Reality check: Cutler will be a fantasy disappointment
The Chicago Bears made one of the NFL's biggest offseason moves, acquiring Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos in an attempt to solve a seeming decades-long problem at quarterback. Chances are, though, that Cutler will have a difficult time being as much of a fantasy hero as the Bears hope he will be for them.
First, let's debunk the notion that Cutler is one of the league's elite quarterbacks by looking at some key statistics last year and where he ranked (table left).
The yards and touchdowns are impressive, but they also are functions of the number of passes attempted.
The more a quarterback throws, the more yards and TDs he should accumulate. Completion percentage and passer rating are not dependent on attempts and, in those measures, Cutler was only middle-of-the-road last year.
During coach Lovie Smith's five seasons in Chicago, the Bears have averaged 500 pass attempts a season, 19% fewer than Cutler threw in 2008. No doubt, the Bears probably will throw more with Cutler at quarterback. But to assume they will replicate the pass-happy Broncos in throwing frequency is quite a stretch.
Next, consider that the Bears might have the worst group of starting wide receivers in the league. Devin Hester is an excellent kick returner and a marginal receiver; he is the team's leading returning receiver with 665 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The Bears also are counting on Earl Bennett, a college teammate of Cutler's. Bennett had zero catches last year. Rookie Juaquin Iglesias could be the third receiver.
This isn't to suggest Cutler will be terrible. At the right price, he still might be worth picking as one of your main quarterbacks. Cutler is going into only his fourth season and Hester, for instance, is coming off his first full year as a wide receiver. Just let somebody else pay the price for thinking Cutler will jump into Peyton Manning's class.
How to pick a back
The hunt for great running backs is on, and you probably will not like the search. We all love to draft running backs, but this year's class is full of questions. Go ahead — check out the top backs and try to find a sure thing. Take a look at some of the stars' problems.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings. He's the league's best pure runner and gained an NFL-high 1,760 rushing yards. His 10 touchdowns, however, put him in the same ballpark as Tim Hightower and Le'Ron McClain. That's a tough ballpark to be in for a No. 1 overall pick.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons. Probably the safest pick, though you have to be confident of another big season from the Falcons (against a tougher schedule). Another strong year, sure. But a 17-TD blockbuster is asking a lot.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars. No longer splitting time with Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew should be poised for a monster year. But are you willing to commit to somebody who never has had more than 197 carries or 941 rushing yards in a season?
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers. What are the odds of a runner cranking out an NFL-high 20 total touchdowns in a split-time job after not scoring once in the first four weeks? Now what are the chances he will do it again?
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears. After a bang-up rookie season, Forte has to crank it up a notch this year. To live up to first-round billing, he has to be more consistent throughout and drop the stretches of disappearing for three weeks without a good game.
Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins. Surprised he finished fourth in the league in rushing? Between injuries and a sputtering Redskins Offense, it seems hard to believe — as does another season of regular, weekly reliable production.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans. Slight of frame, Johnson faces the pressure of being the Titans' main man this season. He has game-breaking ability but also has TD-sucking LenDale White as a teammate. Also, Johnson's 251 carries were the fewest of any back in the top 10 in rushing.
LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers.
If you drafted him last year, you need no reminder about why taking him in the first round this year is a serious gut-check moment. So there are some of your top backs and the questions they bring. If you're lucky, the uncertainty will work in your favor, driving down the value of somebody you actually want to a draft position where you can grab him.
History on Brady's side
The good part about predicting New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's return from last year's torn anterior cruciate ligament is that we have a little bit of a track record to go on. The Philadelphia Eagles' Donovan McNabb and the Cincinnati Bengals' Carson Palmer have come back from ACL injuries in the past three years. Here are Palmer's and McNabb's pre- and post-injury year stats, but the comparisons are not exact.
<!-- ContentCoreElement ID="fb215cc9-fa1e-4c7f-aeac-0dcac1a5a7e3", DateTime="5/14/2009 7:00:58 PM" --><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vaTextBold> </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>G</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Comp. </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Att.</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Pct.</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Yds. </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>TDs</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>INTs</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>McNabb '06</TD><TD class=vaText>10</TD><TD class=vaText>180</TD><TD class=vaText>316</TD><TD class=vaText>57.0</TD><TD class=vaText>2,647</TD><TD class=vaText>18</TD><TD class=vaText>6</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>McNabb '07 </TD><TD class=vaText>14</TD><TD class=vaText>291</TD><TD class=vaText>473 </TD><TD class=vaText>61.5</TD><TD class=vaText>3,324</TD><TD class=vaText>19</TD><TD class=vaText>7</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Palmer '05</TD><TD class=vaText>16 </TD><TD class=vaText>345</TD><TD class=vaText>509</TD><TD class=vaText>67.8</TD><TD class=vaText>3,836</TD><TD class=vaText>32</TD><TD class=vaText>12</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=vaText>Palmer '06</TD><TD class=vaText>16</TD><TD class=vaText>324</TD><TD class=vaText>520</TD><TD class=vaText>62.3</TD><TD class=vaText>4,035</TD><TD class=vaText>28</TD><TD class=vaText>13</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End ContentCoreElement ID="fb215cc9-fa1e-4c7f-aeac-0dcac1a5a7e3" -->
The good news for Brady is that McNabb and Palmer came back from their injuries in less than 12 months, whereas Brady will go a full calendar year between playing after going down in Week 1 last season. Palmer's statistics are similar enough to be almost insignificant. Knowing how it turned out, the injury would have been only a tiny factor in determining Palmer's value going into 2006. McNabb is less instructive. The biggest change is a drop in TD passes per game, but the Eagles were dealing with many other issues in 2007. McNabb also was more mobile before his injury, and the loss of mobility might have hurt his success upon his return. Mobility isn't an issue with Brady.
