KC -1 @ OAK (Is this a trap game?)

[PrinceoftheCity]

Seems like KC should 100% beat Oakland, everyone is on KC, don't see anyone picking OAK or giving them a chance.

Reid is 15-2 off byes SU, seems like a lock


worth putting entire bankroll on KC money line? Everyone seems confident this is a lock of all locks... please educate me on why this could possibly not cover?

 

[tar_heel_in_sc]

Where have you seen everyone on KC? This forum? I honestly haven't gone through the threads so I don't know.

 

[NFLTrends]

Seems like KC should 100% beat Oakland, everyone is on KC, don't see anyone picking OAK or giving them a chance.

Reid is 15-2 off byes SU, seems like a lock


worth putting entire bankroll on KC money line? Everyone seems confident this is a lock of all locks... please educate me on why this could possibly not cover?

You used the word "lock"

 

[cashflow50]

I'm on the raiders

 

[In2ition]

My favorite pick so far this year

 

[tulah]

I Love KC tomorrow

 

[shibbets]

KC is a lock bruh

 

[chonce]

It is funny. I see a lot of people say this line looks like a trap for the opposite reason. On ESPN's Behind the Bets podcast one guy said he was taking Oakland even though "the line looks too easy."

Oakland has been winning and playing at home. I think the line is about right. I like KC in the game. I don't think there is an oveewhelming consensus for one team. Oakland is at home in a divisional round and just needs to win.

Like I said, I am on KC but I never felt that I was being baited.

 

[chonce]

As far as educating why it couldn't cover: I can't even comprehend the question. Oakland is a home dog with a 4-1 record and a + 7 point differential. KC is 2-3 with a -11 point differential. That is a small sample size (and I am on KC) but nothing about this game seems to easy to me.

 

[chonce]

Sorry I was going on memory, my numbers are off sligtly (But the point stands).

Oak: 4-1 Points for: 142; Points Against 137 (+5)

KC: 2-2 Points for: 83; Points Against 92 (-9).

So the point stands. I think if KC wasn't coming off a bye the line would be OAK as a slight fav. And i would probably guess Oakland is getting more public money. They are a popular public team at 4-1 with marketable players (Carr, Cooper, Mack, Crabtree etc...)

 

[ThaDude]

Raiders have won coin flip games every week and have one of the worst defenses (statistically) in the league so far. Reid is very strong off bye and Chiefs were embarrassed the last time out so they likely worked pretty hard over the time off. Linesmakers have a lot of respect for Reid off bye so they make Oakland a weak favorite and welcome early Oakland money if the bettors want. Early bettors are aware this is a good spot for KC so they gobble up the point and move the line the other way.

As crazy and stupid as some of these syndicates and steam chasers are I may be holding an Oakland +3.5 ticket by kick today. Value is gone from KC already IMO.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Sorry I was going on memory, my numbers are off sligtly (But the point stands).

Oak: 4-1 Points for: 142; Points Against 137 (+5)

KC: 2-2 Points for: 83; Points Against 92 (-9).

So the point stands. I think if KC wasn't coming off a bye the line would be OAK as a slight fav. And i would probably guess Oakland is getting more public money. They are a popular public team at 4-1 with marketable players (Carr, Cooper, Mack, Crabtree etc...)

Two sites show the Chiefs at 60%.............so they are the somewhat public team (probably in part due to the BYE angle everyone knows about that happens to be 3-4 ATS last 7, 4-3 SU, obviously a big winning streak before the last 7 which contributes to the overall sampling size many quote)

 

[WormyPix]

The sites I look at have OAK as the public fav, but sharps seem to be on KC because the line is moving in their direction. Usually this means the "whale" money is on KC, yet small bettors are on OAK.

I also see a handful of prognosticators predicting an OAK win due to KC's weakness against the pass. But OAK is fairly weak @ hm & do not win back to back gms often. We'll see, but I'm definitely on KC.

 

[chonce]

Two sites show the Chiefs at 60%.............so they are the somewhat public team (probably in part due to the BYE angle everyone knows about that happens to be 3-4 ATS last 7, 4-3 SU, obviously a big winning streak before the last 7 which contributes to the overall sampling size many quote)

I looked at 3 or 4 different sites (I don't really know who to trust. One had Oak as a 54 percent consensus. ANother had KC at 54. And another had KC at 57

So I didn't see 60, but in any event I don't think consensus is all that statistically relevant if the ticket count is 6-4. Obviously knowing the actual cash that is bet would be helpful.

