Jibba's 2009 Baseball Picks

Jibba · Apr 7, 2009

Looking forward to a great season.

Brewers +150: 1 unit to win 1.5. Brewers are a much better team overall IMHO and the pitching mismatch doesn't count for as much in April. Plus, the Giants weak offense balances it out a bit anyways.

Tigers +102: 1 unit to win 1.02. After Halladay I'm not impressed with this Bluejays rotation. I'm also a believer in Edwin Jackson this year and expect a nice lopsided victory for the visitors tonight.

Red Sox -154: .78 units to win .50. I liked this better when it opened at a slightly lower number yesterday but will still play it for half a unit at this price. Boston should come out excited today and Beckett is finally healthy again.

I may add one more game but am going to wait on it and do a bit more research.

buffettgambler · Apr 7, 2009

Best of luck this season.

Looking at today's and tommorrow's Giants/Brewers line, and it appears the Giants are coming out of the gates as the most overvalued team in baseball. Go figure.

Jibba · Apr 7, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Best of luck this season.

Looking at today's and tommorrow's Giants/Brewers line, and it appears the Giants are coming out of the gates as the most overvalued team in baseball. Go figure.

I was thinking the same thing. Lincecum is amazing, but baseball is more than purely pitching matchups. I think Matt Cain's 15-30 record over the last 2 years (and his ~3.70 ERA) can vouch for that.

Anyway, it's great to see you. I looked around the web for you recently to see where/if you'd be posting your plays this year. I always enjoy your posts and hope to see you around Buffett. Best of luck!

CalvinTy · Apr 7, 2009

BOL, Jibba. I decided not to play the MIL/SF game because I wasn't sure what the line should be, especially with Lincenum pitching.

Nice to see you around, BG.

P.S. I see that Jibba replied already after BG's post.

* CalvinTy

Jibba · Apr 7, 2009

You too Calvin. Keeping an eye on your threads as I always this year. I liked your play on KC today but it didn't make my cut. Rough loss on that one but I don't doubt you'll get right back to winning. Best of luck this year man!

VenomousSanction · Apr 7, 2009

Jibbs! Good to see u again bro.. gl

Jibba · Apr 7, 2009

You too VS. Best of luck this year.

Mariners -103: 1.03 units to win 1. I thought the M's were a much better team than they showed last year. I also think Bedard will put up a solid season this year and he'll hopefully start tonight against a Twins lineup that shouldn't scare many pitchers.

Jibba · Apr 8, 2009

Nobody looks to start the season with a couple of fluke losses, but I can't help but take some confidence out of yesterday. It took the Twins and Jays 8 total runs in the 8th and 9th innings to hand me 2 1-run losses. The Brewers didn't have enough offense in the end, but halfway through I was looking at a slugfest having the better offense as a +150 dogs. That's why they play 9 innings I guess.

I like a few games but am going to watch the lines a bit before locking in on some. I have one that I think will only go up.

Marlins -140: 1.4 units to win 1. The Marlins have started hot and I think that should continue today against the Nats. I'm just about convinced at this point that Daniel Cabrera, despite his potential, will never get over the hump. He walks too many batters and I don't see this being the year that he somehow puts that behind him. Last year his walks declined, but his ratio fell to 95 Ks/90 BBs. That's not going to cut it. I expect this line to jump to -150 or so by game time.

PatsFanatic · Apr 8, 2009

That Seattle game was brutal...young closer walks the bases loaded in the 9th...OUCH.

I'm new to the forum but will be watching...GL the rest of the way Jibba.
Love the name. :laugh:

Jibba · Apr 8, 2009

Thanks PatsFanatic. Here's hoping we both have a very profitable baseball season. :toast:

Still watching some lines to see which way they'll move. In no particular order I'm looking at Philly, Colorado, Detroit, Texas and Milwaukee as possibles. I also like the Dodgers but can't see paying that price. The Chisox will almost definitely be a play tonight as I see a lot of value in that line. I should probably just grab -115 but figure I'll see if it moves and grab it by -120 if it starts to rise.

Season Record:

1-3 for -2.53 units.

Jibba · Apr 8, 2009

White Sox -105. 1.05 units to win 1. Greinke has always had great upside, but he's looked bad this spring and doesn't have a good record against Chicago. Until he shows that it's behind him, I will go against him on the road at a nice price every time. The White Sox have the better offense, are at home, and based on Greinke's troubles lately and against Chicago in general, I think this line is way off.

Still following some lines. Not sure what's changed, but the line on NYY is dropping like a brick. I had it dead on when it opened at -180, but if it keeps dropping I may play that game.

Jibba · Apr 8, 2009

Brewers -112: 1.12 units to win 1. This line strongly overvalues Randy Johnson and a weak Giants team. It also tells me that the public has completely forgotten how good this Gallardo kid is.

VenomousSanction · Apr 8, 2009

gl on tonight's card Jibbs

Jibba · Apr 8, 2009

Thanks man. Same to you.

Rangers +104: 1 unit to win 1.04. I would have liked a better number, but I think this is still solid value. I don't think Carmona will be returning to his 2007 form, although I think he still has the 2007 perception about him among many. I really like the Rangers' lineup and think they'll be trouble tonight. Padilla is far from an ace, but I can't let him scare me away from the home doggie tonight.

Seattle and San Diego are at a nice price right now, but I don't think I can pull the trigger. BOL.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

Reds +118: 1 unit to win 1.18. Arroyo has a decent history against the Mets and I don't think the Reds will be quietly swept in their opening series today. Ollie Perez is a huge question mark as well so I like the home dog.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

Detroit -110: 1.10 units to win 1. In a matchup of MLB debuts, I think a huge edge goes to Porcello. I also think Detroit is much better this year than oddsmakers are currently giving them credit for.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

I'm looking at a few other games currently, including Pittsburgh, Baltimore, KC and Texas among the early games. Not sure if I'll be playing any of them as of yet. BOL to all today.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

Pirates +190: 1 unit to win 1.9. Carpenter really needs to earn this much chalk. The Cardinals simply aren't that much better than the Pirates to deserve this kind of line without a serious pitching mismatch, which I just don't see given Carpenter's uncertainty.

Rangers -119: 1.19 units to win 1. Another starting pitcher with a lot of uncertainty hanging over his head here. Pavano will have a very tough time against this Rangers offense today and I just think McCarthy is the better pitcher here, even if he's coming back from an injury himself.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

Season Record:

4-4 for -0.53 units.

Jibba · Apr 9, 2009

I really wanted that Pirates game for a solid afternoon, but it wasn't meant to be.

Brewers +105: 1 unit to win 1.05. I like Manny Parra's stuff and still think the Giants are being overvalued. The Brewers have a solid squad and shouldn't be dogs to a weak Giants team.

BOL tonight folks.