jcubs55's Season Long Chicago Cubs Thread!

[jcubs55]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh.... it's just about that time of year!

As some may know I am a Cubs season ticket holder and lifelong diehard fan. I've posted thoughts in the past as well as plays on or against my team. I've always approached wagering with a clear mind and have taken pride in my ability to remain unbiased and identify spots where it may be prosperous to wager against my team. That being said, I don't plan on wagering against the Cubs this year at this point. If I identify a spot that doesn't look too promising for us I may perhaps post a suggestion to others but I won't be wagering any money against the Cubbies myself until further notice.

I'll try and share some fun things in this thread such as interesting articles, potential plays, maybe even some pics from the games while I'm at them or some bits of info from the stadium that might not get picked up on TV.

Go Cubs Go!

 

[jcubs55]

I'll start by addressing the elephant in the room:

The Chicago Cubs are the favorite to win the World Series and have the reputation of "chokers".

I couldn't care less. People bring up the 108 year drought all the time, but I've only been alive for 26 years. Nothing before that really matters much to me.

More importantly, nothing before October 12th, 2011 matters. That is when Theo Epstein officially signed his contract with the Cubs. Since then, the organization has experienced a COMPLETE overhaul... literally EVERYTHING has changed.

With the trade of Castro, there is not a single player on the team that was on the roster before Theo took over. It goes much deeper than the players as well. Coaches, executive, scouts, even the stadium is under renovation. The organization released a book/guide called the "Cubs Way" that everyone was required to read. This organization is a shell of it's former self and the losing/underacheiving/undisciplined habits have been broken. I have followed every action and every step Theo and Jed (Hoyer) and Jason (McLeod) have taken and have been nothing short of amazed by how impressive and knowledgable these guys are.

The Cubs may not win the World Series this year. Even as the favorites, you can still get almost 8-1. Baseball is a sport of parity. A batted ball can head many different ways. Nothing is guaranteed. But one thing I can tell you is I'm not worried at all about the "history" of this franchise.

 

[jcubs55]

158800486-3

11/23/2015 4:17 PM

Manual Play

(fp) 1,000.00

10,000.00

Pregame Play

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I did place a futures wager on the Cubs to win the 2016 World Series. I asked my local early in the offseason to get down on this and we agreed to a price of 10-1 in early November (he's lazy and took a bit to get it documented on the system). The odds weren't up on his hosting site yet so he manually entered it with this name but rest assured this is a futures wager on the Chicago Cubs.

One of the reasons I wanted to get down on this so early was because I knew Theo and Jed would work their magic this offseason. I didn't suspect we'd sign David Price given his "price" tag and the fact that we won't have absurd money to spend until after 2019 when we start our on TV network. Even if the funds weren't an issue, these guys are too disciplined to throw all their eggs in one basket like that. Theo has referred to signing top free agents to huge contracts as a "necessary evil" at times (i.e. Lester), but we weren't in a spot this offseason where we needed to force a move like that.

Rather, they did exactly what we needed (surprise, surprise). We addressed all our needs by adding quality veterans to blend with our young talent... and guess who gets to mix those ingredients? Joe. Maddon.

Lackey adds much needed playoff experience to the rotation. Zobrist is referred to as one of the best "human beings" in the sport and brings his veteran leadership and smarts to replace Starlin Castro who (as much as I wanted to root for him) is a born loser. I knew midseason when he let a runner score from second because he wasn't paying attention on a deep grounder to the hole that he would NOT be on this roster this season. When asked, everyone in the organization shows nothing but respect for him but that's because the org is full of quality people who take the high road and know better than to stir the pot. He didn't belong here.

Heyward... I think his bat will fit nicely into our lineup but I'm excited for the other aspects he brings... mainly his glove. I also like that he has speed and great base running abilities and I look for him to tally a good amount of steals this year under a guy that likes to run.

The odds on the Cubbies heading into spring after these moves is now in the 7-1 to 8-1 range. I guess I'm only posting this unavailable line for information purposes and to "tell the whole story" of the season.

 

[jcubs55]

I have no other wagers down at the moment but am looking to get down on the team win total over.

I saw reports of lines opening at 89 for the Cubs and am hoping to get somewhere around that number before the public bets it up.

As stated before I know that baseball is a sport of parity and it is extremely hard to win a lot of games. I think the public will get burned on a lot of overs this year after seeing a lot of teams rack up a large amount of wins last year. For the Cubs to win 97 games and finish in THIRD PLACE IN THEIR OWN DIVISION was absolutely HISTORIC... it actually was... look it up.

It will not take 100 wins to win the NL Central this year. It more than likely won't even take 95 either. The Cubs were incredibly lucky to win 97 games last year and had countless walk-off and one-run victories. Before last season, I personally had the Cubs winning 78 games. What we did was nothing short of amazing. I knew this excellence was coming, but it arrived even earlier than I thought. I think that's just another example of how the culture has changed and how we've focused on acquiring not only quality ballplayers but quality HUMANS. Our rookies started contributing right away and I had accounted for a learning curve. Our bullpen also performed MUCH better than I expected. With a year of experience under our belt, some quality veteran additions, and the dilution of our division I don't think 90 wins is asking too much. The Cards lost key players (including a couple to us), the Reds lost/traded 4 of their top 6 WAR players, the Brewers were in sell-off mode all offseason and I only see the Pirates getting worse this season.

