Joe Q. Public -- Who IS He, Exactly?

dimeplayersonly · Oct 23, 2003

public.........9-10 people that gamble fit into this catagory......

and yes you have varying degrees of "public" or "square" or the offensive term "sucker"

1. clueless..........bets favorite teams without regard to betting lines..

2. semi-clueless......... bets favorite teams........but says "damn thats alot of points"...

3. semi-educated clueless.......buys newsletters (gold-sheet)studies stats, trends ect. but still lays bad numbers.........

4. educated clueless.......does the above, but thinks parlays and teasers have value in certain situations...

5. SICK-GAMBLER CLUELESS.......believes laying -250 favorites have value.(lol.....please SICK, dont bother...just joking....maybe)

6. all the above can have one or more of these traits...........throw in bad money-management and you have Joe Q. Public..

on the subject............a "sharp" or "wise-guy" in my book is determined as some-one WHO IS TOUGH TO BEAT....PERIOD..

he might not win thousands........but he sure as hell wont LOSE thousands.......thats the bottom line......gl

dngu047 · Oct 23, 2003

I hope you were kidding about laying -250. Good value can exist at any price range.

dimeplayersonly · Oct 23, 2003

i was picking on SICK GAMBLER sort of.................obviously you are of the same school of thought on "value" that he his.........

myself, i do not find any value laying heavy chalk......thats just me.....

btw......not being rude but i dont need any examples of finding value at -4500

RobFunk · Oct 23, 2003

Joe Q. Public: man, father, athlete

TheGeneral+ · Oct 25, 2003

I see players who continue to wager more heavily on the sports that they always lose at. I think the sharper players have learned that it is wiser to lay low on the sports they lose at, take some time away from the notes, and go into their strong sports geared up and ready to do go. The emotions of gamblers can tell a bit about their experience. Observing that the less experienced players seem to get indulged in the early part of the game either celebrating when up or crying when down, disregarding that we win as many when trailing early as we do when we are up early.

sickgambler · Oct 25, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dngu047:
I hope you were kidding about laying -250. Good value can exist at any price range.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Dngu,

I can tell you are a knowledgeable kid, UNLIKE dimesplayeronly.

But seriously Dngu, tell this kid, he is starting to really believe he is right, and I am wrong about laying 250.. How can we explain to this kid that it don't matter how much you lay in a game, it's all about value.. Tell him Dngu, he won't listen to me, maybe he'll listen to you.. We've been arguing now about this for over 2 yrs, and I can't get it through his thick skull that it don't matter how much you lay, but whether it has value or not. He is totally avoiding laying 250 or more. Is this kid nuts, or what? I once asked him, what if a line is -2400, and the books price was only -250, I asked him if he would play it, and he said he would still NEVER lay the 250.. I swear, I am not making this up. Tell me this kid ain't nuts, dngu?

Hey dimesplayer, what if The Lakers are playing tomorrow my old high school basketball team, would you lay 250 on the Lakers, or not. Don't tell me. I know your answer. It's no, right?

Dimes, if a line is -325 and some book had a -250, why the hell would you not lay 250 for? That is a silly rule by you by not laying over 250. Don't forget Dimes, betting has NOTHING to do with how much you lay, but if a line has value or not.. Even if you have to lay 750, you lay it, if the consensus line is -1200.. There is nothing wrong with laying 750, as long as it has value.

Fishhead · Oct 25, 2003

kyhawk

dngu047 · Oct 25, 2003

sick, the rugby world cup is a great example of how value can exist even in very heavy favourites. For example, in one of the opening games England were playing some crappy team and England were quoted at a price of -10000. That's not a typo, -10000. The reason they weren't quoted at a lower price was because the bookmaker software couldn't go any higher.

Now here's the kicker. The bet was value, in fact great value. How do I know this? At some shops the other side was being offered at +99900. That's right +99900 have you ever seen a line so high? In fact the line would have been higher except the software doesn't go above +99900!! England would easily have won this 999 times out of 1000.

Now before you go getting all excited about a 89,900 cent scalp, it's roughly the equivalent of getting +102/+102.

Anyway back to the main point, value can be found at any price, and I mean ANY price.

dngu047 · Oct 25, 2003

Here's another quiz for all those who don't believe there is value at -250. Did any of you guys ever play Dungeons & Dragons as a kid? Anyway I did and I was a total nerd. In Dungeons & Dragons they have a 20 sided dice.

Let's suppose we have the following bet:

Will the next roll of the die fall exactly on the number 1:

No: -300
Yes: +300

(juice free, aren't I generous?)

There are only two possible outcomes to this bet.

(a) You take the "No" at -300 and admit that it's a value bet and that value can be found at lower prices.

(b) Or you take yes at +300, still refusing to admit that value can be found at lower price ranges.

If (a) then I rest my case. If (b) then please allow me to fly you first class down to my lovely city in Sydney, Australia. I will put you up at the finest hotel in the country and we will play this game until the issue is finally settled.