FTR & Bill,
You're fighting a huge under ump in a early start, but Bell's last 10 have been just 4-5-1 (O/U). He was behind the plate for the recent football game between the Red Sox and the Rangers (19-17). Gotta wonder if the guy widens the zone up a bit after suffering through a game like that---which was almost 4 hours long. Granted, you don't have great pitchers on either side but each starter is capable of a quality start and neither team is tearing the cover off the ball.
I'd have to lean under in this one. BOL.