 

[jcubs55]

You may be noticing a trend... I am very pro Cubs this year. You may not be surprised by this. Keep in mind, I do believe I've analyzed this with a level head. I had us at 78 wins last year. I don't this year. Anything can happen, and we may inexplicably regress this year (but I don't see it). If we do, I will be all over us again next year and every year following as long as the roster is the same or similar to where we are at now. I sincerely believe we have a truly special group of guys that could make history. Most of the young bats are controlled until around 2021... so this could be a fun ride.

The front office is approaching the near future as a two-year championship window because that is how long we have Jake Arrieta under control for before Boras takes him to free agency. There has been talk of an extension but it seems unlikely. As I said in an earlier post Theo doesn't tend to offer enormous contracts unless the situation is perfect and Jake will be 30 when Boras takes him into a FA bidding war. I think we've counted our blessings that he's ours for two more years and whatever happens past then - Theo will make the best of it. Either way, these bats are special and will keep this team in contention for many years. With that side of the coin in control, Theo and Jed will be sure to have a plan in place post-Jake, which will also be when Lackey's two year deal will be up and Lester will be aging into the backend of his contract which at that point will likely seem to be more of a liability rather than an asset. But, good news! We will then have more money to bring in FA pitchers, we'll always have an extra bat to trade for a young controllable starter if needed, and the farm has some young studs showing promise (Duane Underwood, Dylan Cease, Justin Steele to name a few... I also would like to see CJ Edwards get a chance to start and I'm hearing he may be stretched out this spring. Watch out for Pierce Johnson as well.)

The bottomline is this front office is a godsend and it's such a refreshing, enjoyable feeling to know I can just sit back, relax, and watch these guys go to work making all the right moves. Could you imagine if we took Jon Gray over Kris Bryant? People thought we were NUTS for taking Schwarber 4th in 2014. It's amazing how quickly these guys get proven right and see their scouting come to fruition.

I have a sneaky suspicion that if/when the Cubs win the World Series Theo may move along to the next step of his life (beyond baseball), but in the meantime I'm enjoying the ride.

 

[jcubs55]

Throughout this thread I'll make random predictions, such as this: The Cubs will make at least one notable pitching acquisition by the trade deadline.

Truth be told I thought we would make this move before the season started, but apparently we can't find the right deal. We have no need to overpay this early so perhaps the guys are waiting to see if a potential trading partner flails off and lowers their price midseason.

 

[jcubs55]

Prediction: If the Cubs underperform this year, the reason will be our bullpen. The "super utility pitcher" strategy worked last year with a bunch of low profile names and former starters eating late innings, but I was holding by breath the whole way. I made this same prediction last year but luckily I was incorrect. We will see how things play out this year. If there is a tandem of coaches that can turn a patchwork experiment like this into a long-term successful strategy, it's manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Chris Bosio. In my opinion, they are both the best in the sport at their two respective positions.

 

[jcubs55]

I'm interested to see odds on Kris Bryant to win NL MVP.

The kid is out of this world. Last year was NOTHING. He is only going to get better. The smartest, most composed and mature prospect I've ever seen firsthand. His natural power is indescribable... you just have to go to a game and watch. I was sitting in the left center bleachers when he hit the top left of the new jumbotron and I was floored. His swing is so effortless too... that's the part that shocks me so much. Combine that with his disciplined eye and ability to adjust to pitchers MID AT BAT and his offensive potential is immeasurable. I'll circle back to this one...

 

[jcubs55]

With the team projected to win 89 games in this 162 season that would be a winning percentage of .54938

If n / (n+100) = .54938, then we can solve for n to calculate the odds of the average money line for the Cubs in any given game this year.

n = 121.917

So coming into the season, we can expect all the various lines over the course of the year to average out to about -122. Of course, this will change over the year based on many factors such as performance, injuries, changes in public perception, etc.

 

[jcubs55]

Pitchers and catchers are due to report on Friday/Saturday. The rest of the roster is scheduled to report Wednesday the 24th. But, MANY players have already reported in the last several days and have been working out, taking BP, etc. These guys are HUNGRY and I love it. Some names already at camp include:

Jason Heyward
Kyle Schwarber
Anthony Rizzo
Kris Bryant
Javier Baez
Albert Almora
Willson Contreras
Taylor Davis
Jake Arrieta
Miguel Montero
Justin Grimm
Travis Wood
Hector Rondon
Chris Coghlan
Arismendy Alcantara
Matt Szczur

A few more that just showed up today:

ADDISON RUSSELL!! - (My pick for most improved hitter this year)
Kyle Hendricks
Trevor Cahill
Pierce Johnson
Duane Underwood

A Cubs blogger at camp tweeted that Schwarber just hit a car in BP popcorn-eatinggif

 

[jcubs55]

Confirmed... Here's the poor guy whose car got hit!

