JM$ - Movin' Units NBA Thread

[jms]

Currently 4-3 YTD and sitting at 1.64 units. Slow start but not in the red, that's the main thing. With a slow card tomorrow, i'll focus on Portland vs. Denver and if time permits i'll look at Dal/NOH later.

<st1:city><st1lace>Portland</st1lace></st1:city> vs. <st1:city><st1lace>Denver</st1lace></st1:city>
<o> </o>
So what’s the story? <st1:city><st1lace>Portland</st1lace></st1:city> have won 3 straight (2 H and 1 A) while <st1:city><st1lace>Denver</st1lace></st1:city> have lost 3 out of their last 5 (2 A and 1 H).
<o> </o>
<st1:city><st1lace>Portland</st1lace></st1:city> Last 5 Average 191 (once over total of 198.5)
Portland Last 5 Away Ave 191 (once over total of 198.5)
Portland Last 5 Back End 203 (3 times over 198.5)
Portland Last 5 Front End 188 (none over total)
<o> </o>
<st1:city><st1lace>Denver</st1lace></st1:city> Last 5 Average 193 (once over total of 198.5)
Denver Last 5 Home Ave 197 (3 times over total of 198.5)
<o> </o>
Last game, total was 186.

All signs point to an Under. Regardless of playing Home or Away, Denver are averaging around 96 pts per game to the TB's 101. It's a toughie but my play for Thursday is an Under.

 

[jms]

Close call but the units are movin this way...

YTD 5-3 ... +3.55units

 

[akmaymn]

keep those units movin!!!

 

[jms]

Today i focus on Atlanta @ Charlotte...

The total is currently at 182.5 and i'm smacking 1 unit on the Over.

I am not deterred by this total at all. Charlotte might be a place where very little points are produced but i believe Atlanta have the goods to hit 100 pts in this one and grind out a win of between 7-9 points as dogs!

Cha ave. 95 pts in their last 5 home games.
Cha ave 180 pts total in last 5 home games. (2/5 games over 182.5)
Atl ave. 100 pts in last 5 away games.
Atl ave. 205 pts total in last 5 away games. (5/5 games over 182.5)

In Atl @ Cha meetings, the last 3 games have produced totals of 199, 201 and 198.

JMS Pick - Over 182.5 for 1 Unit.

YTD 5-3 and 2-0 in last 2 days.

 

[TopPicks]

So youre taking both the over and the under for a unit each> Good luck

 

[jms]

My bad. It is most definitely an Over and a typo. Post edited.

 

[TopPicks]

Got it, like the pick, Although Atlanta is my nemesis and I can't seem to win when on or against them. Do like them here though, as well as the over.

 

[jms]

For a team that's beaten the Bobcats thrice this season (2 H, 1 A) so far by 6, 4 and 5 points i'm surprised their dogs. Plus you got Raja Bell and Emeka carrying niggling injuries...

 

[jms]

YTD 6-3... i must say, that 2nd half was bs but it hit the over so im happy.

3-0 in the last 3 days.

 

[jms]

I'm 3-0 in the last 3 days and 6-3 YTD +2.46units.

Det/Atl
No plays on this one but Atl should take the W b/w 1-10 based on their stronger 2nd leg in a back 2 back record, home court advantage and their win last month in Detroit. I'd pick Over 184.5.
1 Unit Play - Over 184.5

Phil/Mem
Philly ave 98ppg away from home in their last 5 and 100ppg in their last 10. When scoring above 100, they've won 5/5. Current total is 191.5 and this has been eclipsed in each of their last 3 games (v NY, WAS and NJ). Mem has lost 2 in a row at home with their last home game played a week ago. Expect some points in this game courtesy of Philly and Mem will try match them. If picking a winner, Philly are 7-3 SU in 1st leg of a B2B compared to Mem who are 1-9 and also have lost on average by 14ppg in these games so take Phil ATS.
1 Unit Play - Over 191.5

OKC/NOH
No doubt NOH will win this one. Current line is a -12 which looks doable but in their last 10 home games, they've won 6 and in these 6 their ave margin is 11 skewed by the blowout of the Magic. Take that away, and the ave margin is 7. NOH ave 97ppg @ home in their last 5 while OKC ave 107ppg away. Highly unlikely they will produce 100+ at NO where opponents have been kept to below 100pts 16 out of last 20 games at 91ppg ave. Looking at total production, games in NO have surpassed the current 191.5 line only 5/10 games whereas OKC have surpassed this line in all of their last 10 away games with their opponents averaging way over 116ppg in this stretch. Interesting one here, OKC play the first of a B2B against the NOH today and in these games they are 9-1 ATS but 1-9 SU.
1 Unit Play - Over 189.5

GSW/MIL
Current total is 221.5. Very high in my opinion as GSW dont have the goods to produce points anymore ave 101ppg in their last 5 away games. Not only that, their injury list is an issue. Add to this, GSW's last 5 games have been 221 or under. The current toal has been surpassed only twice in last 10 GSW away games. The Bucks have also clamped down on their defence limiting NJ and WAS to under 100 pts after allowing 100pts plus in 7 consecutive home games at ave of 113. Both teams played yesterday and lost by 11+ margins. GSW will return back home after the Buck's game. GSW have won once this year in the last game of a 3+ game road trip. Bucks onslaught i reckon but the play is an under. Last fact for today, Bucks have surpassed 221 pts only once in their last 10 games and 4 out their last 20 games regardless of Home or Away.
2 Unit Play - Under 221.5

 

[Uno]

like that under in the golden state game but I might only play the under on Golden State. What worries me is how GS could get blown out by 20 and it goes over at the very end.

Good luck.

 

[jms]

$hithouse day, i went 2-2 and lost my 2 unit bet. I now stand at +0.43 units. I need to go back to one main bet a day.

 

[jms]

No write ups today but had a quick glance and saw value in this one - Phil/OKC Over 195.5. Philly on fire as of late playing away and likewise playing away in the 2nd leg of a back2back. When i mean on fire, at least 105 pts scored. You can count on OKC to score at least 90-100pts in this one so the Over is the play for 1 unit.

Final Score = Phil 106 OKC 101