each team's odds lower than their true odds, so usually the best way to bet a team to run the table is to bet each of its games on the money line, parlaying the winnings from game to game. If you decide to still go ahead and bet the fixed-odds futures, odds will vary from book to book, so it pays to shop around for the best price.
With that being said, here are my three best value bets using the Westgate's adjusted odds after the brackets were announced late Sunday afternoon.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Iowa State Cyclones (60-1)
I'm pot-committed on this play. Last April, I did an article for Chalk where I made the Cyclones my best value bet at 15-1. I loved thatGeorges Niang was returning for his senior season after Iowa State was ousted in the round of 32 and well-respected coach Fred Hoiberg was bringing back a solid team. Of course, I didn't know at the time that Hoiberg would leave to coach the NBA's Chicago Bulls. And then guard Naz Long was lost for the season in December.
However, the Cyclones have still had a solid season in the tough Big 12, knocking off Oklahoma and Kansas along the way. In fact, I believe all of the Big 12 teams are battle-tested and worth a look at making deep runs. I have multiple tickets on Iowa State between 20-1 and 30-1 from last spring, but if you jump in now you can get 60-1. While it's a long shot, I still believe it's doable for Niang & Co.
Kentucky Wildcats (15-1)
If you're looking for a top contender at a decent price, I would recommend Kentucky. This team hasn't been as consistent, but John Calipari (who usually has to start from scratch each year with all the one-and-done players he recruits and develops) has them peaking at the right time. If you believe backcourt play is the key for NCAA success, you can't do much better than point guard Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray. If the big men step up, the Wildcats can play with anyone, even though they're in a tough region.
California Golden Bears (40-1)
Speaking of young talent, freshman phenoms Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb star for California, and they have a veteran supporting cast as well. If the Golden Bears get on a roll (and they did win seven straight games in February to punch their at-large ticket) and fully live up to their potential, that 40-1 could look like a bargain a week from now, though they're on a collision course with No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the Sweet 16. However, if Cal wins its first two games, you're going to be hearing a lot of people talk about how their talent is comparable to Kansas'.
Parity was the buzzword during the college basketball regular season and it hasn't gone away during the postseason.
It was a rotating carousel for the No. 1 spot in the AP poll all year long, as No. 1 seeds went down time and again in conference tournaments. And the four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament this year have combined to lose a record 23 games
So, this year's tourney is wide-open and worth a shot at some long shots in the future books, especially with no prohibitive odds-on favorite as we had with Kentucky last year (though the Wildcats didn't eventually complete their perfect season). An argument can be made for at least 20 teams being capable of winning the national title, and I tend to think that's a conservative number.
I'm going to focus on three value bets from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook futures board, but first a few caveats: Oddsmakers tend to shade each team's odds lower than their true odds, so usually the best way to bet a team to run the table is to bet each of its games on the money line, parlaying the winnings from game to game. If you decide to still go ahead and bet the fixed-odds futures, odds will vary from book to book, so it pays to shop around for the best price.
With that being said, here are my three best value bets using the Westgate's adjusted odds after the brackets were announced late Sunday afternoon.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Iowa State Cyclones (60-1)
I'm pot-committed on this play. Last April, I did an article for Chalk where I made the Cyclones my best value bet at 15-1. I loved thatGeorges Niang was returning for his senior season after Iowa State was ousted in the round of 32 and well-respected coach Fred Hoiberg was bringing back a solid team. Of course, I didn't know at the time that Hoiberg would leave to coach the NBA's Chicago Bulls. And then guard Naz Long was lost for the season in December.
However, the Cyclones have still had a solid season in the tough Big 12, knocking off Oklahoma and Kansas along the way. In fact, I believe all of the Big 12 teams are battle-tested and worth a look at making deep runs. I have multiple tickets on Iowa State between 20-1 and 30-1 from last spring, but if you jump in now you can get 60-1. While it's a long shot, I still believe it's doable for Niang & Co.
Kentucky Wildcats (15-1)
If you're looking for a top contender at a decent price, I would recommend Kentucky. This team hasn't been as consistent, but John Calipari (who usually has to start from scratch each year with all the one-and-done players he recruits and develops) has them peaking at the right time. If you believe backcourt play is the key for NCAA success, you can't do much better than point guard Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray. If the big men step up, the Wildcats can play with anyone, even though they're in a tough region.
California Golden Bears (40-1)
Speaking of young talent, freshman phenoms Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb star for California, and they have a veteran supporting cast as well. If the Golden Bears get on a roll (and they did win seven straight games in February to punch their at-large ticket) and fully live up to their potential, that 40-1 could look like a bargain a week from now, though they're on a collision course with No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the Sweet 16. However, if Cal wins its first two games, you're going to be hearing a lot of people talk about how their talent is comparable to Kansas'.
