Jimmyshivers ACC plays 10/18

[jimmyshivers]

7 - 2 +7.7 units

Feel like this could be a very big week; going to post my numbers against the early lines.


FSU
NCSU

My line NCS +10
Real Line NCS + 11.5


Lean: NCS

WF
UMD

My Line UMD +6
Their Line UMD + 1.5

Major Lean: WF

GT
Clemson

My Line Clemson -7
Their Line Clemson -2

Major Lean: Clemson

Miami
Duke

My Line Duke -1.5
Their Line: Miami -6.5

Major Lean: Duke


UNC
UVA

My Line UNC -4
Their Line UNC -5.5

Lean: UVA

VT
BC

My Line VT -5.5
Their Line BC -2

Major Lean VT

Initial analysis shows some major differences in opinion. I really dont get the line for BC or WF. I really feel that Clemson will bounce back pretty hard at home. I feel like I may have a few very big plays this week as I feel liike perception is still very far away from reality. This should be a big week for me as I feel like I have a good feel for each game. Plays are yet to come.

 

[mws]

Wow - I'm an ACC guy myself, and I completely with agree with you on every line except the Clemson line. That one's off the board for me.

 

[jimmyshivers]

What is your reasoning on the Clemson line. It really looked like they quit in their last game, but I think people will overreact to their failures. I think GT has looked very good but they have made the best of a soft schedule. Clemson has the speed to cover the option and they should run rampant at home. BOL to you though

 

[AR_23]

Clemson has disappointed beyond belief this year

 

[VicVega91]

Clemson's Offensive co-ordinator is pitiful. They are going against are a far superior coached team and should get their ass handed to them. Agree with a lot of your others. Good luck this week:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Clemson Tigers -2

On the heels of the Bowden firing, I am going to go ahead and pull the trigger on the Tiggers for this week. It was apparent during the game last week that they quit on Tommy, I felt that they never recovered from the Massacre in Atlanta vs the Tide. Now with Swinney at the helm the players should feel alot less pressure to save Bowden's ass and they can get back to playing. I think that Clemson has the speed to control the GT option and shut down the running lanes. On offense I like the talent that Clemson has and I expect the playcalling to pick up and become a little more agressive. They are the more talented team playing at home with a chip on their shoulder. This is a great spot for me to back the tigers.

Will have more plays later in the week. I think this line will go up so I'm getting it now, but I don't think this will be a very popular play. BOL

 

[mws]

What is your reasoning on the Clemson line.

I guess you understand now. A lot of uncertainty. Will be interesting to see how this plays plays out.

 

[Furmanski]

** Clemson Tigers -2

On the heels of the Bowden firing, I am going to go ahead and pull the trigger on the Tiggers for this week. It was apparent during the game last week that they quit on Tommy, I felt that they never recovered from the Massacre in Atlanta vs the Tide. Now with Swinney at the helm the players should feel alot less pressure to save Bowden's ass and they can get back to playing. I think that Clemson has the speed to control the GT option and shut down the running lanes. On offense I like the talent that Clemson has and I expect the playcalling to pick up and become a little more agressive. They are the more talented team playing at home with a chip on their shoulder. This is a great spot for me to back the tigers.

Will have more plays later in the week. I think this line will go up so I'm getting it now, but I don't think this will be a very popular play. BOL

Clemson +1 at my book now.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Clemson +1 at my book now.

Well I missed the boat on that one. I still like Clemson, and getting points at home I like that even more. May buy more later but now a 2-star play is plenty for me.

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Duke Blue Devils +5


Grabbing this one now as I think it will keep moving the other way. I believe the wrong team is favored in this game, as both teams have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one the advantage goes towards teh better coaching staff. I don't respect Shannon at all and I feel like Miami could be a good fade as they start to fall to the bottom of the Atlantic division. I will be grabbing some of the money line too, but the points are a nice bonus

 

[AR_23]

Miami definitely hasn't been so wonderful, and i have yet to remember when they last covered a game ugh

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on Duke...GL jimmy...

 

[jimmyshivers]

adding:

**Virginia Tech Hokies +3

I personally am not impressed with this BC team and I will go against them against any decent team that they face. I feel like they have played one of the softest schedules of any BCS team in the country at this point, and I feel like they are very much outcoached in this matchup. I watched them against an average at best NCS team and they nearly gave the game away despite having severly outgained and outplayed the wolfpack.

VT is not an elite team, but to win this game they do not have to be. BC is completely unproven and untested and I feel like this is a Hokies team that will probably win their half of the ACC. VT has been quietly winning big games all season, and if they hadn't of slipped against ECU they would be a top 10 team here and probably laying points. VT should win this game, so I will take the points and be happy.

/end drunken stat-less analysis

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Florida State Seminoles -11

* Over 48
Gonna be @ the game tonight cheering for the wolfpack, but I don't see them getting it done tonight. I hate taking a DD road favorite bt NCS is the kind of team that is frequently blown out; in the TOB era they seem to either win a tight game or get their ass kicked by at least two touchdowns. I see the latter happening tonight as the wolfpack D simply cannot contain the weapons that FSU brings into this game. Offensively they will be able to move the ball but I see a struggle to keep up in this game.

I expect this one to turn into a high scoring affair and I think FSU will put it away midway through the 4th quater and win by 14.

35-21 FSU

GL everyone still working on 1 or 2 more for this weekend

 

[jimmyshivers]

7-4 +5.5 units


*** Virginia Cavaliers +4.5

It looks like the annual Al Groh September swoon is complete, and UVA is back to the business of looking like a football team. They appear to have turned a new leaf since the Duke game, with the elimination of turnovers being a large part of this. They are getting much improved quarterback play. Their offense is now effective since Verica has gotten his feet under him and the running game has its top back on the field again.

Usually I discount the loss of one player in such a team sport as football, but the loss of Brandon Tate has the potential to be large for UNC. They have many talented weapons at wide out but are missing that game breaker who can stretch the field. This will be something for UVA to key on and maybe slide an extra man into the box to put pressure on the running game.

Carolina has been outgained in the last 3 games, but they are winning with big defensive and special teams plays. This is the mark of a good team, but as a bettor you cannot keep counting on those kind of big plays to bail you out of tight ball games. I feel that this game will be tightly contested with UVA pulling it out by a fg.

Also, UNC has not won in Charlottesville since 1981. This is not a factor to me in handicapping for this game but it could affect the energy level of the home crowd.

BOL everyone this is the final card for the weekend:

* FSU -11 (Loss)
* FSU 048 (Loss)
** Clemson (-2)
** Duke (5)
** VT (3)
*** UVA +4.5