Jibba's Friday MLB

[Jibba]

Money Lines:

Favorites: 139-81 for +26.87 units
Underdogs: 53-49 for +23.26 units
Total: 175-121 for for +50.13 units

Totals: 3-1 for 2.63 units

Run Lines: 8-8 for +1.61 units

Parlays: 1-2 for -1.97 units

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5-2 last night for +5.66 units. Hope to keep it going today. Have to get some work done before I can post any plays, but the Red Sox are an obvious play today. I'm actually laughing right now at the fact that I can get Boston at +108 at home against a team playing as badly as the Yankees. These fans are going to be crazy tonight, and I may put a little on Boston -1.5, +185. Also have current leans on the Giants, Braves, Pirates, Mets, Cards, Rockies, Jays, and Twins. Still a lot of work to do though. Should have plenty of time for writeups later, but just wanted to get my record updated and thread started. BOL to everyone on their plays.

 

[SonnySixKill]

Boston is +113 now on MB. Jibba, would like to hear why you are taking Duke over Wolf on the LAD/Pitt game, thax.

 

[ChestRockwell]

Wang's era at fenway is over 6

 

[Jibba]

Boston is +113 now on MB. Jibba, would like to hear why you are taking Duke over Wolf on the LAD/Pitt game, thax.

Yeah, gonna watch it a bit before locking in as I have noticed the lines slowly moving up. Some may say it's homerish, but that line just seems so off to me the way these teams are playing.

Not definite on Pittsburgh. My initial thoughts were that the Pirates should be a dog of about +120 or +125. That would mean that at the current price of +142, they're right around my range. But I don't want to give Duke too much credit or Wolf too little credit. Wolf doesn't seem to be slowing down so I'm going to give this one another long look. Neither team is playing great right now, but obviously the Dodgers are the far better team overall. Are you on LAD?

Chest Rockwell,

Yeah. He doesn't perform too well in Boston. Wakefield hasn't been good lately, and that's the one and only thing I see going in favor of the Yankees tonight. I could see this line maybe if it was in New York, but not in Boston.

 

[SonnySixKill]

Jibba, Duke is another Paul Maholm. His stats are horrible across the board, ERA of 5.55.

 

[Jibba]

Thing is though, Duke is actually much better than Maholm. While he still explodes way too often to be considered a solid starter, it's also no surprise when he pitches 6 or 7 very solid innings (something he's done 4 times in 10 starts).

It's more about Wolf for me, although like I said I may not be giving him enough credit if he has actually changed the direction of his career. Right now his BAA is about .50 points better than it was the previous two or three years and his WHIP is much improved as well. I just don't think he's as good as his stats lead us to believe. But he's played well against Pitt in the past and has been consistent up until this point, so I'll probably steer away from fading him until he gives me a good reason to fade him.

 

[Jibba]

Indians -1.5, +123: The Tribe is flat out playing better ball than the Tigers right now, and it's not particularly close. Injuries have really taken a toll on this Detroit team, as they are now missing the best pieces to their bullpen and possibly the left side of their infield for a second straight night (Inge is out, Guillen is questionable). They'll have Maroth going tonight, and despite his success in the past against the Indians, I do not see it continuing the way this team has hit at home this year (and to an extent, against lefties). He's been very prone to the long ball this year, and the Indians offense is too hot to not take advantage of that. After somehow winning Maroth's first 7 starts, that number is finally coming back down to Earth as Maroth's 8 hits and 4 runs over 5-6 innings (to go along with more BBs than Ks) just isn't cutting it anymore.

The way these two teams have been playing each other thus far this season, I don't see this game turning into a close match, which is why I settled on the run line in this one (every game between the two has been decided by more than one run). Fausto has many non-believers, but I'm not one of them. I really like this kid's stuff and have been on him quite a bit in his last 8 starts (6-0, 2.17 ERA during that span). As everyone knows, the Tribe has been money at home this year, and it's about time I got back on board rather than chasing a Tigers win. Detroit hasn't had Cleveland's number all season and I think that continues tonight. 1.5 units to win 1.85.

_______________________________________________________

The Boston line dropped just a bit. Not sure if I'm going to wait and see what happens with the line, or just take it at +110 and be happy.

 

[mulhs]

Hey Jibba,

Took a week or so off after a bad run. Looks like I should have hung around a bit longer. Nice to see you made a run to get back the losses. Thanks for yesterday, helped me get back in the flow of things again.

