Today’s Most Undervalued Team
Giants
Dave Robert’s two run error cost me an 8-0 night last night. However, I have no problem going right back on the Giants, as there is not a team today trading more below their intrinsic value. I did not expect linesmakers to open this game any different than what they did, nor did I expect many value bettors to jump on the Giants and bid their price up. However, there exists a lot of hidden value on this slumping ball club in this game. Lowry does have his downfalls. His propensity to walk a lot of batters and get himself in early inning jams puts him in the stretch all too often and forces him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. His inability to put forth solid starts on the road makes him a one dimensional home pitcher. His flyball tendencies make him liability in small parks. His propensity to nibble around the plate makes him vulnerable against veteran/patient lineups that do not chase. However, not one of these liabilities should come into play in this game, as he pitches in his spacious home park against a young and aggressive lineup that has struggled hitting the changeup all season. Lowry has once again been dominant at home this season, coming into today’s game with a sub three home ERA, which includes his last start against the Yankees where he allowed just one run and two hits. Lowry has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, especially in his home starts. Although he has yet to face them at home this season, his last two home starts against them were both shutout performances. Lowry’s increased velocity on his fastball has once again made him a dominant force against left handed hitters, as they are batting well under .200 against him this season. This does not bode well for a team that has a few dangerous hitters from the left side. This will also put more pressure on the Diamondbacks right handed hitters. Only two of their right handed batters have at least eight at bats against Lowry, and come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him, while the remaining right handed hitters have predominantly struggled against finesse pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks are far less potent against southpaws and less productive away from home. Although Lowry has not been eating up a lot of innings in most of his starts, the aggressive style of the Diamondbacks hitters should allow him to not accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to the more patient lineups he faces. The addition of Messenger adds needed depth to the Giants bullpen, and makes them a decent unit.
There is not a more deflated ERA in baseball than Davis’s 4.16 this season, as his WHIP of 1.72 is usually accompanied with an ERA well in the fives. Last month, he was supporting an ERA in the three’s with his high WHIP, and a slowdown was imminent. Davis’s six plus ERA this month is more of an indicator of his true worth, as he could only get out of so many jams that his high walk total puts him in. The last couple of weeks he has been working hard in cutting down his walk total, a deficiency that he seems to have accomplished a bit. However, it came with a price, as he has been much more hittable in his last two outings, allowing 19 hits in just ten innings of work. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has really struggled in this park. Their appears to be a mental deficiency of pitching in his home town that makes him try too hard, as it has shown with his presence on the mound as well as his numbers. The Giants have veteran hitters that will not chase Davis out of the zone, and have three hitters with solid lifetime success against him. Davis’s high pitch count early in games does not make him a candidate to go deep in this one. Although the Diamondbacks underbelly of their bullpen has pitched well, they have a couple front end pitchers that are known to struggle against the Giants.
Giants
Dave Robert’s two run error cost me an 8-0 night last night. However, I have no problem going right back on the Giants, as there is not a team today trading more below their intrinsic value. I did not expect linesmakers to open this game any different than what they did, nor did I expect many value bettors to jump on the Giants and bid their price up. However, there exists a lot of hidden value on this slumping ball club in this game. Lowry does have his downfalls. His propensity to walk a lot of batters and get himself in early inning jams puts him in the stretch all too often and forces him to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. His inability to put forth solid starts on the road makes him a one dimensional home pitcher. His flyball tendencies make him liability in small parks. His propensity to nibble around the plate makes him vulnerable against veteran/patient lineups that do not chase. However, not one of these liabilities should come into play in this game, as he pitches in his spacious home park against a young and aggressive lineup that has struggled hitting the changeup all season. Lowry has once again been dominant at home this season, coming into today’s game with a sub three home ERA, which includes his last start against the Yankees where he allowed just one run and two hits. Lowry has dominated the Diamondbacks throughout his career, especially in his home starts. Although he has yet to face them at home this season, his last two home starts against them were both shutout performances. Lowry’s increased velocity on his fastball has once again made him a dominant force against left handed hitters, as they are batting well under .200 against him this season. This does not bode well for a team that has a few dangerous hitters from the left side. This will also put more pressure on the Diamondbacks right handed hitters. Only two of their right handed batters have at least eight at bats against Lowry, and come into today’s game a combined 3 for 21 against him, while the remaining right handed hitters have predominantly struggled against finesse pitchers this season. The Diamondbacks are far less potent against southpaws and less productive away from home. Although Lowry has not been eating up a lot of innings in most of his starts, the aggressive style of the Diamondbacks hitters should allow him to not accumulate as high of a pitch count compared to the more patient lineups he faces. The addition of Messenger adds needed depth to the Giants bullpen, and makes them a decent unit.
There is not a more deflated ERA in baseball than Davis’s 4.16 this season, as his WHIP of 1.72 is usually accompanied with an ERA well in the fives. Last month, he was supporting an ERA in the three’s with his high WHIP, and a slowdown was imminent. Davis’s six plus ERA this month is more of an indicator of his true worth, as he could only get out of so many jams that his high walk total puts him in. The last couple of weeks he has been working hard in cutting down his walk total, a deficiency that he seems to have accomplished a bit. However, it came with a price, as he has been much more hittable in his last two outings, allowing 19 hits in just ten innings of work. Davis has never been as effective on the road, and has really struggled in this park. Their appears to be a mental deficiency of pitching in his home town that makes him try too hard, as it has shown with his presence on the mound as well as his numbers. The Giants have veteran hitters that will not chase Davis out of the zone, and have three hitters with solid lifetime success against him. Davis’s high pitch count early in games does not make him a candidate to go deep in this one. Although the Diamondbacks underbelly of their bullpen has pitched well, they have a couple front end pitchers that are known to struggle against the Giants.