Today’s Best Game
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Twins Intrinsic Value: -128
Twins Consider Betting Price: -115
Tigers Intrinsic Value: +128
Tigers Consider Betting Price: +148
Comment:
You know you are in for a quality match when both pitchers combined have been underdog just twice all season. In fact, although public money had temporally shied away from Santana in recent starts due to his misperceived slowdown, today will mark the first time Santana has been underdog in nearly 50 starts. Although public money on Santana since the open has taken a good share of the value away from the Twins, in my opinion, they still warrant a play. Santana has returned to dominant fashion in his last three outings in which he has allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Although his recently increased fly ball ratio still has not returned to regulatory, his well hit ball ratio has actually settled below career norm in recent outings, offsetting the potential risk an increased fly ball rate against a power lineup like the Tigers. Santana’s dominating changeup and disparity of pitches is not a novelty for this division team in the Tigers, but it is still a challenge. Santana has put forth quality starts in both outings against them this year, and produced solid numbers against them last year as well. Although it is rare to have three hitters in a lineup that have had the upper hand against Santana, the Tigers have such. More importantly, these three hitters, Palanco, Sheffield, and Ordonez have the leverage of batting in sequence, magnifying the embedded advantage over Santana. However, neither Sheffield nor Ordonez have been a power threat in recent series, while Polanco has not been terribly effective against southpaws this season. This increases the chances of forcing this Tigers advantage in manufacturing mode, and forcing role hitters who have not had success against Santana in more important roles. Santana is also backed by the best bullpen in the American League, and a bullpen that has had past success against this Tigers lineup. This should allow the Twins to have the pitching edge throughout the game. The Tigers have once again not been a terribly effective at home this year, as the ballpark dimensions actually counter the Tigers strengths at the plate.
Verlander is a dominant pitcher in his own right, but a pitcher that has been overachieving a bit for a season and a half now. His propensity to lack command, walk a high rate of batters, and his negative Delta H show that he is a bit more of a liability on the mound than most pitchers supporting a sub three ERA. Although June has been his most dominant month this season, last year showed he was prone to dead arm and wearing down late in the season, making his also a prospect having put forth his best stuff already this year. His increased walk rate this month is also a magnified liability against a Twins lineup that will not only make you throw strikes, but makes the most of their walks given. The Twins handed Verlander his worst home start this season, where he lasted only three innings and allowed eight hits during that span. The fact that Verlander has not been as effective against his division compared to other teams this season shows that he carries an embedded advantage against lineups that do not have a lot of experience against him, which is simply not the case for the Twins lineup. Verlanders increased pitches per inning does not bode well for the Tigers as their bullpen has now become a liability.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Twins Intrinsic Value: -128
Twins Consider Betting Price: -115
Tigers Intrinsic Value: +128
Tigers Consider Betting Price: +148
Comment:
You know you are in for a quality match when both pitchers combined have been underdog just twice all season. In fact, although public money had temporally shied away from Santana in recent starts due to his misperceived slowdown, today will mark the first time Santana has been underdog in nearly 50 starts. Although public money on Santana since the open has taken a good share of the value away from the Twins, in my opinion, they still warrant a play. Santana has returned to dominant fashion in his last three outings in which he has allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings of work. Although his recently increased fly ball ratio still has not returned to regulatory, his well hit ball ratio has actually settled below career norm in recent outings, offsetting the potential risk an increased fly ball rate against a power lineup like the Tigers. Santana’s dominating changeup and disparity of pitches is not a novelty for this division team in the Tigers, but it is still a challenge. Santana has put forth quality starts in both outings against them this year, and produced solid numbers against them last year as well. Although it is rare to have three hitters in a lineup that have had the upper hand against Santana, the Tigers have such. More importantly, these three hitters, Palanco, Sheffield, and Ordonez have the leverage of batting in sequence, magnifying the embedded advantage over Santana. However, neither Sheffield nor Ordonez have been a power threat in recent series, while Polanco has not been terribly effective against southpaws this season. This increases the chances of forcing this Tigers advantage in manufacturing mode, and forcing role hitters who have not had success against Santana in more important roles. Santana is also backed by the best bullpen in the American League, and a bullpen that has had past success against this Tigers lineup. This should allow the Twins to have the pitching edge throughout the game. The Tigers have once again not been a terribly effective at home this year, as the ballpark dimensions actually counter the Tigers strengths at the plate.
Verlander is a dominant pitcher in his own right, but a pitcher that has been overachieving a bit for a season and a half now. His propensity to lack command, walk a high rate of batters, and his negative Delta H show that he is a bit more of a liability on the mound than most pitchers supporting a sub three ERA. Although June has been his most dominant month this season, last year showed he was prone to dead arm and wearing down late in the season, making his also a prospect having put forth his best stuff already this year. His increased walk rate this month is also a magnified liability against a Twins lineup that will not only make you throw strikes, but makes the most of their walks given. The Twins handed Verlander his worst home start this season, where he lasted only three innings and allowed eight hits during that span. The fact that Verlander has not been as effective against his division compared to other teams this season shows that he carries an embedded advantage against lineups that do not have a lot of experience against him, which is simply not the case for the Twins lineup. Verlanders increased pitches per inning does not bode well for the Tigers as their bullpen has now become a liability.