My two cents on the pitcher talk. Check the weather in that Boston game. To steal a line from buffet, his knuckle moves more the hotter it is.

As for Wolf, I've seen this for years, he has one great half and sucks in the other half. I am gonna stay with him until after the break and re-evaluate him at that point.

BOL

 

[Jibba]

Bluejays -138: The White Sox are just reeling right now. They can't score runs and lose games where their starting pitcher goes 9 and gives up only 2 hits. They just can't find a way to win, and it certainly doesn't help that Ozzie is blowing up again in the media. The White Sox have lost Vazquez's last 3 road starts (last 5 overall), and now have won only 2 of his last 10 road starts. The Jays have hit Vazquez pretty hard in the past, despite his success in 3 career starts in the Rogers Centre.

With the White Sox unable to score runs, seeing AJ Burnett tonight can't be good. Burnett has finally started to show a bit of consistency for the first time since he came to Toronto. And he's been almost unhittable at home this year aside from one bad start against the Tigers. It also can't help that Chicago just lost veteran Darin Erstad, who has always played well against the Jays (although I don't believe he's ever faced Burnett). Basically, the Jays and Burnett are finally starting to show signs of life, while the Chi Sox and Vazquez are slowly, but loudly thanks to Ozzie, disappearing. 2.07 units to win 1.5.

 

[Jibba]

Hey Jibba,

Took a week or so off after a bad run. Looks like I should have hung around a bit longer. Nice to see you made a run to get back the losses. Thanks for yesterday, helped me get back in the flow of things again.

My two cents on the pitcher talk. Check the weather in that Boston game. To steal a line from buffet, his knuckle moves more the hotter it is.

As for Wolf, I've seen this for years, he has one great half and sucks in the other half. I am gonna stay with him until after the break and re-evaluate him at that point.

BOL

Glad I could be of help. That's all I try to do here. Sorry to hear about the rough stretch. I've had my share as well. Best I can say is to focus as much as possible on money management, although I'm not trying to say that this isn't something you don't already know.

As for the weather, don't need to check as I live here. Hot and getting humid today. Likely to be in the mid to high 70s come game time. Possible thunderstorms tonight though. And it really wouldn't convince me to go the other way, or to stay away, no matter what the weather is. Boston is so much better than New York this year (or at very least right now), and with Giambi now out (not that it was needed), there's just no reason NY should be favored in Boston.

Thanks for the info on Wolf. Will definitely keep that in mind. BOL tonight.

 

[Jibba]

Braves/Cubs over 8.5, -122: Can't see a good reason for this line being so low, aside from possibly a public which still thinks Zambrano is one of the top pitchers in the game. While he may have some of the best stuff in the game, he clearly does not have it put together so far this season. Zambrano has been horrible at home this year where he is sporting a 7.39 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the other side is Kyle Davies and his 5.49 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .295 BAA on the road this year. There's a reason why Davies had an ERA of 8.38 last year. He's just not that good and prone to give up 7-8 runs on his own on any given day. These are two solid offenses and I can't see them staying under this number today. Also, last time these two pitchers faced off (April 18 in Atl), the Braves won 8-6. I see a similar game today. Better get the 8.5 fast if you want it though. While trying to put this in at -120 at VIP, they switched it to 9 on me. Had to take -122 at MB. 1.83 units to win 1.5.

 

[ChestRockwell]

i got it at 81/2 literally 30 seconds before it went to 9. Good call Jibba.

 

[Jibba]

i got it at 81/2 literally 30 seconds before it went to 9. Good call Jibba.

Good to hear man. I think we got a solid play with that one. Also looking at the AZ/NYM over 7.5. Webb is still prone to blowing up and Maine is no longer the wonderboy he was in his first 6 or 7 starts. That's no knock on him though, as I actually will probably end up playing the Mets tonight now that the line has dropped like 15 points. Not sure if I'll take this one though. It's at 8 on MB but 7.5 on VIP.