So just tune it all out and expect Brady to be back at his 2007 50-TD level and Randy Moss to resurface with another 23 TD catches? Those record numbers, of course, are unlikely. Given the past returns of quarterbacks to success after ACL injuries, Brady should be considered the top quarterback again. And if you put him there, it only makes sense for Moss to be the No. 1 receiver.
You might need a little extra fortitude to draft Brady and Moss early this season, but barring anyrehab complications, expect more big passing numbers in New England.
The Chicago Bears made one of the NFL's biggest offseason moves, acquiring Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos in an attempt to solve a seeming decades-long problem at quarterback. Chances are, though, that Cutler will have a difficult time being as much of a fantasy hero as the Bears hope he will be for them.
First, let's debunk the notion that Cutler is one of the league's elite quarterbacks by looking at some key statistics last year and where he ranked (table left).
The yards and touchdowns are impressive, but they also are functions of the number of passes attempted.
The more a quarterback throws, the more yards and TDs he should accumulate. Completion percentage and passer rating are not dependent on attempts and, in those measures, Cutler was only middle-of-the-road last year.
During coach Lovie Smith's five seasons in Chicago, the Bears have averaged 500 pass attempts a season, 19% fewer than Cutler threw in 2008. No doubt, the Bears probably will throw more with Cutler at quarterback. But to assume they will replicate the pass-happy Broncos in throwing frequency is quite a stretch.
Next, consider that the Bears might have the worst group of starting wide receivers in the league. Devin Hester is an excellent kick returner and a marginal receiver; he is the team's leading returning receiver with 665 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The Bears also are counting on Earl Bennett, a college teammate of Cutler's. Bennett had zero catches last year. Rookie Juaquin Iglesias could be the third receiver.
This isn't to suggest Cutler will be terrible. At the right price, he still might be worth picking as one of your main quarterbacks. Cutler is going into only his fourth season and Hester, for instance, is coming off his first full year as a wide receiver. Just let somebody else pay the price for thinking Cutler will jump into Peyton Manning's class.
How to pick a back
The hunt for great running backs is on, and you probably will not like the search. We all love to draft running backs, but this year's class is full of questions. Go ahead — check out the top backs and try to find a sure thing. Take a look at some of the stars' problems.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings. He's the league's best pure runner and gained an NFL-high 1,760 rushing yards. His 10 touchdowns, however, put him in the same ballpark as Tim Hightower and Le'Ron McClain. That's a tough ballpark to be in for a No. 1 overall pick.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons. Probably the safest pick, though you have to be confident of another big season from the Falcons (against a tougher schedule). Another strong year, sure. But a 17-TD blockbuster is asking a lot.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars. No longer splitting time with Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew should be poised for a monster year. But are you willing to commit to somebody who never has had more than 197 carries or 941 rushing yards in a season?
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers. What are the odds of a runner cranking out an NFL-high 20 total touchdowns in a split-time job after not scoring once in the first four weeks? Now what are the chances he will do it again?
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears. After a bang-up rookie season, Forte has to crank it up a notch this year. To live up to first-round billing, he has to be more consistent throughout and drop the stretches of disappearing for three weeks without a good game.
Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins. Surprised he finished fourth in the league in rushing? Between injuries and a sputtering Redskins Offense, it seems hard to believe — as does another season of regular, weekly reliable production.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans. Slight of frame, Johnson faces the pressure of being the Titans' main man this season. He has game-breaking ability but also has TD-sucking LenDale White as a teammate. Also, Johnson's 251 carries were the fewest of any back in the top 10 in rushing.
LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers.
If you drafted him last year, you need no reminder about why taking him in the first round this year is a serious gut-check moment. So there are some of your top backs and the questions they bring. If you're lucky, the uncertainty will work in your favor, driving down the value of somebody you actually want to a draft position where you can grab him.
History on Brady's side
The good part about predicting New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's return from last year's torn anterior cruciate ligament is that we have a little bit of a track record to go on. The Philadelphia Eagles' Donovan McNabb and the Cincinnati Bengals' Carson Palmer have come back from ACL injuries in the past three years. Here are Palmer's and McNabb's pre- and post-injury year stats, but the comparisons are not exact.
<!-- ContentCoreElement ID="fb215cc9-fa1e-4c7f-aeac-0dcac1a5a7e3", DateTime="5/14/2009 7:00:58 PM" --><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=vaTextBold> </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>G</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Comp. </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Att.</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Pct.</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>Yds. </TD><TD class=vaTextBold>TDs</TD><TD class=vaTextBold>INTs</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=8>
The good news for Brady is that McNabb and Palmer came back from their injuries in less than 12 months, whereas Brady will go a full calendar year between playing after going down in Week 1 last season. Palmer's statistics are similar enough to be almost insignificant. Knowing how it turned out, the injury would have been only a tiny factor in determining Palmer's value going into 2006. McNabb is less instructive. The biggest change is a drop in TD passes per game, but the Eagles were dealing with many other issues in 2007. McNabb also was more mobile before his injury, and the loss of mobility might have hurt his success upon his return. Mobility isn't an issue with Brady.
So just tune it all out and expect Brady to be back at his 2007 50-TD level and Randy Moss to resurface with another 23 TD catches? Those record numbers, of course, are unlikely. Given the past returns of quarterbacks to success after ACL injuries, Brady should be considered the top quarterback again. And if you put him there, it only makes sense for Moss to be the No. 1 receiver.
You might need a little extra fortitude to draft Brady and Moss early this season, but barring anyrehab complications, expect more big passing numbers in New England.
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