Jibba's Sun MLB

[Jibba]

Favorites: 68-37 for +13.82 units
Underdogs: 23-17 +13.28 units
Total: 87-50 for +27.10 units

Run Lines: 1-2 -1.18 units

Lost a little under a unit yesterday. I just did 3 writeups for today and lost them so I'll try to recreate them the best I can.

San Diego -138: I love the way Peavy has been pitching and think he finally picks up his 4th win today. I really think he'll be able to dominate this young offense. While a lot of people are high on Scott Olsen this year, his 3-1 record is based on smoke and mirrors. With a WHIP of 1.81 and a BAA of .301, he won't be seeing that kind of success for long. He's basically had the benefit of a hot slugging offense, but for today at least, I think that changes. 1.38 units to win 1.

LA Dodgers +108: Fading the Braves with Davies pitching is still a solid play IMO. He's just a really bad pitcher. And he's facing a solid Dodgers team today that has been better on the road (10-5) than at home (8-7). Randy Wolf has lost 2 straight and has started falling back to earth, where he belongs. But he's still easily the better pitcher in today's matchup. And his biggest threat, Chipper Jones, is not starting today. 1 unit to win 1.08.

Milwaukee -1.5, +106: Anyone who's read my threads regularly knows how high I am on Sheets. And I think this is a great spot for the Brewers to keep on rolling at home (12-5 this year) as their ace starts to heat up. Armas goes back on the road today, where sporting an 18.90 ERA, a 3.30 WHIP, and a .469 BAA. I think this smoking hot Brewers team will hit him today, and hard. I will certainly not start making RLs a regular thing, but I have to go with them when I see them as good plays. Milwaukee has won 4 of 5 from the Pirates this year and I see no reason that won't continue with a big win today. 1 unit to win 1.06.

Will be back shortly with more. BOL to everyone.

 

[Jibba]

Cleveland -147: CC has been money this year and has owned the Orioles, going 4-0 against them in 8 starts with a 2.20 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a .186 BAA. I think the Tribe avoids losing 3 straight to the O's today, and it definitely helps that Burres will be making his first start of his career against one of the most dangerous offenses in the league. While the Indians may not have had much success thus far against lefties, I think they get it done against the lefty. 1.51 to win 1.

LA Angels -122: This looks and feels a lot like a public play, but even if it is I have to go with it. I hate going against BuffettGambler's only play of the day, and will probably pay for it, but I have to take value when I see it. I just don't believe Chicago is out of their funk yet and will fade them against one of the best home teams in the league. 1.22 units to win 1.

NY Yankees -139: Washburn is simply not a good pitcher on the road and I think the Yanks will take advantage in a big way.

Washington +133: Hill always puts up a good game in day games. Guzman is not a very good pitcher, so I'll take my chances. 1 unit to win 1.33.

NY Mets -107: The Mets just don't lose at Chase Field. I'm still waiting for the real Mike Pelfrey to show up and I think with the team playing well and with confidence, today is a good spot for it. Hernandez is completely hit or miss. You never know what you'll get with him, but he's got an uphill battle today against this offense. 1.07 units to win 1.

Sorry to get short at the end. Running out of time and have to be heading out soon. I like the Phils today but just can't bring myself to go against Chop's biggest play of the year. Like Lincecum a lot myself but not quite as much as he does. BOL to everyone on their cards today.

 

[trains40]

where did you get -139 on san diego?

 

[Jibba]

With Bonds potentially out of the lineup tonight, I have to make the Phillies a play.

Philadelphia -120: People can hype up Lincecum all they want. I agree. But Cole Hamels is also the real deal. And he's already proven it. 1.20 units to win 1.

I am also going to add a half a unit to LAD (+102), SD (-138), and Milwaukee -1.5 (+100). BOL to everyone.

 

[Jibba]

where did you get -139 on san diego?

Matchbook. Just got it again as -138. Right now the best line there is -139 and it's available up to $4,200.

Edit: Just to clarify, that was the price when it went off the board.

 

[Jibba]

Almost talked myself out of this one because of Greinke's success against the Tigers, but I have to go with the hot team.

Detroit +103: Detroit is playing great ball right now and I think they'll finish the sweep of the lowly Royals today. Unfortunately, not much time for a real writeup here. 1 unit to win 1.03.

Final card (with add ons at different price in some cases):

San Diego -138: 2.07 units to win 1.5.
LA Dodgers +108: 1.5 units to win 1.6.
Milwaukee -1.5, +106: 1.5 units to win 1.56.
Cleveland -147: 1.47 units to win 1.
LA Angels -122: 1.22 units to win 1.
NY Yankees -139: 1.39 units to win 1.
Washington +133: 1 unit to win 1.33.
NY Mets -107: 1.07 units to win 1.
Philadelphia -120: 1.20 units to win 1.
Detroit +103: 1 unit to win 1.03.

 

[Jibba]

Updated record, not including NYM and PHI:

Favorites: 72-38 for +17.10 units
Underdogs: 24-19 +11.81 units
Total: 87-50 for +28.91 units

Run Lines: 2-2 +0.38 units

5-3 on the day for a profit of almost 2 and a half units. A few tough losses today with LA (a 1.5 unit play) blowing a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th, LAA blowing a 3-0 lead in the 8th, and the Nats choking in the 9th and 10th. Any one of these ends differently and it was a very nice day. But that's the way it goes. I'm currently losing on the Mets in the bottom of the 7th. Pelfrey did finally show up, but Livan outpitched him. On the Phillies tonight as well. All the hype is on Lincecum, but I think Hamels steals the show. Reminds me somewhat of the King Felix - Dice K matchup. All the focus on the new star, and the other young gun comes up big. For now I'm leaving it as a regular 1 unit play, but I'm going to look into it more to see if it's worth a 1.5 for me. Hope everyone had good luck today.