 

[cnote]

Good to hear man. I think we got a solid play with that one. Also looking at the AZ/NYM over 7.5. Webb is still prone to blowing up and Maine is no longer the wonderboy he was in his first 6 or 7 starts. That's no knock on him though, as I actually will probably end up playing the Mets tonight now that the line has dropped like 15 points. Not sure if I'll take this one though. It's at 8 on MB but 7.5 on VIP.

jibba tread light on this one. looks like no beltran, alou and green are and have been out...lineup not as stong without all those bats....not sure if delgado and wright can carry them

 

[a153]

Good to hear man. I think we got a solid play with that one. Also looking at the AZ/NYM over 7.5. Webb is still prone to blowing up and Maine is no longer the wonderboy he was in his first 6 or 7 starts. That's no knock on him though, as I actually will probably end up playing the Mets tonight now that the line has dropped like 15 points. Not sure if I'll take this one though. It's at 8 on MB but 7.5 on VIP.

Have a feeling tonights met lineup is going to be very bad. Chavez, Johnson and Gomez in the outfield that is 3 automatic outs.

 

[gabbana]

hey jibba i though to take that over in braves/cubs these two pitchers can give up run easly all depend on battlers to hit that ball. good luck today, let me know your thought about Padres and Angels.

 

[ChestRockwell]

jibba tread light on this one. looks like no beltran, alou and green are and have been out...lineup not as stong without all those bats....not sure if delgado and wright can carry them

yea looks like the pitcher got the best of Beltran covering first last night.

 

[Jibba]

Thanks for the opinions guys. Very good points about the Mets. Will stay away from the over. Still considering the Mets money line, but will go over it all again with a fine-toothed comb.

Gabbana,

I've been huge on the Padres all year. Just can't see paying -206 or more though. Nats have played tough lately. Don't particularly like paying a price like -124 to take a runline on a team that relies more on pitching than hitting, especially with Giles, one of their better offensive players, out of the lineup.

As for LAA, I hate to say it, but I lean toward the O's again. These lines are just absurd in my eyes. When teams are playing well, like the O's are, they can beat anyone on any given night. Even John Lackey. And that's from one of his biggest backers. No way would I pay -202 in that one, although I'm not sure I like the idea of pushing my luck on the O's after last night. I'm actually looking closely at the game and weighing the O's money line play against the LAA run line play. MB is giving about a $1.20 differential between the money line and run line. Getting the LAA offense -1.5 with Lackey on the mound at close to +120 is intriguing, although I haven't made my mine up yet. Try to stay away from run lines unless I really see solid value in them. Between Cleveland, Boston and this one, I may see enough value in three today though.

 

[Jibba]

Going to take it now and be done with it, rather than wait and risk that the line drops even further.

Red Sox +105: What is not to love about this line? We have a team that is rightfully 22-29 (10-16 on the road), playing on the road against a team that is 36-16 (18-8 at home), and they're a favorite? No matter how it turns out, and the Yankees can never be counted out of a game, this line is just ridiculous. The Sox have won 7 of their last 10 overall, and 9 of their last 12 at home. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 6 overall, and 8 or their last 12 on the road.

The Yankees will send Wang to the mound tonight, and although he's been one of their few pitchers to have any success this year, his history at Fenway is not good. He's in Boston in 4 starts with a 6.08 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and a .283 BAA. Additionally, NY will be without Giambi tonight. Although he hasn't been great this year, he's hurt the Sox pretty bad (.345 against Boston this year).

The Sox send Wakefield to the mound tonight to oppose Wang. Despite the fact that he's come back down to Earth a bit recently, he's still sporting an impressive 3.36 ERA this year, to go along with a 1.24 WHIP and a .227 BAA. Part of his regression may also have to do with the fact that he's pitched only one home game since April 23rd. That just happened to be against a hot hitting Detroit team that knocked him around pretty well. He actually pitched into the 8th in that one though before finally tiring. Anyway, the fans are goin to be crazy tonight in Boston. Arod is coming off a number of stupid controversies, and seeing as how he is typically easy to rattle, I think the fans will play a role in this one. Yankees are almost done and absolutely should not be favored here. 1.5 units to win 1.58.

Red Sox -1.5, +200: Got this about 5 minutes ago. My guess is that the line will hit this number again (down to +196 last I checked), so I am not making this official yet. Will wait until I see the number back on MB and then post it. But wanted to included the play with the Sox money line play. 1 unit to win 2 (but again, not currently official as the line is not available).

 

[SonnySixKill]

Any thoughts on the Mets, line was at -125 down to -104.

Great, Buffet is on Pitt.