The Failure of Money to Buy the Presidential Nomination, in One Chart
Some of the campaigns that are spending the most are also doing the worst.
February 17, 2016 — 10:00 AM EST
The current U.S. presidential race is on pace to be the most expensive ever. Outside groups known as super-PACs are playing an unprecedented role, dominating the first few months of fundraising by collecting checks of $1 million or more from wealthy individuals. These groups raised about $348 million in 2015, compared with about $438 million gathered by the campaigns themselves, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.
What's all that money bought? For Jeb Bush, not much. His super-PAC's massive expenditures on TV ads have failed to stop a decline in the polls for the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, Donald Trump rocketed to the top by spending relatively little. In part, this was because Trump proved adept at generating free publicity.
We decided to chart the relationship, or lack thereof, between spending and success in the polls. For spending, we compiled Federal Election Commission data on how much each presidential campaign and presidential super-PAC spent through Dec. 31. (New data for January will be disclosed Feb. 20.) Then we looked at the change in position in the polls, based on the average poll ranking for each candidate as compiled by Pollster.com. We compared each candidate's position at the end of December to their rank as of June 29. Here's the result for each candidate who was still in the race as of Dec. 31:
If you thought more spending leads to better poll results, you might expect most of the candidates to form a line stretching from the bottom-left to upper-right corner. The reality is messier, and if anything, the line seems to point the other way. That might give pause to anyone considering writing the next $1 million check.
Some of the campaigns that are spending the most are also doing the worst.
February 17, 2016 — 10:00 AM EST
The current U.S. presidential race is on pace to be the most expensive ever. Outside groups known as super-PACs are playing an unprecedented role, dominating the first few months of fundraising by collecting checks of $1 million or more from wealthy individuals. These groups raised about $348 million in 2015, compared with about $438 million gathered by the campaigns themselves, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.
What's all that money bought? For Jeb Bush, not much. His super-PAC's massive expenditures on TV ads have failed to stop a decline in the polls for the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, Donald Trump rocketed to the top by spending relatively little. In part, this was because Trump proved adept at generating free publicity.
We decided to chart the relationship, or lack thereof, between spending and success in the polls. For spending, we compiled Federal Election Commission data on how much each presidential campaign and presidential super-PAC spent through Dec. 31. (New data for January will be disclosed Feb. 20.) Then we looked at the change in position in the polls, based on the average poll ranking for each candidate as compiled by Pollster.com. We compared each candidate's position at the end of December to their rank as of June 29. Here's the result for each candidate who was still in the race as of Dec. 31:
If you thought more spending leads to better poll results, you might expect most of the candidates to form a line stretching from the bottom-left to upper-right corner. The reality is messier, and if anything, the line seems to point the other way. That might give pause to anyone considering writing the next $1 million check.
'Tonight I'm going to sleep with the best friend I have': Jeb Bush pays tribute to his wife after disastrous show in South Carolina forces him to bow out of Republican race despite raising $150MILLION
PUBLISHED: 01:50, 21 February 2016 | UPDATED: 06:11, 21 February 2016
Jeb Bush's journey to the White House officially ended tonight in South Carolina, despite raising $150million for his campaign.
The former Florida governor, who looked like he might take fourth, or even fifth place, in the Palmetto state, told supporters the news at his headquarters in Columbia, South Carolina.
'But the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken and I really respect their decision, so tonight I am suspending my campaign,' Bush said.
'Noooo,' members of the crowd responded back.
'Yeah, yeah,' Bush replied.
Bush brought in more than $150 million in fundraising for his campaign, but it appears by the time he terminated his run in the race, he had only spent about $84 million, according to opensecrets.org.
Bush also motioned to his wife, explaining that with her at his side, it would all be OK.
'I've had an incredible life and, for me, public service has been the highlight of that life, but no matter what the future holds, here's the greatest safety landing if you can imagine,' he said.
'Tonight I'm going to sleep with the best friend I have and the love of my life.
.
+9
Jeb Bush gave up the dream of being the third Bush in the White House tonight as returns showed him in fourth or fifth place
+9
A tearful Columba Bush gave away what was about to happen, as Jeb Bush didn't announce he was retreating until about halfway through his speech
+9
Jeb Bush tried to stay strong giving a thumbs up to supporters before heading to the podium and announcing he was suspending his campaign for president
+9
Jeb Bush called Columba Bush the love of his life: 'Tonight I'm going to sleep with the best friend I have'
Bush didn't show his hand immediately upon taking the stage, though Columba Bush appeared to be crying, previewing what was about to come.
'When I began this journey in Miami I committed that I would campaign as I would serve, going everywhere, speaking to everyone, keeping my word, facing the issues without flinching and staying true to what I believe,' Bush began.
He noted the 'presidency is bigger than any one person, it is certainly bigger than any one candidate.'
He also said, 'I've had a front row seat to this office for most of my adult life,' referencing both his father and his brother in the Oval Office.