 

[jcubs55]

Pitchers and catchers reporting today! Some other hitters have continued to arrive early as well (Zobist, Ross, Murton, etc.)... let's get this party started!

 

[da2281]

Holy cow (no pun intended) a Cubs thread!!! Fantastic...........man I can't wait for the season to get here, we live in Oklahoma and I took the family to a few series last year, Brewers, White Sox, and Cards, Wrigley is the best, love Wrigleyville and Chicago.

 

[jcubs55]

Holy cow (no pun intended) a Cubs thread!!! Fantastic...........man I can't wait for the season to get here, we live in Oklahoma and I took the family to a few series last year, Brewers, White Sox, and Cards, Wrigley is the best, love Wrigleyville and Chicago.

Yes sir! This should be a fun and exciting season and I'm just glad I'll be along for the ride... nothing to lose, right!?!?! Thanks for stopping in. Glad you're still able to catch some games now and then. There's indeed nothing better than catching a ballgame in the neighborhood.

 

[jcubs55]

Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella in camp today... the hitters are due Wednesday but that's just about everyone here now...

Soler slimmed down a good amount (based on word from bloggers as well as photos they've posted). He has a lot of natural power and his low homer numbers last year were more a result of hitting line drives more than anything else. They are working on his swing to see if he can lift balls better... he will definitely get them to carry if he does.

Also reading that Javy is looking very natural in Center Field. I wouldn't expect anything less as he is such a gifted fielder. With all the positions he can play, he may get more playing time than any other "bench" player in MLB. Think of him like a 6th man in basketball in terms of playing time... not labeled a "starter" but plays just as much as the other guys. He will be getting a lot of at bats. I just hope all the shuffling in the field doesn't detract from his focus at the plate.

 

[jcubs55]

We just traded Chris Coghlan to Oakland for Aaron Brooks (pitcher). CC was and is one of the most underrated players in MLB. He came in every day, put his head down and went to work. Never complained about losing starts or having to platoon as the prospects came up... just got the job done. His advanced stats were unbelievably impressive and he was an OBP machine. He even had some highlight reel catches. I'm definitely going to miss him. I wish him nothing but the best and hope he starts full time in Oakland and kills it.

My initial impression of this trade is that it was sitautional. He wouldn't have gotten much playing time this year behind our stacked lineup and his role would've only diminished more and more. He deserves better than that. He's more valuable on a team that will use him and that's why a trade makes sense. Chris Bosio is a master at tweaking some weaknesses for under-performing pitchers and getting them on the right track. Theo and Jed love taking chances on pitchers like this and a lot of them have worked out well (see Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Hector Rondon, JAKE ARRIETA... and many others). Hopefully Brooks can be another one of those guys but even if he's not we don't lose much given our lack of need for CC and as I said I wish him only good things.

 

[jcubs55]

WHAT is going on!??!?!?! Dexter Fowler is IN CAMP and reports just broke that he has SIGNED with the CUBS.... There were official reports that he agreed to a deal earlier this week with the Orioles... I guess he never put pen to paper... This is insane... hearing he turned down $15 million to take $8 million with us... This breaks right after the Coghlan trade... I wonder if the chain reaction in this string of moves isn't yet complete... From here it's possible we put Dex back in CF, move Heyward back to RF where he is a Gold Glover winner, and then trade Soler for pitching... I need to see how this plays out.

 

[jcubs55]

Theo just said we don't have any imminent trades planned... I like it... no need to do anything now. Start the season, let guys get in their groove, see what you have and then reevaluate near the trade deadline to make any adjustments for the final stretch. Twitter is blowing up and there are videos of him walking onto the field with Theo and the players greeting him with hugs and applause... amazing monent.

This team is UNREAL!

 

[jcubs55]

I had been trying to get down large on a wager the second the lines came out about two weeks ago but my local was out of the country for a week. We got in contact with him the day he returned and it took him almost a week to confirm (possibly laying off/confirming line and price since it's not out at all books yet) but I was able to get my wager officially booked. I don't know if the line is available at any books anymore (moved on at least some that I've seen) and there's no point posting my wager amount but I thought I'd make some mention of it to offer at least some disclosure. I'm hoping the Cubs can have a very successful year. Let's go!

ADDISON RUSSELL!! - (My pick for most improved hitter this year)

I previously mentioned "hitter" because he was already outstanding in the field last year (4th in defensive runs saved at SS & 2B even though only playing 140 games)... but let me clarify... I'm picking Addy as the breakout player of the year. This kid is going to be a STUD. Nothing but GREAT things coming out of camp about him. So excited to see what he does this year. He played the entire 2015 season at age 21 - the youngest player on the team. He will only continue to get better and better. Can't wait!

 

[jcubs55]

The lineup for our first spring training game tomorrow has been posted... it's almost time!!