Thursday and Friday stuff...
My personal lines:
Mississippi -14, O/U 48
Missouri -7, O/U 75
NO LINES UP YET ON THE TOTALS
Bets and why:
Mississippi Rebels -3 -115
I really expected this line to be -7 or -8 and for me to be a little scared because it was so far off. The reality was that it was even further off then I figured but I'm not going to lay off of it even though I should. South Carolina has problems moving the ball and are going against a strong defensive line that should do very well to defend them. South Carolina's defense is very dinged up and I think Ole Miss can score about 30. That should be all it takes. Then again, this is probably a trap that I'm falling for.
My personal lines:
Mississippi -14, O/U 48
Missouri -7, O/U 75
NO LINES UP YET ON THE TOTALS
Bets and why:
Mississippi Rebels -3 -115
I really expected this line to be -7 or -8 and for me to be a little scared because it was so far off. The reality was that it was even further off then I figured but I'm not going to lay off of it even though I should. South Carolina has problems moving the ball and are going against a strong defensive line that should do very well to defend them. South Carolina's defense is very dinged up and I think Ole Miss can score about 30. That should be all it takes. Then again, this is probably a trap that I'm falling for.
On to Saturday...
My personal lines:
Kansas -10, O/U 64
Cincinnati -13, O/U 61
Wisconsin -1, O/U 47
Bets and why:
Southern Miss Golden Eagles +13.5 -110
It's probably smarter to wait on this one to rise to 14 but with the time constraints I have to deal with I'm just getting in now. Southern Miss has 10 guys back on offense and 9 more on defense and can play with bigger teams. They have an explosive offense that can run and pass and their defense is very strong against the run. The Golden Eagles are not as well known but they are a lot like Kansas and my personal line easily could have been Kansas -7 before I decided to give Kansas a little benefit of the doubt and made it -10. Still value on the underdog regardless.
My personal lines:
Kansas -10, O/U 64
Cincinnati -13, O/U 61
Wisconsin -1, O/U 47
Bets and why:
Southern Miss Golden Eagles +13.5 -110
It's probably smarter to wait on this one to rise to 14 but with the time constraints I have to deal with I'm just getting in now. Southern Miss has 10 guys back on offense and 9 more on defense and can play with bigger teams. They have an explosive offense that can run and pass and their defense is very strong against the run. The Golden Eagles are not as well known but they are a lot like Kansas and my personal line easily could have been Kansas -7 before I decided to give Kansas a little benefit of the doubt and made it -10. Still value on the underdog regardless.
Missouri/Nevada Over 60 -110
This one is not as strong as my Oklahoma State/Houston over but it's close. I'm not pulling the trigger on it being a 2-unit play just yet but it's under consideration. Missouri scores a ton of points when they can run and Nevada has stopped the run like crap against lesser offensive lines. Nevada's offense is very dynamic but has just been plagued by poorly-timed turnovers and the Wolfpack can easily put up 30+ here.
This one is not as strong as my Oklahoma State/Houston over but it's close. I'm not pulling the trigger on it being a 2-unit play just yet but it's under consideration. Missouri scores a ton of points when they can run and Nevada has stopped the run like crap against lesser offensive lines. Nevada's offense is very dynamic but has just been plagued by poorly-timed turnovers and the Wolfpack can easily put up 30+ here.
Kansas/Southern Miss Over 57 -110
This one barely makes the cut for what I'm looking for but it still qualifies. This game will hopefully turn into a track-meet and both teams are very capable of scoring. If Kansas moves the ball even decently then this one should go over because Southern Miss is great at going tit-for-tat with scores.
This one barely makes the cut for what I'm looking for but it still qualifies. This game will hopefully turn into a track-meet and both teams are very capable of scoring. If Kansas moves the ball even decently then this one should go over because Southern Miss is great at going tit-for-tat with scores.
My personal lines:
Buffalo -4, O/U 50
Michigan -13, O/U 47
Northwestern Pick, O/U 50
Bets and why:
Buffalo Bulls +2.5 -110
You could really go money line here if you want. I just went with the spread to keep my records easy. Buffalo is simply better on both sides of the ball and should overcome the road facet. The Bulls have a better quarterback and better passing game and have a comparable running game even without James Starks. Temple has shown they can be beat for points with the pass and that is what Buffalo does best. The way to beat Buffalo for points is to pound the ball with the running game and Temple does not run well. Simple as that.
