John Deere Classic

[OTK]

Buick Open: 4-1 (+2.70 units)
AT&T National: 6-6 (-1.26 units)

Overall Record: 10-7 (+1.44 units)

Kenny Perry (-155) vs Zach Johnson - 72 holes

Tom Lehman (-125) vs Steve Marino - 72 holes

DJ Trahan (-110) vs Jonathon Byrd - 72 holes

Lucas Glover (-125) vs Jonathon Byrd - 72 holes

Chad Campbell (-135) vs Ryan Moore - 72 holes

Aaron Baddeley T10 (+208)

Jon Mills to not play in Round 3 (+130)


Pretty weak field this week. Most of the plays are fades expect for the Perry play. He is just the best player in the field and I think -155 is a great price for him to just have to beat one player.

Good luck.
​

 

[abcs]

Why do you like Badds? And dont like Mills?

 

[OTK]

Badds is kind of a feel play since he really doesn't have a great history at this course, but he'd be my pick to win it all this weekend. He has a solid game is a very good putter. As long as he keeps his driver accurate he should be fine.

I'm just not a big fan of Mills. He didn't make the cut the last time he played this coarse (I think it was in '06), and I also think that was his only time playing this event, but I'm not sure about that. I think there's a good chance he finishes near the bottom, so at +130 I'll take a chance, especially when a score like -2 could not make the cut.

 

[abcs]

I would bet the house on Kenny Perrys 3 ball matchup vs lowery and triplett..

If the line is at -150 or better than thats a complete steal

 

[OTK]

I haven't seen any of those matchups released yet, and I think they're usually just for the first round. You see that bet at any book yet?

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i think youre wrong going against byrd.

 

[OTK]

I understand why you say that. He has had a lot of success here and is the defending champion, but he hasn't been playing well lately, and I think both Trahan and Glover have a good chance at finishing in the top 10 this weekend. I was only going to fade him if I had the right matchups, and I really felt as though there were two good matchups.

 

[abcs]

<table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"><td valign="top" width="120">7/10/2008 7:09 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">3 Ball 18 holes only, most birdie is use for tie breaker.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="55" align="center">1301</td> <td width="300">Kenny Perry </td> <td width="65"> -160 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="55" align="center">1302</td> <td width="300">Steve Lowery </td> <td width="65"> +275 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="55" align="center">1303</td> <td width="300">Kirk Triplett </td> <td width="65"> +350 </td> <td width="200"></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[TOK]

Do you still like it for first 18 holes?

 

[OTK]

That looks like a good bets abcs. Zach Johnson will probably finish ahead of both those guys. The only thing I don't like is with bets like that it just takes one bad round for me to lose when he could play great the other three rounds to catch up and win.

TOK- Yeah I would still like these plays for the first 18 holes, but I like them more for the entire tournament.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

I understand why you say that. He has had a lot of success here and is the defending champion, but he hasn't been playing well lately, and I think both Trahan and Glover have a good chance at finishing in the top 10 this weekend. I was only going to fade him if I had the right matchups, and I really felt as though there were two good matchups.

at second look , you might be right... unless byrd can find some form on a course he likes , he will probably not play well at all..

i like ryan moore to not make the cut at + 150 as well as shigeki to miss the cut at + 125 . he is having a horrible year and missed the cut here the last 2 years

 

[abcs]

Good round by badds

 

[OTK]

Yeah, wow did Badds ever turn it around after a bad first round. He was +2 with like 4 holes remaining yesterday tied for 115th, and then he gets back to even and destroys the course today.

Byrd is playing much better than I though, and is in good position to win both of the matches I faded him in. The other three (Lehman, Perry, Campbell) are all leading though, so if I can go 3-2 in matchups and take just one of the prop plays it would be a good weekend. Mills will most likely make the cut. It looks like I'll need a 73 or worse out of him today.

 

[abcs]

Kenny Perry is really fun to watch when hes hot.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i think youre wrong going against byrd.

i knew my first instincts were correct here...

 

[abcs]

i knew my first instincts were correct here...

The glover match isnt over yet..

 

[abcs]

Nice start by Zach.

 

[abcs]

Bubba to win 30/1
Chris Riley to win 150/1
Brad Adamonis 200/1
Brenden Pappas to win 300/1 <-- 28/1 top 10

This field is like a nationwide event.. what a joke. Just guesses on the long outrights. Pappas is playing well, just monday qualified also.

Id stay away from Sean O Hair, he seemed hesitant about his game in his press conference today

Look at that tip that i posted at another site..

 

[OTK]

0-4 so far this weekend, but Campbell and Perry are each up by 10+ strokes, so it looks like 2-4. If Badds can climb into the top 10 tomorrow it can save the weekend and I'll be close to breaking even. Might look at some 4th round plays tomorrow if there's anything I like. If I can get Perry at even money to win the tournament I'll take it.

 

[OTK]

Look at that tip that i posted at another site..

Nice picks. Adamonis would be a huge cash if anyone followed and played it.