'I am proud of the campaign we've run to unify our country and to advocate conservative solutions that would give more Americans to rise up and reach their God-given potential,' Bush said.
He then said that he planned to suspend his campaign.
Moving on from that moment, Bush congratulated his fellow Republicans as well.
'I congratulate my competitors who are remaining on the island, in their success for a race that has been hard fought,' Bush said.
+9
Jeb Bush told supporters that he had a great 'safety landing' in his wife Columba Bush, who tearfully stayed to his side as he dropped out of the presidential race tonight in South Carolina
+9
Bush goes to kiss his wife Columba while announcing that he is suspending his presidential campaign
+9
Jeb Bush had mom Barbara Bush come out on his behalf in South Carolina hoping that the popular former first lady could shore up support
+9
Laura Bush and George W. Bush came out in support of Jeb Bush too - an unusual move for the ex-president who has stayed out of the public eye throughout the Obama Administration
Trump wrapped up the South Carolina primary shortly after polls closed in the state at 7 p.m., receiving about 33 percent support in the state.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have been vying for second and third place.
Bush, on the other hand, only got single digits of support and was, at several points in the evening, trailing all the candidates except last place-finisher Ben Carson.
South Carolina was the state that the Bush campaign thought could turn things around.
After a sixth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Bush did better in New Hampshire, coming in fourth, less than a point behind Ted Cruz, who came in third.
The candidate pulled out all the stops, not only campaigning alongside his mother, the popular former first lady Barbara Bush, but he brought out former President George W. Bush, his reclusive brother who hasn't entered the political fray since laving office in 2009.
But it wasn't three times the charm, for Bush in a state that had helped launch both his brother and dad to the White House.
Bush stuck to the theme of running a respectable campaign throughout tonight's speech.
'In this campaign I have stood my ground, refusing to bend to the political winds,' Bush said.
'Because, despite what you might have heard, ideas matter, policy matters,' he continued, in what could be translated into a slight jab at Trump, who labeled Bush 'low energy' early on, a ruthless attack that seemed to effectively derail the ex-governor's campaign.
Bush moved on to people he actually held dear.
.
+9
Ohio Gov. John Kasich also wished Jeb Bush well. The two former governors flipped and flopped between fourth and fifth place during tonight's South Carolina primary
He gave a shout-out to South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, an ex-presidential candidate himself, who threw his support to Bush before the state's primary.
Bush remarked at Graham's 'amazing humor' before saying sweet things about Columba as well.
The Bush news reverberated through the Palmetto state quickly with both Rubio and Cruz sharing pleasantries about the governor when they got onstage.
Rubio supporters at his South Carolina headquarters cheered when they heard that Bush was dropping out.
The candidate was a little bit more chivalrous.
‘Jeb Bush has many things to be proud of. He's an extraordinary husband. He's an extraordinary father. He was the greatest governor in the history of Florida,' Rubio said.
‘And I believe and I pray that his service to our country has not yet ended. and I thank Jeb Bush for everything he did for the state of Florida and for running a campaign based on ideas,’ Rubio continued,
‘And I pray for him and his family tonight as they move forward in other endeavors in their life,' he added.
Over in Cruz-land, the Texas senator immediately brought up Bush when he got onstage.
'Gov. Bush brought honor and dignity to this race, tonight he has suspended his campaign, but Heidi and I give our very best to Jeb and Columba and their entire extraordinary family,' Cruz said.
'We with them the best and we thank them for their remarkable campaign,' Cruz said.
John Kasich used Twitter to send his regards.
'Jeb Bush fought hard every day. He was a great governor and is a great man,' Kasich said.
When it was Trump's turn to take his victory lap, the South Carolina winner and constant thorn in Bush's side congratulated Rubio and Cruz for coming in behind him.
On Bush he said nothing.
.
- Jeb Bush looked to take fourth, or even fifth place in tonight's Palmetto primary, with Donald Trump declared the early winner
- Bush told supporters at his Columbia, South Carolina headquarters that he had decided to suspend his campaign
- He credited his wife Columba for giving him 'the greatest safety landing' as he exits the presidential field
- Bush brought in more than $150million in fundraising for his campaign
PUBLISHED: 01:50, 21 February 2016 | UPDATED: 06:11, 21 February 2016
Jeb Bush's journey to the White House officially ended tonight in South Carolina, despite raising $150million for his campaign.
The former Florida governor, who looked like he might take fourth, or even fifth place, in the Palmetto state, told supporters the news at his headquarters in Columbia, South Carolina.
'But the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken and I really respect their decision, so tonight I am suspending my campaign,' Bush said.
'Noooo,' members of the crowd responded back.
'Yeah, yeah,' Bush replied.
Bush brought in more than $150 million in fundraising for his campaign, but it appears by the time he terminated his run in the race, he had only spent about $84 million, according to opensecrets.org.
Bush also motioned to his wife, explaining that with her at his side, it would all be OK.
