Jarman's MMA Prediction Thread

[LucrativeJarman]

Welcome to my thread fellow MMA fans! For the past ten years, I've been a die-hard MMA fan. A couple of years back, I began capping fights and have been quite successful. In this thread, you will find my most confident wagers highlighted in Bold. These are the bouts I feel confident enough to risk my own money on, so if you tail my pick and lose, take solace in knowing that I lost as well. At times, I will a post a prediction that is not highlighted in bold. These are simply my leans and a decision has yet to be made as to whether or not I will be placing a wager on them. No matter how much research someone does or how confident they are in a prediction, ANYTHING can happen in a fight. That being said, tail at your own risk!Note: My record will reflect bouts for which I have placed a wager (i.e. bouts highlighted in Bold). Bouts that do not appear in bold will not be reflected in my record as they have no weight financially.


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Will have first set of fights listed later in the week so stay tuned!

 

[BZ]

Welcome and good luck with your wagers.

 

[MattyMatt]

Nice to see some new posters down here. Good luck and looking forward to the plays.

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Okay, so I just finished my review of this weekend's upcoming card, UFC Fight Night 42. To say the least, nothing stands out to me. I may make a small play on Brian Caraway to defeat Erik Perez but it's nothing I feel confident unloading on. A result I like more is Benson Henderson to defeat Rustam Khabilov, but the line looks fishy so this will likely be a small wager if anything. When you look at Khabilov's record, he hasn't fought anywhere near the same caliber of competition as Henderson. For this reason, I expected Benson to be more along the lines of a 3:1 favorite. Henderson at -235 just looks off...like the books are begging for Benson money. As of now, there are no official plays that will count toward the thread record. As I continue to analyze the card, I'll be sure to let you guys know if anything changes

 

[MattyMatt]

The books aren't begging for Benson money. Rustam is probably the strongest 155er in the World, with his only loss coming at Light Heavyweight! Yes, Light Heavyweight. The elite sambo and the influx of Russian fighters lately has people taking notice. Benson may be the biggest name Rustam has fought yet, but that doesn't mean he isn't an elite fighter. His striking could improve some, but his technical fighting style is elite (didn't look as good as I thought he would in the Masvidal contest I must admit). Benson's TDD is pretty good, but if a one handed Josh Thompson can take him down with ease (think he won the fight), then Rustam should be able too as well. I see a technical battle that may bring boos from the just bleed fight crowd. If I could bet on a split decision, I would, as that's where this one could be going. But, I will have a small play on Rustam as his sambo is greater than Benson's jitz (seen him subbed too many times at jitz Tourneys). Will he win the fight, maybe, but it's closer than the odds have it IMO. Only thing to note for me is Benson's striking from outside, and the potential for Rustam to gas late. I think he's roll ready though, and looking forward to the fight...

Good luck to you...

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Brian Caraway to defeat Erik Perez: WIN
Benson Henderson to defeat Rustam Khabilov: WIN
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[LucrativeJarman]

After my initial skim through the card for UFC 174 this coming weekend, these are two fights that stand out to me. As I will be placing fairly large wagers on each (especially Daniel Sarafian), these will be the first bouts to count towards the thread record. Later today or tomorrow, I will complete my analysis of the fight card and post any additional picks I feel confident in. BOL to those of you who decide to tail!

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Daniel Sarafian (-370) defeats Kiichi Kunimoto (+280)
Bet Size: **LARGE**

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Demetrious Johnson (-550) defeats Ali Bagautinov (+425)
Bet Size: Moderate

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Rory MacDonald (-115) defeats Tyron Woodley (-105)
Bet Size: Moderate

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Ryan Jimmo (+140) defeats Ovince St. Preux (-160)
Bet Size: Moderate

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski (+135) defeats Brendan Schaub (-155)
Bet Size: No Wager

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Event: UFC 174
Date: Saturday, 06/14/2014
Prediction: Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante (+130) defeats Ryan Bader (-150)
Bet Size: Moderate

 

[MattyMatt]

Like the Calvacante wager.

Great line on Mighty Mouse as he's like -725+ everywhere now.

 

[LucrativeJarman]

Really? My sportsbook still has him at -600.

 

[MattyMatt]

Really? My sportsbook still has him at -600.

-700 and -660 currently at mine. I like the under 4.5 beat I think as Ali either catches him early or fades IMO.

Enjoy the fights!