Money Lines:
Favorites: 103-54 for +26.08 units
Underdogs: 33-30 for +11.76 units
Total: 130-83 for for +31.71 units
Run Lines: 3-4 for -0.17 units
Parlays: 0-3 for -2.97 units
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6-2 on my regular plays for +5.08 units last night. Yet another night where I couldn't resist the sucker parlay though, and it cost me 1.3 units of my winnings. So a grand total of +3.78 units.
Anyway, I think I'm going against the trend here and taking some solid NL teams in interleague play, and also the lone NL game. Added a bunch to these writeups from what I posted last night.
Pittsburgh -134: Pirates are hitting pretty well lately and the D-Backs are not. The Pirates are batting .273 over the past week, which is over .030 higher than their season average, and have a team OBP of .341 during that time. Over that same span, Arizona is batting .220 (28th in MLB over that span) with an OBP of .271 (dead last in MLB over that span). The Pirates send their ace to the mound, and he has been very impressive at home this year. I think he'll certainly make it tough for the D-Backs to break out of their slump.
Snell will face up against Doug Davis, who has been very solid on the road despite his 0-4 record away from home. PNC Park hasn't exactly been kind to him though. In his career over 8 starts (43 IPs), he's 2-3 in PNC with a 5.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and a .314 BAA. And a number of these Pirates have hit him pretty well. Jason Bay is 9 for 28 against Davis. Duffy is 4 for 9, Sanchez is 11 for 26, and Wilson is 14 for 42. Even Castillo has hit him, although he's just a mediocre 6 for 22. But I think that works in our favor, and is the exact opposite of Snell's opponents, who have basically never seen him. Very good shot for Davis to drop to 0-5 on the road tomorrow. 2.01 units to win 1.5.
NY Mets -105: Does the public think that Andy Pettitte can win this game on his own? Sure, he's 5-0 against the Mets with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts since the 2000 WS. And sure he's had great stuff so far this year. But there's a reason why the Yankees are 3-5 in games which Pettitte starts. Additionally, the Mets' big bats have had a lot of success against Pettitte (Delgado is 21 for 58 with 5 HRs and 16 RBIs, Beltran is 12 for 31, and Wright is 5 for 10).
Perez looked great in his last outing, so I don't see much of a pitching mismatch at all here. So all we're left with is two teams that just aren't comparable, unless you're going strictly by how they look on paper. The Mets are clearly the better team, and with the Yankees' troubles on the road this year, I can't see them pulling this one out. Plus, Damon may still be out and Reyes should be back for the Mets, who should be very rested after basically getting the day off yesterday. Fade the Yankees. 1.58 units to win 1.5.
Milwaukee -150: I've added a half play to this play at -146 since last night. Minnesota has looked horrible lately, having lost 7 of their last 8 while the Brewers and Capuano are itching to get things rolling again after getting whooped around a bit in Philly. Minnesota was money last year in interleague play at 16-2, but we're talking about a better Twins team than we see this year, especially with Mauer still out. They rely a lot on their pitching to win games for them, and this year they have yet to get it done. They also don't have a certain pitcher you may have heard of . . . Francisco Liriano, who was 2-0 against the Brewers last year with a 0.69 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a .128 BAA. They also won't have Johan going in this series. Just taking away these two completely changes what they did last year in interleague play. Liriano led MLB with 5 interleague wins (5-0 in 5 starts) and 43 Ks, while Santana, who led MLB in interleague ERA, was not far behind in wins with 3 (3-0 in 3 starts). That's half of their interleague wins. Now I think Boof is a solid pitcher and all, but no way can he fill the shoes of those two top notch SPs.
The public has started to fade the Brewers, which is a good time to hop back on board. Have people forgotten that they're 21-5 in their last 26 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite? The Brewers find ways to win the games they should be winning. And with Caps going tonight, they should continue that trend. Milwaukee is 7-1 in games he's started this year and I see that improving. 2.2 units to win 1.5.
San Francisco -104: Barry Zito returns to Oakland and finds a team that can't beat the Kansas City Royals. Oakland's offense has been horrible at home this year and Zito won't make things any easier. I know that the Giants were bad last year in interleague play, but Bonds is hitting this year and Zito is doing well enough keeping people off the bases, which is what I think you want to do against this struggly A's team. And even with San Fran's interleague troubles last year, they took 2 of 3 in Oakland and held them to 3 runs total in that 3 game series. 1.04 units to win 1.
May add to these as the day goes on after I give them another long look. Also have a lean on San Diego and LAA right now. I know, I know . . . bang the AL hard in interleague play right? Well, maybe in the past 2 years, but that's not the way it's always been. And I think we may see a reversion to seasons like 2002, 2003, and 2004. There are some extremely weak teams in the AL this year (KC, Texas, and Baltimore for starters, but then even some of the mediocre ones have looked horrible lately), and even the worst of the bunch in the NL, Washington, is playing good ball right now. Maybe I'll get burned for going against the trend, but I see a lot of value on the NL because it seems books are expecting all the money on the AL. BOL to everyone on their picks today.<!-- / message -->
Favorites: 103-54 for +26.08 units
Underdogs: 33-30 for +11.76 units
Total: 130-83 for for +31.71 units
Run Lines: 3-4 for -0.17 units
Parlays: 0-3 for -2.97 units
_________________________________________________
6-2 on my regular plays for +5.08 units last night. Yet another night where I couldn't resist the sucker parlay though, and it cost me 1.3 units of my winnings. So a grand total of +3.78 units.