Indiana Hoosiers +21 -110
I can't believe I'm betting on the Hoosiers so often this season. Okay, first thing I'd like to point out that Michigan's starting center is out for a few weeks. They also are listing their experienced right guard as questionable after dislocating his shoulder. He'll be less than 100% if he plays. Michigan thrives off the run and working new lineman in is going to hurt them. Add that to the fact that Indiana's defensive wall has looked strong so far and I don't think Michigan puts up as many points as in previous games. The Hoosiers' offense is definitely mistake prone but can run and pass and should put up enough points to cover this large spread.
Buffalo -4, O/U 50
Michigan -13, O/U 47
Northwestern Pick, O/U 50
Bets and why:
Buffalo Bulls +2.5 -110
You could really go money line here if you want. I just went with the spread to keep my records easy. Buffalo is simply better on both sides of the ball and should overcome the road facet. The Bulls have a better quarterback and better passing game and have a comparable running game even without James Starks. Temple has shown they can be beat for points with the pass and that is what Buffalo does best. The way to beat Buffalo for points is to pound the ball with the running game and Temple does not run well. Simple as that.
Indiana Hoosiers +21 -110
I can't believe I'm betting on the Hoosiers so often this season. Okay, first thing I'd like to point out that Michigan's starting center is out for a few weeks. They also are listing their experienced right guard as questionable after dislocating his shoulder. He'll be less than 100% if he plays. Michigan thrives off the run and working new lineman in is going to hurt them. Add that to the fact that Indiana's defensive wall has looked strong so far and I don't think Michigan puts up as many points as in previous games. The Hoosiers' offense is definitely mistake prone but can run and pass and should put up enough points to cover this large spread.
do you mind sharing your personal line on the missouri and kansas over picks? The only reason I ask is because I've been keeping track and you're 6-0 on totals where the line difference is 10 or more and 7-2 when the diff is 9 or more. (both your 2 unit plays coming on totals with line diffs of 20 and 20.5)
I had 75 in the Missouri game (actual total I bet was over 60) and 64 in the Kansas game (actual total I bet was over 57).
Both totals have moved since then. Missouri game actual is now 59 (bad move for me) and the Kansas game actual is now 59 (good move for me)
It's generally a slight edge toward being wrong if the early lines go against me like what happened in the Missouri game but it's such a small move that I wouldn't read too much into it.
My personal lines:
UNLV -10, O/U 49
Navy -30, O/U 44
California -9, O/U 67
Bets and why:
UNLV Rebels -4.5 -110
UNLV has the defensive line to shut down Wyoming's running game and that will cap the points the Cowboys are capable of scoring. UNLV can both run and pass and if Wyoming gives up 24 points to a horrible Colorado team then UNLV should be able to do 27-30 which will be enough for the cover.
California/Oregon Over 57.5 -110
I can't understand at all why this one got steamed down from 60 to 56 in the early going but it started to quickly move back up so I won't read too much into it. Just sharps on opposite sides. California can score on anyone and Oregon's defense has not done well against teams who can run and pass. California is strong on both and should put up 30-40 points here. Oregon has struggled a bit but the fact that they've alternated between strong running and weak passing and the opposite of those depending on the game makes me believe they will get it together. They had few returning offensive starters but seem to be improving in recent games and that offense always produces. California gave up 21 to a Minnesota team that has struggled and I think Oregon might get 30 here but at least 24+.
UNLV -10, O/U 49
Navy -30, O/U 44
California -9, O/U 67
Bets and why:
UNLV Rebels -4.5 -110
UNLV has the defensive line to shut down Wyoming's running game and that will cap the points the Cowboys are capable of scoring. UNLV can both run and pass and if Wyoming gives up 24 points to a horrible Colorado team then UNLV should be able to do 27-30 which will be enough for the cover.
California/Oregon Over 57.5 -110
I can't understand at all why this one got steamed down from 60 to 56 in the early going but it started to quickly move back up so I won't read too much into it. Just sharps on opposite sides. California can score on anyone and Oregon's defense has not done well against teams who can run and pass. California is strong on both and should put up 30-40 points here. Oregon has struggled a bit but the fact that they've alternated between strong running and weak passing and the opposite of those depending on the game makes me believe they will get it together. They had few returning offensive starters but seem to be improving in recent games and that offense always produces. California gave up 21 to a Minnesota team that has struggled and I think Oregon might get 30 here but at least 24+.
My predicted lines:
Northern Illinois -10*, O/U 50
Central Michigan -11**, O/U 51
Alabama -13, O/U 67
*Some books have moved to Idaho +17 but none of mine currently have. As soon as it moves (which it's likely to do IMO) I'll be on it at that number and provide reasoning then.
**Also waiting on a +17 but it looks like I missed the number. Best I can find it +16.5 and I don't really see this one moving back to my number. I might settle for +16.5 later in the week. I really want that extra half point on these two games to make them plays. I try to get a touchdown better then my lines on the bigger point spreads.
