Kenny Florian v. Roger Huerta (UFC 87)

[turbozed]

Kenny Florian (-130)

Huerta has nothing on Florian.

Huerta is a popular fighter and he has been marketed successfully. He's improved his game a lot and seems to get better in each of his fights. His first real test was against Guida, and he was failing it spectacularly until the 3rd where he showed a lot of grit by getting the finish. This was a combination of Huerta's ability and also a lack of focus on Guida's fault. Guida often seems to try to make a fight exciting at the expense of giving up position.

Florian, all jokes aside, really is a finisher. He makes sure to capitalize when he gets a dominant position. Florian's striking has improved, and Huerta shouldn't have any significant advantage there. Huerta's wrestling isn't top notch (being outwrestled by former *bantamweight* Doug Evans for a round). Once Florian gets control, he's got the killer instinct to put Huerta away.

I set the line at around -200. You're getting great value in this fight because Florian doesn't get too much love from the public ("look at how dorky he looks!") and Huerta gets way too much love from the public ("look at how handsome and awesome he looks....beating lackluster opponents!). In MMA especially, perception is greater than reality. This is one of those fights where you'll get value betting against perception.

Florian BIG. Let's say 5 units.

 

[sphincter]

in total agreement.....very favorable line,imo...

 

[TheBrainiac]

Where you got - 130 mate ? Damn 5dimes has - 155 .

 

[sleung]

i got money on Huerta

read my anaylsis
http://www.fighting-mma.com/mma-matchups/2008/ufc-87-gambling-kenny-florian-roger-huerta.php

 

[turbozed]

Disagree with almost everything in that writeup. Huerta's wrestling and striking are overrated. And Huerta is more a product of UFC hype than Florian by a vast margin. Huerta's only good win was Guida, and he was getting beat pretty convincingly until the third round. If Guida wasn't so aggressive and only cared about getting the victory, he could've cruised to a decision victory.

Huerta thinks Florian will be a "cakewalk" and thinks he'll never lose again. He and the UFC apparently have bought into the hype they created by feeding him lower level talent and featherweights. KenFlo will bring him back to earth and the skill disparity will be apparent.

 

[sleung]

remember that Huerta trains at the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy with real wrestlers like Brock and Sean Sherk

the club is a bunch of wreslters turned MMA fighters with a strong emphasis on wrestling

his wrestling will be better than Florians

technically watch Huerta's striking. I like his combos which are crisp. Watch the way Huerta checks both his punches and kicks. When he checks his kicks he does raise his check that high and he tucks in his elbows very good.

when Florian kicks he tends to lean back to far and than throw the kick

if he does not connect or if a fighter chekcs his kicks watch for straight right hand followed by left hook

also when Florain thorws standing elbows he leans too far and u can weave and throw hooks

 

[turbozed]

Where you got - 130 mate ? Damn 5dimes has - 155 .

BetUS opened this line a week before everyone else at -130.

 

[JoshKnows46]

Disagree with almost everything in that writeup. Huerta's wrestling and striking are overrated. And Huerta is more a product of UFC hype than Florian by a vast margin. Huerta's only good win was Guida, and he was getting beat pretty convincingly until the third round. If Guida wasn't so aggressive and only cared about getting the victory, he could've cruised to a decision victory.

Huerta thinks Florian will be a "cakewalk" and thinks he'll never lose again. He and the UFC apparently have bought into the hype they created by feeding him lower level talent and featherweights. KenFlo will bring him back to earth and the skill disparity will be apparent.

Agree Completly

Best of luck, you wont need it :drink:

 

[turbozed]

Small scalp available on this fight:

Florian -140 at Sportsbook.com
Huerta +155 at 5Dimes

 

[turbozed]

bumping this thread for discussion. anyone hear any news about either fighter re: injuries, etc?

 

[Rambo]

huerta is down to +140 at 5dimes now.

 

[sleung]

honestly forget about betting i want Huerta to win just becuase of what he went through as a kid and growing up.

 

[Rambo]

honestly forget about betting i want Huerta to win just becuase of what he went through as a kid and growing up.

yea i to watched that ufc special at 11 tonight. i was rooting for him before but now i really want him to win. kenny is a good guy too.

 

[turbozed]

Huerta seems like a great guy and he's always exciting to watch. Still, if I had to pick between him and my money, I'd go for the latter.

Even if he loses, he still makes money and comes home to Arianny that night. I think he's been rewarded enough

 

[turbozed]

My other plays:

1u on Fitch +285
1u on Gamburyan -330

 

[Mr.Parlay]

On Ken Flo!!!

Go Kenny!

:machinegu:machinegu:machinegu

 

[turbozed]

winner winner. Great game plan by kenny taking advantage of huertas aggressiveness and pickin him apart. He had huerta swinging at air

 

[Mr.Parlay]

War Florian

 

[turbozed]

Plays posted here:
2-4
11.5u wagered
+2.05u

Erased the terrible performance from UFC 86 at least.