But everytime I ask around for trust-worthy consensus sites most people tell me to just ignore them (SportsBook Review, Wunderdog etc..). I guess a site like Covers is just contest picks, not actual money. So that is of limited utility.

And I know the "bye" stat sticks out to betters, but so does (as simple as it sounds) ones place in the standings. 4-1 says something to a lot of people.

I am also wondering if OAK's homefield advantage will be messed with at all, since it was today that their owner laid out a 2-year timeline for potentially moving.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

As far as educating why it couldn't cover: I can't even comprehend the question. Oakland is a home dog with a 4-1 record and a + 7 point differential. KC is 2-3 with a -11 point differential. That is a small sample size (and I am on KC) but nothing about this game seems to easy to me.

Yes, should be an interesting game hopefully...........Some are probably like no way the Raiders can go 5-1 (its the Raiders, they suck) and no way Santa Claus is gonna be below .500 after a Bye.......So yes I see the public logic..........Hopefully, its a competitive game as I have Raiders +7.5 in second and final leg of a teaser so hopefully they show up and at least make it competitive....Best of luck....

 

[chonce]

Yes, should be an interesting game hopefully...........Some are probably like no way the Raiders can go 5-1 (its the Raiders, they suck) and no way Santa Claus is gonna be below .500 after a Bye.......So yes I see the public logic..........Hopefully, its a competitive game as I have Raiders +7.5 in second and final leg of a teaser so hopefully they show up and at least make it competitive....Best of luck....

Yes, however it shakes out it is a compelling matchup. If the Raiders win, they will be 5-1, and Denver looks pretty mortal all of a sudden. And they will have a 3-game lead over KC, plus the tie-breaker as of now. So big division game. Fuck, it may (literally) be a coin flip that decides it.

 

[The Guesser]

THe Only reason this line isn't Oak -3.5 or more is the Andy Reid off the bye record. That is getting pumped to shit, and that's why it opened low, and has moved to KC. The Chiefs have done nothing this year to justify being a Favorite at Oakland. But that trend is a powerful one, it's not one of trends that's largely irrelevant, and KC got very healthy over the bye.

 

[Biz]

Reid just 3-3 last 6 off a Bye.

Agree Oakland should be favored by a FG, at least according to the Power Ratings KC being hammered due to Reid's long tern Bye record, KC's strong ATS record at Oakland (10-3 last 13), Oakland a poor 2-8 at home under Del Rio. As mentioned KC also got time to heal up.

Raiders defense has to catch up to them at some point. Really hoping Oakland can get a win today, but I'll just have to root. No bet for me.

 

[Zodiac]

The confidence brewing in Oakland is real, and exciting to watch. I am well aware of the statistics behind Andy Reid's success following bye weeks. This Raiders team doesn't care. These Raiders have no quit in them, and they are starting to believe in themselves which is scary. When I capped this game I looked for the biggest matchup advantage and disadvantage facing both teams. Carr and the Raiders schematically throw the ball more to the short / middle right side of the field. So far this season the chiefs are one of the worst teams in terms of defending that area of the field. When teams go short right side of the field 1-7 yards opposing teams are 32-44 73% for 322 yards. Carr and the Raiders are hitting over 65% to that area on the field and I expect that Oakland will test the chiefs in that area early.

The Raiders also have a trio of RB's that compliment themselves nicely within this west coast offense. Kansas City relies big on generating a pass rush to shut down opposing teams. Derek Carr gets the ball out very quick and he is the least sacked QB in the league I believe. Kansas City's main matchup advantage has to be their run game. Chiefs run the back very well outside of the tackles. The Raiders giving up nearly 7 yards per carry this season on off tackle runs. KC also has had an extra week to prepare and that certainly gives them an advantage. A bit of added incentive for Oakland is that a win puts Oakland out in 1st by 1.5 games.

Ive went back and forth on this a ton. I'm gonna listen to some advice I heard one time. In the NFL, Buy on bad news and sell on good news. I think the extra time spent dissecting the raiders in the bye week will give KC a schematic advantage that should see KC off to a fast start. The Raiders won't quit, and you can be sure this will be a close game. I'm a virtual pickem, I'll buy on the chiefs -1.

Oakland 20 KC 23

 

[MMUSH]

I was really high on KC for the following reasons:
Dont have the stats in front of me but I've read that Oakland has been out gained in every game this season by its opponent.
KC last game was a unbelievably big embarrasment in the prime time game in front of the nation.
KC coming off bye.

im the first to say that all means little. Del Rio and oak are ballsy and win.

i went from putting a big play on KC to a normal play just because it seems like everyone is on KC and it's starting to smell funny. But I'm still on KC.
Hope this helps. Good luck