Anyway, I think I'm going against the trend here and taking some solid NL teams in interleague play, and also the lone NL game. Added a bunch to these writeups from what I posted last night.
Pittsburgh -134: Pirates are hitting pretty well lately and the D-Backs are not. The Pirates are batting .273 over the past week, which is over .030 higher than their season average, and have a team OBP of .341 during that time. Over that same span, Arizona is batting .220 (28th in MLB over that span) with an OBP of .271 (dead last in MLB over that span). The Pirates send their ace to the mound, and he has been very impressive at home this year. I think he'll certainly make it tough for the D-Backs to break out of their slump.
Snell will face up against Doug Davis, who has been very solid on the road despite his 0-4 record away from home. PNC Park hasn't exactly been kind to him though. In his career over 8 starts (43 IPs), he's 2-3 in PNC with a 5.44 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and a .314 BAA. And a number of these Pirates have hit him pretty well. Jason Bay is 9 for 28 against Davis. Duffy is 4 for 9, Sanchez is 11 for 26, and Wilson is 14 for 42. Even Castillo has hit him, although he's just a mediocre 6 for 22. But I think that works in our favor, and is the exact opposite of Snell's opponents, who have basically never seen him. Very good shot for Davis to drop to 0-5 on the road tomorrow. 2.01 units to win 1.5.
NY Mets -105: Does the public think that Andy Pettitte can win this game on his own? Sure, he's 5-0 against the Mets with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts since the 2000 WS. And sure he's had great stuff so far this year. But there's a reason why the Yankees are 3-5 in games which Pettitte starts. Additionally, the Mets' big bats have had a lot of success against Pettitte (Delgado is 21 for 58 with 5 HRs and 16 RBIs, Beltran is 12 for 31, and Wright is 5 for 10).
Perez looked great in his last outing, so I don't see much of a pitching mismatch at all here. So all we're left with is two teams that just aren't comparable, unless you're going strictly by how they look on paper. The Mets are clearly the better team, and with the Yankees' troubles on the road this year, I can't see them pulling this one out. Plus, Damon may still be out and Reyes should be back for the Mets, who should be very rested after basically getting the day off yesterday. Fade the Yankees. 1.58 units to win 1.5.
Milwaukee -150: I've added a half play to this play at -146 since last night. Minnesota has looked horrible lately, having lost 7 of their last 8 while the Brewers and Capuano are itching to get things rolling again after getting whooped around a bit in Philly. Minnesota was money last year in interleague play at 16-2, but we're talking about a better Twins team than we see this year, especially with Mauer still out. They rely a lot on their pitching to win games for them, and this year they have yet to get it done. They also don't have a certain pitcher you may have heard of . . . Francisco Liriano, who was 2-0 against the Brewers last year with a 0.69 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a .128 BAA. They also won't have Johan going in this series. Just taking away these two completely changes what they did last year in interleague play. Liriano led MLB with 5 interleague wins (5-0 in 5 starts) and 43 Ks, while Santana, who led MLB in interleague ERA, was not far behind in wins with 3 (3-0 in 3 starts). That's half of their interleague wins. Now I think Boof is a solid pitcher and all, but no way can he fill the shoes of those two top notch SPs.
The public has started to fade the Brewers, which is a good time to hop back on board. Have people forgotten that they're 21-5 in their last 26 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite? The Brewers find ways to win the games they should be winning. And with Caps going tonight, they should continue that trend. Milwaukee is 7-1 in games he's started this year and I see that improving. 2.2 units to win 1.5.
San Francisco -104: Barry Zito returns to Oakland and finds a team that can't beat the Kansas City Royals. Oakland's offense has been horrible at home this year and Zito won't make things any easier. I know that the Giants were bad last year in interleague play, but Bonds is hitting this year and Zito is doing well enough keeping people off the bases, which is what I think you want to do against this struggly A's team. And even with San Fran's interleague troubles last year, they took 2 of 3 in Oakland and held them to 3 runs total in that 3 game series. 1.04 units to win 1.
May add to these as the day goes on after I give them another long look. Also have a lean on San Diego and LAA right now. I know, I know . . . bang the AL hard in interleague play right? Well, maybe in the past 2 years, but that's not the way it's always been. And I think we may see a reversion to seasons like 2002, 2003, and 2004. There are some extremely weak teams in the AL this year (KC, Texas, and Baltimore for starters, but then even some of the mediocre ones have looked horrible lately), and even the worst of the bunch in the NL, Washington, is playing good ball right now. Maybe I'll get burned for going against the trend, but I see a lot of value on the NL because it seems books are expecting all the money on the AL. BOL to everyone on their picks today.<!-- / message -->