'I've had an incredible life and, for me, public service has been the highlight of that life, but no matter what the future holds, here's the greatest safety landing if you can imagine,' he said.
'Tonight I'm going to sleep with the best friend I have and the love of my life.
.
+9
Jeb Bush gave up the dream of being the third Bush in the White House tonight as returns showed him in fourth or fifth place
+9
A tearful Columba Bush gave away what was about to happen, as Jeb Bush didn't announce he was retreating until about halfway through his speech
+9
Jeb Bush tried to stay strong giving a thumbs up to supporters before heading to the podium and announcing he was suspending his campaign for president
+9
Jeb Bush called Columba Bush the love of his life: 'Tonight I'm going to sleep with the best friend I have'
Bush didn't show his hand immediately upon taking the stage, though Columba Bush appeared to be crying, previewing what was about to come.
'When I began this journey in Miami I committed that I would campaign as I would serve, going everywhere, speaking to everyone, keeping my word, facing the issues without flinching and staying true to what I believe,' Bush began.
He noted the 'presidency is bigger than any one person, it is certainly bigger than any one candidate.'
He also said, 'I've had a front row seat to this office for most of my adult life,' referencing both his father and his brother in the Oval Office.
'I am proud of the campaign we've run to unify our country and to advocate conservative solutions that would give more Americans to rise up and reach their God-given potential,' Bush said.
He then said that he planned to suspend his campaign.
Moving on from that moment, Bush congratulated his fellow Republicans as well.
'I congratulate my competitors who are remaining on the island, in their success for a race that has been hard fought,' Bush said.
+9
Jeb Bush told supporters that he had a great 'safety landing' in his wife Columba Bush, who tearfully stayed to his side as he dropped out of the presidential race tonight in South Carolina
+9
Bush goes to kiss his wife Columba while announcing that he is suspending his presidential campaign
+9
Jeb Bush had mom Barbara Bush come out on his behalf in South Carolina hoping that the popular former first lady could shore up support
+9
Laura Bush and George W. Bush came out in support of Jeb Bush too - an unusual move for the ex-president who has stayed out of the public eye throughout the Obama Administration
Trump wrapped up the South Carolina primary shortly after polls closed in the state at 7 p.m., receiving about 33 percent support in the state.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have been vying for second and third place.
Bush, on the other hand, only got single digits of support and was, at several points in the evening, trailing all the candidates except last place-finisher Ben Carson.
South Carolina was the state that the Bush campaign thought could turn things around.
After a sixth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Bush did better in New Hampshire, coming in fourth, less than a point behind Ted Cruz, who came in third.
The candidate pulled out all the stops, not only campaigning alongside his mother, the popular former first lady Barbara Bush, but he brought out former President George W. Bush, his reclusive brother who hasn't entered the political fray since laving office in 2009.
But it wasn't three times the charm, for Bush in a state that had helped launch both his brother and dad to the White House.
Bush stuck to the theme of running a respectable campaign throughout tonight's speech.
'In this campaign I have stood my ground, refusing to bend to the political winds,' Bush said.
'Because, despite what you might have heard, ideas matter, policy matters,' he continued, in what could be translated into a slight jab at Trump, who labeled Bush 'low energy' early on, a ruthless attack that seemed to effectively derail the ex-governor's campaign.
Bush moved on to people he actually held dear.
.
+9
Ohio Gov. John Kasich also wished Jeb Bush well. The two former governors flipped and flopped between fourth and fifth place during tonight's South Carolina primary
He gave a shout-out to South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, an ex-presidential candidate himself, who threw his support to Bush before the state's primary.
Bush remarked at Graham's 'amazing humor' before saying sweet things about Columba as well.
The Bush news reverberated through the Palmetto state quickly with both Rubio and Cruz sharing pleasantries about the governor when they got onstage.
Rubio supporters at his South Carolina headquarters cheered when they heard that Bush was dropping out.
The candidate was a little bit more chivalrous.
‘Jeb Bush has many things to be proud of. He's an extraordinary husband. He's an extraordinary father. He was the greatest governor in the history of Florida,' Rubio said.
‘And I believe and I pray that his service to our country has not yet ended. and I thank Jeb Bush for everything he did for the state of Florida and for running a campaign based on ideas,’ Rubio continued,
‘And I pray for him and his family tonight as they move forward in other endeavors in their life,' he added.
Over in Cruz-land, the Texas senator immediately brought up Bush when he got onstage.
'Gov. Bush brought honor and dignity to this race, tonight he has suspended his campaign, but Heidi and I give our very best to Jeb and Columba and their entire extraordinary family,' Cruz said.
'We with them the best and we thank them for their remarkable campaign,' Cruz said.
John Kasich used Twitter to send his regards.
'Jeb Bush fought hard every day. He was a great governor and is a great man,' Kasich said.
When it was Trump's turn to take his victory lap, the South Carolina winner and constant thorn in Bush's side congratulated Rubio and Cruz for coming in behind him.
On Bush he said nothing.
.