Bets and why:
Alabama/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110
Alabama still has a dominant running game and they proved they could score against a good defense when they put up 34 against Virginia Tech. Arkansas is not as good as the Hokies and gave up 30+ to LSU and Georgia (52 here) who are comparable offenses. LSU is probably worse and Georgia is about the same as Alabama. Arkansas is in year 2 of Petrino's offense and they have looked incredible. Bama has one of the best D's in the nation but the Razorbacks will put up points on anyone and teams that could both run and pass were able to put up 20+ consistently against a great Bama D last year.
Northern Illinois -10*, O/U 50
Central Michigan -11**, O/U 51
Alabama -13, O/U 67
*Some books have moved to Idaho +17 but none of mine currently have. As soon as it moves (which it's likely to do IMO) I'll be on it at that number and provide reasoning then.
**Also waiting on a +17 but it looks like I missed the number. Best I can find it +16.5 and I don't really see this one moving back to my number. I might settle for +16.5 later in the week. I really want that extra half point on these two games to make them plays. I try to get a touchdown better then my lines on the bigger point spreads.
Bets and why:
Alabama/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110
Alabama still has a dominant running game and they proved they could score against a good defense when they put up 34 against Virginia Tech. Arkansas is not as good as the Hokies and gave up 30+ to LSU and Georgia (52 here) who are comparable offenses. LSU is probably worse and Georgia is about the same as Alabama. Arkansas is in year 2 of Petrino's offense and they have looked incredible. Bama has one of the best D's in the nation but the Razorbacks will put up points on anyone and teams that could both run and pass were able to put up 20+ consistently against a great Bama D last year.
My predicted lines:
Miami -7, O/U 41
Texas -34, O/U 54
TCU -3, O/U 43
Bets and why:
Miami Hurricanes -2.5 -110
Virginia Tech is going to be a huge test for the Miami offense but I think they have enough of a run/pass variation to put up points. One thing that scares me is that Virginia Tech defends the run incredibly and the Hokies are great against the pass this season. That being said, the Hokies' offense can't score when they can't run and Miami has enough athletes and a strong enough defensive line to do well against Tyrod Taylor and friends. Virginia Tech struggled against a weaker Miami team last year and will likely do the same this time around. 14 points from the Hurricanes could just be enough to cover. I think a final score of 24-17 sounds right. Maybe even a bigger deficit.
UTEP/Texas Under 63 -110
Texas will hopefully be happy to pull a Kansas and take advantage of the run here. UTEP has lots of guys back and is solid and hopefully that's enough to keep the Longhorns to about 40-50 because I think that will be enough. UTEP has looked lost on offense this season and last year showed this team has trouble scoring when they don't have the run. Mack Brown usually stops scoring when his team hits 50 or so against these lesser teams.
TCU Horned Frogs +3 -110
The fact of the matter is that Clemson can't score much without the running game and TCU stops the run every year as good as anyone. Clemson has a nice enough defensive front as well but TCU can beat you with the run and the pass and Clemson was beat by a Georgia Tech team that runs somewhat similar to the Horned Frogs. Look for TCU to get the road win here.
Miami -7, O/U 41
Texas -34, O/U 54
TCU -3, O/U 43
Bets and why:
Miami Hurricanes -2.5 -110
Virginia Tech is going to be a huge test for the Miami offense but I think they have enough of a run/pass variation to put up points. One thing that scares me is that Virginia Tech defends the run incredibly and the Hokies are great against the pass this season. That being said, the Hokies' offense can't score when they can't run and Miami has enough athletes and a strong enough defensive line to do well against Tyrod Taylor and friends. Virginia Tech struggled against a weaker Miami team last year and will likely do the same this time around. 14 points from the Hurricanes could just be enough to cover. I think a final score of 24-17 sounds right. Maybe even a bigger deficit.
UTEP/Texas Under 63 -110
Texas will hopefully be happy to pull a Kansas and take advantage of the run here. UTEP has lots of guys back and is solid and hopefully that's enough to keep the Longhorns to about 40-50 because I think that will be enough. UTEP has looked lost on offense this season and last year showed this team has trouble scoring when they don't have the run. Mack Brown usually stops scoring when his team hits 50 or so against these lesser teams.
TCU Horned Frogs +3 -110
The fact of the matter is that Clemson can't score much without the running game and TCU stops the run every year as good as anyone. Clemson has a nice enough defensive front as well but TCU can beat you with the run and the pass and Clemson was beat by a Georgia Tech team that runs somewhat similar to the Horned Frogs. Look for TCU to get the road win here.
